Hello again Army, and welcome to this weekend’s Calming the Chaos! We head up to Bristol next, where we switch gears over to one of our beloved short tracks. These little tracks are always a handful, so let’s see how we can make the most of it.
As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet. If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.
Bristol Motor Speedway
Jun 12, 2016; Brooklyn, MI, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Joey Logano (22) races Sprint Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin (11) during the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
As I mentioned, we’re back to some short track racing (cue the Denny Hamlin meme), so that means a few things will change. For starters, we have a whopping 500 laps at this race, which is the most we’ll see of any race on the season. Dominators are a premium here, and it’ll be crucial to get them dialed in.
No silly salaries this time!
The salaries over on DraftKings return to normal this week, but a lot of our dominator options are expensive, so we’ll still need to spend up. Two dominators would be my target for general purposes this week, and you can consider three of them on some DraftKings lineups, as well as a few solo dominator lineups on either site (I would make the fewest number of those). The normal “early/mid/late race” options aren’t at critical here, since there are so many laps and the fact that we generally see plenty of lead changes. A lot will depend on when pit stops happen, and it can be hard to predict when/how they will play out, so I wouldn’t worry so much about where somebody starts, and focus more on their raw dominator potential.
The Field
Dominators
Keselowski will be a standard option here, starting on the pole with his teammates right behind him. He’s dominated 3 of the last 4 races, ranging from 40 to 91 laps led. This will be his first time having the pole here, and these Penske cars have looked pretty sharp lately, so I don’t see why he couldn’t grab a healthy chunk to kick this thing off.
After that, Kyle Busch and Elliott deserve some consideration, as they could both see 100+ laps led. Harvick/Truex are just a tick behind them, and after that, I would consider Logano/Blaney. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to try some mini-Penske stacks by taking two of either Keselowski, Logano, or Blaney.
Studs / value studs
Johnson and Bowyer offer some place differential, top-5 upside, and even some lead lap potential. They’re not exactly cheap (thanks to being spike last week), but do offer ways to pay off their salaries, so don’t be shy.
Bowman has steadily improved at this track, and with how he’s looked as of late, I think this could be a good time for him to really shine. While I do think he can lead some laps, I’d be inclined more to use him as a stud here, rather than treat him like a dominator. In other words, don’t run him out as a solo dom option. Kurt is very similar, but I do like Bowman just a bit more.
Jones is up there with them too, and had a dominant performance here back in 2017. I would use him the same as the other two. Byron is in play as well, and his salary is nice and low again. I like him on both sites, but maybe a little more on FanDuel since people will probably go for the other options first (he may have a harder time outscoring both Wallace and Bell for the salary on DraftKings).
Bell looks like a good default option in this price range, starting 35th, and I would probably favor him a little over Wallace starting 36th. Reddick seems to be a threat every race, and makes a very good pivot to those two, as you can pay up a little to be different. Stenhouse finally had a good race, so we know he’s capable, but if you’re playing cash games, I’d probably look at Bell or Reddick first.
Editor’s Note – Our VIPs are likely well aware our NASCAR Research Station has all the statistics you need to narrow your plays and put nifty twists and turns on the Domination Station’s Projections. Remember, climbing to the tops of the leaderboards rewards those who drive their own car. Use DFS Army tools and coaches as your pit crew!
Value / punts
Preece is my favorite in this range, starting 33rd and being a bit under-priced for his ceiling. Ty Dillon is up there with him too, as this is one of those tracks where his ceiling is in the top-15 range. Both of these would be my higher-ceiling options here.
Austin Dillon has higher finishing position upside, though he does start 20th, which will probably keep him even with those two. Still, he’s underpriced, and would make a solid target (or pivot) in all formats. Mix and match these drivers, as they offer a lot of upside for the money.
For down low, I’d look at Poole and maybe Hill, but I’d be careful here. The laps go very fast, and the clunkers will be at a big disadvantage here. I’d prefer to pay up for a value driver instead of a punt this week, as you’re not really spending that much more, but are getting a whole lot more floor/ceiling out of them.
Closing thoughts
The main thing is to remember that this race is a lot different than what we’ve had at Charlotte, so build accordingly. Decide on your dominators first, as they will be the most important part of your lineups here. There are a lot of good pivots to shuffle in the low/mid-range, so trying to build a little more balanced instead of stars & scrubs might be the way to go. Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!