Notes for today’s 12pm ET EU Masters Slate.
This is a 6 game slate featuring top teams from their respective regional leagues. These games are Bo1 to start. One thing to note are that LEC academy teams (Fnatic Rising, Schalke Evolution) are usually teams to watch out for. They have similar coaching infrastructure and funding to their LEC teams and are usually near the top of the standings/ eventual winners. These teams were all near the top of their regional leagues but some regional leagues are better and worse than others so that context does matter.
ESB (-105) vs WIZ (-130)
eSuba has not started off the EU Masters too hot with two straight losses to Mousesports and Fnatic Rising. These two teams are very tough opponents so I will not take too much away from them as eSuba were not expected to be able to compete with these teams in the first place. Neither of these games have been close and they seem to be outmatched on all fronts against those two teams. This game is a matchup that is winnable however. eSuba represents the Czech league which is one of the weaker leagues in the tournament, but Energypot Wizards is from the Balkan region, which is also one of the notoriously weak regions in the EU Masters. Typically eSuba is led by Jejky, but he has had some atrocious games so far. This will be a game where Jejky and eSuba can start to turn this tournament in the right direction.
Energypot Wizards were expected to be another bottom feeder team at this tournament and it looked like that would be the case after their first game against Mouz. They got absolutely destroyed by Mouz in a game that wasn’t particularly close. However when faced against another top EUM team in Fnatic Rising in their last match, the Wizards had a bloodbath against a top contender. They got down early due to some early game skirmishes and managed to pull the game back in a massive 50+ kill game. This was a slate breaker and it was nice to see that competitive edge from a supposed weaker team in the EUM. I liked what I saw against Fnatic Rising but it is to be seen whether or not WIZ can keep that up. Lukezy and Spooky have been massive for them so far and I am curious to see how this team moves forward.
WIZ are the favourites according to Vegas odds, and I agree with that assessment. They managed to show up against one of the top teams in the EUM while eSuba faltered against the same competition. However, ESB are priced as favourites on DK and WIZ are priced as underdogs so I like this spot a lot for WIZ.
Players to watch: (ESB): Jejky (JNG), Dany (ADC), Rufus (SUP)
Players to watch (WIZ): Lukezy (MID), Spooky (JNG), Vzz (ADC)
MOUZ (-180) vs FNC.R (+130)
During the first two games of the EUM, Mouz look like a very solid team. In their two games against “weaker” opponents in ESB and WIZ, they have taken care of business both times in clean fashion. They are the #2 seed from Germany remember, one of the best regional leagues in the EU. At this point in time they do look like a potential contender for a high placement in the EUM. LIDER has lived up to expectations with him being excellent so far and Promisq and Jesklaa are two former LEC players holding down the bot lane. This team is very well rounded and has been solid so far.
FNC.R have made the top 4 at EU masters 2 splits in a row, and are looking to make at least that this time around as well. They started out with a dominant game against eSuba and were expected to have a similar result against WIZ in their last match. It all started out well for them, with many kills early on in the game and they developed a sizable early game lead. However they started getting picked off and were losing team-fights, and eventually the game became a mess. When fiesta games happen it bodes very well for the underdog since there is less structure in the game and WIZ took advantage. I would not knock FNC.R down too much based on a single loss to WIZ since they kept within reach for most of the game, but it is something to watch out for.
Mouz are rightfully favourites since FNC.R did lose an “easier” game but this game is very competitive. FNC.R has come out with a very aggressive style while Mouz has played more controlled. Typically when two teams of similar skill battle, the early game aggressors can break open the game and snowball from there. However FNC.R showed that even with an early lead it does not mean certain victory. This game should be close and while I think Mouz are in slightly better form right now, there is big upside to FNC.R and they make a great GPP option.
Players to watch (Mouz): LIDER (MID), Jesklaa (ADC), Promisq (SUP)
Players to watch (FNC.R): Dan (JNG), xMatty (ADC), Bravado (SUP)
VGIA (-475) vs DK (+300)
Vodafone Giants should be one of the favourites at this tournament. They come from the powerful Spanish league and have been a well known commodity in EUM for a while now. They came out against a tough opponent in LDLC OL and had a bloody match, which is exactly what we want to see from a DFS perspective. Lamabear, Pretty and Attila are the stars of this team and they all showed it in their last match. These 3 make for one of the most deadly top 3’s that we have in the tournament and in this game they should be free to run the map once again.
Defusekids are a Benelux team that came through the play-in stages. I did not expect much from them coming into this tourney and my lack of confidence was somewhat validated in their first match against ASO Rogue. They picked a scaling composition but just surrendered everything on the map. They slowly got choked out of the game without every trying to fight back, and AGO Rogue didn’t need to fight since they were getting everything handed to them anyway. This lack of pro-activity is something I don’t like to see from an underdog team, I like the ones who understand they may be weaker in a game sense but they fight and make games scrappy in the hopes that they can find a new win condition. What I saw from Defusekids in their first game was not an encouraging sign, and they are against an even tougher opponent now.
Players to watch (VGIA): Lamabear (JNG), Pretty (MID), Attila (ADC)
Players to watch (DK): Chapapi (MID), Goose (ADC), Alois (TOP)
LDLC (-115) vs RGO (-120)
This is another game where LDLC are priced as favourites on DK and RGO are priced as rather large underdogs. This game is very close so RGO are made more attractive as a target for that reason.
LDLC OL are the French region #2 seed and they are typically known as quite a good team. Their roster is different from past years but they still have a lot of talent and potential to place well in this tournament. In their first game as VGIA, they did lose in quite a bloody game but they showed good fight. It was a long game that was rather close despite the kill disaparity and TynX on Trundle had a massive performance to keep them in the game. I think this team is quite good and they happened to face a top contender in their first game.
AGO Rogue did defeat Defusekids in their first match. The Polish representatives played a very clean game with very little fighting because they didn’t need to. They were being handed all the objectives for free and they played it smart by not risking anything and taking the easy win. This time around it will not be that easy. LDLC OL are much more willing to fight and are a very talented team themselves too. Woolite is the star player for AGO Rogue and he will need to step up in order for RGO to win this game.
Odds and DK pricing favour RGO, but I like LDLC OL to win this one. I like their style of play a bit better and I think they have higher quality players. It is still a very close game and since RGO are so cheap they make for another fantastic GPP option.
Players to watch (LDLC): TynX (JNG), Hades (ADC), YellowStar (SUP)
Players to watch (RGO): Woolite (ADC), Mystiques (SUP), Czekolad (MID)
BTXL (-135) vs GL (-105)
BTXL came out with a pretty disappointing first game against GamersOrigin. They drafted themselves a team composition that was extremely hard to execute and they really could not find the right fights with the team they had chosen for themselves. I do not know if this will be a reoccurring issue for the team, but when they play standard I think they are very solid. Their best player is Deadly and paired with KaSing this bot lane is basically the entire BTXL team. BTXL did face a tough opponent in their first game, but GL are not that much weaker, if at all. They will need to bounce back to show they are a quality team in EUM.
GamerLegion are the 3rd best team from the German league I talk so much about, and they looked just as good as the 2 teams above them in their first match. Granted it was against the weakest team in their group (YDN), but they absolutely destroyed them. It was not even close at all. Hjarnan is known for playing mages in the bot lane and they came out with a very unique set of champions in the bot lane. The game was won from draft as they had massive counter picks and flawless execution against the YDN composition, and it was nice to see GamerLegion take care of business in such convincing fashion against a weaker opponent.
From the first game BTXL showed some draft weaknesses and GL showed draft domination. It is far too early to judge whether or not this will be a recurring theme for both of these teams but either way this game should be a very competitive match. I like GamerLegion for the upset win here but I do think that BTXL are a quality team and will put up a competitive match no matter what. Feel free to use either side in GPP.
Players to watch (BTXL): Deadly (ADC), KaSing (SUP), Send0o (TOP)
Players to watch (GL): Hjarnan (ADC), Rabble (JNG), Nite (MID)
GO (-575) vs YDN (+355)
This is most likely going to be the least competitive game on the slate. YDN looked pitiful in their first match and looked lost at what to do when they weren’t ahead early. In their domestic league they would almost always get first blood, first tower and snowball games effectively. The Italian regional league is much weaker than some of these other leagues, including the French league where GO are coming from. When YDN get behind I do not think they know how to come back. This does not look good for them against a tough opponent like GO and I expect GO to win this game rather easily. GO had a very clean win against another tough opponent in BTXL, so this game should be a lot easier for them and they are massive favourites for that reason.
Players to watch (GO): bluerzor (JNG), XDSMILEY (ADC), Toucouille (MID)
Players to watch (YDN): Phantomles (MID), Endz (ADC)
This is a slate where I like a lot of the underdogs, there are still some large favourites that I like but there are plenty of options with how these games are laid out and how DK have priced them. These are my favourite underdog picks
1. WIZ (DK underdog)
2. GL
3. LDLC
4. FNC.R