The Match Participants:

Tiger Woods/Peyton Manning

Current odds to win: -190

Tiger Woods: Arguably the greatest golfer to ever play the game. He should be at a huge advantage here on his home course where he holds the course record. Prior to the pandemic, shuttering the PGA Tour, Tiger was playing some decent golf. 9th at the Farmers, and 68th at the Genesis. He’s done a bunch of media in the last few weeks and says his game is in good shape. It may be a little concerning that he shot plus 1 on the front 9 of his practice round with Manning on Friday, but I think he’s clearly the best golfer in this match.

Peyton Manning: The former NFL quarterback is the third-best golfer in this match with a recorded handicap of 6. On this course that translates to about a 9, meaning that on average he will shoot a score of 81 here. He’s retired now with not much to do but golf, and his handicap index confirms that with 20 recorded rounds last year. He’s a legitimate 6 handicap unlike his counterpart in this matchup. Manning absolutely carried Luke Donald to a top 10 finish at this year’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He also put in some serious work this week with Tiger and Rickie Fowler at Medalist practicing…check out this scorecard where he shot a net (handicapped included) +1 with two birdies.

Phil Mickelson/Tom Brady

Current odds to win: +175

Phil Mickelson: Phil the Thrill has lost a ton of weight and got into just fantastic shape. He’s also cultivated an unreal social media presence with his fireside chats. All that being said, it hasn’t translated into solid golf for him. Stateside this year he has missed 4 of 5 cuts. The one cut he made he finished 3rd at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, a course he’s dominated over the years. I never like to count Phil out in a game played for lots of money (albeit for charity), especially with the likely side bets, but I’m concerned about the overall state of his game, and more so concerned with his partner. If he was with Manning the odds would be much closer, but as it stands right now, he’s a pretty big dog at +175 (or worse on some books).

Tom Brady: Brady is the fakest 8 handicap I’ve ever seen. Brady saying he’s an 8 right now is like me saying, “Yeah I shot 66 the other day!” and not telling you it was on Tiger Woods PGA Tour 2007. Brady’s handicap index goes way back to 2014 with his ‘recent scores’ that it includes in his rating. Those scores of 82/83 really keep his handicap down. For reference he has one recorded score in 2020, and 86 back in April. He recorded 10 scores last year with most in the high 80’s/low 90’s. He also has a score from Medalist, the host of this event, in March of last year… a 106, yuck. Brady’s a competitor and has played good golf in the past. Having this being ‘match play’ definitely benefits him as he doesn’t have to worry about making a big score and can be a little more aggressive. The issue though is that his partner isn’t playing great golf either.

ThriveFantasy Props

While technically there are only 10 props on ThriveFantasy for this event, there are actually 20 when you consider that you can take each side of that prop. While typically we only have to choose 5 props, for this event we need to choose 7 because it is only two groups on the course. It’s important if you are building more than one lineup to consider playing both sides of some of these props as often times they are close to 50/50 and I will point out which ones I think you should get action on both sides of below.

Our goal is for our lineup to have enough upside to win the contest, but not so much risk that we are dead if we miss one prop. A good rule of thumb is you want around 700 points or 100 points a prop. My assumption is we see the winning lineup somewhere around 700-750 points, though 800 is possible if things swing the right way.

For each prop I will give my confidence rating. Five ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐= my most confident/favorite props. One ⭐my least confident/favorite. 

Team Phil UNDER 68.5 Strokes – 110 Points ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Team Tiger UNDER 67.5 Strokes – 120 Points ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I’m combining these two props right off the bat because they are both locked into every single lineup I’m building for this event. As I mentioned above, the odds of them even getting to the 18th hole are not great, and the reality is that even if they do, they could STILL be under these scores.

The DraftKings sportsbook currently has the event finishing on holes 15-17 as a -110 favorite, while 18th or Extra holes is a +160 dog so the betting odds support this viewpoint.

We also need to consider that this is Match Play and the score of the losing team on the hole doesn’t really matter. For example, if Tiger makes a birdie and Phil/Brady are both looking at 20 footers for par they won’t be putting those out like they would have to in stroke play. The hole will be conceded with Tiger/Peyton making a 3 and Phil/Brady being put down for a 4 when in reality they probably would have made a 5 because 20 footers aren’t very easy to make.

All those things combined have me extremely confident that we see both teams with final scores of under their respective and I’ll be locking these props into every lineup.

Team Phil OVER .5 Eagles – 130 points ⭐⭐⭐ Team Phil UNDER .5 Eagles – 70 points ⭐⭐

DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the odds that either team makes an eagle at +400, which isn’t great obviously, but I do think there is some cause for optimism here and I’ll tell you why.

1. The par 5’s aren’t crazy long and are absolutely gettable. It will take some luck, but if Brady plays the par 5 third well, he could make a birdie net eagle here. I like Peyton’s chances of doing that better though.
2. There are two driveable par 4’s. We know Phil can be very aggressive on some of these holes with the driver and he has a chance to smoke one and if the putter is rolling it could be money.

The under is probably the smart play, but as I said in the video above, I’m not trying to just min-cash this event and with you having to play essentially every single prop they have but two (the hole in one prop is a no no), I don’t mind taking my chances on the over here.

Team Tiger OVER .5 Eagles – 125 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Team Tiger UNDER .5 Eagles – 75 points ⭐⭐⭐

For all the reasons I stated above, I think that this prop is definitely in play, and I like Tiger’s side of it quite a bit more mostly because I think Peyton is the superior golfer to Brady and with him getting a bump on the third hole, I’ll be hoping for a birdie net eagle. I’ll have plenty of the under though as well as a safety net because those 5 points more you get for a Team Tiger Under actually could make a difference when it’s all said and done.

Team Phil OVER 3.5 Birdies – 80 points ⭐⭐⭐ Team Phil UNDER 3.5 Birdies – 120 points ⭐⭐⭐

I actually like both sides of this prop but lean towards the under. I think Brady is no good at golf, and Phil just really isn’t that good anymore either. It may be a stretch for them to pile up 4 birdies here, especially if we consider that they may not even play all 18 holes. If this thing ends on 15 or 16 there’s a good chance that the losing team doesn’t make more than 3 birdies. Alternate shot also brings into play bogeys, especially when you consider the strength of your partner. I lean the under here for the value you get with the 120 points.

Team Tiger OVER 4.5 Birdies- 105 points ⭐⭐⭐ Team Tiger UNDER 4.5 Birdies – 95 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Here’s my thought process…if this event goes 18 holes, then Tiger/Peyton will likely have more than 4.5 birdies. Anything less though and I probably want the under as 4 birdies should be enough to wrap up Phil/Brady. I think we see a decent amount of holes (2-3) won with par as well so that eliminates the ‘need’ for birdies. Since this is a charity event, made for tv, with amateurs, I don’t think we see the full teeth of Medalist, but even so, this isn’t an easy course. For what it’s worth they made 4 birdies in their practice round.

Team Phil UNDER 11.5 Pars – 100 Points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I won’t even be touching the other side of this prop. I’m operating under the narrative here though that Phil and Brady lose and that they are closed out before 18. If they lose, they likely make some bogeys which hurts this total. If they are competitive, they need to make birdies, which hurts this total. If you think that they win, then you should be hitting the over here.

Team Tiger OVER 11.5 Pars- 115 Points ⭐⭐⭐ Team Tiger UNDER 11.5 Pars – 85 points ⭐⭐⭐

I like the under here because I think Tiger/Peyton make enough birdies and close this thing out early. It’s possible that they win it with pars, but not as likely. I just wish that we were getting more value on the under because 85 points aren’t enough to get me all tingly inside. The over is in play if you think this goes 18 holes, and you should be building a lineup or two with that scenario.

Team Phil UNDER 12.5 Bogeys/Pars – 125 Points ⭐⭐⭐ Team Phil OVER 12.5 Bogeys/Pars – 75 Points ⭐⭐⭐

Man, that under is really juicy here. If you are REALLY confident that Phil and TB12 get closed out early (like say 15th hole, and even then it’s risky) then I think you jump on it. Otherwise you can just take the points for the over, even though 75 points aren’t really sexy. I have zero confidence in Phil/Brady to get this done, but I think they at least make it a bit more competitive than being cashed by the 14th or 15th hole.

Team Tiger OVER .5 Hole in One- 195 Points ⭐ Team Tiger UNDER .5 Hole in One – 10 points ⭐

Neither side of this makes any sense. I’m fading this prop completely. If Tiger or Peyton miraculously make a hole in one, I’ll gladly lose all my money.

Final Thoughts: 

While I have provided some pretty in-depth coverage for this event, and I truly believe there is money to made here, don’t go nuts. This is still a made-for-tv charity event so crazy stuff can happen (I mean they are playing one hole with only one club for god sakes). See it for what it is, have some fun, and let’s make some cash!

I’ll be in our coaching channels periodically for the next 24 hours until this event tees off if you have any questions!