Notes for Today’s 4/26 12pm ET CBLOL Slate
4 Game Slate. This is the last set of games for the CBLOL before the playoffs start so these games are still Best of 1. The top 2 spots of the playoffs are already decided (VK and FLA respectively), and there is a 4 way tie for the last 2 playoff spots so these games do have serious implications for some teams. I do not believe starting lineups are released for this league either, so be wary of players that have substitutes.
PRG (-245) vs RDP (+177)
PRG are the largest favourite on the slate and for good reason. They are against RDP who are the worst team in the league this split with a 6-14 record going into the last game. PRG are in the logjam of teams fighting for the final playoff spot so there will be no funny business for them in this match-up. PRG have been a bit up and down in the last couple of weeks for the season but in their most important game thus far they get a relatively easy match-up. While PRG are taking this game seriously, RDP may not be. Other than the fact that they are locked into the last place spot in the league, they also have substitutes. In their last game against League #1 VK, they moved their normal mid laner to ADC and subbed in a brand new mid laner. They did happen to win that game against VK, but more on that later. I think PRG are the “safest” pick on the slate are viable for me in all formats.
Players to watch (PRG): Aloned (MID), Yampi (JNG), fNb (TOP)
Players to watch (RDP): Sephis (JNG), Kraystel (MID)
PNG (-131) vs FUR (-101)
This game has basically even odds so it indicates a close match. On paper I like PNG’s roster a lot more. They have experienced veterans who have played in some of the top leagues around the world and are accompanied by very skilled native Brazilian players. Both these teams are fighting for a playoff spot in this game so it will be very intense. This can lead to a slower game since when teams are playing with a lot on the line it can tend to slow the pace of the game. These teams have also been on different trajectories coming into this game; PNG won their last match against PRG, but prior to that had lost 4 in a row and 5 of their last 6. It looks like they had hit a wall even with all of their talent but maybe with them finally getting a win in their last match it will help them gain some of their confidence back. FUR on the other hand have been very good recently. In their last 7 games they have won 5 of them, and the 2 losses were to the top 2 teams in the league. They have beaten everyone else. It is hard to pick a side in this match based on these circumstances, but I keep ending up leaning to the side of PNG. In chaotic leagues like the CBLOL I look to teams with the best individual players because they can have a bigger impact than in other more traditional leagues. To me, PNG has the better overall roster and despite their weaker form recently I think this is a good spot for them. Both these teams can be used in lineup construction but I have a slight lean towards PNG.
Players to watch (PNG): SeongHwan (JNG), Key (SUP), TinOwns (MID)
Players to watch (FUR): Minerva (JNG), Anyyy (MID), Alternative (ADC)
VK (-159) vs KBM (+119)
This game could be a potential trap game. At first glance, you see the top team in the league that has been at the top for the entire season facing off against a middle of the pack team that started off terribly but has picked up the pace recently. At these odds a lot of people may see a lot of value on the VK side due to this and slam them in DFS as well. This game however is not a standard game. In a standard game I would be on VK’s side most of the time, as most people would. They have been the best team in the league all season and have that consistency that is often lacking in lower level leagues. The reason this is not a standard game is because of VK’s recent game against RDP. VK had already locked first place in the league at that point of the season and they decided to switch things up. They subbed out their starting jungler for a substitute playing his first game, and they picked some champions they had never used before. They did not take this game seriously and they got blown out of the water, even by the worst team in the league. There is potential for that again. Once again we do not get confirmed rosters for the CBLOL so we won’t know for sure if they will continue subbing in their new jungler or not, but I think there is a good chance that happens again. KBM on the other hand, are red hot coming into this game. They have rattled off 5 wins in a row and have managed to make something of a previously disappointing season. They are a part of the 4 team logjam fighting for the final playoff spots so for them there won’t be any messing around. If they do catch VK in one of these throwaway games from them, I really like the chance KBM wins.
Players to watch (KBM): Parang (TOP), Ceos (SUP), DudsTheBoy (ADC)
Players to watch (VK): NosFerus (MID), Professor (SUP), Klaus (ADC)
FLA (-184) vs INTZ (+137)
This final game is weirdly similar to the game that I just wrote about. We now have the 2nd place team that has locked their position already facing the 7th (second worst) team in the league that has also locked their position already. I can almost sense this game devolving into a fiesta and that makes it interesting from a DFS perspective. FLA did something similar to what VK did in their last game. They did not substitute any players but they picked a few champions that they had never picked before this season and they got worked by KBM. They weren’t completely off-meta picks or anything but clearly champions that FLA were experimenting with and it was the first pick all season for some of these champions. The reason I do not instantly give the advantage to the underdog in this game like I did the last is because INTZ can also end up picking things they aren’t used to and experimenting this game. It is different from the VK vs KBM game because of this. KBM were fighting for their playoff lives in the previous game and weren’t messing around, but since both these teams are locked into their spots I can see both teams not giving it 100%. If this is the case I prefer FLA. They are the better team on paper and have shown a better performance throughout the regular season. I also believe them to have superior individuals which would matter a lot in a “for fun” game. I will take FLA in this one as my pick to win. INTZ also literally has a substitute for every single position so we have no idea who they would run out in a meaningless game.
Players to watch (INTZ): Shini (JNG), Hauz (MID), micaO (ADC)
Players to watch (FLA): Ranger (JNG), Absolut (ADC), Goku (MID)
At the end of the day, this is CBLOL. No one team is massively better than the others and anyone can beat anyone on any given day. All of these game spreads are pretty close, and I could see a way for all the underdogs to win. Given some of the playoff implications and motivation factors there can be some important takeaways that help you lean one way or the other, but most of these teams are firmly in play. These are my favourite underdog plays:
1. KBM
2. FUR
3. INTZ