Welcome to the Core 4! My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the article throughout the day as news breaks. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Purpose of the Core 4: These four players are guys that I want to lock into my cash game lineups and if doing multi-entry, using the Domination Station lock them in or set high exposure percentages to them. These are players that I see as underpriced, in great matchups, in play because of injuries, increased usage, etc. I also need to mention that these plays are normally geared toward Draftkings pricing and scoring, I’m not a huge fan of NBA for Fanduel, so if you see my list has three small forwards or two centers, etc. it’s because of the multi-position eligibility on Draftkings. With that said, let’s jump right into it!
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Process:
I’ve had a lot of people ask me how I get to my core guys or what do I use to get to these guys to set a foundation for my lineups, so I’m introducing a new section to this article that I’m hoping can lead this to be a little more process-based and help all of you either find a core that you like or simply see how I got to these guys so you know I’m not just pulling them out of my ass! With that said, let’s get this puppy started!
Recognizing Value:
When it comes to NBA DFS value is truly king and being able to pinpoint underpriced guys will go along way in your success in this sport. With that said, the first thing I do is head right to the Research Station (or Domination Station if you’re closer to lock) and go ahead and sort by “Value” or “PP/$”. This will then sort the player pool from the highest projected value to lowest. Many of you will see that I post my Core 4 results on Twitter and it will say something along the lines of Joel Embiid – 6.2x, that “x” number is the particular value that the player was able to reach at their price tag. That’s why questions in slack like “James Harden or Donte DiVincenzo” are incredibly difficult to answer because Harden is the obvious better play from a raw points perspective, but DiVincenzo may have a higher value. You can also scroll to the right in the Research Station and find the two columns that will tell you how the player has performed relative to a 6x (cash) or 7x (GPP) marker this season, as seen below.
And1 Rating:
Once we have determined the top value options on the slate we can begin to dig a little deeper into what makes them a good play. The And1 rating is an all-encompassing metric that will lead you to the best plays on each slate each day. As you’re looking through your “sorted” Research Station or Domination Station, you will want to look for a green shade in the And1 column, green is good, red is bad!
Opportunity:
In the NBA, opportunity is everything which is very different from other sports. In baseball, a guy could get a spot start and get five at-bats and do absolutely nothing with them. That is typically not the case in NBA, if a guy is injured or out for some reason, usually a guy at a cheaper price tag will jump right into a decent role and be able to produce from a fantasy perspective no matter the actual NBA talent of the player. This is where I keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for injuries or updates on potential value guys that we could look at starting.
Matchup/Pace:
Lastly, you don’t want a guy in a bad matchup, that much seems pretty obvious. That said, there are scenarios where I’m able to live with a poor DvP%. I’m a big believer in pace being a better representation of DFS production that simply defense vs. position especially in today’s NBA where some times are running up and down the court forcing the other team to play up to there speed. This is where I got to the Research Station and scroll over and find the “Vegas” and “Pace” section. Simply put, the more points scored in a game, the better for DFS production. You want to target guys with a + pace boost, also noted by having a green shade in this column.
Today’s Core 4:
Fred VanVleet (PG/SG) – $6,900
We start with the Raptors hosting the Nets in a game that has an implied total of 218.5. The big thing with the Raptors is they will be without Kyle Lowry, Norman Powell, and potentially Marc Gasol. With these guys off the court this season VanVleet has a 27.0% usage rate and 1.19 fantasy points per minute. He’s also playing a ton of minutes right now, I would expect him to be up near 40 minutes here as he is averaging 35.8 minutes per game over the past ten games. He has a projected 6.18 value, 14.9 And1 rating and a +1.6 pace up spot for the Raptors. VanVleet comes with a very solid floor as he hasn’t scored less than 27 fantasy points in any of his past ten games but isn’t short on the ceiling either, this is a spot that I’ll be all over on tonight’s slate.
Nemanja Bjelica (PF) – $5,500
The second piece of the core will be hosting the San Antonio Spurs in a game with an implied total of 223.5 with a tight spread of 3.0. Bjelica is coming off of a very nice 35.5 fantasy point outing and saw his price decrease to a very playable $5.5k. Both Marvin Bagley and Richaun Holmes have been ruled out here, along with newly acquired Jabari Parker and Alex Len, with Dewayne Dedmond being shipped out in that deal. All of this will lead to a ton of open minutes in the frontcourt for Bjelica to help absorb. He played 37 minutes last night and I would expect him to be near that number again tonight. With all of these guys off the court this season Bjelica has a 17.2% usage rate and 1.03 fantasy points per minute. Not only that but this is a +1.8 pace up spot for the Kings and big men have put up big games against the Spurs often this season, I love the price on Bjelica and is a guy that I will get a lot of tonight.
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Jamal Murray (PG) – $6,100
The Nuggets will travel to Phoenix to play the Suns in a game that has an implied total of 218 and a 3.5 point spread. It appears that the minutes limit on Murray has been lifted as he played a massive 43 minutes last time out against the Jazz. Now, I wouldn’t expect quite that many tonight, but with Malik Beasley traded, Jordan McRae likely unavailable and Will Barton out, there’s a good chance he’s around 35 minutes here. With Barton and Michael Porter off the court this season, Murray has a 28% usage rate and 1.03 fantasy points per minute. Murray has a 10.5 And1 rating and a massive +4.3 pace up spot for this team. The Suns aren’t playing a whole lot of defense as of late and Murray is at a price where I think we can make some money on him.
Terence Davis (PG/SG) – $3,800
We round out the Core 4 with a bit of a value piece. We’re going to go right back to that Raptors backcourt with Mr. Terence Davis. Davis has played at least 25 minutes in three straight games and I would expect him to get up around 30 here with Lowry and Powell out. Not only are the minutes there but the production is too, he’s scored at least 37 DraftKings points in two of those three games and has a 19.3% usage rate and 1.01 fantasy points per minute with Lowry and Powell out this season. Over one point per minute out of a sub $4k player is pretty rare for someone who is going to get a good amount of minutes. I have him ranked as the highest projected value play on the slate at 7.94x after I gave him a “love” in the Domination Station. After you get these four guys into your lineup you have a $6925 left per player to fill out the rest of your lineup which is more than doable and will actually allow you to get a stud or two, good luck tonight!
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches. If you don’t know about them, our two newest pages contain Breaking News and our exclusive Coaches’ Picks……both invaluable for late-breaking news and pivots in NBA.