Hello DFS Army members and welcome to a new idea I’ve had here for the 2020 NBA season. With the way data and info is available to all DFS players, all of the “great plays” are pretty easy to identify, thus leading to them all being highly owned in your big field tournaments and double-ups. This article is here to try and help you identify some of those plays that are flying under the radar, whether it be from breaking news, a certain player being out on an opposing team that improves a matchup, or simply someone who has just gone overlooked. I’ll utilize the Research Station and Domination Station and Ownership Projection tools we have here at DFS Army, as I truly believe they are the best in the business.
Tonight we have a really juicy 6 game slate, so ownership can likely be tighter on smaller slates like these. Here’s my process for finding some of these GPP pivots:
The first thing I will look at is the Research Station and our all in one comprehensive And1 rating. I play mostly on FanDuel so we’ll use their salaries for consistency in the article. First look gives us this:
This gives us a preliminary idea of who some of our top plays are going to be here tonight, they’re also likely going to be popular. From there I go and sort at each position by projected ceiling and we get:
I use ceiling for a reason, considering this article is focused on GPPs, you want to have guys with the highest ceilings (a.k.a. can score the most fantasy points), but we also have to keep in mind, that when a guy has a high ceiling, his floor is usually lower and more volatile. But in GPPs, you have to risk it if you want the biscuit. Looking at ceiling is also crucial because it can help us identify a pivot right there based on our ownership projections. Now, from here, I’ll look at who is popping for value, since we’ll need some value if we want to fit in some of these higher priced studs/pivots into our lineups:
Value can also help you identify the chalk, as those that are dirt cheap with high value ratings will likely be chalky, especially in cash games. Now comes the crucial step, ownership and identifying the chalk. With everyone having access to this data or an optimizer, certain players will be more popular than others. We have to be able to identify those plays that can still smash for us at a much lower ownership if we want to take down GPPs. It’s quite easy, go to the Domination Station and you can sort by highest projected ownership. Here are the top 3 highest owned per position today:
This gives us our chalk at each position for the day. Now that we have identified it, we can find ways to pivot off of it.
My GPP Pivots:
Trae Young over Luka Doncic- I know I know, this isn’t much of a pivot, but Trae has a similar upside given the matchup, as the Knicks get torched by opposing PGs and Trae has also had some success against them in the past. Both their ownerships should be high, but you get a nice savings here for a similar ceiling. Especially where Trae is projected at only about 2 FPs less than Luka and lower ownership, Trae is definitely more volatile though but I really love his upside here for a lower ownership than Luka.
Jrue Holiday over Jimmy Butler- I know he’s a little more expensive than Jimmy, but the matchup is there and he’s trending everywhere in our models. When it comes down to the two of them:
Jrue has been crushing Jimmy in every statistical category here, and he gets a better matchup in a game that has the highest total on the night and comes in at a 8.5% projected ownership, while Butler and his bum heel have an ownership projection of almost 40%! I’ll take the healthy guy in the game with the higher total who has been heating up.
Harrison Barnes over Will Barton- Harrison Barnes never really jumps off the page at you, but he’s been consistent as hell according to our model:
He’s averaging 5.6x value over his last 3 and his minutes haven’t dipped below 34 per game. We also get the fastest paced game of the night, with the highest total, and it is the hammer game. Barton draws a tougher matchup than usual here, and I really believe that Barnes will outscore him tonight. Oh, and Barnes also has the highest And1 rating of any SF on the slate.
Richaun Holmes over Maxi Kleber- With Porzingis out tonight, Kleber will become uber chalk and for good reason. However, Willie-Cauley Stein is probable tonight, which will take away some of Kleber’s minutes as he won’t be the only guy they have to play the 5 tonight now. Holmes averages 1.2 FPPM and while he is on a minutes limit, I still think that he can outscore Kleber if he gets off to a hot start and comes at a projected 9% ownership, compared to 30%.
Steven Adams over Mitchell Robinson- Rudy Gobert missed shoot around this morning and is now questionable with an illness. This would be a huge boost to Adams’ matchup as he would have to deal with Tony Bradley instead of Rudy Gobert, and Tony Bradley is not as gifted defensively. Mitchell Robinson is also still getting over an illness and has Bobby Portis playing well right behind him, so a pivot to Adams makes sense here. Adams will also likely see more minutes than Robinson as well so the floor is a bit safer.
Everyone, NBA is very volatile with late scratches so please pay extra attention to Breaking News today! Stay on your toes!
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
