Hello everyone and welcome to the Sway Bar! This season I will be taking over the Sway Bar article and putting a couple of spins on it. I will be focusing largely on the RS and how to manipulate it to find our top plays. This week we go to Pocono for the Organics 325. I hope you enjoy it! As always, you can find me in Slack any day of the week, or on Twitter @AUFan30 if you have any questions!
Jul 28, 2019; Long Pond, PA, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin raises the winners trophy in victory lane after winning the Gander RV 400 at Pocono Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports
Tracks Tab
The first section we will look at is the Tracks tab of the RS. This tab will tell us exactly what stats we are looking for regarding Pocono Raceway. If we find Pocono Raceway under the “Track Name” section, we find the info we need about the track.
This tab also tells us very important stats regarding previous scores on this track. The next section I will look at is the “Avg Green Flag Run %”. This section shows us if a race is filled with wrecks, or if there is a steady run. The more wrecks there are, the better the cheap punts will be as they can move up easier, hence why we load up on them at tracks like Daytona and Talladega. However, if a race stays green, this helps our mid-tier and stud drivers who have place differential upside or dominator upside. As we see in this section, Pocono Raceway ranks as the fourteenth-best track of all tracks with a 10.60% Avg Green Flag Run rating. This will help our studs.
Next, we will look at the “Avg Pole Laps Led” section. In this section, we are focusing on our pole-sitter. This race’s pole-sitter is Aric Almirola. When we look at the Avg Pole Laps Led section, we see that this track is not great for pole-sitters in terms of laps led, ranking 17th with an average of 36.5 laps led for pole-sitters. Combine that with this being a short race (only 130 laps!) and we don’t see a massive need to load up on dominators here.
The other consideration we have for choosing dominators is fast laps. Therefore, the next section we will look at is the “Avg Pole Fast Laps” section. Here we see that this track ranks 19th for fast laps with an average of 17.1 fast laps. Again, given that this race only has 130 laps, we will not look to load up on dominators.
We also want to take a look at how our Top 10 and our back of the pack guys rate out here. If we look at the “Avg DK FP % Top 10” section, we see that Pocono ranks 20th with a rating of 3.0%. For FanDuel, we see that Pocono ranks 20th with a rating of 4.3%. When we look at the “Avg DK FP % 30th+” section, we see that Pocono ranks 4th with a rating of 2.1%. For FanDuel, we see that Pocono ranks 21st with a rating of 2.5%.
Track Types Tab
The track types section is fairly straightforward to read and understand. This section tells us which track types drivers are best at. We already know that Pocono is a 2.5-Mile Large/Flat track (see the screenshot in the Tracks Tab section), so that is the section we will focus on here. When we look at this section, we notice that Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch absolutely dominate these types of tracks. Kevin Harvick has an average driver rating of 113.2 on these tracks. We also see that Kyle Busch has an average driver rating of 116.3.
We can also use this section to see what mid-tier drivers are solid here as well. We will focus primarily on the “Vs Avg” section for them. Here, we notice that Jones (10%) and Byron (6%) are noticeably better on these tracks than other ones on the schedule. Let’s take note of these guys as we further our research.
DK Averages By Start
We can learn a lot about historical scores based on where a driver starts to see how many points they may score. This is mainly a GPP stat. To find this information, we navigate toward the “DKAvgByStart” tab on the Research Station. We will start by looking at our studs.
We see here, based on sample size, that studs starting 1 – 5 tend to score the best for us. This would be guys like Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Chase Elliott.
From the Mid-Tier range, we see drivers starting 31 – 35 score the best for us. The lone driver here would be Ty Dillon. Very notable with Christopher Bell here starting 36th as well.
Finally from the Scrubs range, we see drivers starting 31 – 35 actually score the best for us. This would include Garrett Smithley, Quin Houff, JJ Yeley, and James Davison.
These stats are not indicative of how a driver is expected to perform. These stats are solely for basing a historical average of scores, but are a great visual for what we’ve seen historically!
FD Averages By Start
We can learn a lot about historical scores based on where a driver starts to see how many points they may score. This is mainly a GPP stat. To find this information, we navigate toward the “FDAvgByStart” tab on the Research Station. We will start by looking at our studs.
From the Studs range, we see that studs starting 1 – 5 score the best here. This would be drivers such as Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Chase Elliott.
From the Mid-Tier range, we see drivers starting 1 – 5 score the best for us. This would include the lone Aric Almirola.
Finally, from the Scrubs tier, we see that Scrubs starting 31 – 35 by far score the best for us. These drivers would include Garrett Smithley, Quin Houff, JJ Yeley, and James Davison.
DraftKings/FanDuel Tabs
Normally, the first section I would want to look at in the DraftKings tab is the “Practice 2” section. I weigh Practice 2 speeds slightly more as these speeds are the closest we will see them be to the actual race. However, due to COVID-19 precautions, we will not be having practices for now. Therefore, we will have to rely on track history, projections, and Vegas odds.
The first section I really want to look at is the “Average Finish” section. This section will show us where drivers have finished over the average throughout the course of their respective careers. One driver that really stands out to me here is Brad Keselowski. Long term for Pocono, he averages a finish of 7.4. With a projected 18% ownership, there may be some merit to sprinkle him around in GPP based on his long term success at Pocono. We also have chalk master himself Kevin Harvick with an average finish of 7.5. Harvick will rightfully be chalk this weekend.
The next section I want to touch on is the “Results” section. In this section, we see what % of the time drivers finish in certain positions. For example, over the last 26 races at Pocono, Kyle Busch has finished in the Top 5 50% of the time. For me, the driver that really stands out here is Kevin Harvick. Harvick has finished in the Top 10, over his last 26 races at Pocono, a whopping 81% of the time. As we mentioned under his Track Types tab, we already know he’s really good here.
Another section I like to focus on is the “Odds” section. Here, we get to see what the bettors of Vegas expect this race to be like (and they know a thing or two). Here we see that Kyle Busch is the favorite to win this race at 5.5. As mentioned before, we know he finishes extremely highly here often, so that should come as no surprise. Kevin Harvick is the second favorite to win at 7.5. This is largely due to recent form, as we see long term wise, he’s a fairly average driver here. Denny Hamlin comes in super cheap this weak, has a win in his last 5 here, and 3 Top 5’s and is the third odds on favorite at 8 for this race. That’s a driver I have a ton of interest in.
NillyJay’s NASCAR Tools
The final thing we want to do when getting ready to set up the DS is to check out NillyJay’s NASCAR tools. Nilly has made a Lineup Projector that you can use to project how a cash lineup you’ve built would score. For example, let’s just plug in some guys real quick. In the lineup projector, you have to make your own projections that you can insert into the boxes and customize yourself based on how you believe the race will go! The “Target for 25%” is the number we want our lineup to hit for cash lineups, and the “Target for 33%” is the number we want our lineups to hit for GPP’s. I use this tool EVERY SINGLE RACE and HIGHLY RECOMMEND you do as well. Take advantage of what you’re already paying for!
Finally, Nilly has a Race Calculator that details everything we need to know about this track for both sites. We see for DraftKings purposes, Nilly recommends 0 – 1 dominator, while on FanDuel, 0 – 1 dominator are recommended for this race. Therefore, in the DS, I would set a rule under the “Dominator Stacking Options” of “At most 1 players”. We also see this race has a Medium cash game risk, which is about average in NASCAR.
DraftKings
Top Studs
- Kevin Harvick $10,100
- Ryan Blaney $9,000
- Martin Truex Jr. $9,700
Top Mid-Tier Plays
- Erik Jones $7,100
- William Byron $8,400
- Tyler Reddick $7,400
Top GPP Pivots
- Brad Keselowski $9,900
- Clint Bowyer $9,500
- Chase Elliott $10,700
Note: You may notice two higher owned drivers that I didn’t mention: Kyle Busch and Christopher Bell. Looking back at previous years’ stats, Kyle Busch was among the most practice laps taken by any driver, and that I believe is largely attributing to why he hasn’t given us any Kyle Busch numbers since this COVID has started. Ryan Blaney has been a top 2 car all year long and I don’t see that changing, as he’s been very good on large tracks to start this season and is cheaper than Kyle Busch. I’m putting all my Kyle Busch shares into Ryan Blaney, but do understand Kyle Busch can dominate this race as historically he is the king of this track.
For Christopher Bell, this price is justified, but still a bit much for me. He hasn’t adapted to the newer package well and I believe a 20th place finish is more likely than a 10th place finish. Even with a 15th place finish, he scores around 50 fantasy points (no lead laps or fast laps calculated) which won’t be enough at this price I don’t think.
FanDuel
Top Studs
- Kevin Harvick $14,000
- Denny Hamlin $13,000
- Martin Truex Jr. $12,500
Top Mid-Tier Plays
- Christopher Bell $8,000
- Erik Jones $10,000
- Tyler Reddick $8,400
Top GPP Pivots
- Brad Keselowski $11,400
- Joey Logano $12,000
- Alex Bowman $10,600
Be sure to check out Larkin, Taco, and Nilly on the coaches’ sheets for full slate driver-by-driver breakdowns as well!!
That’ll do it for this week’s The Sway Bar! If you enjoyed, please give me a follow on Twitter @AUFan30, or let me know in Slack! If you know of anyone interested in joining the DFS Army, be sure to tell them to use my link https://wp.dfsarmy.com/ref/99/ and use code “AU30” at checkout for 20% their monthly VIP/BTB membership! Can’t wait to see those helmets crushing tournaments this week!