Welcome to rebel DFS! We are all tired of staring at the same 4 walls and hopefully the alcohol rations haven’t run out. Today’s installment is the Fanduel DFS Horse Racing slate. Yesterday was great! Congratulations to the winners! I can’t wait to see what today brings.
Before we get into the slate lets cover a few basics. The slate consists of 10 races at Gulfstream Park. After yesterday, these horses will leave you scratching your head. We want to pick as many horses that will finish in the top 4 of each race, although ideally win. A few terms to cover that I might use are:
- Beyer Speed – Relative speed of the horse for the race, track, and vs other horses.
- Win – self-explanatory.
- Place – 2nd
- Show – 3rd
- Underneath – finishing in 3rd or 4
- Bounce – couple different ways this could go but the most common is that it ran too fast and had too hard a race the previous time out that it cannot return anything close to a normal ride this time out. I’ll explain other scenarios when I see them or in slack, if you like.
Anything else will be explained on the fly. I will make recommendations for each race but you are free to deviate as you see fit.
Now…
Race 1
This race is a 5 furlongs sprint on the turf. For this type of race at this track, we are looking for a horse that likes to run early or an overall speed horse running from the inside or middle of the starting gate. Where I’m at is:
- (3) Holly Hill (9/2) – this horse is starting to round into being a sprinter and gets a favorable starting position. Has done its best work at this distance and seems to be improving. There is win upside in this field. ⭐⭐⭐
- (8) Cookie Cove – definitely a sprinter, as CC has been running almost exclusively at this distance. Has the best beyer speed in the field. The run could be a little tough. Win upside is there but it may be more likely this horse just hits the board. ⭐⭐
Race 2
This 1 mile trip on the dirt should generally benefit horses who like to run early or have overall speed. Ideally we want to stay out of the middle, but there is a wide range of horse so it’s not a hard and fast rule for this race. Typical winning beyer speed figures are about 83.
- (1) Valley Date – the jockey is not the best but the horse has so much ability. In 3 trips on the dirt, Valley Date has a win and a place to show for its efforts. There is speed for the trip and a great starting position. The question will be “how does this run?”. In the past it has been ridden just off the pace and it has been sat back in the field. If the jockey wants to get up near the lead, a top 2 finish is very possible. ⭐⭐⭐1/2
- (3) Vicky Apple (6/1) – Vicky Apple has done some good work on the dirt. I could see this horse being able to run with the best this field has to offer. The speed is there to hit the board. ⭐⭐⭐
- (7) Brookes All Mine (5/1) – this might be my favorite horse of the bunch. This horse is in excellent form. I don’t think the starting position will be a problem, as the horse like run at the pace and there isn’t speed around it. Win contender. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (12) Enlisting (7/2) – great spot for a horse with speed and room to run. Win contender for sure as it has a great beyer for the race. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Race 3
We’re running 1 mile on the turf. A late running style should do just fine with this race. All things being equal, I am looking at the middle post positions, but there is class elsewhere and the trip they get will determine if they can break from a less than favorable spot to find enough room to showcase that class. We want to see roughly a 79 beyer speed.
- (2) Tizahra (7/2) – this horse has plenty of speed and has great times. The thing that sets this horsebapart is its ability to maintain its speed. Hard to see a finish where this horse isn’t on the board, if not in the winner’s circle. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (6) Ocean Fire (5/2) – this horse hasn’t raced in 2 months but other horses in this field have had longer breaks. In that last race, this horse failed as the favorite. That aside, it’s running style is favorable for this race and I would expect it to be challenging for the win ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (9) New Hope Road (8/1) – this horse has only been racing a short while but there is plenty to like. Good speed. Good pedigree. What gives me a little pause is that this horse has yet to race on turf. This will make me downgrade it a bit but there is enough talent to score you points if you don’t want to pay up in this race. ⭐⭐1/2
Race 4
We’re going 6 furlongs on the dirt. An 88 beyer has usually been necessary to take it down. Early running styles has had success. Many of these horses are just starting out for the first time and I will be fading them. Normally id stick with the rail or at least middle of the racers, as they have had success, but the class of the race looks to be on the outside. My favorite plays are:
- (13) Starlit Daydream (5/2) – this horse runs early and looks to have the pace to finish. 16 horse field and a lot of unknowns gives me some pause with an outside favorite but I’ll be shocked if this horse isn’t in the top 4. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (14) Prairie Wings (3/1) – this horse doesn’t have an early running style but being on the outside might be a blessing being out of the congestion. This horse has some serious kick down the stretch. This is based off one race but can only use what we know. ⭐⭐⭐
Race 5
This race will take us 1 mile around the turf. I am not necessarily tied to a style. Typically a late style is desired but I don’t think there are any classy late runners in this field. Average winning beyer is 80.
- (1) Bean Counter (5/2) – I love everything about this horse. It’s very possible that this horse loves these mid-distance races. This is where it’s done its best work. Add to it that this horse comes from good stock. Horses by Into Mischief are in high demand and the rider is hot right now. Win contender. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (9) I Am Magical (4/1) – this is a semi-speculative play and it underscores how I feel about this field. This horse isn’t in good form and could be the reason why it’s dropping in class. The speed is there but let’s see if it can get back on track. I do think it has enough to hit the board. ⭐⭐
Race 6
We are back on the dirt going 7 furlongs. Early running styles have had success, especially coming from the inside to middle post positions. The race is fast, with the winner gaining a 92 beyer. 2 horses fit the bill for me but tough to say who takes the glory. This race has a lot of unknowns and the horses i like are breaking from the outside.
- (13) Ashiham (6/1) – comes in as speculative play for me. This horse might have enough speed but the jockey has to make some decisions. It might be a lot to ask coming from the outside in this field, but the kick down the stretch can get it scoring points. I wish this horse was 1 dollar not 2. ⭐
- (15) Expensive Style (3/1) – this is my favorite horse in a field of uncertainty. It has speed and power and is certainly capable of winning this race. The horse is in good form, too. ⭐⭐⭐
Race 7
We are back on the turf going 1 mile. The horses with a late running style tend to have some success, but a speed horse will work, too. This race tends to have an inside to mid bias. We are looking for a moderate pace with a beyer speed of 86
- (8) Castagno (5/2) – this horse is the favorite and has enough ability to do the deed. Win is in play but hitting the board is likely. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (1) Blazing Desire (3/1) – I think the numbers are a little misleading. We see the 79s and think this is slow, but I think it could have been more a race pace issue. I think this horse has enough for the field and it’s got a solid trainer and a solid jockey. I think it could contend for the win but I’ll settle for the board. ⭐⭐⭐
Race 8
We will stay on the turf for a 1-1/16 mile race. This race has shown that a horse starting in the outside positions and has a late running style has a leg up on the competition. We won’t discount the horses with the early running style either but they have to be able to handle the race. A 92 beyer or better is what we desire.
- (12) Timmy (10/1) – this horse is dropping in class due to poor form but it does have a good rider. I would be looking for it to come in underneath. It’s late kick isn’t spectacular so it’s gonna take a smart ride to bear fruit. ⭐⭐
- (9) Ambassador Jim (8/1) – I really like this horse. Its top gear is staggering. The problem is it’s like a shot of NOS. Use it wisely, please. More likely as an underneath play than win contender. ⭐⭐⭐
- (5) Vettori Kin (7/2) – this is a win contender but I get this funny feeling that it won’t. Great speed and can maintain it over a distance but has spent plenty of time running longer distances. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Race 9
This is the last race on the dirt for the day. A 92 beyer is desired for the 1 mile trip. This race sees a rail bias for speedy horses.
- (4) Viva Forever – this horse is in good form and has some of the best speed in the field. I mentioned a rail bias but there isnt much on the rail so I imagine the 3 horse goes to the front and Viva settles off the 3. If so, VF has plenty to overtake the 3 when it makes its move. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (6) Believe Indeed – plenty of speed for this horse to chase and it tends to get stronger as the race goes on. I like it to hit the board.⭐⭐⭐
Race 10
The last race of the day sends us back to the turf for a 1 mile jaunt. Its a slower race with a typical beyer of 79. Late running horses can take advantage here. This is where I want to get my value from. There is uncertainty yet again with these horses and I’m looking to see who we can reasonably predict.
- (9) Longpants Required (20/1) – the horse should be able to handle this field. Its dropping in class and, despite a not so good finish in its first trip at a mile, that was its first race. It has learned plenty since and I think finishing underneath if it can keep from getting bottled up is very possible.
We can talk about other horses but these are my plays for now. Feel free to get weird if you want as there are a lot of first time starters. I’ll do my best to help there if that’s where you want to go. Good Luck!