Welcome everyone to the NASCAR Cup Series DFS Preview. For this edition, we will take a look at the upcoming NASCAR Cup Series race at Bristol Motor Speedway. This article is brought to you by DFSArmy.com and written by Ryan Larkin. Become a VIP member!! Sign up and use code LARKIN to save 20%!! You can catch up with Ryan on twitter or in the DFSA VIP slack @Larkin8
Bristol Motor Speedway
The NASCAR Cup Series makes its first short track stop of the 2020 season at Bristol. This will also be the first race at Bristol using the 2020 version of the short track rules package that NASCAR implemented during the off season. This rules package is set up to race like how the cars did in 2018. Smaller spoiler and splitter are the main differences from last year. Traction compound will be added to the bottom four feet of the turns. This is to help the inside line as much as possible. On restarts, the outside line is the preferred grove while the inside line is basically a guarantee for a driver to lose positions. Teams will again be racing without a single lap of practice and no qualifying this week. This will certainly make things more difficult to predict. The starting lineup was decided by a random draw with Brad Keselowski getting the pole. We should expect a competition caution early in the race.
Date: May 31st
Race: Sunday 3:30 pm ET.
Laps: 500 Stages:150/250/500
Defending Champion: Kyle Busch
AVG. # of Cautions: 9 excluding stage breaks
AVG DNF’s: 8 per race
For the Bristol race teams have selected their pit stalls based on how Thursday’s race at Charlotte ended. That gave Chase Elliott pit stall number 1. Other notables with good pit stalls include Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, and Ryan Blaney. It is important to remember that Bristol is the only track with essentially two separate pit lanes. Under green flag conditions, teams only have to enter and exit on their side of pit lane. Under caution, teams must enter in turn two and follow the apron all the away to the turn one exit of the front stretch pit lane.
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Bristol is one of the toughest races for DraftKings. We usually see 2-3 and some times even 4 dominators who lead 70+ laps. There have been 11 such drivers over the last 3 races. Predicting these drivers is key this week and also difficult considering we have no practice or qualifying info to go off of. The Penske cars of Blaney, Keselowski and Joey Logano have combined to lead 819 laps over the last four Bristol races. With Keselowski starting from the pole position we have to consider him one of the favorites to dominate, especially early. Thankfully pricing is back to normal for this race and we can go back to a traditional way of building lineups.
Favorite Stud Play: Brad Keselowski $9,00
Starts from Pole and will have the early advantage to get some laps led and fast laps. Led 40+ laps in 3 of the last 4 Bristol races. I expect his recent history to drive ownership down some as well.
Filling out the lineup
Since we are looking at much of our salary being focused on having multiple dominators, we will need to find value deep in the field to help fill out our lineups. Christopher Bell starting 35th at $7,300 is likely to be one of the highest owned drivers on the slate. He is a great play. Bubba Wallace at $7,500 starting 36th is another driver that will see a lot of attention. We will of course want to attack these drivers but it is important to find other drivers who we can pivot to at low ownership. Austin Dillon sticks out a lot this week at $6,300. He has finished top 15 in 8 of 12 career Bristol starts. From 20th on the grid that is a good place. Also, playing some pure punts is in play this week as we normally see 6-10 DNFs in a Bristol race. They can be great salary savers and actually offer good value thanks to place differential points.
Favorite Value Play: Christopher Bell $7,300
Starts 35th and is driving for the team that Matt Dibenedetto finished 2nd here with last fall. Top 10 upside with tons of positive place differential to go along with it.
For FanDuel we are going to play it very similar to DK this week. The points for laps led will be a lot more important. We will have nearly 300 more laps available than in the last race at Charlotte. If a driver lead 150+ laps will finish inside the top 5 they will have a huge edge over the rest of the field. Wallace and Bell are both priced so low on FanDuel that it opens up the rest of your lineups to build how you want. They are the top plays of the race and will likely go under owned as most drivers starting in the back tend to be on FanDuel. Outside of the doms, we will look to get the highest finishing drivers possible. Clint Bowyer is a fantastic play for this starting 23rd and having scored four straight top 10s at the track.
Favorite Overall Play: Jimmie Johnson $10,000
Starts 24th and has finished 11th or better in 9 of his last 11 Bristol races. Also, he has 5 top 5s in that stretch. While he has fallen off at many tracks the last couple of years, Johnson has retained his ability to get around Bristol.
NASCAR on SuperDraft
We are two weeks into NASCAR on SuperDraft and already we have shown that we are the ones to beat. We were all over the top of the leaderboards with Shaptown88 leading the way across all the contests. For this race, we are going to really look into two areas. Laps completed and Laps led. SuperDraft offers .2 of a point for every lap led. If a driver hits 150 then they score 30 additional points which are then multiplied by their multiplier. This can result in a huge score for some drivers. The other aspect to really attack is laps completed and place differential. Important to remember drivers often end up numerous laps down in the back. We will look to spread ownership around as well since Bristol sees a few wrecks. Of course, I will be giving my breakdown on every driver in the field in our DFS Army NASCAR Cheat Sheets.
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