Notes for Tonight’s 4/16 LPL 3am ET Slate
5 game slate tonight with playoffs coming soon.
LPL
BLG (-1800) vs V5 (+700)
Another slate with V5, another slate where we roster the team that is facing them. Normally BLG should never be this large of favourites against anyone, but V5 has just been that bad this season. BLG aren’t officially eliminated yet from playoff contention but the chances are very slim. I assume they still do their best to make that happen though. BLG have played a lot better recently and have slightly shifted away from the LCK style of play they had before. Meteor is now engaged more early and it makes their team better as a whole when he is doing that. This is a great spot for BLG. Viable in all formats but of course they will be chalky.
Players to watch (BLG): Meteor. Fofo, Jinjiao
Players to watch (V5): clx, y4
FPX (-750) vs LGD (+425)
LGD have been a great underdog target for a while now, especially in recent weeks. Peanut destroys the early game, they snowball their lead and win the game in a bloody match. However, we saw what happened when Peanut went up against another elite jungler in Meteor, and their early aggression was completely stifled. LGD looked lost at that point and could not figure out how to win the game after their plans failed. Their only path to success is if Peanut completely outjungles Tian (another elite jungler) and causes mayhem early. Otherwise I think FPX will destroy LGD. FPX are still fighting for the number one seed and look much better with GimGoon in the lineup. I don’t think FPX will allow LGD to abuse their early game to that extent, give me FPX.
Players to watch (FPX): Doinb, Lwx, Tian
Players to watch (LGD): Peanut, Kramer, Killua
ES (-130) vs TES (-105)
Once again the most interesting and important game of the night comes at the end. Another long night for me I suppose. To start off with I will say this game is 50/50 and either team can come out on top. While I believe TES are the better team overall, maybe there are some kinks to be worked out with JackeyLove still fresh in the lineup. Estar have shown some new styles to their gameplay but even in their last series against OMG they still did the same “dive bot” strategy they have been using all year. I think TES will be smart enough to not let that get out of hand and I like their individual match-ups across the board (except support). Both these teams are good and this game could become an absolute bloodbath so once again I will reiterate both teams are in play. Estar are so expensive on DK that even though they are the favourite they will be the contrarian play. You basically have to pair them with a big underdog if you want a full Estar stack. I am on TES’ side not only because of their salary difference, but because with JackeyLove I think they are better as a whole.
Players to watch (ES): Wink, Cryin, ShiauC
Players to watch (TES): Knight, Jackeylove, Karsa
LCK
GRF (+120) vs HLE (+165)
This is an interesting game. HLE have nothing to play for at this point of the season and GRF are locked into relegations. In a vacuum I like HLE better even though Griffin have the best player in the series (Viper) because HLE have shown that ability to beat down some of Korea’s best teams. They have that next gear that doesn’t always come out but when it does massive upsets can happen. However, as the day has gone on I am liking Griffin more in this spot. We saw what happened last night where teams would just sub randomly and roll out different starting lineups. I think HLE are going to do that tonight. They will be practising for next split or just having fun with this last game and roll out a ton of subs. Griffin will probably use this series as a final round of practice before the relegation series and play normally. I don’t think the upside is massive for GRF even if they win, but as one of the only viable sources of salary relief tonight they make an interesting GPP option.
Players to watch (GRF): Viper, Tarzan
Players to watch (HLE): Vsta, Cuvee, Haru (beware of subs)
DRX (-650) vs APK (+380)
DRX need to win this series to secure 2nd seed. Having to play one less best of 5 against another elite team is a massive advantage, so their seeding is very important here. APK have literally nothing to play for as well, since they are safe from relegation after Sandbox lost last night. APK might do some crazy stuff and sub out their entire roster too, you just can’t know for sure. I think DragonX will approach this game with a strong mindset and take care of APK to secure their second seed. DRX are pretty cheap considering the other favourites on the slate so you can use them in Cash and probably in GPP too to save salary. These two teams are typically rather bloody by LCK standards but in a pressure filled game for DRX they may take it slower than normal. They should still win regardless.
Players to watch (DRX): Deft, Chovy, Pyosik
Players to watch (APK): Hybrid, Flawless, Ikksu
Favourite stacks: BLG > FPX > DRX > TES > ES > GRF > HLE > LGD > APK > V5