The idea behind my process is simple, “more lineups are better than fewer lineups”. Lower entry fee contests generally have weaker competition and I believe that, over time, with more lineups, we can reduce our variance and actually see very consistent gains while still having opportunities for massive upside nights.
As you can see from my results from last year, “cash games” were not my cash game results were not great. Early on in 2019 I decided to go with a predominantly GPP approach to DFS as I’ve never been a great “cash game grinder” and that decision helped me have the best DFS year of my career.
I like to use 401k investing as an example. You would never put all of your retirement savings on the back of 1 stock, or 1 lineup. You would be much better served to spread out your risk and diversify your portfolio as much as possible. For example, If we’re playing $20 dollars, it’s better to play 20 lineups in the $1.00 dollar 20 max contest rather than playing one entry in a $20 single entry tourney.
Contest Selection is Key
Before we get started, I want you to download the RotoGrinders Chrome Browser Extensions for Fanduel and Draftkings. These extensions will allow you to see the Margain and Payout Percentages for every contest on both sites. Pay attention to the type of Tournaments you’re entering. Most of these tourneys have awful payout structures these days, but, some are much worse than others.
Bankroll Management and Contest Selection are even more important than picking the “right players” each day. Kevin aka “The Geek” has a great article discussing this even further so make sure you check out the Geek’s Bankroll Management and Contest Selection Article here.
Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s get into the process I use each day.
My MME Process from start to finish
I wrote a more elaborate MME Process Article <— click here, where I explain more and show screenshots of the DS. For each day, I’ll post the cliff notes version below but make sure you read over the other article as well so you understand the process.
Step 1 – Sort the RS or DS by highest-rated AND1 rating
Step 2 – By using the ADORE 😍 feature I Increase the projection for the Top5 players at each Position by 15%
Step 3 – DS Settings
— 150 lineups
— 3 unique players
— 70% global max exposure on all players
— 5% randomness
— Tournament Mode (not optimal mode)
Step 4 – Run and Review
Step 5 – Make final edits to your pool
Quick slate overview 2-3-20
Today we’ve got a big 10 game slate to Tip off the week. The three highest game totals today are the Warriors @ Wizards (235) followed by the Spurs @ Clippers (228.5) and the T’Wolves @ Kings (226). The three lowest game totals are the Mavericks @ Pacers (214) Sixers @ Heat 212 and Magic @ Hornets (202.5). The individual teams with the highest totals are the Wizards 120.25, the Clippers 118.75 and the Grizzlies 117.22, while the teams with the lowest totals are the Mavericks 104.25, Magic 103.5 and the Hornets at just 99 implied points.
There are a few teams dealing with major injuries on this slate that could greatly change things closer to lock.
In Detroit, Derrick Rose is doubtful, so that is going to force Reggie Jackson into big minute and likely high ownership vs the Grizzlies. Priced at just 4.5k on FD and 4.7k on DK he’s going to be the top value option across the industry, in a real nice matchup vs the Grizzlies.
Boston will be without Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart tonight vs the Hawks. This could lead to Brad Wanamaker chalk night, which is never something I enjoy, but, we can expect solid boosts for Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward here as well. On a big 10 game slate, we may not NEED to go to Brad Wanamaker chalk (thank god).
The Hawks are dealing with a ton of injuries as well, with Bembry, Reddish and Len all out, while Young, Fernando, and Hunter are all listed as Questionable. The biggest news here is whether or not Trae Young plays if he’s out we get a ton of usage to spread out to the remaining Hawks. In that scenario, Jeff Teague would pop as an elite value option on this slate. Kevin Huerter will play big minutes tonight regardless if Young is in or out.
In Dallas, we’ll see Luka Doncic miss his 3rd straight game, so we know we’ll get a boost for Kristaps Porzingis and we’ll get some value from Jalen Brunson and to a lesser extent Delon Wright.
Lastly, in Brooklyn, Kyrie Irving will be out for a while so we can go back to targeting Spencer Dinwiddie in our lineups. With Irving off the floor, Dinwiddie runs the show and holds a 33% usage rate for the Nets. He averages around 1.25 fantasy points per minute and has been very consistent in the past with Irving off the floor.
How am I attacking Today’s Slate?
In Cash games, this slate is pretty straight forward really, Reggie Jackson, Spencer Dinwiddie, and one (maybe both) of Gordon Hayward or Jaylen Brown is likely going to be your core that you’re building around. In tournaments, on a 10 game slate, I’m going try my best to get away from those guys if I can because their ownership looks to be pushing the 40-50% mark as I’m looking at it now.
So how do we get different from the field today?
Reggie Jackson is a tough one today, because, he’s simply too cheap for the role he’s going to play tonight. If we look at the Fanduel NBA Research Station, under the Consistency Section we can see that he’s paid off today’s price at 7x value 50% of the time on Fanduel. On Draftkings we can see that Jackson has only reached 7x value 29% of the time.
With a 7x value 50% of the time on Fanduel he’s really tough to fade and he may just be chalk that we’ve got to eat tonight. On Draftkings, at 7x 29% of the time, we can fade more freely I believe.
If you absolutely MUST get off the chalk because you just can’t stomach playing someone who is going to be 50% owned then there are a few solid pivots you can make if you’re willing to spend up a little. Elfrid Payton vs the Cavs is as good a matchup as there is for Point Guards. The Cavs allow 10% more fantasy points to point guards than the league average this year, and Elf Payton has been surprisingly consistent the past few weeks. He’s scored over 30 fantasy points in 7 straight games with his best game coming last game vs the Grizzlies where he scored 43 fantasy points. He’s priced at 6.4k on FD and 6.5k on DK, he’s got 50 point upside against the Cavs and he may not even reach 3% ownership tonight.
Another option we have is Jalen Brunson who will be starting at point guard again for the Mavericks with Luka Doncic out. The matchup vs the Pacers is not great but Brunson is coming off a big game where he played 28 minutes and scored 42.80 fantasy points vs the Hawks. The Mavs will also be without Seth Curry tonight so Brunson should get all the point guard minutes he can handle in this one. Priced at just 5.7k on FD he’s got plenty of upside at that price.
Some of my favorite Pivots today
My general strategy when attacking GPP’s is to try and construct my lineups differently than the field. Sounds easy right? The hard part about playing this way is that I’m taking a “sub-optimal” approach to my builds. Meaning, I have to force the optimizer to something other than creating the “optimal” build(s) for the night. In a sport like NBA, this doesn’t always “feel good” but I believe it’s a must in these super top-heavy large field tournaments these days.
Below are a few individual targets that I like tonight, but, this slate is full of great GPP plays so make sure you’re checking out the Coach Notes and make sure you’re in the Slack Chat leading up to lock tonight!
Elf Payton, Jalen Brunson, and Shake Milton
I mentioned Payton and Brunson above
With Josh Richardson out Shake Milton has stepped up nicely for the 76ers. In his last 3 games, he has played 29, 35 and 26 minutes while scoring 25, 44 and 16 fantasy points. He’s got a very wide range of outcomes, but, that’s exactly what we like in GPP’s. He’s a little cheaper than Reggie Jackson and he will be virtually unowned tonight.
Miles Bridges $5,800 / $5,300
If you’re looking to get off the Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward chalk at Small Forward, you can look at Miles Bridges from the Hornets. The game environment is not great as the Hornets have the lowest implied team total on the slate. However, Bridges has been playing well over his last 2 games playing 34 and 36 minutes while scoring 39 and 40 fantasy points. He’s less expensive than both Brown and Hayward and should be way lower owned than them both today.
Pay up where others are paying down
We know Reggie Jackson is going to be chalk tonight, so we know most people will be paying down at Point Guard. The simplest way to differentiate your lineup would be to pay up at point guard with players like Trae Young or Ben Simmons. If we do this we can assure ourselves a unique roster construction from the field.
This same strategy can be used at Shooting Guard today with all the value we have at the position. Dinwiddie will be the chalkiest player, but the upside and uniqueness we can get from rostering Devin Booker or Bradley Beal could pay off huge in GPPs. Booker has scored 50+ in 2 of his last 5 games and he’s scored 48 or more in 4 of those 5 games and he has an elite matchup vs Brooklyn. While Beal has been on fire, scoring 50+ in 5 of his last 6 games, with his last 3 all being 58 or more. He has a dreamy matchup vs the Warriors tonight so another 60 burger is not out of the realm of possibility.
Wrap it up
Alex “Awesemo” Baker (the #1 DFS player in the world) had a great quote in a recent article he wrote.
Hopefully that all makes sense. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me in the VIP Chat at any time. I’ll leave you with the Top3 And1 players below at each position. Be sure to check on these closer to lock as well, as these change when news breaks later in the day.
AND 1 Top 3’s today
The AND 1 rating was developed by Ben Jammin @xBenJamminx and is apart of our NBA Research Station.The rating is an all-encompassing metric that will lead you to the best plays on each slate each day. One of my favorite things to do is use the ADORE 😍 feature in the Domination Station on all of these players so that I’m sure to get heavy exposure to them across my lineups.
Kawhi Leonard leads the slate today with a 21.4 AND1 Rating in his matchups against the Spurs. Check out the Rest of the Top 3 at each position below.
PG – De’Aaron Fox
Reggie Jackson
Ricky Rubio
SG – D’Angelo Russell
Bradley Beal
Spencer Dinwiddie
SF – Jaylen Brown
Gordon Hayward
Kelly Oubre
PF – Kawhi Leonard
Jayson Tatum
Draymond Green
C – Andre Drummond
Deandre Ayton
Karl-Anthony Towns