Welcome to rebel DFS! We are all tired of staring at the same 4 walls and hopefully the alcohol rations haven’t run out. Today’s installment is the Fanduel DFS Horse Racing slate. IMO, this day is long overdue.
Before we get into the slate lets cover a few basics. The slate consists of 9 races at Gulfstream Park. The races are 6 through 14. There are a lot of good horses showing up to race in an empty track. We want to pick as many horses that will finish in the top 4 of each race, although ideally win. A few terms to cover that I might use are:
- Beyer Speed – Relative speed of the horse for the race, track, and vs other horses.
- Win – self-explanatory.
- Place – 2nd
- Show – 3rd
- Underneath – finishing in 3rd or 4
- Bounce – couple different ways this could go but the most common is that it ran too fast and had too hard a race the previous time out that it cannot return anything close to a normal ride this time out. I’ll explain other scenarios when I see them or in slack, if you like.
Anything else will be explained on the fly. I will make recommendations for each race but you are free to deviate as you see fit.
Now…
Race 6
This race is 1-⅛ miles on the turf. For this type of race at this track, we are looking at a speed horse running from the rail or the outside. Where I’m at is:
- (2) Bodexpress (8/1) – has a real good shot at hitting the board. This horse has some of the best early speed in the race and while I don’t think a win is in the cards but coming in underneath looks quite possible. Overall, I think this is a safe-ish play to start off the day, but I could see some ownership here for a former derby horse. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (6) American Tattoo (3/1) – normally i don’t like horses with long layoffs. I try to avoid them with them being less in form than usual. This horse has endurance and speed, routinely running longer than the 1-1/8 mile that will be required today. When last run at this distance, AT put up a time faster than any of the other horses. Running the shorter distance and a return to dirt should be beneficial for this horse and maybe that is enough to offset the 2 month hiatus. ⭐⭐⭐1/2
- (10) Rare Form (15/1) – being ridden by a hot jockey and I love the pedigree. The running style is suitable for this race and the horse shouldn’t have too tough a time getting good position from the outside. There is some win upside here. ⭐⭐⭐
- (3) You’re To Blame (7/2) – the favorite in this race but I’m not too fond of the spot. While I like the skill, I don’t like that it’s been over 5 months since this horse has seen competition. I am downgrading this horse but it is in play. If I’m looking for a 3 dollar horse, I’d rather go elsewhere. ⭐⭐
- (9) Realm (6/1) – hasn’t raced in over 3 months and that’s not ideal but there is some speed there. In this crop of horses, it definitely can run a decent race. ⭐
Race 7
This 1 mile trip on the turf should generally benefit horses who like to push late or have overall speed. The late ones hang back like 6 lengths and they need to have a big late kick. The speed horses are as they sound and can run for quite a while. Typical winning beyer speed figures are about 83.
- (5) Cheermeister (7/2) – my favorite play from this race. Has the speed to run and drops in class. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (7) Walk in Marrakesh (6/1) – speed is right and there is a drop in class. ⭐⭐⭐
- Seducer (8) (8/1), She’s My Type (9) (5/1), Stunning Sky (2) (12/1) – these are speculative plays. Of the speculative plays, Seducer is my favorite. Seducer has shown good speed and will be on Lasix for the first time. A horse on lasix for the first time tends to see a boost. It might be enough to offset the layoff. ⭐⭐
Race 8
We’re running 7 furlongs on the dirt. An early running style should do just fine with this race. I don’t like too many horses here so this is the value race for me. These horses go against the typical style or post position because the other horses are off long layoffs and/or moving up in class.
- (9) Yorkton (20/1) – drops in class and is eligible to improve. That would bring the expected beyer in line with typical winning speed. Also the running style suits the race. ⭐
- (10) He Hate Me (8/1) – a horse with a late running style but it also has speed at the top of the race. Should stay just off the leaders and just get stronger as the race goes on. Hot jockey on board, too. ⭐⭐1/2
- (11) Frosted Grace (20/1) – one of the fastest horses in the field. I expect this horse to get bet down from 20/1 as the race draws nearer. This is my favorite play of the race, especially looking at the salary. ⭐⭐⭐
Race 9
We’re going 1 mile on the turf. This is a tough one for me to grasp. An 89 beyer has usually been necessary to take it down but style doesn’t seem to matter as much. Early and late running styles have had success. My favorite plays are:
- (6) La Signare (8/1) – raced tougher horses last time out at a longer distance. Now this horse is dropping in class. Let’s see if the horse’s more consistent running style helps against the weaker competition. ⭐
- (7) Getmotherarose (6/1) – if not paying up for the favorite, this is where I would want to look. Has drawn a good post assignment for the race and has a good running style. Another horse dropping in style and has a solid pedigree for the trip. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (2) Zofelle (9/2) – the favorite for the race. next to Getmotherarose, zofelle has the strongest late kick in the field. That will come in handy since this horse is more of a closer. The horse likes to sit back early and really make its move down the stretch. I don’t think zofelle takes a trip to the winner’s circle but can score points. ⭐⭐
Race 10
The 2nd longest race of the day takes us 1-⅜ miles around the turf. A variety of styles and post positions have seen success. The race is so long that it’s not as important as when you make your mid-race move to best position for the stretch run. We still want a little speed. Average winning beyer is 93.
- (6) Mean Mary (3/1) – if paying up in this race, this is my choice. Less of a layoff and this horse may prefer the longer races. Some of its best races have come at 1-⅛ miles or longer. ⭐⭐⭐
- (2) Kelsey’s Cross (10/1) – a little bit of a speculative play. The horse seems to be improving recently but the last 2 races were at a shorter distance. KC is no stranger to the longer races so I don’t think the distance will be an issue. Let’s hope KC can build of the recent success because I think there is more room for improvement.⭐
Race 11
We are back on the dirt going 1-1/16 miles. Early running styles have had success, especially coming from the inside to middle post positions. The race is fast, with the winner gaining a 95 beyer. 3 horses fit the bill for me but tough to say who takes the glory.
- (4) Lake Avenue (9/2)- comes in as the 2nd favorite. LA has raced 4 times with 3 wins and a 4th in its most recent trip. I believe the horse bounced in its last race and can return a better trip this go around. This horse is a win contender. ⭐⭐⭐
- (5) Spice is Nice (3/1) – has speed and power and is certainly capable of winning this race. ⭐⭐⭐
- (9) Tonalist’s Shape (5/2) – the favorite in this race and has the speed and power to take a walk to the winner’s circle. The post is tougher but not insurmountable. ⭐⭐⭐
Race 12
We are back on the turf going 1.5 miles. The horses with a late running style tend to have some success. With a race this long, you won’t see the breakneck run full out. The early horses will want to get out and set the pace and then bring the pace of the race back a bit to conserve what they can for the late run. This type of trip can benefit the late runners because they want to run a slower pace early anyway. This race tends to have a little bit of a rail bias but I wouldn’t count out a horse coming from the middle posts. I am likely paying up in this race.
- (1) Channel Cat (9/2)- this is my favorite horse for this race, if looking for an upset. The speed is undeniable. CC has good results at this length. I’m not too concerned with the 2 months since the last race as this field isn’t exactly that strong. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (3) Spooky Channel (20/1) – similar pedigree as the previous horse but is almost 5 times the odds. The style suits the race and, if not spending the extra dollar, this horse provides the best value that I can see. I don’t see a victory but returning points is certainly possible. ⭐⭐
- (9) Zulu Alpha (3/5) – the favorite starting at ⅗ odds. This is the overwhelming favorite. This horse has speed for days and has the most power of all the horses. ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Race 13
We will stay on the turf for a 1 mile race. This race has shown that a horse starting in the middle or outside and has a late running style has a leg up on the competition. A 96 beyer or better is what we desire.
- (8) Dr. Edgar (20/1) – I don’t mind taking a flyer here. Dr. Edgar has shown speed before and is shortening its distance. It could improve enough to hit the board. If you don’t need the savings, then no need shoot for the moon as there are relatively safer picks. ⭐
- (10) Sombeyay (7/2)- I think this is the pick for this race, as the favorite. The speed is there and has a hot jockey riding along. It’s a packed field but this is a speed horse with the ability and desire to get out quick. This will be a popular horse given its results. ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (14) Halladay (10/1) – I said the outside could have a good ride and here is a horse with not a crazy amount of speed around it and has finished top 3 in 7 of its 8 races. The horse is more powerful than Somebayay but isn’t quite as fast. Halladay has a shot to win if it can improve slightly but this horse has plenty enough class to find some points for your lineup. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Race 14
This is the race that everyone will be waiting for. This is the Florida Derby. In a normal year, this is a big prep race for the Kentucky Derby. We are back on the dirt for a 1-⅛ mile route. Speed kills in a derby prep like this and today will be no different. Typically it takes a 103 beyer to take it down; and, while the rail is always a good run to have, we see that the outside post positions can have success. With many of these horses not having the necessary speed, I see 3 horses that have a shot.
- (1) As Seen On TV (12/1) – a horse on the rail who likes to run has an advantage. I think this horse can improve upon its last trip but how much remains to be seen. ⭐⭐
- (7) Tiz The Law (6/5) – this is the favorite based on its last trip. TTL ran a huge race last time out and I’m wondering if this isn’t a bounce spot. This horse at less than its best is still better than most of the field. ⭐⭐⭐
- (12) Ete Indien (4/1) – I think this horse really has something and i like it to win. It’s consistent and is more powerful than TTL. My favorite play of the day here when we only get it at 2 bucks. Yes, please! ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
That’s the day. Best of luck with your lineups and let me know if you have any questions about these or other horses I did not mention.