Welcome to rebel DFS! We are all tired of staring at the same 4 walls and hopefully the alcohol rations haven’t run out. Today’s installment is the Fanduel DFS Horse Racing slate. We are back for another day of the hottest new DFS contest based off live action. I can’t wait to see what today brings.
Before we get into the slate lets cover a few basics. The slate consists of 9 races at Gulfstream Park. We want to pick as many horses that will finish in the top 4 of each race, although ideally win. A few terms to cover that I might use are:
- Beyer Speed – Relative speed of the horse for the race, track, and vs other horses.
- Win – self-explanatory.
- Place – 2nd
- Show – 3rd
- Underneath – finishing in 3rd or 4
- Bounce – couple different ways this could go but the most common is that it ran too fast and had too hard a race the previous time out that it cannot return anything close to a normal ride this time out. I’ll explain other scenarios when I see them or in slack, if you like.
Anything else will be explained on the fly. I will make recommendations for each race but you are free to deviate as you see fit.
Andddd we’re off!
Race 1
This race is a 5 furlong sprint on the turf. For this type of race at this track, we are looking for a horse that likes to run early or an overall speed horse running from the inside or middle of the starting gate. Where I’m at is:
- (3) Living Vicariously (7/2) – this horse is the top speed in the race, has a good post, and has the right running style to produce a good race. I feel like this is a safe starting choice for points and the best chance to bring home a victory. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Race 2
This 5.5 furlong trip on the dirt should generally benefit horses who like to run earlyl. Ideally we are looking at post positions from the inside towards the middle. When I speak of middle posts I am talking about post positions 4 to 7. Anything past that is the outside. Typical winning beyer speed figures are about 78.
- (5) Mystic Comin Home (6/1) – I love this horse. It’s in-form with very good speed. I am expecting this one to get bet down before the race. When comparing this horse to the favorite, their early speed is roughly comparable but the 5 has more down the stretch. This is my choice for a victory ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (6) Bibiana (8/5) – the speed is there but I think it will fail as the favorite. Its style is what could be described as a frontrunner. They love to run the horse early and hope its speed to can hold on til the finish. There is enough late speed in this race that I don’t think it takes the walk to the winner’s circle, but I could see it coming in underneath. ⭐⭐
- (10) Markistan (5/1) – while this horse has a longer run of sorts, I am liking the speed as they turn for home. Has the best late speed in the race. As long as it can avoid getting bottled up too much it should have plenty of speed to hit the board. I think there is place upside here. ⭐⭐⭐
Race 3
We’re running 6 furlongs on the dirt. An early running style should do just fine with this race. All things being equal, I am looking at the inside post positions. We want to see roughly a 76 beyer speed. One further note. Every horse but the 5 has made a drop in class for this race.
- (1) Talkthetalk (2/1) – while this horse doesn’t have a good record at this track, I like that the choice was made to drop in class and to move back to a sprint. These decisions should benefit the horse as long as it breaks well from the gate. It has plenty of speed and is versatile in terms of what kind of race it can run. The thing that sets this horse apart is its ability to maintain its speed. Hard to see a finish where this horse isn’t on the board, if not in the winner’s circle. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (3) Papa’s Little Girl (7/2) – this horse has a big kick down the stretch compared to the field. Its overall prospects will be somewhat governed by how many lengths it will have to make up but I very much like its chances to hit the board. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (6) Derby Day Zip (5/2) – [UPDATE: SCRATCHED – DO NOT PLAY] this horse is more of a closer. It likes to run from well off pace and should have plenty of energy for the stretch run. Where this horse finishes is a little up for debate. I believe that it isn’t the winner, but it should be able to score some points. If you believe that a 2nd place or better is in its future. I would rather play the 1 horse if im paying up. ⭐⭐1/2
Race 4
Race 4 is a 1 mile trip around the turf. A 79 beyer has usually been necessary to take it down. The edge will be given to the speed horses and those with late runs. The race has seen the bulk of the winner’s come from the middle post positions or the outside ones. I believe there are a few contenders here but choosing a winner here will be a little tough. My favorite plays are:
- (8) Mimina’s Team (7/2) – this horse is the favorite and is more of a speed horse. It has the top speed and it’s drop-off split is still better than most of the field. The has may be a little versatile if it has to be. This means we don’t have to rely on the perfect trip. I think it will be there in the end, but this race has a few contenders. ⭐⭐⭐
- (4) Too Sexy (4/1) – this horse is a late runner with beautiful speed. With only 1 race under its belt, I expect that we could see this horse take a step forward. This horse has speed above much of the field so I expect it to be battling at the end. ⭐⭐⭐
- (3) Cat Lady (9/2) – I think I like the 4 horse a shade more but I believe CL will be challenging at the end. I wonder if they choose to use this horse like how the jockeys have parsed its speed before. Conserving as much as possible mid race will be key. If i had to guess I think this horse ends up underneath in the end. ⭐⭐3/4
- (11) Slip Sliding Away (10/1) – I wonder if we have a spoiler on our hands. There is good speed here and the horse is built for the distance. It’s had a 2 month layoff but this trainer has had good results, historically, with this amount of time off. I don’t think the horses around the 11 will be a problem and this might be an advantageous spot in a large field. I like this horse underneath. ⭐⭐⭐
Race 5
This race will take us 6 furlongs on the dirt. I am looking to the inside and middle horses to have the edge. This race has also seen an overwhelming edge to the early runners. Average winning beyer is 81.
- (2) Memorize (8/1) – this is kinda speculative and I don’t want to have this horse as low as I do, as there is plenty of early speed, but it’s had a lot of upheaval in trainer and rider. It’s possible that this horse can improve here but who knows. I would think more underneath than win contender. ⭐⭐
- (9) Tuesday’s Rose (4/1) – I like what i see on paper with the horse only because of the field but it doesn’t have a favorable post. This is a late runner which isn’t ideal but the horses i would like have had a suspicious drop in class. This is more of a contrarian play as I can’t trust the likes of the 3 or 4 horses. Maybe it sneaks in late. ⭐⭐
- (7) Gilda F. (6/1) – [UPDATE: SCRATCHED – DO NOT PLAY] this horse has solid speed and possibly superior speed. Decent sprinter. Good post. This horse ran 2nd vs a similar crop of horses at 6.5 furlongs. I very much like its chances. ⭐⭐⭐
- (1) Salsa Rita (20/1) – I think this horse is overpriced and if there are horses that falter, this one can pick up the slack. It’s great that it gets the rail (rail winning at 20% clip) and has an early running style. Could be able to run underneath and I’ll take the value here, if you don’t like it elsewhere. ⭐⭐1/2
Race 6
We are back on the turf going 1 mile. Speed horses have had success, especially coming from the outside and middle post positions. The race typically has a good pace, with the winner gaining an 82 beyer. 3 horses fit the bill for me but tough to say who takes the glory.
- (4) Hartling (7/2) – I like that this horse seems to get stronger as the race goes on but isn’t really a late runner or a closer type. The horse also gets a strong jockey. We got a win contender over here. ⭐⭐⭐
- (9) La Rusia (8/1) – I think this horse is mis-labelled as an early runner. It can run early but it still has plenty of speed on the back end. It can also run a fairly even pace if it has to. I would label this a speed horse and I like it’s chops. It has speed and power and is certainly capable of winning this race. The horse is in good form, too. ⭐⭐⭐
- (10) I’ll Do It My Way (15/1) – this horse has only raced 6 times so it is still rather young but it seems to be growing and learning. They have tried different distances to see where this horse fits but it has a couple of solid performances at these mid distances and could be a nice value play underneath today. ⭐⭐
Race 7
We’re going 1-1/16 mile on the dirt. The horses with early or late running styles have some success. This race tends to have an inside to mid-post bias. We are looking for a moderate pace with a beyer speed of 82.
- (2) Never Forget (9/2) – last time this horse raced at a mile it was a sloppy track and it still put up a big number. It’s been tried at some lesser distances and hasn’t seemed to perform. It’s very possible this horse can improve and if it does, look out. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (7) Envoutante (3/1) – there is plenty of early speed for this horse to chase and it has a strong finish. If picking this horse, you will want to sit back and wait for the stretch cuz it should be able to make a late move on the leaders. ⭐⭐⭐
- (5) New Hope Road (6/1) – while young in racing years, there is a lot of quality here. It has plenty of speed for this field and it seems to be able to adapt to the race as it unfolds, albeit in a small sample. I am really only expecting this horse to come in underneath. ⭐⭐
Race 8
We will go back to the turf for the last two races, this one going 5 furlongs. This race favors a horse starting in the inside and middle positions and that has a speedy running style. An 84 beyer or better is what we desire.
- (4) Dixieincandyland (9/2) – a lot of speed and a big kick down the stretch ⭐⭐⭐3/4
- (7) Awsum Roar (6/1) – [UPDATE: SCRATCHED – DO NOT PLAY] top speed. Top power. In-form. My favorite horse in this race. ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (1) Smack (2/1) – with the scratch of the 7, I think there is better prospects for the 1. I didn’t initially like it as much due to the jump in class but a spot on the board just opened up so lets see if Smack can fill it. ⭐⭐⭐
- (8) Bentley’s Dream (8/1) – this horse has good speed but the problem before was that it doesn’t have quite the speed that Awsum Roar does and it didn’t have that more inside position. Now, the horse has a cleaner path and less competition. Perhaps an underneath position at the wire is in play. ⭐⭐⭐
Race 9
This is the last race of the day. An 85 beyer is desired for the 1-1/16 mile trip. We want a speed horse here and they can start on the inside or the outside.
- (14) Shamrocket (2/1) – [UPDATE: SCRATCHED – DO NOT PLAY] I can’t not love this horse. The field has some horses that have some early speed or some late speed but this horse put it all together. Hard to see myself playing any other horse here. ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- With the 14 scratched, we need a new horse. I originally went with just the 14 because it was heads and shoulders above the pack. Without the 14, we have the pack. This race just got more wide open. My decision to replace the 14 would be from 1 of:
- (10) Cardiac Kid (8/1) ⭐⭐
- (11) This Ill Defend (5/1) ⭐⭐⭐
This Ill Defend is my preferred play as it has some of the best late run and overall speed left in the field. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 11 go off as the favorite.
We can talk about other horses but these are my plays for now. I’ll see ya in the chat. Good Luck!