Hello everyone and welcome to the Sway Bar! This season I will be taking over the Sway Bar article and putting a couple of spins on it. I will be focusing largely on the RS and how to manipulate it to find our top plays. This week we go to Bristol for the Supermarket Heroes 500. I hope you enjoy it! You can find me in Slack any day of the week, or on Twitter @AUFan30 if you have any questions!
May 20, 2020, Darlington, SC, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Chase Elliott (9) makes a pit stop during the Toyota 500. Mandatory Credit: Brynn Anderson/Pool Photo via USA TODAY Network
Tracks Tab
The first section we will look at is the Tracks tab of the RS. This tab will tell us exactly what stats we are looking for regarding Phoenix International Raceway. If we find Phoenix International Raceway under the “Track Name” section, we find the info we need about the track.
This tab also tells us very important stats regarding previous scores on this track. The next section I will look at is the “Avg Green Flag Run %”. This section shows us if a race is filled with wrecks, or if there is a steady run. The more wrecks there are, the better the cheap punts will be as they can move up easier, hence why we load up on them at tracks like Daytona and Talladega. However, if a race stays green, this helps our mid-tier and stud drivers who have place differential upside or dominator upside. As we see in this section, Bristol Motor Speedway ranks as the twenty-fourth worst track of all tracks with a 7.8% Avg Green Flag Run rating. This will help our punts slightly.
Next, we will look at the “Avg Pole Laps Led” section. In this section, we are really focusing on our pole-sitter. This week’s pole-sitter is Brad Keselowski. When we look at the Avg Pole Laps Led section, we see that this track is in the middle for pole-sitters in terms of laps led, ranking 9th with an average of 91.4 laps led for pole-sitters.
The other consideration we have for choosing dominators is fast laps. Therefore, the next section we will look at is the “Avg Pole Fast Laps” section. Here we see that this track ranks 7th for fast laps with an average of 32.9 fast laps.
We also want to take a look at how our Top 10 and our back of the pack guys rate out here. If we look at the “Avg DK FP % Top 10” section, we see that Bristol ranks 11th with a rating of 3.2%. For FanDuel, we see that Phoenix ranks 2nd with a rating of 6.2%. When we look at the “Avg DK FP % 30th+” section, we see that Bristol ranks 9th with a rating of 2.0%. For FanDuel, we see that Bristol ranks 2nd with a rating of 4.5%.
Track Types Tab
The track types section is fairly straightforward to read and understand. This section tells us which track types drivers are best at. We already know that Bristol is a 0.5-Mile Short/Steep track (see the screenshot in the Tracks Tab section), so that is the section we will focus on here. When we look at this section, we notice that Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Martin Truex absolutely dominate these types of tracks. Kyle Busch has an average driver rating of 105.2 on these tracks. Kevin Harvick has an average driver rating of 106.2 on short/steep tracks. We also see that Truex has an average driver rating of 104.4. We also see Jones, Johnson, and DiBenedetto really pop here, all with an average driver rating of considerably higher than other mid-tier drivers around them.
We can also use this section to see what mid-tier drivers are solid here as well. We will focus primarily on the “Vs Avg” section for them. Here, we notice that Jones, Johnson, and DiBenedetto are noticeably better on these tracks than other ones on the schedule. Let’s take note of these guys as we further our research.
Averages By Start
With normal conditions, scoring based on starting position matter. However, at short tracks, anything goes. Therefore, this week we will be bypassing this section.
DraftKings/FanDuel Tabs
Normally, the first section I would want to look at in the DraftKings tab is the “Practice 2” section. I weigh Practice 2 speeds slightly more as these speeds are the closest we will see them be to the actual race. However, due to COVID-19 precautions, we will not be having practices for now. Therefore, we will have to rely on track history, projections, and Vegas odds.
The first section I really want to look at is the “Average Finish” section. This section will show us where drivers have finished over the average throughout the course of their respective careers. One driver that really stands out to me here is Matt Kenseth. Long term for Bristol, he averages a finish of 8.9. With a projected 13% ownership, there may be some merit to sprinkle him around in GPP based off his long term success at Bristol, but do keep in mind this is a completely different car and team than he’s ever raced with, and that has a big impact on how drivers perform.
The next section I want to touch on is the “Results” section. In this section, we see what % of the time drivers finish in certain positions. For example, over his last 23 races, Kyle Busch has finished in the Top 5 61% of the time. For me, the driver that really stands out here is Kevin Harvick. Harvick has finished in the Top 10, over his last 23 races, a whopping 91% of the time. As we mentioned under his Track Types tab, we already know he’s really good here.
Another section I like to focus on is the “Odds” section. Here, we get to see what the bettors of Vegas expect this race to be like (and they know a thing or two). Here we see that Kyle Busch is the heavy favorite to win this race. As mentioned before, we know he finishes extremely highly here often, so that should come as no surprise. Interestingly enough, Chase Elliott is the second favorite to win, even at a track we know Harvick, Busch, and Truex tend to fight each other for. This is largely due to recent form, as we see long term wise, he’s a fairly average driver here. One interesting thing to take note of is that Denny Hamlin, defending Bristol winner, actually has better odds (as of the time of this writing) at a Top 10 than Kevin Harvick himself, and very similar odds to win. Hamlin will be much lower owned, so it may be worth taking a few GPP shots with him here. We also see how much higher Erik Jones’ odds are than anyone around him in his price range. Take note of that when constructing your driver pool.
The final section I want to look into is the “Projections” section. Here, @taco has made manual projections for each driver, and he’s extremely spot on with his projections. The big thing I noticed when looking at these projections was the fact that Martin Truex Jr. is projected for 10% less ownership than Brad Keselowski, yet projected for more points. DO keep in mind, as we see in our Tracks section, Bristol is very kind to those running up front, and in particular pole sitters. However, we know Truex is extremely good at these short tracks, and if we see him at reduced ownership, it may be worth attacking it.
NillyJay’s NASCAR Tools
The final thing we want to do when getting ready to set up the DS is check out NillyJay’s NASCAR tools. Nilly has made a Lineup Projector that you can use to project how a cash lineup you’ve built would score. For example, let’s just plug in some guys real quick. In the lineup projector, you have to make your own projections that you can insert into the boxes and customize yourself based on how you believe the race will go! The “Target for 25%” is the number we want our lineup to hit for cash lineups, and the “Target for 33%” is the number we want our lineups to hit for GPP’s.
Finally, Nilly has a Race Calculator that details everything we need to know about this track for both sites. We see for DraftKings purposes, Nilly recommends 2 – 3 dominators, while on FanDuel, 1 – 2 dominators are recommended for this race. Therefore, in the DS, I would set a rule under the “Dominator Stacking Options” of “At most 3 players”. We also see this race has a medium/high cash game risk, likely due to the number of wrecks or DNF’s we see at Bristol historically.
DraftKings
Top Studs
- Kyle Busch $12,500
- Brad Keselowski $9,100
- Chase Elliott $11,300
Top Mid-Tier Plays
- Christopher Bell $7,300
- Bubba Wallace $7,500
- Kurt Busch $8,300
Top GPP Pivots
- Joey Logano $10,700
- Ryan Blaney $8,600
- Matt Kenseth $8,100
FanDuel
Top Studs
- Jimmie Johnson $10,000
- Kyle Busch $14,000
- Kevin Harvick $12,200
Top Mid-Tier Plays
- Clint Bowyer $9,000
- Christopher Bell $6,000
- Matt DiBenedetto $8,300
Top GPP Pivots
- Kurt Busch $10,600
- Matt Kenseth $8,000
- Alex Bowman $11,400
Be sure to check out Larkin, Taco, and Nilly on the coaches’ sheets for full slate driver-by-driver breakdowns as well!!
That’ll do it for this week’s The Sway Bar! If you enjoyed, please give me a follow on Twitter @AUFan30, or let me know in Slack! If you know of anyone interested in joining the DFS Army, be sure to tell them to use my link https://wp.dfsarmy.com/ref/99/ and use code “AU30” at checkout for 20% their monthly VIP/BTB membership! Can’t wait to see those helmets crushing tournaments this week!