The idea behind my process is simple, “more lineups are better than fewer lineups”. Lower entry fee contests generally have weaker competition and I believe that, over time, with more lineups, we can reduce our variance and actually see very consistent gains while still having opportunities for massive upside nights.
As you can see from my results from last year, “cash games” were not my cash game results were not great. Early on in 2019 I decided to go with a predominantly GPP approach to DFS as I’ve never been a great “cash game grinder” and that decision helped me have the best DFS year of my career.
I like to use 401k investing as an example. You would never put all of your retirement savings on the back of 1 stock, or 1 lineup. You would be much better served to spread out your risk and diversify your portfolio as much as possible. For example, If we’re playing $20 dollars, it’s better to play 20 lineups in the $1.00 dollar 20 max contest rather than playing one entry in a $20 single entry tourney.
Contest Selection is Key
Before we get started, I want you to download the RotoGrinders Chrome Browser Extensions for Fanduel and Draftkings. These extensions will allow you to see the Margain and Payout Percentages for every contest on both sites. Pay attention to the type of Tournaments you’re entering. Most of these tourneys have awful payout structures these days, but, some are much worse than others.
Bankroll Management and Contest Selection are even more important than picking the “right players” each day. Kevin aka “The Geek” has a great article discussing this even further so make sure you check out the Geek’s Bankroll Management and Contest Selection Article here.
Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s get into the process I use each day.
My MME Process from start to finish
I wrote a more elaborate MME Process Article <— click here, where I explain more and show screenshots of the DS. For each day, I’ll post the cliff notes version below but make sure you read over the other article as well so you understand the process.
Step 1 – Sort the RS or DS by highest-rated AND1 rating
Step 2 – By using the ADORE 😍 feature I Increase the projection for the Top5 players at each Position by 15%
Step 3 – DS Settings
— 150 lineups
— 3 unique players
— 70% global max exposure on all players
— 5% randomness
— Tournament Mode (not optimal mode)
Step 4 – Run and Review
Step 5 – Make final edits to your pool
Repeat Steps 4 and 5 until you are happy with your exposures and let it rip!
Quick slate overview 2-7-20
Solid 8 game Friday slate today and they will be plenty of chalk with all the recent Trades and current injury situations throughout the league. The Celtics have the highest team total on the slate at 120.5 vs the Hawks, followed by the Rockets 118.75 vs the Suns and the Jazz and Mavericks at 118 vs the Blazers and Wizards respectively. The Grizzlies vs Sixers, Blazers vs Jazz and Pistons vs Thunder have the 3 lowest implied totals today at 108,75, 108.5 and 101.25.
The first thing that stands out to me in this group is that the Mavericks have the 3rd highest team total at 118 vs the Wizards and Luka Doncic is out, and Kristaps Porzingis is questionable. This tells me right away there could be some really solid value in Dallas if we chose to go that route.
Where’s the chalk?
It’s early in the afternoon so Ownership Projections are just now starting to roll in. I’ll go over a few positions below, and highlight who we’re seeing as the chalkiest options at those positions, and then I’ll look to see where we can get off those players in order to make our lineups and roster construction unique to the field.
Point Guard
Looking very chalky right now and it seems as if most people are looking to pay down at point tonight. Ricky Rubio is showing 40% owned right now, followed by Kendrick Nunn at 30% and Reggie Jackson at around 25%. All of these players are cheap and the first expensive high owned player is Ben Simmons around 20%.
The one player I really like from this bunch is Kendrick Nunn who is only $4,600 on Fanduel and $4,800 on Draftkings. Despite him having a 30% ownership projection I still feel like we can get some leverage vs the field with him as I think he will pay off this price tag far more than 30% of the time (even better with Jimmy Butler out).
You know I like to get different, and Pay up when Others are Paying down, so, if we want to pay up we can target Damian Lillard in a tough matchup vs the Jazz. Dame is pretty much matchup proof and in GPP’s he’s got plenty of upside to take us to the top of the leaderboards.
Shooting Guard
James Harden will be high owned tonight, for good reason. With Russell Westbrook off the floor this year, Harden has a 45% usage rate and averages around 1.8 fantasy points per minute. He’ll be one of the highest owned players on the slate and will be tough to get away from even in our GPP lineups.
If you’re looking for some low owned options to pair with Harden, you can consider Buddy Hield at sub 5% vs the Heat (without Jimmy Butler). You could also consider CJ McCollum in that same difficult matchup I mentioned for Lillard vs the Jazz. He has plenty of upside at his price and even in a tough matchup he could smash value at low ownership for you.
Center
For me, being different at Center is an easy way on Fanduel to ensure that my lineup construction is unique. Today it looks like the optimal roster build is having people spend down at Center, with Enes Kanter coming in as the highest projected owned. Next to him is a mid-range option in Rudy Gobert and then Steven Adams vs Detroit. DeAndre Ayton stands out to me against the small ball Rockets as I’m seeing him at sub 2% owned. Surely we believe he can pay off this price tag more than 2% of the time so we can get some serious leverage here.
So how do we get different from the field today?
As I mentioned above, it looks like the optimal roster construction is leading people to pay down at Point Guard and Center today. This is going to lead them to pay up at SG, SF and Power Forward. The easiest way for us to get off this chalk roster construction is to force our lineups to be constructed differently as I’ve laid out about. At point guard, we can pay up in one spot for Damian Lillard and at Center, we can target someone like DeAndre Ayton or Hassan Whiteside. Giving small boosts to these players will cause them to be used more in our lineups and will allow our lineups overall to be unique vs the field.
Some of my favorite Pivots today
Damian Lillard vs Jazz – tough matchup and cheap PG’s in other spots = low ownership
DeAndre Ayton vs Rockets – cheap C’s in other spots = low ownership for Ayton with tons of upside vs high pace (small) Rockets team.
Pay up where others are paying down
Spend up at PG and Center to be unique today.
Wrap it up
Alex “Awesemo” Baker (the #1 DFS player in the world) had a great quote in a recent article he wrote.
Hopefully that all makes sense. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me in the VIP Chat at any time. I’ll leave you with the Top3 And1 players below at each position. Be sure to check on these closer to lock as well, as these change when news breaks later in the day.
AND 1 Top 3’s today
The AND 1 rating was developed by Ben Jammin @xBenJamminx and is apart of our NBA Research Station.The rating is an all-encompassing metric that will lead you to the best plays on each slate each day. One of my favorite things to do is use the ADORE 😍 feature in the Domination Station on all of these players so that I’m sure to get heavy exposure to them across my lineups.
James Harden leads the slate today with a 24.7 AND1 Rating in his matchups against the Suns. Check out the Rest of the Top 3 at each position below.
PG – Kemba Walker
Ben Simmons
Damian Lillard
SG – James Harden
Marcus Smart
Devin Booker
SF – Kelly Oubre
Bojan Bogdanovic
Dorian Finney-Smith
PF – Jayson Tatum
Kristaps Porzingis
John Collins
C – Deandre Ayton
Joel Embiid
Rudy Gobert