Hello everyone and welcome to my “Trust The Process” article where we will be taking an in-depth look at the Research Station to help find plays on tonight’s 9-game slate! The goal is to help make a solidified process everyone can follow to crush cash games and tournaments alike. You can find me on Twitter @AUFan30 or in Slack throughout most of the day if you have any questions!
Point Guards
The first thing I do when looking for players to build around is sort by And1 rating. The And1 rating is an all-encompassing metric unique to the DFSArmy that factors in several different columns, including aDVP, Ceiling, Floor, USG%, etc. I like to keep track of the Top 5 players from each position. Take note of these guys and see if they stay high on the list of the other metrics we will look at.
Next, we will sort by Floor for cash games. When we do this, we see that Kyrie stays up top and the Top 5 remains the same.
For GPP’s we will sort by Ceiling. The Ceiling is the number we can expect these guys to hit 15 – 20% of the time if everything goes right for them. Doing this, we see that Young moves into the top spot. We also notice the Top 5 doesn’t change much, with the exception of Simmons replacing Sexton. This tells me Sexton may be a solid cash game target tonight.
We will then sort by FP/Min. The FP/Min column is very useful in telling us who produces when they are on the court. Doing this shows us our Top 5 really doesn’t change at all. Irving and Young stay extremely high on the list. Let’s take note of them as they are checking a lot of boxes. Brogdon also sneaks into this list but hasn’t been on any other ones we’ve looked at.
The next step is to sort by USG%. If we’re looking for what studs to build around, we want a guy who is heavily involved in his offense. Note that Kyrie and Trae have been high on every list we’ve looked at so far.
When we have what guys we want to target selected, we then want to look at two columns in particular: Who’s Hot? and Clock Watch. These two columns are very important for GPP plays in particular. Every player goes through a cold stretch as well as hot streaks. One thing that really stands out to me is Damian Lillard’s recent stretch. Damian is averaging an absurd 72.3 fpts/game over his last 3 games and 7.1X over that stretch. We also have Kyrie going through a hot stretch of his own, and we know he was already high on our list. Trae Young also remains in the Top 5 of this list.
Okay, okay. I know what you’re thinking, and yes, I noticed Milton. He’s been incredible when given the playing time and continues to be dirt cheap for us. I just wanted to see one more thing before mentioning him, but guess who tops our Clock Watch category?! Shake Milton makes for a very good GPP target tonight, and notice that Kyrie is still on every list we’ve looked at so far.
Finally, for guards, in particular, we look for guys in Pace Up matchups. This leads to more transition opportunities as well as steal opportunities. For cash games, we don’t necessarily worry too much about the Pace, but it is a very good metric for GPP guards. For guards, we sort by Descending under Pace (+/-). Fox sneaks back into our list, so he may be a solid GPP target.
Shooting Guards and Small Forwards
SG’s and SF’s follow the exact same process as the PG’s do.
Power Forwards
For Power Forwards, we will follow the exact same process for these guys, however, we will change one thing. For PF’s, we want a slow-paced matchup. This is due to PF’s getting more steal and block opportunities, as well as rebound opportunities from set offenses. To find these guys, we will go to Pace of Play and sort Pace (+/-) by Ascending order. Again, take note of any PF’s noticed from the other metrics we’ve already looked at.
Centers
Centers follow the exact same process as PF’s.
C Val Feature
C Val = Ceiling Value. I plan to use this feature primarily to target my studs. The first thing I will do is look at the average salaries of players on the slate. Today on FanDuel, most of our higher ceiling studs start at $7,200. Therefore, I will make a rule on the RS under FDSalary –> Number Filters –> Custom Filter… I will then select “greater than or equal to” from the drop-down box and input 7200 into the input box.
We want our lineups to pay off and exceed as much salary as they possibly can. When we sort the C Val section by Descending order, we see who will pay off or exceed value if they hit their projected ceiling tonight. Tonight we see that Kristaps, Fox, and Russell would well exceed value if they have that Ceiling game we would expect 15 – 20% of the time. They all need to be on our GPP radar.
F Val Feature
F Val = Floor Value. I plan to use this feature to target my value guys. We want our value guys to at least hit floor value. The first thing I will do is sort Value by Descending order (make sure you’ve cleared the filter from the salary from our previous step!). This will show us who preliminarily should be good value plays for the night. Be sure to watch the news at #nba-breaking-news and #nba-coaches-notes to be sure you stay up to date with news and potential value opening up!
I will then take note of how our value salary is shaping up to be. It appears that most of our value plays on tonight’s slate should be under $5,200. I will then make the rule of salary “less than or equal to” 5200 just as I did with the ceiling guys. Once I have this setup, I will sort by F Val Descending. This tells me if any of the chalky value plays dud, this is how much we should return value-wise off of them. *NOTE* sorting by $5,200 is not a concrete step. You can sort by whatever value you would like.
Tier List
You will want to make a Tier List of the players you’ve found based on your research. Treat this list as an “in case they’re scratched” list. I would always recommend making the highest priced guy the first on your list, therefore if he is scratched then you have nothing to worry about salary-wise with your edits in case he is scratched just before lock. Here is an example of a Top 5 Tier List I did the other night for my PG’s. This is NOT for tonight’s slate, just an example one from a few nights ago.
Minutes
For cash games, I do make a rule on the RS to include only players who will play over 24 minutes. This is something that needs to be monitored, as the closer we get to lock the RS may not be updated and may require a manual adjustment to a player’s minutes. To add this setting, simply select the down arrow under EDIT Mins under the TODAYS – Projections tab, hover over Number Filters, select Custom Filter.
We will then select “Is greater than or equal to” from the drop-down box and 24 in the input box.
Domination Station Fpts/$ and Ownership %
Once we have our list of guys to target, we want to check out who is popping on the DS. The first section we want to pull up is the Fpts/$. Players hitting value is crucial to taking down any cash contest or tourney and we want to be sure we’re getting the best bang for our buck. We do this by sorting by Fpts/$.
We also want to check out projected ownerships. This is very useful when trying to decide what value to play, or deciding what studs to fade in tournaments. This can also help bring a player to your attention you may not have noticed in the Research Station! The industry is usually very spot on about what players are in good spots, so this ownership tab is very important to watch.
Top Plays for Today!!
These are my personal Top 5 Plays at each position based on the RS numbers. These will likely change when news comes out closer to lock, so make sure you’re in the #nba-breaking-news and #nba-coaches-notes channels and turn notifications on! (Salaries sorted by FD/DK)
PG
- Kyrie Irving $8,900/$9,100
- Trae Young $9,900/$10,300
- Damian Lillard $10,200/$10,200
- De’Aaron Fox $7,900/$8,000
- Collin Sexton $6,100/$6,700
SG
- D’Angelo Russell $7,600/$8,500
- Bradley Beal $9,600/$9,900
- DeMar DeRozan $8,600/$8,700
- Devonte’ Graham $6,600/$7,600
- Donovan Mitchell $7,500/$7,000
SF
- LeBron James $11,000/$10,600
- Tim Hardaway $4,900/$5,900
- Bojan Bogdanovich $5,600/$6,100
- Jaylen Brown $6,400/$7,000
- TJ Warren $5,900/$6,100
PF
- LaMarcus Aldridge $7,400/$7,200
- John Collins $7,600/$8,000
- Anthony Davis $10,300/$9,300
- Draymond Green $5,800/$5,700
- Domantas Sabonis $8,400/$9,500
C
- Rudy Gobert $8,700/$8,400
- Joel Embiid $9,200/$9,600
- Hassan Whiteside $8,500/$8,100
- Nikola Vucevic $8,100/$8,600
- Thomas Bryant $5,000/$5,600
Value
- Kevin Porter $4,000/$4,200
- Alec Burks $4,700/$5,300
- Dorian-Finney Smith $4,500/$4,500
- Shake Milton $4,300/$5,200
- Tristan Thompson $4,900/$5,000
Thank you for reading and as mentioned before, be sure to follow my Twitter @AUFan30 or catch me in Slack with any questions you may have! Be sure to be watching the breaking news channel as always to make sure you don’t miss any exciting value plays and be sure your players are good to go! If you know of anyone interested in signing up with the DFSArmy and winning some money, then be sure to tell them to use my referral link DFS Army VIP and use code “AU30” for 20% off their VIP/BTB monthly membership!