BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN 9 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card in Vegas that will have no fans in attendance due to the pandemic. DraftKings has some amazing contests for us to win a bunch of money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $150k goes to 1st place with a total of $600k being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and mainly chase that $150k. I will probably throw a handful of lineups in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Chris Gutierrez $8,300 vs Vincent Morales $7,900
Chris Gutierrez
Age: 29
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Factory X Muay Thai
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 121
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -110
Chris Gutierrez put another win on the board in his third UFC appearance. He won a split decision over Geraldo de Freitas in a competitive fight. Gutierrez is a good striker. He has very good defensive movement & likes to fight on the counter. He has nice round & oblique kicks to the legs. He will throw nice check left hooks & one-twos. He is good at throwing the left hook while moving backwards. He will throw nice front kicks to the body. He will blitz forward with straight punches to close the distance. He has a nice front leg, round kick to the head. He has a very nice spinning backfist. He will throw nice spinning back kicks to the body & head. Gutierrez is very fast & is always feinting. He keeps fighters off balance & is very hard to read on the feet. He can get backed to the cage & allow opponents to control the center at times. He has 6 career KO/TKO’s & good durability never being finished by strikes.
Gutierrez is an average grappler. He is a questionable defensive wrestler and doesn’t wrestle offensively. He is solid in the clinch. He will look for hard knees to the body. He can be taken down, but he has solid get-ups. He has been out grappled to losses vs fighters such as Timur Valiev & Jerrod Sanders. He also has a victory over Timur Valiev. He will use butterfly hooks, or even give his back & scramble to his feet. He does have nice armbars & triangles. He is able to throw up very quick armbars and uses submissions to scramble back to his feet. He will roll for leg locks. He has one career submission via rear naked choke. He has been submitted one time.
Vince Morales
Age: 29
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: American Free Fight MMA
From: Oregon
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 419
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -110
Vince Morales has been nothing short of entertaining in the UFC. He has had all decisions, but they have been fun back & forth wars. Morales dropped a decision in his last match to Benito Lopez, but a lot of people feel he won. Morales is a good striker. He is light on his feet & has a wide, hands down stance. He has fast, crisp hands, nasty punching combinations and is extremely accurate. He has a sick jab and he will double and triple it up. He will paw the jab out to land the straight-right hand and it is clean and powerful. He has a nice, short left hook, and in the pocket will unload with clean punching combinations. He likes to land the long, leaping right hand if fighters are backing up. His counter left hook backing up is nasty and when he lands clean, he can finish the fight. He is aggressive and keeps a good pace. He will throw hooks to the body, and the occasional leg kick. He has decent head kicks. He is heavy on his lead leg & susceptible to leg kicks. He also is flat footed at times & likes to counter. In this fight, he must go first more & back Lopez up. He has a questionable chin and when he gets clipped he will wobble in a lot of fights. He has good ability to recover and keep going. He showed a strong chin against Yadong Song & took a lot of big shots. Morales is definitely dangerous with 5 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Morales isn’t a grappler, and very rarely will ever go for takedowns or initiate the clinch. He was a former wrestler but doesn’t use it in MMA. If fighters initiate the clinch on him, he has really improved his takedown defense, and he is very hard to take down. He does a great job of sprawling on double legs, and not letting fighters cement position if they do get him down and bouncing right back. He circled to the back and got a slam takedown in his last Bellator match. He also has great ground & pound after he drops opponents and gets brutal knockouts. He has three submissions & been submitted two times. Morales needs to go forward, put his punches together & maybe even try to mix in some takedowns.
This should be a 15-minute striking match. I think Gutierrez is the better boxer of the two, but Morales should be the one throwing at the higher volume. I think the leg kicks from Gutierrez will be big here because he will need to slow Morales down. I think it is just going to come down to what the judges prefer. I think Gutierrez could do more damage, but Morales lands more volume. I really don’t have a lean either way and if either guy was + money I would probably just pick them. With this fight taking place in the smaller Octagon, I like that helps Gutierrez more and he should be able to land more kicks with Morales having less room to dance around the cage.
On DraftKings, I really don’t love this fight and it has a -285 line that it goes to decision. The only thing I really like about this fight for DraftKings is that it is the first fight of the night and I don’t like not having any exposure to the first fight. I will probably end up tossing both guys into a couple lineups out of ~50, but I think if you are making 20 or less this isn’t a bad fight to fade. I wouldn’t want to trust either guy in cash games either so let’s just hope for a low paced decision here.
Winner – Chris Gutierrez via Unanimous Decision
Casey Kenney $9,100 vs Louis Smolka $7,100
Casey Kenney
Age: 29
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Rise Combat Sports
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 48
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -270
Casey Kenney will be making his fourth UFC start, but first one coming off a loss. Kenney had his seven-fight winning streak snapped at the hands of Merab Dvalishvili. Kenney is looking to get back on the horse three months later & back in the win column. Kenney is an aggressive, high-volume striker. He also packs power for the division. He is hittable at times & not the greatest athlete. Kenney is good at always going forward & bossing the fight vs most guys. He throws a lot of kicks and stays very busy. Casey Kenney has a good jab, nice one-two & decent hand speed. When he backs opponents to the cage, he likes to use right hook, left hook combinations. He will finish combos with nice head kicks. Kenney has nice round kicks to the body & head. Kenney will also attack the body with punches, and he has a good counter left hook. He will look to grab the Mai Thai plum & throw knees up the middle. He has a recent knee knockout that way. I would say he is the more fluid striker in this matchup, but both guys are predominately grapplers. Kenney likes to walk opponents into straights & kicks and be pretty. In this fight with the constant forward pressure of Smolka, he may struggle to get going on the feet. Kenney didn’t enjoy getting pushed backwards against Manny Bermudez and ate some big shots that had him hurt in round three. Kenney is heavy on his lead leg & doesn’t move his head in exchanges. He is hittable and doesn’t have great defense. Kenney isn’t a big knockout threat with just two in his career. He has never been finished.
Casey Kenney is a very strong grappler. Kenney is very strong in the clinch with judo throws & trips. He is a multi-time American judo medalist. He is good at opening up the takedown threat with elbows & knees in the clinch. He also can get big, explosive slam takedowns with singles & doubles. One of his knockouts was a slam knockout. Kenney has nice ground & pound and has good power. His riding ability is elite, and he will just float and keep top position for fifteen or twenty-five minutes. He likes to take the back & was able to get the back of Ray Borg & Bermudez multiple times. Borg was able to scramble out of those positions time & time again, but Borg is one of the best scramblers in the sport. Kenney has been taken down a ton in three UFC fights. He was slammed multiple times against Merab & Borg with doubles. He also had his back taken but is very good at shaking opponents off. Against Manny Bermudez & Merab, you could tell the size was a factor, and they were able to get some easy clinch takedowns. Kenney is never static when taken down, and very hard to control. He wins fights by winning scrambles & being the better grappler in most fights. Kenney does have 4 submissions, but none in his last 9 fights. Kenney has slowed down in round three of both of his UFC fights. He is fighting out of his weight class & eventually that will catch up to him.
Louis Smolka
Age: 28
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 68.5”
Gym: Team Oyama
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 7-6
Fight Matrix: 120
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +230
Louis Smolka has done fairly well in his second UFC stint. He has returned at a new weight class of BW and gone 2-1. He is coming off a big first round knockout victory in October. Smolka has always been a fighter who looks for the kill. Even while being at FLW for most of his career, he has fourteen finishes in his sixteen wins. His opponent Casey Kenney has never been finished. Smolka is a pressure fighter on the feet and likes to walk down opponents. He likes to throw a check left hook, leg and body kicks. He will throw a jab, straight-right hand. He will throw front kicks to the body, and then try to land a right hook over the top. He has good head kicks. He will throw a lot of straight-right hands. He is slow with his strikes, and fighters are able to see his punches coming and slip them and catch his kicks. He doesn’t have great defense, he will just raise his guard, and stand flat footed. He is tough and has a good chin. He will continue to press forward even after he is dropped or bloodied. Smolka isn’t a huge KO threat on the feet, but he has 7 KO/TKO finishes. He has never been finished with strikes himself.
Smolka is a good BJJ practitioner. He is tall and long for the division. He uses his length to get body locks and trip takedowns, he also will shoot single legs. He did a great job of getting in on the single against Su Mudaerji. He was able to get good timing on a double leg, drove his opponent to the cage & changed it to a single and got him down. Smolka does a good job of using his length in opponent’s guards to posture up and land hard punches. He is good at throwing the legs to the side & moving to side control. He looks to be worried more about control now than he did previously. He is dangerous with submissions, and very good in scrambles. In the past, he used to go for a lot of high risk submission attempts & be in scramble fest fights. In his last few matches, he has worried more about control & G&P before looking for submission. He took a beating against Kyle Estrada and was able to survive, get a takedown in round two and rain down G&P from mount. He severally hurt Estrada and had a great amount of volume. The fight was stopped between rounds. He also had some great ground & pound against Mudaerji and a slick back take. In his fight against Matt Schnell, he was caught in a triangle & submitted while in top position. He has 7 submissions and has been submitted twice.
I think this is going to be a good one. On the feet, I think this is a close fight, but I would maybe favor Smolka there after how he looked in his last fight. I would say Kenney has more power but if I knew this fight would stay standing I would have to bet Smolka at these odds. The ground is where I think this is going to be a fun fight and I think we will see a ton of grappling exchanges. Kenney is the better wrestler of the two, but I think Smolka could be the better scrambler and submission grappler. I do think Smolka’s willingness to accept takedowns could be his downfall here though because I see Kenney racking up multiple takedowns each round and that is why I think he should be the favorite in this fight. 3/1 is too high for me to play but I will take Kenney as my pick to win, it’s just probably dog or pass on the betting line for me.
This is probably my favorite fight on the card for watching purposes and maybe DraftKings purposes as well. There tends to be a lot of grappling in Smolka fights and the winner usually scores well. I want to load up on both sides of this fight but more so the Casey side. We can afford him this week with the cheap, free square, so he is my favorite pay up option and will be a core play for me. I also want to be overweight on Smolka as well because he does score well when he wins and with him being only $7.1k, he could break the slate in a win. So, I would probably lean maybe 6/3 in favor of Casey and then fade it in the other 10% with my lineups. I think Casey can get a lot of points on the ground in this fight, so I like him in all formats and as long as he doesn’t go out there and look to strike for 15-minutes, I think he scores well in a win.
Winner – Casey Kenney via Unanimous Decision
Tim Elliott $8,700 vs Brandon Royval $7,500
Tim Elliott
Age: 33
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: Glory MMA & Fitness
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 4-8
Fight Matrix: 45
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -165
Tim Elliott badly needs a win here as he is on the verge of being cut from the UFC for a second time. He has lost two fights in a row and hasn’t earned a victory since 2017. The two fighters Elliott lost to are ranked in the top five but losing to a UFC debutant would not be a good look. Elliott is 33 years old at this point and a loss would most likely get him cut. Tim Elliott’s striking has really regressed to me. He is much slower with the movement and isn’t quite as fast with age. He was throwing some nice low kicks in his last fight, showed some good pressure and some trademark blitz attacks. Elliott inside will still try to let his hands go but relying on his chin has caught up to him. He almost got knocked out cold in his last match & his hands low style just leaves him available to a lot of punishment. A lot of Elliott’s striking is just to goad opponents to commit so he can level change and get the takedown. Elliott has only three KO/TKO’s, and none since 2011. Elliott has been TKO’d just one time & is very tough.
Tim Elliott has an extremely fan friendly grappling style. Elliott is active seeker of the takedown and takes down basically everyone he fights. Elliott has a sick single & double leg. In top position, Elliott is constantly moving. There will never be a stagnant position with Tim Elliott, it is scramble city. Elliott can be lazy inside opponent’s guards and let them get deep on submissions. He has to be careful with that here against a guy like Royval. Elliott likes to get to side control, work for the crucifix position, along with looking for arm triangles. Elliott will force opponents to give to give their backs and is excellent at locking in no hooks rear naked chokes. Elliott has very nice front chokes, and a lot of variations. If he can get that front head lock position, he is dangerous. Elliott’s aggressiveness does put himself in some bad positions. Elliott gets his head caught in guillotine positions a lot. Louis Smolka was able to use the guillotine to sweep to mount & do some damage. Elliott can end up getting out swept and put on his back. He has a sick butterfly guard, and just is excellent in scrambles. Even when he gets mounted or his back taken, he will stay calm until he can create an opportunity to get a two on one or give his back & reverse. Elliott is excellent at bellying down into single legs and reversing position as well. Elliott did attempt a head & arm throw in a fight vs Ben Nguyen, and Nguyen was able to take the back & choke him out in less than a minute. He was submitted with a guillotine as he shot in in his last match with Figueiredo. In his last match, he did land some head and arm throws, but could never control Askarov. Elliott has 8 submissions and has been submitted 3 times.
Brandon Royval
Age: 27
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: factoryX Muay Thai
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 31
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +145
Brandon Royval got a little luck to be getting this matchup here. The current FLW LFA champion was set to go on the DWCS later this year for a chance at a UFC contract. Now instead he is getting the opportunity to jump right into the UFC, against a notable name. Royval is an interesting prospect, but I’m not extremely impressed. On the feet, Royval is very high volume. He is fast & long for the division, having nice kicks and straights. Royval will throw heavy low kicks, early and often. Royval likes to throw straights followed by low body or head kicks. He has a nice jab, will throw some one-twos and nice, straight punch drive-bys. Royval has a nice, short lead hook also. He also likes to spin, throwing some nice spinning elbows. He will mix knees into his combinations, & overall is a creative striker. The issue with Royval on the feet is his defense. He drops his hands & has his chin readily available to be hit after throwing strikes. He is there to be countered & eventually he will be knocked out if that isn’t fixed. Royval is very tough & when he gets hit, will come forward and try to get it back. He likes to drown opponents with volume & forward pressure, forcing them to shoot takedowns. Royval will probably have the striking advantage here, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he got tagged with some good ones himself. Royval has never been finished by strikes & at FLW you can get away with more mistakes. Royval does have three KO/TKO victories.
Brandon Royval is a dangerous submission grappler. He is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and is not afraid to attack submissions. Royval really doesn’t have the wrestling though. He doesn’t shoot takedowns and has poor takedown defense. The way he gets top position is from forcing bad shots out of opponents from pressure on the feet or sweeping his opponent. Royval’s takedown defense is improving, but it still isn’t very good. He can get taken down in the clinch with wrestling shots and will most likely get taken down by Elliott. When he fought UFC fighter Casey Kenney, Royval was taken down at will. Royval is very tricky off his back. He has a good guard, and very quick armbar and triangle transitions. He will attack oma & gogoplatas, and transitions from submission to submission very quickly. Royval can get his guard passed due to being so aggressive, and Casey Kenney was able to ride him out fairly easily. Royval still will attack the legs, look for submissions in scrambles, and to reguard. Royval has sick cardio and will never stop working on bottom or on top. Most of Royval’s wins have come by submission in bottom position. He has six career subs. Royval is coming off two quick armbar finishes which are his specialty. If Royval wins this fight, I think it will likely be by submission or TKO.
Royval is making his UFC debut here and I haven’t seen anything from him that makes me think he is ready for a guy like Tim Elliott. Elliott is a solid vet and he has an awkward style that is hard to prepare for. Royval can keep this close on the feet or possibly get a knockout, but I think he could be in a lot of trouble if he gets put on his back. I think Elliott is good enough to win on the feet as well, but his ground game is what I like most about him and that is how I see him getting his hand raised.
On DraftKings, I like Elliott in all formats. He is hard to trust though so I think he makes for a better GPP play than cash game play. However, if he wins, I think he scores well. He should be able to rack up takedown and advance points in this fight and he fights at a high enough pace that I would think any win would 10x his salary here. Royval could be live for the finish in this fight so I think he is very in play as well, but I like other underdogs more to where I won’t end up having many shares of him myself. Elliott will be a guy I like to go overweight on through, but he is a boom or bust fighter so if you want to fade him in cash games and just get your exposure in GPPs I think that is solid.
Winner – Tim Elliott via Unanimous Decision
Jamahal Hill $8,400 vs Klidson Abreu $7,800
Jamahal Hill
Age: 29
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 79”
Gym: Black Lion Jiu-Jitsu
From: Michigan
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 76
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -120
Jamahal Hill is set to make his second start in the UFC. He was victorious via UD and looked very good on the feet. Hill is improving rapidly, getting better and better every fight. He only has 7 pro fights & been a professional just under 3 years. Klidson Abreu is definitely the stiffest test of his career. If he can get the win, he may be fast tracked to the top fifteen. Jamahal Hill is a super high-volume striker. He is a southpaw, but switches stances. Hill is long & fast using that to his advantage very well. Hill is a sniper, he has extremely accurate jabs and straight punches. He has a really nice lead right hook, straight-left combination. He will throw nice rear uppercuts to start combinations. He is very good at attacking the body with punches and goes up and down very effectively. Hill throws nasty round & front kicks to the body as well. Hill attacks the body constantly and tries to melt opponents. Hill will use nice step-in knees to the body. He has good high kicks. Hill’s accuracy is elite & he doesn’t waste many strikes. Hill landed over 100 significant strikes in his last match. Hill’s striking defense is not the greatest. He is good at pull countering & has a long reach. It can make fighters nervous to throw at him. Hill does lean back & float his chin. He ate some decent shots vs Darko Stosic and was dropped by Dequan Townsend. Against explosive guys who can close the distance quickly, he may struggle a bit. He can be a bit heavy on his lead leg and eat low kicks. Hill is young, improving & very confident. When he gets hurt, he will recover quickly, and get back to pressuring. He is very strong mentally & will be undeterred by adversity. Hill has 3 KO/TKO victories in his career. He has never been finished by strikes.
Jamahal Hill’s grappling is a bit of a question mark. He is good in the clinch with knees and will control fighters against the cage. He likes to shoot doubles in space, and chain wrestle against the cage. Hill has good fight IQ and fights to his opponent’s weaknesses. When he fought Dequan Townsend, although he’s a striker, he took him down & dominated in route to a five-round decision victory. Hill’s defensive wrestling is very questionable. He was taken down six times by Darko Stosic even though he popped up quickly. Hill showed a good get-up game, but Darko isn’t the same level on the mat as Klidson Abreu.
Klidson Abreu
Age: 27
Height: 6’1
Weight: 205
Reach: 74”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 30
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +100
Klidson Abreu is returning following a controversial split decision loss to Shamil Gamzatov. Abreu has just a 1-2 record in the UFC and needs a victory here. This is a fun matchup, because I do think Abreu poses problems for Hill on the feet & on the ground. Klidson Abreu is not the fastest guy, but he is a powerful, pressure striker. He has nice low kicks, and checks low kicks as well, which I believe he will try to utilize in this fight. Abreu has a nasty round kick to the body. Abreu will throw some jabs, but mostly uses his right cross, looping hooks and overhands. Abreu has some good counter combinations ending with kicks. Abreu is improving as a striker & I do think if he can back Hill up to the cage & bomb on him, he has a chance to connect. In space, I think Hill is far too fast and probably will eat him up at range. Abreu can’t go backwards in this fight or he will be in big trouble. Abreu is hittable to the body, and he is a bit soft. I feel the body shots from Hill could add up. Abreu has power & is dangerous for a hands down striker like Hill, but he has just four KO/TKO’s. He has been finished twice by strikes.
Klidson Abreu is a very good Jiu-Jitsu black belt. If he can get on top of Hill in the center of the cage it could be curtains. Klidson will look to close the distance & control in the clinch. He has good body lock & trip takedowns. Abreu has decent level changes attacking with double legs. He doesn’t finish them very well, but he will come up into a tight waist & take the back. Abreu has a ton of rear naked choke finishes in his career & against high level fighters. Abreu will also pull guard & is solid off his back. He can lose rounds by just lying there, but he does have a couple submissions from his guard. Abreu has ten career submissions. Abreu has beaten guys like Sam Alvey, Johnny Walker, Viktor Nemkov, & Timo Feucht. He has pretty solid cardio & forward pressure but I’m not sure it’s going to hold up against someone with the volume & body attack of Hill. He could be tired & overwhelmed in round three. Abreu does have a massive experience advantage though, and multiple paths to victory. It will be a good fight & test for both guys.
This should be a striker vs grappler matchup. If it stays on the feet, I like Hill. If Abreu can get it to the mat, then Hill could be in trouble and possibly submitted. I just don’t think Abreu has much wrestling in his game, so Hill should be able to keep this on the feet more than not. It could only take one takedown for Abreu to get a sub, but I am going to take Hill by KO or Unanimous Decision.
I think this could be one-way traffic for whoever gets the win. If Hill wins, he probably picks Abreu apart on the feet and possibly finishes. If Abreu wins, he probably dominates Hill on the ground. Either way, I think this is an important fight for DraftKings and this is one I will be pretty even with on my exposure. If you have a strong lean either way, then I think going overweight on that person is the way to go and maybe a bit underweight on the other. I just want a good number of lineups with both and hopefully get the right combination with the winner. I wouldn’t want to trust either guy with a low floor in cash games though so GPP only for me with my preferred play being Hill.
Winner – Jamahal Hill via 2nd round (T)KO
Daniel Rodriguez $7,300 vs Gabriel Green $6,800
Daniel Rodriguez
Age: 33
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: Tapout LA
From: California
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 65
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -350
Daniel Rodriguez will be looking to play spoiler for the second time in two UFC fights. He was a big underdog going into his fight with Tim Means, but finished him in exciting fashion. Rodriguez has won seven consecutive fights finishing all seven. Rodriguez is a rough and rugged guy who is going to be ready for the moment. Rodriguez is a technical striker. He is light on his feet, to complement great leg kicks. Rodriguez also has an excellent lead hand. He will switch stances and likes to use a right jab or check right hook. Rodriguez will keep the volume high & mostly works basics. He will throw a lot of jabs to the body and head, low kicks and gets ahead on points. His right hook has big power, and he can shut opponent’s lights out with both hands. Rodriguez will attack the body with punches as well. Rodriguez has a nice jab, overhand left combination. His overhand left is his knockout shot, & he will wing it with full power. He will throw a jab, duck under & come over the top with big left hooks. Rodriguez will overextend & leave himself susceptible to counters. Rodriguez has to be tight in this fight work the basics, chop the legs, and once Green is compromised then start swinging for the finish. Rodriguez is a pressure fighter who cuts the cage off and is just a bruiser. He looks very durable but has to respect the striking. Rodriguez has never been finished by strikes. He is willing to take shots to give shots & will turn up if he feels it’s close or he needs a finish. Rodriguez does hold his hands low and is susceptible to body shots. He got hurt with a body shot vs Rico Farrington. He is pretty open to being hit as he comes forward. Rodriguez has 6 career KO/TKO’s.
Daniel Rodriguez is a tenth planet trained grappler, but there is limited footage of him grappling online. Rodriguez is a thick, strong fighter for the division, and looks strong in the clinch. He has a nasty knee knockout in the clinch in his career. He did hit a body lock & double takedown vs Farrington. He seemed to time takedowns in the last 10 seconds of rounds to seal them. In previous fights, I’ve seen him defend takedowns, take top position & do work. He will move to mount & work strikes to finish the fight. In his contender series fight, he got a takedown late in round three, took mount & almost got the late finish. Rodriguez will hunt arm triangles from mount. When fighters give their backs, he will jump on rear naked chokes. Rodriguez has three career submissions & has never been submitted. He has strong cardio & is a dog.
Gabriel Green
Age: 27
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Subfighter MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 9 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: +290
Gabriel Green is taking his shot, stepping up on very short notice replacing Kevin Holland. Green is a career 155er, with a record of 9-2. He has won six straight fights and is a kill or be killed fighter. Green has never been to decision in eleven fights. Green hasn’t fought in a long while. The last time he fought was September of 2018. On the feet, Green isn’t bad. He throws a lot of volume, straight punches & kicks. He throws a lot of jabs. He will mix kicks and punches into his combinations. He has nice front & round kicks to the body. He will also try to use head kicks behind jabs. He switches stances and likes to go forward. Green at 155 lbs is usually the bigger guy. He bullies guys in there & eats their shots. Green’s defense is not great. He holds his hands low, and has good head movement, but gets hit a lot. For the style he uses, he isn’t the greatest athlete. In both of his losses he was knocked out. Green doesn’t have one shot power but accumulates damage and takes fighters out. He has three KO/TKO’s.
Gabriel Green is a tricky submission grappler. When he takes opponent’s backs, it’s usually curtains. He will go palm to palm and has a great squeeze. Green isn’t the best wrestler though, and usually has to create a scramble or sweep to top position. His takedown defense is not very good. Off his back, Green isn’t bad, but not great. He has very flexible legs and attacks a lot of submissions in scrambles. He does allow opponents to get to dominant positions but is good at staying calm. He has good mount escapes into heel hooks. I’ve seen him hit some crazy sweeps. He is always looking to take the back in scrambles. All six of Green’s submissions are rear naked chokes.
Green is taking this fight up a division on less than a weeks’ notice. He hasn’t fought since 2018 and I didn’t see anything from him to make me thing he is worth any investment here. I think it is submission or bust for him, but I doubt he can get takedowns, so I think he needs a guillotine or leg lock submission here to get the win. I see Rodriguez being too big and powerful for him and picking him apart on the feet until he can get a finish with strikes.
I think Rodriguez is the easiest free square of all time here in GPPs and a much better play than Giga Chikadze was last card in a similar situation. With Giga, he was +130 ITD and he isn’t a wrestler at all, plus we knew he would be super chalk. I didn’t love that play. This week with Rodriguez, I am literally all-in. I am not saying he will win or dominate but he is -350 to win, -180 ITD, and +125 to win in round 1. That is what I love here and at his $7.3k I think a win from him will be on the optimal lineup. Maybe splitting with 100 other people, but still will need him. If you want to take a chance for ownership reasons I think you can fade this fight or use Green to be super contrarian, I just won’t do that personally and this is the free square for me.
Winner – Daniel Rodriguez via 1st round (T)KO
Antonina Shevchenko $8,500 vs Katlyn Chookagian $7,700
Antonina Shevchenko
Age: 35
Height: 5’8
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: UFC PI
From: Kyrgyzstan
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 14
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -130
Antonina Shevchenko had the best performance of her UFC career last time out. She took out Lucie Pudilova in round two of an awesome, high-paced fight. Shevchenko is always going to have that burden of living up to her sister, but she is a bad chick herself. Shevchenko is a striker & Muay Thai World Champion. She has fast hands, a good jab and right hand. She has nice leg kicks and hard front kicks to the body. She has a good lead and counter left hook. She has heavy head kicks and good body kicks. She will keep heavy volume on opponents and stays at her range. In her last match, she struggled with forward pressure & Modafferi was able to land some decent shots that got Shevchenko’s attention. She got backed to the cage & didn’t angle or circle off well. Shevchenko doesn’t look to have big power & opponents can walk through her shots. She has two career KO/TKO’s. She has never been finished by strikes, but I feel her chin is questionable.
Shevchenko is nasty in the clinch and her grappling looks impressive. She is very strong and when she gets a hold of the Muay Thai plum, she will land heavy knees to the body and head, and also nasty elbows. She has great elbows in close range and cuts fighters faces up. She has ok takedown defense. She will sprawl, get double underhooks and reverse and get on top herself. She has nice elbows on the ground, and she has great cardio and will continue to land knees and or ground & pound until she finishes the fight. Off her back, I saw her get beat up a bit & mounted by a fighter on the regional scene in 2017. In her last fight, she showed bad chain wrestling against the cage. She was taken down at will & looked very green on her back she couldn’t stand up & gave up dominant positions. In this fight she’s facing more of a striker, but you have to imagine she will try to exploit that weakness of Shevchenko. Shevchenko has no submissions & has never been submitted.
Katlyn Chookagian
Age: 31
Height: 5’9
Weight: 125
Reach: 66”
Gym: Nick Catone’s MMA
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 6-3
Fight Matrix: 2
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +110
Katlyn Chookagian will be looking to rebound after suffering her second career loss at 125 lbs. she finally got the title shot she worked hard for but was dealt with & finished very easily. Katlyn is in an interesting position here. She is getting the opportunity to avenge that loss by defeating Valentina’s sister, Antonina. I’m sure it will be a bit of déjà vu for Chookagian for a second when they walk in the cage & announce the names. Chookagian also has to deal with seeing and hearing Valentina in the corner, which could be intimidating or a distraction. Chookagian is a good striker, with a point fighting style. She has a nice jab, and she will double and triple up on it. She will follow the jab up with a straight-right hand, leg kick combination, and has very fluid kicks with her lead leg. She has a nice front kick and sidekick to the body, along with a fast-high kick. She will throw question mark kicks and hook kicks as well with her lead leg. She has good overhand lefts and rights in close range and will sit down and throw with power. She has a nice left hook, straight-right hand to the body. She will throw hooks to the body also and has nice rear uppercuts. She is good at catching kicks and returning with shots, and she is good defensively. She has good footwork and lateral movement and keeps a high volume of shots out there. Her left knee and high kick are her most dangerous attacks, she dropped Liz Carmouche with a head kick. Katlyn has also sat down on her punches putting more power on them recently. She has two knockouts in her career, and never been finished.
Chookagian is a Renzo Gracie brown belt, and well versed on the mat. She has good duck unders for double legs and is strong in the clinch with knees. She is good at landing hard knees to the body and disengaging when fighters try to clinch with her, and she has good takedown defense. When she does get taken down, she will attack with triangles and armbars and has a decent get-up game. She does have two submissions in her career with one being an armbar. Her armbars look very fast & she sets them up well. On top, she has good control, and will win rounds through top position. In this fight I do see Chookagian looking to get it to the mat if it’s close on the feet.
This should be a 15-minute striking battle and probably a back and forth one. I think Shevchenko is the better striker of the two and the more dangerous finisher as well. Chookagian has a style that judges like though because she is constantly throwing punches. Most of those punches only hit air, but judges are easily fooled. I think Shevchenko will be the one landing more strikes here and landing the harder blows, but Chookagian is probably going to be throwing more strikes and since this should go to decision, I don’t love trusting judges in that scenario.
This is one of the worst 2 fights for DraftKings in my opinion. We should get a 15-minute striking match here, and with no takedowns or knockdowns, I don’t see either fighter scoring highly and maybe not even getting 10x in a win. I will probably fade this fight with 50 or less lineups personally. If you think either lady can finish then feel free to use them, but for me the only way I would really want to use this fight is in cash games and my lean is towards Shevchenko.
Winner – Antonina Shevchenko via Unanimous Decision
Mackenzie Dern $9,300 vs Hannah Cifers $6,900
Mackenzie Dern
Age: 27
Height: 5’4
Weight: 115
Reach: 63”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: California
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 41
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -440
Mackenzie Dern is returning after her first career loss. She is trying to jumpstart her career again following her pregnancy. Dern has not won a fight in two years. Dern was outclassed a bit by Amanda Ribas, but I do believe she’s improving. Dern has improved with her striking. She is throwing straighter punches down the pipe and has better head movement. Dern still shows some amateur defense, pulling back with her chin high & just having bad defense moving backwards. Dern does have good forward pressure, nice low kicks and isn’t afraid to throw down. She will wing big overhands and throws heavy hooks in the pocket. Dern is one of the bigger girls in the division & hardest hitters. Dern has a good chin, good cardio, and I think she is still a good prospect.
Mackenzie Dern is obviously one of the most dangerous girls in the division on the ground. Dern is dangerous in all phases of grappling. In the clinch she will try to jump on the back. She has some nice knees. Dern has an improved single leg and will use the double leg to finish or pull guard. In top position, Dern is a back taker in MMA and will finish fights quickly. Dern has a dangerous guard also, high guard, attacks armbars and triangles. Dern is arguably the best leg locker in women’s Jiu-Jitsu history. Dern has four submissions.
Hannah Cifers
Age: 27
Height: 5’1
Weight: 115
Reach: 62”
Gym: Embrace Martial Arts
From: North Carolina
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 40
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +350
Hannah Cifers had her two-fight winning streak halted by Angela Hill in her last match. She was actually finished with brutal elbows from mount. Cifers has been up & down in her UFC career going 2-2. Cifers is a striker. She is a smaller girl at 5’2 & her footwork is not very good. I think in this fight that could be an issue for her. Cifers does crack & has big power in her overhand right. Cifers is good at landing that overhand right as opponents enter range. Cifers will attack to the body and head with combinations. She will throw straight punch combos to the body and head and has a nice right hook to the body. Cifers does a good job of coming forward, throwing hooks & overhands while ducking & rolling. Cifers will throw occasional leg kicks. They don’t seem very powerful. She has a solid, rear leg body kick. Cifers is very hittable herself & she throws with full power overextending herself. Cifers struggled with the kicks of Polyana Viana especially to the body. Cifers is a very tough chick & has a lot of heart. She has been finished by strikes just once vs Maycee Barber.
Hannah Cifers is not an active grappler in fights. She is very strong in the clinch & has short range power. She will throw short hooks, uppercuts & has pretty fast hands. Cifers isn’t a wrestler & has just one UFC takedown. In top position she doesn’t do very much. She holds position & stays tight, but her ground & pound isn’t super dangerous & she isn’t a big submission threat on top. Cifers was taken down three times in her match with Jodie Esquibel. Cifers struggled with the timing of Jodie’s double legs. Cifers is active off her back with armbars, triangles, & omaplatas. Cifers will look for leg locks. She was able to shut down Jodie Esquibel’s top game with her guard. Cifers is yet to earn a submission victory in her MMA career. She has been submitted once herself.
This is a tough matchup for Cifers because of how good on the ground Dern is. Cifers can hang on the feet and could maybe even land a hard shot for the TKO. I just think once this fight hits the ground it could be over shortly afterwards. I don’t love the price on Dern here but if you want to toss her in parlays I think that would be ok.
Dern is my preferred play here, but I like her mostly for cash games. I do feel pretty confident she gets the win here, but she really needs to get the fight to the mat and get a submission to score well. I am not confident she can go out there and get a 1st round sub so I probably will be underweight to the field here, but she is the biggest favorite on the card and she does have a nice -145 ITD line so I don’t think we can fade her here. If she doesn’t get a first round submission I doubt she ends up on the optimal lineup, so I will be hoping this fight hits round 2. If Dern doesn’t even go for takedowns I think Cifers is live in a striking match and she could break the slate if she can get a TKO here. I might have 1-2 LUs with her but other than that I don’t have much interest in her.
Winner – Mackenzie Dern via 2nd round Submission
Roosevelt Roberts $9,200 vs Brok Weaver $7,000
Roosevelt Roberts
Age: 28
Height: 6’1
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: Cortez Martial Arts
From: California
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 68
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -360
Roosevelt Roberts enters his fifth UFC fight looking to build off his last performance. Roberts is 3-1 in the UFC & 11-1 overall in his career. He is a big-time prospect who has even been named by Dana White as a fighter to watch out for. Roberts was able to get a decision victory over a tough veteran in his home country in his last fight which was good experience for him. He will be looking to parlay that experience into a finish vs Brok Weaver. It looks like the oddsmakers feel he is going to as he is a -300-favorite coming in here. Roosevelt Roberts to me is still very much developing. On the feet, he has good physical gifts, but really isn’t the greatest striker. Roberts is solid when he can go forward. He will work behind his jab & one-two. Roberts will throw the straight down the middle as a lead a lot as well. Roberts has fast hands when fighters stand in front of him & will put together some nice, straight punching combos. Roberts will mix knees into his combinations which are dangerous. Roberts is good at switching stances and looks ambidextrous. He has a lot of potential as a striker, but really hasn’t put it together yet. He doesn’t throw many kicks at all, which I don’t get. With his frame, he should be very good at kicking. Roberts did throw one low kick & body kick vs Yakovlev which is more than he usually does. If he can start implementing front & round kicks, he will be much better at controlling distance. Roberts gets backed up very easily. He is flat footed and gets too involved in trying to counter moving backwards. He will look to touch opponents with soft punches as they come forward & then time a knee up the middle or harder shot to put them down. The issue with that is Roberts isn’t a power puncher, and fighters can either slip or eat his shots and push him back. When he gets backed up to the cage, he will be stationary, and look to slip & rip. He stands tall, is susceptible to low kicks & body shots, and also uses his height to defend punches to the head. Roberts is a bit of a front runner. When he can go forward and dominate the fight, he will get more confident, but if fighters walk him down the volume will wane. He likes to try to walk fighters into one shot home runs as they come forward but doesn’t put combos together moving backward. Roberts needs to improve his footwork and try to implement some kicks into his game. That will make him much more dangerous. Roberts just has 3 TKO’s in his career.
Roosevelt Roberts is developing as a grappler as well. He does look to mix it up & the most dangerous part of his game is probably his guillotine. Roberts doesn’t shoot much in space. He likes to shoot when he can get fighters against the cage. Roberts has a nice single leg, which is essentially the only takedown setup he uses. I have seen him explode into some double legs when he had his back against the fence but that’s few and far between. In top position, Roberts is really not very dangerous. He is a good rider and that’s what he looks to do mainly, stay on top, float, improve position and win the fight. He won’t look too hard for submissions or throw hard ground & pound. Roberts will sometimes threaten a sub to get some ground & pound in, or rain down some shots if he can get to a dominant position. He does have a good mount, and once he gets there has good control even if he isn’t doing much damage. He only has one career submission from top position which was a rear naked choke. Roberts doesn’t look very strong for the division. He lacks physicality in the tie ups and can be controlled against the cage and taken down in the clinch. Roberts also struggles against fighters who can setup takedowns with strikes. Vinc Pichel once he realized that was able to dominate him with the grappling. Roberts’ takedown defense especially against chain wresting is poor. What he does have is that dangerous guillotine. He will snatch that up when fighters come in to take him down and finish the fight or force them to go to their backs. He was able to threaten Yakovlev with it in round three of his last match, forced him to his back, and won the decisive round and fight 29-28 by riding him out. Roberts is a tough, scrappy guy and will be in there for three rounds. He can break a bit in fights but seems to always at least stay dangerous. Off his back, he is not very good though. He will lay flat & not offer much. He can be controlled & dominated. Roberts did threaten an armbar in his guard last fight, and is improving a bit off his back, but still showed a bad get-up game. Roberts has 4 career subs. His cardio is a bit questionable, but not bad.
Brok Weaver
Age: 28
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: Team Mowa
From: Alabama
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 185
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: +300
Brok Weaver got the win in his UFC debut, but not the way he wanted to. He was essentially knocked out, but since it was due to an illegal knee he was given the DQ victory. Although it was early in the fight, Weaver was not looking great. He needs to have a bounce back performance here & show people why the UFC is high on him. Weaver is riding an eight-fight win streak and has a lot of confidence in himself. Weaver is going to have one thing most of Roberts opponents don’t right off the bat; the physical tools to match him. Roberts is usually a much taller, longer fighter at LW, but Weaver is the same height with the same reach. Weaver is also just a thicker, bigger framed guy who has competed at 170 lbs. Weaver is a forward pressure boxer. He is a dog, who loves the war. Brok Weaver is definitely the more technical boxer. He is a southpaw. Weaver puts combinations together to the body and head and has more fluid hands. Weaver controls distance well with feints. He has a nice jab, good one-two, and a heavy, lead right hook. Weaver has nice hook combos in close range. He will go to the body and head with the combinations. Weaver likes to throw a left straight to the body to an overhand right combination. Brok Weaver in some fights uses a lot of oblique kicks to the legs. He will stand in front of opponents, feint & look to counter, but can be low volume. In this fight, he has to use his style from his contender series match, move forward & maul. Weaver will throw some occasional round kicks to the legs, body & head, but not often. Weaver does cut the cage off & backs opponents up well. He is excellent at using the right hook to tag opponents as they try to circle off the cage. Weaver is nasty and will engage in brawls. He will get cut & use his fingers to spread the blood on his face & scream. He thoroughly enjoys fighting, and that is a dangerous guy. Weaver has fought in some boxing matches & Bareknuckle FC vs Joe Riggs who is a huge guy. He definitely is the better boxer in this match. Weaver can get in some exchanges, but overall, he has good defense. Early on in this fight, I think he will be at a big speed disadvantage. He has to walk down Roberts, attack the body, get him backed against the wall & make it an inside fight. At range or if Roberts goes forward, I think he could piece up Weaver. Weaver doesn’t have the biggest power with only two KO/TKO’s. Weaver has a good chin & is very durable. He has only been finished once by strikes. He was knocked out in his last match with an illegal knee.
Brok Weaver is a good grappler, and brown belt in Jiu-Jitsu. Weaver is strong in the clinch, even at 170 lbs. He will dig nice underhooks, land short shots, and hit trips & body locks. He has good head positioning. Weaver is very good with dirty boxing. He will never let opponents rest. He will throw constant knees to the body and head with hooks & short uppercuts & just work opponents. Weaver will also jump on guillotines & pull guard on them. I don’t like seeing fighters pull guard on guillotines, and he shouldn’t do that in the UFC. Weaver will stay connected if opponents try to stand up after the trips, and mat return them. Weaver will take the back after getting those takedowns as well. Weaver is getting much better at faking pull counters & then ducking under into a blast double. In top position, Weaver has good control & heavy ground & pound. Weaver has good back takes. He was able to get a rear naked choke against Tyler Hill in a recent fight. Weaver was able to scramble back to his feet, and slow cooked Smyth by standing back up, and keeping the pressure high. After the initial burst from Smyth, Weaver was largely able to defend all of Smyth’s shots against the cage with nice, wide heavy hips. He landed some big elbows to the head & knees to the body. Smyth is a very explosive 170 lber, so I think at 155 his takedown defense, and ability to stand up will be even better. Weaver was taken down with some double legs in that fight and controlled against the cage. He was taken down with a single leg vs Kazula Vargas and controlled against the cage which I didn’t like to see. When Weaver gets taken down, he is hard to hold down, and works to stand up immediately. He is good at bellying down & standing up or giving his back to stand up. Weaver can look a bit slow in the transitions, and I feel Roberts may be able to take his back & mount him. Weaver has to be ready to defend takedowns, work the get-ups and get out of bad positions in this fight. Weaver has 3 submissions & has been submitted one time. Weaver has great cardio & will never break.
I like Roberts here and I think he is the better fighter everywhere. I like his striking a bit more, but I do think Weaver will be the higher volume guy on the feet. The ground is where I think Roberts shines here though. I think his wrestling will give Weaver problems and I think he can land takedowns each round. I think Weaver’s grappling is good enough to survive but the wrestling is the difference maker for me and I like Roberts to win on the scorecards here.
This is probably Roberts or pass for me on DraftKings. He is priced up at $9.2k so I want more than 92 DK points from him at that salary. In his 3 UFC wins so far, he has scored 98, 85, and 53. I am not sure he will get there in this fight either because I don’t see him getting the finish and he doesn’t fight at a high enough pace to score great in a decision win. I will get a couple shares, but I think he makes best for a cash game play and I might be in line with the field or underweight in my GPP lineups.
Winner – Roosevelt Roberts via Unanimous Decision
Billy Quarantillo $8,600 vs Spike Carlyle $7,600
Billy Quarantillo
Age: 31
Height: 5’10
Weight: 150
Reach: 70”
Gym: Griffon Rawl Muay Thai
From: Florida
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 62
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -135
Billy Quarantillo was successful in his UFC debut, picking up a second-round submission victory. Quarantillo has won six consecutive fights, and really turned around his career. After losing on the Ultimate Fighter and getting knocked out on the regional scene it looked like his UFC dreams may be over. Billy dusted himself off though and proved a lot of people wrong. When you look at Billy Qs record, you will see he has tested himself throughout his career. He has fought multiple UFC fighters on the regional scene, and definitely has the better resume compared to Spike Carlyle. Billy Q is a pressure striker on the feet. He has good boxing, throws in combination and mixes it up to the body and head. Billy has a really nice jab. He has a nasty left hook. It is a long hook and he can land it from very far out. He usually follows that hook with an overhand right or right hook to the body. He will throw nasty hooks and uppercuts inside along with body shots. He drowns opponents with forward pressure. Quarantillo will throw some occasional low kicks, front kicks to the body, but kicks aren’t a big part of his game. Quarantillo will throw a lot of naked low kicks that get him countered. He holds his hands very low & walks into bombs in a lot of fights. He ducks his head a lot by throwing wide, along with getting countered with tighter shots. He also just isn’t the fastest guy overall. In this fight, I would stick to boxing only. He is a zombie, wears the damage & continues to come forward. Quarantillo is willing to take damage & gives out damage in a lot of fights and breaks a lot of guys that way. He has been knocked out with a head kick in the past. Quarantillo has won four consecutive fights via KO/TKO and has six overall.
Billy Quarantillo is a legit BJJ black belt & strong grappler. In the clinch, he has very good dirty boxing and knees to the body and head. He will jump on front chokes even from standing. In his last match, he was able to snap down Jacob Kilburn & attack with an anaconda in round one. He showed aggressive passing ability, and absolutely dominated from mount and the back. Quarantillo showed great balance & control in the mount and went to town with the ground and pound. He showed great ability to ride opponents out and move from the mount to the back as they try to escape. Billy set up an arm triangle that was very close vs Kilburn. He eventually set up a triangle armbar from mount, locked it in and got the tap. If Billy Q gets on top of Spike Carlyle, I think Spike will be in trouble. Billy will use combinations to create entries into takedowns, usually double legs. He doesn’t have the greatest takedowns though. He gets opponents down most of the time by pressuring them and forcing them to shoot. Quarantillo’s takedown defense is not good. He can off balance himself with his punches & squares his hips as he pressures sometimes. Off his back, Quarantillo has a dangerous guard. He will attack with armbars & triangles immediately. He will throw hard elbows while having the triangle locked up. Quarantillo will also roll for leg locks to sweep. He can get dominated by superior grapplers on the mat. When opponents pass his guard, he struggles a bit. He will give up the mount & the back. Kamuela Kirk was able to take his back, and Saul Rogers dominated him with grappling on the ultimate fighter. Carlyle is going to have a chance early to finish the fight, and Billy has to be very careful in the first few minutes. If he can get Spike fatigued he should dominate on top. Billy has 4 submission victories & has never been finished by strikes.
Spike Carlyle
Age: 27
Height: 5’7
Weight: 150
Reach: 71”
Gym: Treigning Lab
From: California
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 121
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: +115
Spike Carlyle announced himself to UFC fans in a huge way in his UFC debut. The man was entertaining before the fight, during the fight, and after the fight. Carlyle fighting in front of no audience will be prime time TV. Carlyle was an underdog in his UFC debut, stepping up on short notice as well. None of that mattered as Carlyle went in there and got a brutal first round knockout. Carlyle has won five fights in a row and could be a rising star in the UFC if he can string some wins together. Spike is extremely explosive, powerful & athletic, but wild. I almost classify him as a Niko Price type guy. Someone who will have some brutal knockouts but suffer some as well. Carlyle is not a great striker though. He comes out fast, crashing with punches & throwing a lot of kicks. Spike will hold his hands low, but he throws nice round & front kicks to the body and head. He will crash forward with the left hook & has a nice straight-right hand. Spike landed a nasty spinning backfist in a recent fight that knocked his opponent out. His defense is not good though & he isn’t a UFC level striker. His hands are completely down & his wildness will cost him at the higher level. When he lands, he hits hard, but he is just far too hittable.
Spike Carlyle is a pretty strong guy, and aggressive grappler. He loves the single leg, and when he can get in is very strong. He will elevate and slam opponents. Carlyle loves to scramble and will jump on submissions. He will pull guard on guillotines, goes for armbars, triangles and is willing to give up position for submission. Carlyle when he can get to dominant positions is ruthless. He will unload with vicious ground & pound like we saw in his last match & finish the fight. Carlyle likes to take the back & flatten opponents out while looking for ground & pound and rear naked chokes. Being too aggressive going for submissions can get him in trouble at times. Off his back, he isn’t very technical, and just explodes to stand up or sweep. Against a black belt like Billy Q, I think he will have trouble doing much off his back if he’s put there. In Spike’s last match, he landed a sick elbow when his opponent went for the takedown that stunned him before finishing the fight. He has short range power and fighters have to be careful. Carlyle has three rear naked choke victories and a lot of ground & pound wins. He is a finisher finishing all his fights but one. Carlyle’s cardio looks bad in later rounds. He needs to get the job done early here in my opinion.
Carlyle is a hard hitter and is live for the knockout upset here. However, I am still not impressed with him and aside from the power, and possibly wrestling, I see Quarantillo being the better fighter everywhere. I don’t think Carlyle will have a lot of success with his wrestling because I think Quarantillo would be the better scrambler and grappler, so I think this mostly stays on the feet. I see Quarantillo picking Carlyle apart and as long as he stays conscious, I think he gets his hand raised.
This could be a good fight to target on DraftKings and both guys scored well in their UFC debuts. Billy Q scored a crazy 139 in his debut but that was with 9 advances and a 2nd round submission. I don’t see him getting near that in this fight, but I do like him to outscore his $8.6k salary in a win. Carlyle scored 103 in his debut upset and that is in play again here. He has big time power and he could get a 1st round finish again here. I also think he could land multiple takedowns and score from those. I just don’t see him winning a decision, so its finish or bust in my eyes but if he gets that finish he scores well. I want to get shares of both sides of this fight on DK, but Billy Q is my preferred play here and I like him in all formats. Plus, how could you not roster a guy with the last name Quarantillo during a quarantine?
Winner – Billy Quarantillo via Unanimous Decision
Augusto Sakai $8,200 vs Blagoy Ivanov $8,000
Augusto Sakai
Age: 29
Height: 6’3
Weight: 258
Reach: 77”
Gym: Gile Ribeiro Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 27
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -115
Augusto Sakai had the best performance of his career last time out. He quickly blitzed Marcin Tybura taking him out in round one. Sakai is on a roll being 3-0 in the UFC. He has won five fights overall. Sakai is a forward pressure striker on the feet. He isn’t the fastest guy & fighters who can stick & move well will give him trouble in my opinion. He relies on his constant forward pressure to slow guys down. He tries to cut opponents off, back them towards the cage & make it small. When he can get fighter’s backs near the fence, he will close the distance with combinations. At range, he can be low volume. He will throw some leg kicks and front kicks to the legs & body. He has a nice jab and a good one-two. He will wing some powerful hooks & overhand rights. He is deceptively athletic & will close the distance with some flying knees to the body or front kicks to the face when opponent’s backs are against the cage. He usually finishes fighters with attrition & isn’t a one punch KO guy. He fights at a slow, deliberate pace, but when he has an opponent hurt he can pick it up & throw long combinations to try to finish. Sakai does have 10 KO/TKO’s & is going to be the much more durable fighter. That’s one of his big advantages in the fight. He will be able to eat shots & continue to come forward & if Ivanov can’t take him down he may gas him out. Sakai has never been finished.
Augusto Sakai isn’t a grappler and will rarely try to wrestle. His takedown defense isn’t bad. He will use underhooks to deny takedown shots & is very strong. Against the cage, he was taken down by Kongo with singles & doubles. He was able to use the cage to stand back up but was tired. Sakai is decent in the clinch. He is heavy & will grab the Thai plum, and lean his weight on his opponents while slamming knees into the body & head. If he can drop an opponent & get on top, he is very heavy on top. He will throw nice elbows, and it’s hard to move under him. He finished Chase Sherman with ground & pound. Off his back, he has good get-ups against the cage. In space, he doesn’t look to have great get-ups & can be controlled later in the fight. When he was taken down by Chieck Kongo, Kongo was just kind of resting inside Sakai’s full guard. Sakai isn’t dangerous with submissions off his back or on top. He has zero career submissions.
Blagoy Ivanov
Age: 33
Height: 5’11
Weight: 257
Reach: 73”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Bulgaria
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 12
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -105
Blagoy Ivanov once again displayed his legendary toughness in his last match. Blagoy went to war with Derrick Lewis, ate all his shots, and gave some of his own, but lost a split decision. Blagoy has one of the best chins in the sport. He is main training partners for Francis Ngannou so that may almost be a necessity. Ivanov is a tough, savvy veteran. He fights at a slow, deliberate pace. Most of the time Blagoy is a counter striker. He will give up the center of the cage, and most likely will be the fighter moving backwards in this matchup. He is a southpaw. Ivanov has an excellent lead hand. He has a great jab, it’s stinging and very fast. Ivanov has a really nice straight-left to the body and head. Ivanov will throw some hard one-twos down the pipe. He has a nice, check right hook. He will land it going backwards behind the ear and drop opponents. Ivanov has some quick hands in the pocket also; good hooks and uppercuts. He holds his hands a bit low, but he has good head movement and counters. Blagoy isn’t the fastest or most athletic guy. He doesn’t hit the hardest or have the greatest cardio. He is just a winner, very skilled, savvy and can take it. Blagoy has never been finished by strikes. He has six knockouts.
Blagoy Ivanov is a solid grappler, but really doesn’t use it much. He finally showed it off in his last match with Derrick Lewis. Ivanov likes to work in the clinch. He can allow himself to get held against, and controlled a bit, but he is good at using momentum to off balance and bring his opponent to the floor. He has very nice trips & throws. Ivanov also has a really nice standing ten finger guillotine. He will use it to not only finish the fight, but also to force his opponents to their backs where he can get on top. Ivanov does a good job of landing directly into side control off his takedowns. He will try to get into the crucifix and land short shots while looking for subs. Ivanov will attack kimuras and americanas. Ivanov will mount, take the back & has a solid rear naked choke. I haven’t seen many people attempt to take down Ivanov, but he has been submitted by Alexander Volkov. Blagoy has six submissions in his career. His cardio isn’t the greatest, so if fighters can push the pace I do believe he will gas. He is going to be a tough out and good matchup for a young up and comer in Sakai.
This will likely be a slow-paced fight but either guy could end it with one big punch. I like Sakai more on the feet here, but I think Ivanov is the more well-rounded fighter and should look to mix in takedowns here. I probably would have lined this fight the same as the bookies did though with Sakai as a very slight favorite, so I will take him by split decision here from being the guy landing more volume on the feet, but I don’t’ want money on either side of this one.
Sakai is my preferred play here because he has the higher ceiling. I don’t see either guy scoring well in a decision win, but I think Sakai has the better KO chance and that is what I like here. I think he could get a 1st round KO as well and if that is the case we will need to have him. I don’t care for Ivanov much in this spot though, but it is scary fading HWs who can end the fight with 1 shot, so I don’t know that I will full fade, but I will be underweight to him. I don’t love Sakai either though because this is not an easy fight and Ivanov has never been knocked out, so I think he gets under 10x if he gets his hand raised via decision. If I was making 5 or less lineups, I would full fade this fight. With 10-20, I think we might need to get some exposure and for me the preferred guy is Sakai.
Winner – Augusto Sakai via Split Decision
Tyron Woodley $8,800 vs Gilbert Burns $7,400
Tyron Woodley
Age: 38
Height: 5’9
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: Team Woodley
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 9-3-1
Fight Matrix: 3
Last Fought: 1 Year 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -185
Tyron Woodley is a very cerebral fighter, he shows up with a plan and executes it to a tee. He is there to win, he does not care about putting on a show for the fans. He is one of the most athletic fighters in UFC history, and is up there with Yoel Romero for most explosive athlete in the sport. The distance he can cover, and speed and power of his overhand right is unbelievable. He has had numerous highlight reel KO’s with that punch and it’s one of the most devastating strikes in the history of MMA. That right hand gives him the ability to somewhat control distance even though he’s usually the much shorter fighter. It makes his opponents hesitant to close the distance and get in range, and he always has the right hand cocked, so he can kind of freeze his opponents and not let them get their game off with it. He did this very effectively against Stephen Thompson. He has a decent jab, and a good 1-2 when fighters close the distance. He is very fast in the pocket and catches people with the jab, straight-right hand, and they back out of the pocket and don’t want to engage there anymore. He has brutal leg kicks. He will throw a front kick to the body at times. He usually does a lot of backing up and circling in fights with his back against the cage. He doesn’t have a huge toolbox on the feet, and that’s why he doesn’t throw a lot and expose himself to many striking engagements on the feet. He has the leg kicks, the overhand and straight-right and a jab, and other than that he doesn’t look to throw much else. The thing is that right hand is such a dangerous weapon, he can get away with it while still be extremely effective and dangerous. He is a finisher, when he hurts opponents, he swarms. He does a great job of using footwork to cut his opponents off, and then bombing with the right hand. Woodley has a good chin & rarely gets hit. He has been KO’d just one time in his career. He has 7 KO/TKO’s himself.
Woodley is a division 1 national champion wrestler. He has a good double leg and is very strong and explosive. He is good at grabbing the single and driving opponents to the cage and transitioning to the double He is strong in the clinch as well and can control his opponents against the cage. He will throw nice knees in the clinch to the legs, body & head. He doesn’t go for many takedowns himself, and I don’t see him going for a lot of takedowns here. If he does get on top, he is very heavy and has a great wrestling base and top control. He likes to get in half guard and rain down elbows, he has good ground & pound and can cut his opponents open with elbows. He landed some absolutely brutal G&P elbows on Darren Till after dropping him. He ultimately was able to finish with a darce and earn his BB. He had the best takedown defense in WW history before his last match & I see him being extremely hard to takedown for Burns. Woodley’s gas tank has always been an issue for him, but he is the one with experience in five round fights.
Gilbert Burns
Age: 33
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 71”
Gym: Blackzillians
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 11-3
Fight Matrix: 9
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: +160
Gilbert Burns is a dangerous fighter. He has one punch knockout power, to compliment his world class Jiu-Jitsu. He is light on his feet & tries to be in & out. He will throw nice one-twos, along with a jab, overhand right. He has a nice left hook, dropping OAM with it. He will attack the body with straight punches & hooks. He has a solid jab, uppercut combination. He will throw heavy round kicks to the body & head. Burns is extremely explosive & fighters have to respect his overhand blitzes. Burns throws heavy low kicks & nice body kicks. He has gotten better at using a high guard & attacking the legs with big kicks. He landed a beautiful left hook that turned the lights out on Demian Maia in his last match. Burns has really improved his striking defense, but he can float his lead hand low & back up in straight lines when pressured. His power is the game changer on the feet & he has multiple one punch knockouts. He has a good chin & will take shots & return usually landing the heavier shot. He has 6 KO/TKO’s & has been finished once by strikes.
Gilbert Burns has really improved his wrestling. He is extremely physical and uses it to his advantage. He will shoot a single, push opponents, chain it into a double & take fighters on rides. He was able to slam OAM multiple times, who was one of the stronger grapplers in the 155 lb division. He will shoot nice reactive body locks & doubles in space. His timing on his takedowns is excellent. He does a good job of using the entry to circle to the back & take it from standing position or drag opponents to the mat from there. He was able to use the body lock to takedown Alexey Kunchenko, along with some well-timed shots. Kunchenko was undefeated with some of the best takedown defense in the division. When he is on top, Burns is one of the better top players in the UFC. He works very quickly & is always searching for the back. He has tremendous back control & top control overall. He will transition to mount as well, and search for armbars & rear naked chokes the whole time. He will also just stay inside his opponent’s guards and beat them up. In his last match, he was taken down, and had his back taken. He showed his truly elite Jiu-Jitsu getting out of that position vs Maia and returning to his feet. Burns has never been submitted. Burns has 7 submissions in his career. He has slowed down in previous fights and has never gone five rounds.
Woodley hasn’t fought in over a year since he lost his championship belt. He has a ton of power in his right hand and he is a great wrestler as well. My issue with him is that he doesn’t use that wrestling of his and he only lands 2.5 significant strikes per minute. Burns is the better grappler and submission artist in this fight, so I highly doubt Woodley looks to wrestle in this one, so I think it comes down to if Woodley can knock him out. I see Burns being the more active fighter and landing a higher number of strikes. Burns could also look to get this fight to the mat, but I don’t know that he will have success with that. I think this is a dog or pass fight because I have a hard time seeing Woodley win this fight without getting the knockout and if it hits the scorecards I would think Burns would have out landed him in basically every round. I think Burns is live for the knockout upset as well, so he is going to be my pick in this one.
I do not love the stack this week for cash games because I don’t see this being a high paced fight and I am not positive it will even get 100+ total. I don’t even plan on playing cash games for that reason actually. However, with this being the main event, I will be close to all in on my GPPs, mainly because I like Burns. I think any win from Burns this week would score well and probably be enough for the optimal, but with the free square we can make a case to fade the fight. I think Woodley will need to win for the fade to work, but with the ownership this fight will receive we can fade for that alone. If Woodley wins, there is a decent chance it will be by KO, but I think at his price that is what we are relying on if we are rostering him. With the free square this week people will have no issue affording him, so I think he will be close to 50% owned in this spot. I will probably go half of that or less in my personal lineups and I want to get my 50% or more on the Burns side instead. I just think Burns is the guy with the higher pace and he can win this fight by KO, sub, or decision and he is very cheap on DK. With Woodley being 38 years old and coming off one of the worst title performances in history, I don’t know where his head is at and if he doesn’t land one big KO shot I think he loses this fight.
Winner – Gilbert Burns via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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