Whats up y’all – Brady Miller here. Some of you may recognize me as the author of the Sway Bar from 2017-2019. Auburn called me to sub in for him this week but don’t worry – he will be back next week! This weekend we are reverting back to the Brady Miller format and I can’t wait.
Jun 27, 2020; Long Pond, Pennsylvania, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Ryan Blaney (12) races to the inside of driver Joey Logano (22) during the Pocono Organics 325 at Pocono Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports
This has all the makings of a super chalky race, so lets dig in and see if we can’t find a few gems.
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Top Plays
Kevin Harvick – Every time I come back to write the Sway Bar it seems like I just tout Harvick and leave. He is just so good. His dominance at Pocono bodes well for him at Indy, and he is the most recent Indy winner. He is leading in just about all my favorite predictive driver ratings, and his 11th place starting spot should give him a little bit of a cushion. Expect him to be 40%+ owned.
Denny Hamlin – Much like Harvick – Hamlins incredible Pocono performances should serve him well this weekend. He has been super fast since the restart, and has an average finish of 2nd over the last four races. While he doesn’t have any Indy wins, his history is top five in the field. His upside is limited since he starts 6th, but he should be top 5 all day and compete for a win. Good chance he leads a good portion too.
Joey Logano – Logano hasn’t had much horse over the last couple weeks, but clean air is king at Indy and that 1st place starting spot is just too good to pass up. You need to be SIGNIFICANTLY better than the car in front of you to pass the leader, and I doubt Joey will have face much of a threat in the first stage. Lots of lead laps and a top five finish likely pushes him into the optimal. I am hoping he goes underowned.
Ryan Blaney – Blaney has been much improved in 2020 and I think alot of that can be attributed to crew chief Todd Gordon – who crew chiefed Joey Logano to a second place here last year. I suspect Blaney will be lightening fast, and starting 12th gives us a little leverage. Top 5 is easily attainable.
Clint Bowyer – Bowyer certainly hasn’t had the speed of his teammate Harvick this year, but he has enough car too push forward from his 22nd place starting spot. He has been pretty good on big tracks, and is coming off back to back 5th place performances at Indy. I suspect a top ten is most probable with top 5 upside. I’ll talk about him a little later, but I was close to putting Erik Jones in this spot.
Fades
I think the following are bottom tier plays are this week
Justin Allgaier
Timmy Hill
Josh Bilicki
BJ McLeod
JJ Yeley
Quin Houff
Garrett Smithley
Brennan Poole
Joey Gase
Value Plays
Michael McDowell – One of my favorite plays this weekend. McDowell starts 27th and has consistently had top 20 speed this year. At the first race at Pocono he ran top ten, and seemed to be stable before finding trouble in the second. While a top ten my be ambitious, I think a top 15 is probable at a track he traditionally runs very well at.
Cole Custer – This is the exact same equipment Harvick has. I refuse to believe Custer can’t pull this car into the top 20. He has run pretty poor this year, and Indy is not one of his better tracks…but he ran well enough last weekend to give me confidence. He is better than he has run this year, and if this is the week he puts it all together he has top ten upside. More realistically, a 15th – 18th place run is what we are looking for. Suarez drove this car to 11th last year.
Ryan Preece – Preece is a top 20 car starting 36th. Its a simple as that. He ran 16th – 18th here last year and the car is about the same. I suspect the same run and a probable optimal appearance for Preece.
Other Notables
Erik Jones – Jones should drive forward from his 23rd start spot pretty easily. He has a 2nd place finish here in the past, but thats back when Toyotas were lighting fast. Still a great play. Will likely be pretty chalky.
Christopher Bell – Starting 35th, Bell obviously deserves some exposure – as he showed he is capable of running top ten last week at Pocono. There is two things giving me pause here. The first is his price – we need a top ten to go 5x. Secondly, Indy was about the only track where Bell never really shined in the Xfinity series. I still think hes a fine play, I am just not crazy about this price.
So there you have it. Make sure you check out the Cheat Sheet as well! Good luck and stay cashing.