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BigMarley3’s UFC Rio Rancho DraftKings Breakdown

BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown

 

Event – UFC on ESPN+ 25                                           Location – Rio Rancho, New Mexico

 

This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in New Mexico. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $150,000 being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and mainly chase that $30k. I will probably throw a handful of lineups, 10-20, in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups.

A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.

 

With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:

 

Raulian Paiva $8,900 vs Mark De La Rosa $7,400

Raulian Paiva

Age: 24

Height: 5’8

Weight: 125

Reach: 69.5”

Gym: Ronildo Nobre

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 0-2

Fight Matrix: 64

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: -240

 

Raulian Paiva is in desperate need of a victory. Paiva has had a rough 0-2 start to his UFC career. He lost a close split decision he could have won in his UFC debut; and his second fight was stopped due to a cut in the very first round. Paiva is likely getting one final opportunity to put up or shut up against De La Rosa. Raulian Paiva is a forward pressure striker & a brawler. Paiva has heavy hands & when he connects opponents definitely feel it. Paiva has a heavy jab & nice low kicks. Paiva’s straight & overhand right are powerful & accurate. He will throw nice, tight hooks in combination inside. Paiva will attack the body with powerful hooks. He is good at throwing a straight shot followed by a tight left or right hook that catch opponents flush. Paiva will throw solid front & round kicks to the body. He will throw occasional high kicks & spinning kicks, but rarely. Paiva’s cardio, power & durability are his calling cards on the feet. He drowns opponents with forward pressure, gets them tired & breaks their will. In exchanges, Paiva is hittable & will float his chin, but he is very durable. He is willing to take a shot to give his own. Paiva can struggle to cut the cage off at times & was pot shotted from the outside in his loss to Kara-France. Paiva definitely packs power for flyweight but has just three KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished by strikes, besides getting finished via doctors’ stoppage in his last match.

Raulian Paiva is a bigger flyweight & very physically strong. Paiva will look to occasionally close the distance & shoot single & double legs against the cage. He is strong in the clinch and does a good job of using punches to get into the clinch safely. He will look for standing guillotines & to get to the back and get standing rear naked chokes. He is an awesome scrambler, and while not a good wrestler, he’s great at creating 50-50 positions & ending up on top.  In his last match, he showed excellent balance & scrambling ability against Rogerio Bontorin for the short period it lasted. He is excellent at defending takedowns with switches. Off his back, he has excellent sweeps, and will attack with triangles & armbars. His sweeping game is dynamic, and he turns bad positions into good ones more often than not. Paiva hasn’t gotten too many submissions over his career but is definitely dangerous on the mat. Paiva has three career submissions. He has been submitted one time. Paiva has excellent cardio & is always looking to inflict damage. Paiva’s style usually is enough to win him the output battle & thus win the decision. Paiva is 12-1 in decisions with the one loss being a split decision I feel he won.

 

Mark De La Rosa

Age: 25

Height: 5’6

Weight: 125

Reach: 65”

Gym: Genesis BJJ

From: Texas

UFC Record: 2-3

Fight Matrix: 50

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: +200

 

Mark De La Rosa has been up & down so far in his UFC tenure. De La Rosa has a record of 2-3 but has lost consecutive fights. He is also in desperate need of a victory. De La Rosa has a similar style to Paiva on the feet. He is a forward pressure striker with good boxing skills. De la Rosa will throw heavy lead & counter left hooks. He will throw a left hook, right uppercut combination. He has nice, hard hooks in combination in close range. He has fast hands & will unload with hooks & uppercuts to close the distance. He is good at constantly walking fighters down & being able to slip and counter with punches as he does. He has nice low calf kicks and hard body kicks. He will throw the occasional head kick. He is flat footed & doesn’t move his head. He can get hit with some nice shots coming in, but he has a good chin. He isn’t the greatest athlete & I feel will struggle vs faster, more explosive strikers on the feet. His constant forward pressure & leg kicks do wear opponents out. He does have some pop in his hands, but not KO power. He is someone who will wear on opponents over the course of 3 rounds. He has one TKO & has never been finished by strikes.

Mark De La Rosa is very physical, especially for 125 lbs.  He tries to use his boxing to push fighters towards the cage & then get inside where he can get the takedown. He will try to grab double underhooks or the plum clinch. He has good clinch takedowns off the cage. De La Rosa is very good at punching his way into takedowns & blending. He has a nice high crotch single, which he uses to transition to the back. He has good reactive double legs. On top, he is heavy & has nice elbows. He has good guard passes & a great back take. He has great control on the back & is good at locking the body triangle in and getting the RNC. He can be taken down, but he has good defense and scrambling ability as well as having a solid guard. He has very fast hips and will throw up triangles and armbars. De La Rosa has six submission victories in his career. He has been submitted one time in vs Tim Elliott. De la Rosa has good cardio and will continue to come forward & go for the win for three rounds.

 

I think Paiva is the better fighter everywhere here and aside from getting submitted I don’t see him losing this fight. De La Rosa is solid on the ground, but he isn’t a good wrestler and I think Paiva will dictate where this fight takes place and I will take Paiva to win a pretty clear decision here. De La Rosa’s wife fights later on this card, so this fight could play into her mindset going into her fight, fyi.

I like Paiva in this fight, but I don’t like his DK salary. He is still my preferred play because I think he is the better fighter everywhere, but I could see him scoring ~75 in a win here and that won’t cut it at his price. I won’t full fade him because I do want some of the first fight of the night, and De La Rosa will probably be a fade for me. Unless he gets a sub, I don’t see him winning or scoring well.

Winner –  Raulian Paiva via Unanimous Decision

 

Macy Chiasson $9,400 vs Shanna Young $6,800

Macy Chiasson

Age: 28

Height: 5’9

Weight: 135

Reach: 72”

Gym: Fortis MMA

From: Louisiana

UFC Record: 3-1

Fight Matrix: 12

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -750

 

Macy Chiasson is getting back on the horse following a disappointing loss to Lina Lansberg. Chiasson was a massive favorite in that contest and looked on her way to a top 15 ranking in a hurry, but all that was halted. She will need to work her way back up here, and it starts by defeating Shanna Young. She has a great frame & is very tall & long for the division. Chiasson has good hand speed. She throws nice one-twos and has pop on her shots. She will throw a double jab, overhand right. She has hard body kicks & nice head kicks. She has a nice front kick to the body as well and was landing her body kick at will in her last match. She will throw long, lead left hooks. She will throw spinning heel kicks. She is still green, but athletic & powerful with a lot of potential. She dropped Pannie Kianzad with a lead elbow & left, right hook combination. She landed a left hook, right hook, left hook combination that dropped Gina Mazany. She is a bit of a plodder & does take shots coming forward. She doesn’t move her head & is rather easy to hit with shots. She is definitely more comfortable fighting in the clinch & on the ground. With her making the drop down to 135 lbs it will be interesting to see if she still has the speed to get inside and take shots over time. She has good power & three KO/TKO’s in her pro career. She has never been finished by strikes as a pro but was finished once badly as an amateur.

Chiasson is a good offensive grappler, and very dangerous in the clinch. She has nasty knees to the body & head from the Thai plum. She has big power in those shots & finished Leah Letson on the show with knees to the body. She has nice elbows to the head. Her height & reach give her very good control in that position and she’s able to dominate her opponents. She will duck under & look for double legs. On top, she likes to take the back & get rear naked chokes. She is able to take the back off sprawls when she defends takedown attempts. When she takes the back, she is very long, has great control and can slip the arm under the chin quickly. She finished Pannie Kianzad with a rear naked choke in her match to win TUF. Chiasson’s takedown defense was exposed a bit in her last two matches. She was taken down in the clinch by both Sara Moras & Lina Lansberg. Lansberg was able to get several takedowns, and controlled Chiasson on top easily. Macy wasn’t able to get-up off bottom & lost due to being controlled. In previous fights she would get butterfly hooks & did a good job of transitioning into double legs as she got up. Her get-ups & takedown defense have to improve if she wants to get the belt. Chiasson has finished 4 consecutive wins. She has 2 submissions & never been finished by submission.

 

Shanna Young

Age: 28

Height: 5’7

Weight: 135

Reach: 68”

Gym: Knoxville Martial Arts

From: Virginia

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 54

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +525

 

Shanna Young is stepping in here on short notice for this UFC opportunity. Young has already had a shot on the contender series that was unsuccessful, so this was probably the most likely way she would have gotten the call. Young is going to be undersized here. She made the drop to 125 lbs for her last fight. For Macy Chiasson to make 125 you would have to cut off her leg. Young’s record is nothing to write home about. She has defeated Pam Sorensen via split decision, but none of her other victories have been impressive. She is just 2-2 in her last four fights as well. Young’s striking is not that good. She doesn’t have good hands. She will throw out her jab, one-two, but she has terrible range management. She gets tagged with big counter punches & when she is forced to fight moving backwards she has nothing really. Young in her one loss was walked down & beat in boxing range. Young throws a ton of front leg sidekicks to the body & head. They aren’t bad, but she will throw them way too close to her opponents & get them jammed & gets counters with big shots. She will throw big, wild jab, overhand rights & left hooks. When she is allowed to go forward or her opponents are tired, she will go forward & throw sloppy punches with good power. She did drop her opponent with a jab in her last match. I am not impressed with her striking, but she is tough & willing to take punishment. She has just one career TKO.

Shanna Young is a former wrestler, but I have not really been impressed with her grappling in MMA. She does have good pressure & control against the cage. She will wear on opponents with cage control & try to get doubles. Her takedowns & top control haven’t been very effective. She usually will not be able to hold position long even if she gets the takedown. She is a good scrambler & has good takedown defense, but not great. In her matches with Sarah Alpar & Miranda Maverick she submitted to a rear naked choke. In her last match, she came close to being submitted by a RNC again & ate some big punches while her opponent had her back. Young was able to sprawl & land some big shots on her opponent in her last match. She was also able to take mount late in the fight & almost get the TKO finish. She does look to have a killer instinct & goes for the finish when she has opponents hurt. Young has 2 submissions. She is tough with good cardio and will bring it.

 

This was originally going to be Chiasson vs Nicco Montano, but Montano pulled out late Monday and Young accepted the fight on four days’ notice. Macy didn’t look good at all in her last fight, but she definitely has potential and I think she is the better fighter everywhere here. There is no line on this fight yet, but I think Macy will be a big favorite and I think she could finish on the feet or the ground here.

Macy or pass. She is the biggest favorite and has the highest salary, and she is -230 ITD. I think she can finish this fight anywhere and she is in play in all formats if you can afford her. I don’t see me getting a ton of her at this price though because I don’t really like any underdogs, so it will be more for lineups where I am taking shots on those cheap KO potential underdogs where I can fit her in. Young is a full fade for me and if I was making 150 lineups I would still probably fade her.

Winner – Macy Chiasson via 2nd round Submission

 

Merab Dvalishvili $8,400 vs Casey Kenney $7,800

Merab Dvalishvili

Age: 29

Height: 5’6

Weight: 135

Reach: 68”

Gym: Serra Jiu-Jitsu

From: Georgia

UFC Record: 2-2

Fight Matrix: 34

Last Fought: 9 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: -165

 

Merab Dvalishvili has bounced back from his rough UFC start to win back to back fights in dominating fashion. Merab is a dominating wrestler who overwhelms opponents with pace & pressure. He has recently competed in the world sambo championships all the way up at 155 lbs. He was undersized, but he still managed to get the silver medal. Merab Dvalishvili is a beast on the feet. He is a little wild, but he throws with big power & is very fast. He has a good jab & a nice one-two. He will throw a jab, uppercut & his uppercut is hard to see coming due to his constant wrestling threat. He dropped Ricky Simon with an uppercut. He has a nice left hook in close range. He will throw hard hooks in combination in close range. He has nice kicks, he throws good leg kicks, nice front kicks to the body and will go up top as well. He will throw a lot of spinning attacks. He has a spinning backfist KO in his career and will throw spinning heel kicks as well. He has good superman punches. He is very fast in and out and I think his opponents are surprised at his speed and pace he can keep. He isn’t the most technical fighter on the feet, and he is available to be hit, but he usually is the one controlling the center of the cage and throwing first. He can throw un setup leg kicks at times & return his hands slow in the pocket. He needs to be careful not to get hit clean with a kick or straight shot from Casey. When he is going forwards, he is usually winning. When he gets a fighter backing up, he will put heavy pressure on his opponents & swarm. Merab has two knockouts & has never been finished.

Merab is a great wrestler and is very strong in the clinch. He has great doubles and single legs, and he drives through and gets takedowns with force. He has a strong body lock and will get a lock around the waist, circle to the back and suplex fighters or just drag them to the mat. He catches kicks and gets takedowns as well, and he can continue to take opponents down over and over without slowing down. He is excellent at staying connected when opponents stand up and returning them to the mat. He will try to jump on the back from that position as well and can sometimes get a little too overzealous & get shucked off. He has gotten 10+ takedowns in 3 of his 4 UFC fights. He has been able to take down former college wrestlers with ease. Obviously, he has proven that he has the cardio to get continuous takedowns even if he can’t cement position. In his matches against Terrion Ware & Brad Katona, he was able to keep top position & beat them up with big elbows from full & half guard. Merab has calmed down a bit in the cage. Instead of going for low risk back takes and giving up top position, he is staying heavy & just winning the fight. He in my opinion knocked himself out from a takedown against Ricky Simon and was rolled over into a guillotine. It was a very weird and controversial finish as he never tapped, but they gave Simon the technical submission victory. His takedown defense is very good & he denies them easily. When he was taken down by Simon, he was able to stand back up quickly. Merab has one submission victory & has only been submitted once. He is more of a grinder & wins via decision.

 

Casey Kenney

Age: 28

Height: 5’7

Weight: 135

Reach: 68”

Gym: Rise Combat Sports

From: Arizona

UFC Record: 2-0

Fight Matrix: 32

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W6

Betting Odds: +145

 

Casey Kenney has had an impressive start to his UFC career. The former LFA double champ has begun his UFC career 2-0 with 2 decision victories. Kenney is undersized at 135, but he hasn’t let that stop him even winning a fight at a catch weight of 140 in his last match. His striking isn’t great, but it’s not bad. He is a southpaw. Casey Kenney has a good jab, a nice one-two & decent hand speed. When he backs opponents to the cage, he likes to use right hook, left hook combinations. He will finish combos with nice head kicks. Kenney has nice round kicks to the body & head. Kenney will also attack the body with punches, and he has a good counter left hook. He will look to grab the Muay Thai plum & throw knees up the middle. He has a recent knee knockout that way. I would say he is the more fluid striker in this matchup, but both guys are predominately grapplers. Kenney likes to walk opponents into straights & kicks and be pretty. In this fight with the constant forward pressure of Merab, he may struggle to get going on the feet. Kenney didn’t enjoy getting pushed backwards against Manny Bermudez and ate some big shots that had him hurt in round three. Kenney is heavy on his lead leg & doesn’t move his head in exchanges. He is hittable and doesn’t have great defense. Kenney isn’t a big knockout threat with just two in his career. He has never been finished.

Casey Kenney showed once again that he is a very strong grappler vs Manny Bermudez. Kenney was also able to take Borg down multiple times & scramble with him. Kenney is very strong in the clinch with judo throws & trips. He is a multi-time American judo medalist. He is good at opening up the takedown threat with elbows & knees in the clinch. He also can get big, explosive slam takedowns with singles & doubles. One of his knockouts was a slam knockout. Kenney has nice ground & pound and has good power. He likes to take the back & was able to get the back of Ray Borg & Bermudez multiple times. Borg was able to scramble out of those positions time & time again, but Borg is one of the best scramblers in the sport. Kenney has been taken down 10 times in just two UFC fights. He was slammed multiple times against Borg with doubles. He also had his back taken but is very good at shaking opponents off. Against Manny Bermudez you could tell the size was a factor, and Manny was able to get some easy clinch takedowns. Kenney is never static when taken down and very hard to control. He wins fights by winning scrambles & being the better grappler in most fights. Kenney does have 4 submissions, but none in his last 9 fights. Kenney has slowed down in round three of both of his UFC fights. He is fighting out of his weight class & eventually that will catch up to him.

 

I am looking forward to this one. Both guys have impressed me in their UFC fights and we should see some good grappling here. Merab sets a crazy pace in his fights and I don’t see that changing here. I think he is the better wrestler and I expect him to get Kenney down multiple times. I think Kenney is the better striker of the two though and he is a good wrestler/grappler himself and could have success there as well. I think Merab’s pace and wrestling will be the difference here though. He lands 6.75 takedowns per 15 minutes and Kenney has been taken down 10 times in his 2 UFC fights.

This is a fight I will look to get in more than half my lineups. Both guys average more than 10x their salaries here and I expect a good amount of grappling in this fight where we could see a lot of takedowns, reversals, and advances. Merab is my preferred play because of his high pace, high takedown volume, and Kenney’s below average takedown defense. I think Merab could score over 100 in a decision win here and I like him in all formats. I do think this is a tough fight for him though and Kenney is going to win more striking exchanges and is more likely to get a KO. I think Kenney could have success with takedowns himself as well and if he is able to get the win I think he gets more than 10x his salary. I will for sure look to be overweight on Merab here, but I will likely try to be overweight to Kenney as well and this is one of my favorite fights on the card from a watching and DK perspective.

Winner – Merab Dvalishvili via Unanimous Decision

 

Devin Clark $9,300 vs Dequan Townsend $6,900

Devin Clark

Age: 31

Height: 6’0

Weight: 185

Reach: 75”

Gym: Jackson-Wink MMA

From: South Dakota

UFC Record: 4-4

Fight Matrix: 57

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -345

 

Devin Clark will be looking to bounce back from a tough loss his last time out. He was looking good but ultimately submitted by Ryan Spann, in a similar tale to a lot of his fights. Clark is very talented but has lulls & lapses in judgment that cost him fights. He is getting a layup here in Dequan Townsend & if he screws this one up, I feel he could be cut. He is light on his feet & explosive. In round one, Clark is dangerous having dropped his last two opponents. He has solid inside, outside leg kicks. He dropped Darko Stosic with a jab. He will throw good one-twos and has a nice straight & overhand right lead. He will close the distance with hooks or straight punch combinations. He has a very nice leaping left hook he dropped Rakic with. He will throw front & hook kicks to the body & head. He will throw superman punches and likes to throw backfists into an explosive combination to close the distance. When fighters pressure him, he will use spinning backfists to counter; That can get him knockdowns like it did vs Stosic or get him in trouble & knocked out like vs Rakic. He holds his hands low, and sometimes can close the distance hands down with his chin in the air. Clark will also turn his back at times when he gets hit which you never like to see. Clark has gotten much more composed. He sticks & moves, uses more lateral movement, & his striking is all basically to setup his entries to get the fight to the ground. In Clark’s last match he was able to dominate round 3 by potshotting Stosic & staying on the outside. Clark does have big power & is explosive. He has 3 KO/TKO’s and has been finished by strikes twice.

Devin Clark is a junior college National Wrestling Champion, and I see him trying to get this fight to the mat. Clark has good control in the clinch. He will hold opponents against the cage, work knees & elbows, and works well off the breaks. He will throw combinations if an opponent can disengage & then re-clinch. He was able to gas out Stosic by doing this. Clark does a good job feinting his way inside & has a strong double leg. Clark will also close the distance with a straight or an uppercut directly into a takedown attempt. When he gets his hands connected, he takes his opponents down easily & can take them for a ride. He has strong body lock takedown. Clark’s top control isn’t elite, but it’s not bad. He will trap a wrist from the guard & use it to try to turk the legs & move directly into mount or take the back. He does a good job of getting to the wrestling ride position & throwing down shots. He has the cardio to wrestle for 3 consecutive rounds and will reshoot & re-dump opponents continuously. In his last match, he did have success with his wrestling, but ultimately succumbed to a guillotine choke. Devin Clark isn’t a submission threat with just one in his career. He has been submitted twice.

 

Dequan Townsend

Age: 33

Height: 6’3

Weight: 205

Reach: 79”

Gym: Murciélago MMA

From: Michigan

UFC Record: 0-2

Fight Matrix: 164

Last Fought: 3 Weeks

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: +285

 

Dequan Townsend is 0-2 in the UFC so far and taking this fight on about 3 weeks’ notice. Townsend just fought Bevon Lewis January 25th, so he should be in shape. He is moving up to 205 for this one and going to be undersized. Dequan Townsend is a big, athletic guy with knockout power. He throws heavy low kicks which I feel he needs to use in this match. Townsend has a long reach & will throw decent jabs & straight punches. Townsend has power, and when he lands he will come forward with straight & hook punch combinations. He closes distance pretty quickly, but also recklessly. Townsend will wing overhands that are dangerous. Townsend likes to pull counter & is comfortable using head movement to evade punches. Townsend has a dangerous high kick he has knocked opponents out with. He has nice flying knees & jumping kicks & punches. Townsend is very durable & hard to finish. His defense is not very good. He will back up in straight lines and doesn’t control the center well at all. His footwork moving backwards can be very awkward. Townsend got knocked out with a straight punch combination leaning back while being too close to the cage. Townsend still has only been KO’d one time in his career which was his last match. Townsend is still dangerous with 12 career KO/TKO’s.

Dequan Townsend’s grappling is very low level. His takedown defense is very questionable & he has little to no Jiu-Jitsu. He backs himself to the cage where he’s easy to get in on. He also can close distance very reckless & give up easy takedowns. He did show improved defense vs Lewis but was just held against the cage & couldn’t get off. Townsend does have a solid guillotine he uses to counter takedowns. When fighters get Townsend on his back, his guard is easy to pass. Fighters can move to side control & mount easily. Townsend will stay relaxed & isn’t the easiest fighter to submit. Townsend has been submitted just one time via heel hook. Townsend relies on explosion to just time a moment to sweep or stand up. Townsend has swept & taken the back of low level opponents on the regional scene but doesn’t have good control. Townsend has just three career submissions.

 

Townsend is coming off a loss just a couple weeks ago and this is another bad matchup for him. Aside from a KO, I don’t see how Townsend wins this one. Clark has more power, throws more volume, and is a way better wrestler. I think Clark uses his wrestling to grind out a 30-27 (with some possible 10-8’s) decision.

Clark is my preferred DK play here because of his wresting, but his price tag makes me not want to target a lot of this fight. I think he is in play and could even pay that salary off in a decision win, but I don’t think he is a must and most of his points would come from takedowns. Townsend is a fine GPP punt for a low owned, knockout chance, but overall, this fight won’t make many of my lineups and I wouldn’t use either side in cash games.

Winner – Devin Clark via Unanimous Decision

 

Scott Holtzman $8,200 vs Jim Miller $8,000

Scott Holtzman

Age: 36

Height: 5’9

Weight: 155

Reach: 70”

Gym: Gym-O

From: Tennessee

UFC Record: 6-3

Fight Matrix: 47

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: -155

 

Scott Holtzman called his shot & got it. After his victory over Dong Hyun Ma, he went on the mic & asked for Jim Miller & that’s exactly who he’s got. I’m sure this is a big moment for Holtzman getting to fight a legend of the game. Holtzman has been on a good run, winning four of his last five fights, and comes into this fight the favorite. Holtzman is a fairly athletic fighter & will have speed advantage in this fight. Holtzman walks opponents down & has solid in & out movement. He will throw nice inside leg kicks & has a good straight-left hand. He will throw left hooks also. He will throw a straight-left hand, overhand right or straight-right combination. He does a good job of throwing counter check left hooks or counter straight-right hands. In the past, he could stay in the pocket too long throwing lazy, touching shots & get countered with a power punch. He does have nice uppercuts in close range and when he backs opponents towards the cage he will swarm with hook, uppercut combinations. He has good front kicks to the body & head. He will also throw nice round kicks to the head. He does a good job of feinting kicks to setup his punches. He likes to close the distance when fighters against the cage with flying knees & flying jump kicks. He has a strong chin & can recover quickly. In his last match, he was dropped by stupidly trading in the pocket, but was able to rally to finish his opponent. He has solid power with 4 KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished.

Scott Holtzman is very physical for the division & a strong grappler. He has great double leg takedowns. He has good timing on them and has a strong drive. He can pick fighters up & slam them. He will grab a single leg & drive opponents to the cage then turn it to a double leg. He has good body lock takedowns also & is strong in the clinch. On top, he has good ground & pound elbows & solid top control. He dropped Alan Patrick, took the mount & finished him with nasty ground & pound. He has above average takedown defense and is hard to hold down. When fighters take him down, he does a great job of popping back up. He can be taken down against the cage with double legs. He was controlled in the clinch & taken down with some body locks against the fence vs Nik Lentz. He lost the fight largely because he couldn’t get off the cage, but Lentz is an excellent grinder. He isn’t much of a submission threat with only 2 in his career. He did show great cardio in his last match being the fresher fighter late & finishing the fight. Holtzman is I think the more durable as well & if he wants to make the fight a war & trade he probably will win that. Holtzman has two career submissions and has never been submitted. He is facing a submission specialist who is going to try to test that.

 

Jim Miller

Age: 36

Height: 5’8

Weight: 155

Reach: 71”

Gym: Miller Brothers MMA

From: New Jersey

UFC Record: 20-12

Fight Matrix: 27

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: +135

 

Jim Miller continues to turn back the clock. In 2019 Miller was unbeaten at 2-0 with 2 first round finishes. He has looked much better recently and is back to his finishing ways. In fact, in his last five fights none of them have gone past round one. Jim Miller is getting a slight step up in competition here, but it is still a fighter outside of the top fifteen. Jim Miller has had 33 total UFC fights, and has never lost to someone not ranked in the top fifteen at the time they fought. 6 of Millers’ 11 losses in the UFC have come against former UFC champions or title challengers. Miller is at his best when he can go forward. He will get his inside, outside leg kicks going. His nasty right hook & good straight or overhand left. Miller will explode in with straight punches to the body then go up to the head. He will use the blitz to the body attack to setup doubles later in the fight. In his last match, Miller showed the ability to strike moving backwards. He got clipped with a big shot that rocked him but decided to plant his feet & spring on a counter which floored Clay Guida. Miller still has pop in his hands & I feel he throws the better, tighter punches in exchanges. Miller will throw some nice body & head kicks. He tends to get taken down a lot off his body kicks. Fighters catch them & drag him to the mat. Miller at this stage has taken some damage & been finished by strikes more than once. He is not as durable as Holtzman and has to avoid a fire fight. Miller has never been a big threat to finish opponents with strikes with just four career TKO’s. He has been KO/TKO’d twice himself.

Miller is still a fantastic wrestler and has a black belt in BJJ. Miller does a great job of landing reactive double legs and hides them well with his punches. He has a good single leg as well and can use it to drive his opponents to the cage and get a double leg. He is very dogged with his attempts, and willing to take punishment to get the fight to the mat. On top, Miller is awesome, he has great control and scrambling ability. He is very good at flowing on top and is always looking for submissions. He does a great job of finding the back & getting rear naked chokes. He is willing to really go for submissions such as guillotines and back takes, and when he gets them, he looks great, but it also gets him in trouble when he doesn’t. When he gets opponents hurt, he will dive on submissions. He rocked Guida, jumped on his neck & got a submission victory his last time out. His last three wins have come via submission after some shots landed on the feet. Miller has been susceptible to takedowns himself, but it has mostly been against large wrestlers; Benson Henderson, Francisco Trinaldo, Michael Chiesa, Beneil Dariush, and Pat Healy whom are all big wrestlers, and were able to grind him out. In this fight, I see Miller being the one getting the takedowns. He has 15 career submissions & has been submitted 3 times himself. His last five fights have all ended in round one so if this fight gets extended, we will have to see how Miller’s cardio lasts.

 

I think Holtzman is the better overall striker with a higher pace, more power, and the better chin. I also think he is the better wrestler. Miller is the better grappler though and more likely to get a submission. I don’t see Holzman dominating this fight at all, but I do think he wins this fight more than he loses and I will take him to win at least 2 of the 3 rounds.

Holtzman is my preferred DK play here. I would say I would fade Miller but that has really cost me in 3 of his last 4 fights and I think he could get a sub here as well, so I probably won’t fade him. I don’t see Miller making more than 1-2 of my lineups but Holtzman will be a guy I make a point to get into lineups because when he wins, he scores well. He is usually putting up over 100 when he wins, but in this fight, we might need the KO for that to happen. I don’t see him looking for a lot of takedowns against a guy like Miller, so I don’t see how he would get to 100 in a decision win, but at $8.2k we don’t even need that much, and I doubt this will be a boring fight where he scores badly in a win.  I think he is in play in all formats and I will likely look to be a bit overweight to the field personally.

Winner – Scott Holtzman via Unanimous Decision

 

Nathaniel Wood $8,600 vs John Dodson $7,600

Nathaniel Wood

Age: 26

Height: 5’6

Weight: 135

Reach: 69”

Gym: Stronger MMA

From: England

UFC Record: 3-0

Fight Matrix: 23

Last Fought: 11 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W8

Betting Odds: -160

 

The prospect Nathaniel Wood has started his UFC career 3-0 with three finishes. He is getting a step up & chance to take out a fading name on the way out in John Dodson. Wood is more of a Muay Thai striker. He plants his feet & has much less movement. He is very quick & has a nice jabs and hard leg kicks. He has a good overhand right. He will throw hard counter left hooks. He likes to counter with straight-right hands and hooks. He will throw a left hook, front kick to the body, straight-right hand combination. He has a nice front kick to the body. He looked great in his match with Andre Ewell. He walked down Andre Ewell and took it to him. Ha has good head movement and a great chin. He is willing to take shots to give his own. He throws a lot of volume, and slowly starts to wear on opponents if fights go long. If he gets clipped, he will back up to the cage, use head movement and a high guard to defend while trying to land one big shot. While it isn’t a great strategy IMO, he has been able to catch and finish opponents doing this. He has one punch knockout power if he lands clean and keeps his power for all three rounds. He dropped his opponent with a jab in his last match. He has 9 KO/TKO’s and has only been finished once by strikes due to doctors’ stoppage.

Nathaniel Wood has shown progression in his game and is starting to use his grappling offensively much more in fights. In the UFC, he has three submissions in three wins. Wood timed a nice body lock & double leg against Andre Ewell & controlled him easily. He was able to land big shots from inside his opponent’s guard. Wood is a veteran now. He works smart & doesn’t give up top position stupidly. Wood showed a nice back take & rear naked choke when Andre Ewell went to stand up. In round one of his last match, Wood was taken down with a body lock by Jose Quinonez but was able to sweep and stand up pretty quickly. In round two, he was able to takedown Quinonez with a body lock, take his back & get the rear naked choke. He has done that in back to back fights & it looks like that back take is his thing. He hits it like butter & the choke has come shortly after. Wood is very technically sound both on the feet & on the ground. Wood has an excellent front head lock series. He will jump on darces very quickly. Wood is dangerous on the ground, but I definitely think he will struggle to take & hold down Dodson. Wood has five submissions in his career. He has been submitted twice, but the last time he was submitted it was 2015. Wood has excellent cardio & will not get tired. He is going to want to keep the pace high, walk Dodson down & try to melt him.

 

John Dodson

Age: 35

Height: 5’3

Weight: 135

Reach: 66”

Gym: Jackson Wink MMA

From: New Mexico

UFC Record: 9-6

Fight Matrix: 22

Last Fought: 1 Year

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: +140

 

John Dodson has fallen on hard times of late. He has lost three of four fights, although they have come against the top of the division. Dodson’s last four fights have come against fighters inside the top five. He has lost two in a row & his last victory was almost two years ago. He has been out for over almost a year, so we will see if this break was beneficial. John Dodson is an extremely fast and explosive bantamweight. He uses short explosions in the form of a single punch counter or a combination. He has KO power in his hands and that’s why he can get away with being low output, when he lands he puts fighters to sleep or hurts them. Dodson likes to stay outside of boxing range but close enough to kick and will be fast enough to get out of the way of opponent’s counters even with the reach disadvantage in most fights. Dodson doesn’t really commit to his kicks, but he throws fast, low leg kicks to get range and mostly just feints and gets out the way of his opponents strikes and frustrating them. When they don’t expect it, he blitzes in with an explosive combination or counter and is very left hand heavy with very good speed. He works to the body with a left hook at the end of the combinations to get his opponent to drop their hands, and then he goes upstairs with his KO shot, the left hook. Dodson is good at landing straights to the body & then to the head. Dodson is extremely good at landing, angling, almost playing tag, until he can time a power shot. He is extremely hard to cut off or hit and has top notch defense and movement. The constant moving backwards, and barely evading shots, give the judges the impression he’s losing at times. He has had issues letting off in recent fights, but I would say his last fight was a bit better. He was able to drop Petr Yan by bouncing off the cage & countering with a straight-left. He was forced in a fire fight & while he did break a little in round three, he gave Yan a tough fight. Dodson has 11 career KO/TKO’s, but only one since his move up to 135 lbs 7 fights ago. He has never been finished.

Dodson doesn’t really use wrestling in his fights but is a two-time State Champion wrestler and uses it to stay on his feet or if there is a lull in the action. Dodson is tremendous at catching kicks and will use those to work takedowns. He also got a clinch takedown in his last match. Dodson has very good takedown defense, a great sprawl, heavy hips, and is like a cat. He can spring right back to his feet & is very hard to hold down. He probably will have to show that off in this matchup & defend a couple takedowns. Dodson has good cardio. He has close split decision losses to the elite of the division in Marlon Moraes and John Lineker and gave Petr Yan a good match. He is a hard style to deal with for anybody.

 

Wood is the up and coming prospect and Dodson is the proven vet with a lot of UFC experience.  This will be Wood’s toughest fight to date, but I do think he is the better fighter everywhere at this point in Dodson’s career. Dodson used to have a lot of power, but he hasn’t knocked anyone out in almost 4 years and he has been way too inactive in fights lately. Wood looks like he could be a serious contender in this division and I expect him to be the fighter throwing more volume, landing the harder shots, and the one more likely to land takedowns. I think Wood should get the job done here.

This is going to be Wood or pass for me. He has scored really well in his UFC wins so far but Dodson is a hard guy to score well against. He avoids getting into wild brawls, so I don’t see Wood having the same volume here and it will be tough to get Dodson to the ground and submit him. I think Wood is in play because of his $8.6k price tag, but if he was in the $9k’s he would likely be a guy I faded because I don’t know that he gets over 90-points in a win here. Dodson is a pass for me because the only way he scores well is a KO. He doesn’t have high volume and he isn’t a wrestler, so we are just relying on sig strikes from him and I would rather target bigger guys who are more likely to get an upset KO.

Winner – Nathaniel Wood via Unanimous Decision

 

Tim Means $9,100 vs Daniel Rodriguez $7,100

Tim Means

Age: 35

Height: 6’2

Weight: 170

Reach: 75”

Gym: Fit NHB

From: New Mexico

UFC Record: 9-6-1

Fight Matrix: 56

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: -280

 

Tim Means bounced back from injury with a submission victory in his last match. He had his back against the wall with that being the last fight on his contract and came through in a big way. He is getting the opportunity he asked for, fighting in his home state of New Mexico. He should be pumped up and ready to go. Tim Means is a very sharp striker. He has a long reach but is also nasty in close range. Means has nice one-twos and front kicks to the body. He will throw one-twos & right straights to the body as well. He throws hard low & oblique kicks to the legs. Means has a very accurate lead & counter left hook. He has a sharp counter right hook as well. He throws straight-right, left uppercut combinations. He has a nice step-in knee. He has good head movement and slips & rips very effectively. He will throw uppercut, overhand left combinations. He has nice high kicks. He keeps a high volume of punches out there, doubling and tripling up on jabs. Means does a good job of changing the speed of his punches and peppering fighters and mixing in faster, more powerful punches. He wears fighters out with pressure. Tim Means does like to stick in the pocket & fight in a danger zone. He is very comfortable slipping & ripping, using elbows, knees & short-range shots and winning the inside game. In his last match, that cost him as he got caught & knocked out in a fight he was dominating. He has only been finished twice by strikes and has notoriously had a great chin. Means has 19 KO/TKO’s.

Tim Means is nasty in the dirty boxing range, he has slicing elbows, short hooks and uppercuts. He throws nice knees to the body. He does a great job of using underhooks to defend takedowns & put fighters on their backs. He will also attack with guillotines. He did that against Belal Muhamad & almost rolled into mount but was stopped by the cage. He has good double leg & body lock takedowns. On top, he does a great job of posturing & throwing hard elbows & punches. He was able to takedown Ricky Rainey early & landed some brutal G&P for the finish. He tends to shoot takedowns when he gets hurt & can be submitted that way. He has good arm triangles but doesn’t look for submissions very often. In this fight, I do think mixing it up could be a smart game plan. Means has 4 career submissions. He has been submitted 4 times.

 

Daniel Rodriguez

Age: 33

Height: 6’0

Weight: 170

Reach: 75”

Gym: Tapout LA

From: California

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 271

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W6

Betting Odds: +240

 

Daniel Rodriguez will be making his UFC debut on short notice in hostile territory. He has the chips stacked against him fighting a grizzled veteran who has seen it all. Rodriguez does have a victory on the DWCS recently and has won six consecutive fights. Rodriguez is 10-1 overall, but his one loss was a robbery decision. Rodriguez is a technical striker. He is light on his feet, to complement great leg kicks. Rodriguez also has an excellent lead hand. He will switch stances and likes to use a right jab or check right hook. Rodriguez will keep the volume high & mostly works basics. He will throw a lot of jabs to the body and head, low kicks and gets ahead on points. His right hook has big power and he can shut opponent’s lights out with both hands. Rodriguez will attack the body with punches as well. Rodriguez has a nice jab, overhand left combination. His overhand left is his knockout shot & he will wing it with full power. He will throw a jab, duck under & come over the top with big left hooks. Rodriguez will overextend & leave himself susceptible to counters. Rodriguez has to be tight in this fight, work the basics, chop the legs, and once Means is compromised then start swinging for the finish. Rodriguez is a pressure fighter who cuts the cage off and is just a bruiser. He looks very durable but has to respect the striking of the Dirty Bird. Rodriguez has never been finished by strikes. He is willing to take shots to give shots & will turn up if he feels it’s close or he needs a finish. Rodriguez does hold his hands low and is susceptible to body shots. He got hurt with a body shot vs Rico Farrington. He is pretty open to being hit as he comes forward. Rodriguez has 6 career KO/TKO’s.

Daniel Rodriguez is a Tenth Planet trained grappler, but there is limited footage of him grappling online. Rodriguez is a thick, strong fighter for the division, and looks strong in the clinch. He has a nasty knee knockout in the clinch in his career. He did hit a body lock & double takedown vs Farrington. He seemed to time takedowns in the last 10 seconds of rounds to seal them. In previous fights, I’ve seen him defend takedowns, take top position & do work. He will move to mount & work strikes to finish the fight. In his contender series fight, he got a takedown late in round three, took mount & almost got the late finish. Rodriguez will hunt arm triangles from mount. When fighters give their backs, he will jump on rear naked chokes. Rodriguez has three career submissions & has never been submitted. He has strong cardio & is a dog. He will go for it & it should be a fun fight.

 

Rodriguez is making his UFC debut here at 33 years old and this looks like a rough matchup for him. He will be the younger fighter though and he looks to be the guy with more power and he can fight at a high pace. I just think he is too hittable and not technical enough for a guy like Means, and I think Means makes this a dirty fight and possibly finishes late.

This should be a good fight to target with the -225 FDGTD line. Means is the better fighter everywhere and I think he can score well no matter what round he finishes in. He likely will need that finish to end up on the optimal though, but I don’t see him having a terrible score in a win even if it goes all 3. Rodriguez looks like a KO or bust option and I think I will mix in him, Townsend, and Vargas in case one of them can get it. I don’t see any of these dogs being highly owned and they do have 1st round KO potential. I will likely get at least 1 lineup of each of those dogs this week in GPPs, but Means is my preferred play here in all formats.

Winner – Tim Means via 3rd round (T)KO

 

Lando Vannata $8,100 vs Yancy Medeiros $8,100

Lando Vannata

Age: 27

Height: 5’9

Weight: 155

Reach: 72.5”

Gym: Jackson’s MMA Acoma

From: New Mexico

UFC Record: 2-4-2

Fight Matrix: 167

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 1-2-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -130

 

Lando Vannata has had a very disappointing career so far in the UFC. The once highly touted prospect has lost all his luster & needs a win to keep his spot on the roster here. Vannata has been able to bounce back after losses & has yet to lose two UFC fights in a row. Vannata’s record of 2 wins, 2 draws & 4 losses are a sour one though & he has to turn it around. Lando Vannata is a very good striker. His movement is excellent & he is extremely fast in & out. In the first round Vannata is super dangerous. He walks fighters down while faking, feinting, moving in & out and controlling distance. He will switch stances & is very unpredictable. He will explode into combinations. He keeps his hands low and uses head movement to avoid shots and come back with counters. He can get hit with some big shots but rolls with them well & has a great chin. He has very crisp punches, nice combinations and really has nice kicks. Vannata has an excellent right hook & a nasty straight-left hand. He is excellent at pull countering with the left hand and will double, even triple up on the punch. Vannata will use the left hook to setup straight punch blitzes. Vannata will throw a nasty left hook, right straight combination. He has a nasty uppercut. When he gets opponents backing up & starts landing the jab, fighters are in trouble because he puts together crazy combinations. He will attack the body with left hooks & then go upstairs with head kicks. Vannata has very nice leg kicks. He will throw them inside, outside along with oblique kicks. When he fought Matt Frevola, he was getting countered due to not setting up his leg kicks. He was dropped due to this. He will throw sanchai kicks and spinning heel kicks extremely fluidly. His spinning heel kick KO of John was a thing of beauty. He sets the heel kicks up with the oblique kick to the knee. He also is very good at catching kicks & returning with spinning kicks of his own. He has a good spinning backfist. Vannata can leave his chin right in the air at times & get tagged with huge shots. Vannata’s leg kick defense has been exposed in his last few fights. He doesn’t check kicks, is heavy on his lead leg & has had big issues with calf kicks. His chin is sick, he has never been finished with strikes in his career and has been in some wars. He was hurt badly by Matt Frevola & Tony Ferguson. Vannata has grit & is willing to dig deep in a dog fight. He has 4 KO/TKO’s.

Lando Vannata is a former college wrestler & a good grappler. He is very good at using his takedowns to setup shots off the breaks. Vannata will get deep in on the legs, disengage & throw a quick head kick or hook that opponents don’t see. He was able to drop Matt Frevola with a head kick on the break in their fight. He has fast single & double leg shots & good takedowns overall. He landed a nice body lock takedown in his last match. Against Mariano, Vannata was able to posture up inside Mariano’s guard & land some big shots. He used the punches to move to side control, grabbed the kimura & got the finish. Lando Vannata’s takedown defense is excellent. He has a great sprawl & is very good at disengaging from the clinch. He is very good at using the guillotine to counter takedowns and reverse to top position. David Teymur was able to land a few blast doubles on him but couldn’t control position on top. Vannata is extremely hard to hold down & creates scrambles almost immediately. He will roll for leg locks. I don’t expect there to be much grappling in this fight. Vannata has 5 submissions & has been submitted one time. His cardio used to be very poor, but in his fight with Matt Frevola he went hard for 3 rounds.

 

Yancy Medeiros

Age: 32

Height: 5’10

Weight: 155

Reach: 75.5”

Gym: Team Hakuilua

From: Hawaii

UFC Record: 6-6-1

Fight Matrix: 51

Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: +110

 

Yancy Medeiros is a veteran in the game by now, having fought 13 times in the UFC. He’s an action fighter who goes in there & tries to get the finish. Medeiros has taken a lot of damage over his career & it’s starting to show. His last two fights he has been finished by KO/TKO & largely dominated. Medeiros hasn’t fought in over a year and this could be a make or break fight for him going forward in his career. Everyone who is a big UFC fan knows what Yancy is about by know. He is a tough, scrappy fighter who is ready for war at all times. He has a nice jab & a good right cross. He will use the straight-right hand as a lead & is accurate with it. He has a good straight-right hand, left hook combination. He will change stances mid combination & is tricky on the feet. He will dig to the body with jabs & hard hooks. He has nice body kicks & good spinning back kicks to the body & head. He likes to move & counter early and slowly as his opponent wears down start to put the pressure on. Medeiros doesn’t move his head much & when he gets hit clean, he will stand right in front of opponents and try to swing back. He can get very wild & sloppy. Yancy also likes to use a high guard which leaves him susceptible to body shots. He got hammered with constant body shots against Cowboy Oliveira. Yancy will take it, but it adds up for sure. Medeiros does have big knockout power and can finish the fight with one shot. He has 8 KO/TKO’s in his career. He has a great chin, but recently he has been getting hurt & was finished in his last two matches. He will never quit, but eventually the body will start betraying you. He has been finished by KO/TKO twice.

Yancy Medeiros is an underrated grappler, and dangerous with submissions. He is good in the clinch and has nice knees and elbows. He will unload with body shots & uppercuts in the clinch. He has good clinch takedowns & will transition quickly to dominant positions & has nasty elbows from mount. He will sacrifice position to land big shots and his top control isn’t great. He has good takedown defense & will counter with front chokes such as darces & anacondas. He hit a really nice counter to Alex Cowboy Oliveira’s takedown, moved directly into mount & landed some big shots. He had a great bulldog choke finish against Daman Jackson where he put him to sleep. He has good sweeps from bottom as well & is hard to hold down. In his last match, he fought a specialist in Gregor Gillespie & had nothing for his chain wrestling. When he was taken down, he mounted little defense & eventually got overwhelmed & TKO’d. He shouldn’t have to worry about much grappling in this contest & it should be on the feet. Medeiros has 4 submissions & only been submitted one time in his career.

 

These guys like to throw down and this could be the Fight of the Night. Medeiros is going to be the bigger, longer guy and that could cause Vannata issues on the feet. I think Vannata is more well-rounded everywhere though and more dangerous as well. I think this is a close fight, but I would give Vannata slightly better than a 50/50 chance here, so he is my pick and if he becomes an underdog I would be interested in a play.

This will be a fight I target in GPPs and my preferred play of the two is Lando. I think Lando is the fighter more likely to land a KO as well as takedowns. I think he is the more likely guy to win early and score well and that is what I like about him. I am not confident in him getting the win at all, I just think he has the higher ceiling and if he wins I think he pays off his price tag. Yancy will make some of my lineups as well and I think the longer this fight goes the better it will be for him. We do have a -125 FDGTD line here so I want to get both sides of this fight and even make some duplicate lineups where I have the same 5 other guys and just use each side of this fight, so I won’t care who wins if it scores well. I don’t love this fight for cash games but if you are hovering in that mid-range this week I am not against using whichever guy you prefer.

Winner – Lando Vannata via 1st round (T)KO

 

Ray Borg $8,300 vs Rogerio Bontorin $7,900

Ray Borg

Age: 26

Height: 5’4

Weight: 125

Reach: 63”

Gym: Fit NHB

From: New Mexico

UFC Record: 6-4

Fight Matrix: 9

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: -155

 

Ray Borg will be dropping back down to FLW after a two fight stretch at 135 lbs. Borg went 1-1 in his two fights at BW, but FLW is his weight class. Borg worked his way up to a title shot at this division & will be looking to do so again. At 26 years old he still very much has his best years ahead of him. Borg is a very fast, explosive athlete and an elite wrestler. His striking has gotten a lot better, but it looked to regress in his last match. He relies on a lot of blitzes. He likes to throw overhand right, straight-left combinations. He has a nice check left hook. He has a very nice lead uppercut & is very fast. He will throw a left hook to a leg kick combination. He does a great job of faking single legs & throwing uppercuts or faking double legs and throwing overhand rights. In his last fight, he looked much slower & a bit doughy at 135. He was using a high guard & head movement to just walk into the clinch. Borg only has career TKO but does pack some power in his punches. He has a good chin & is a tough fighter who won’t be easy to put away.

Ray Borg is an elite wrestler. He is very explosive & has great double legs. He is very fast closing the distance & sets his shots up very well with his strikes. He has nice single leg shots & good chain wrestling. He will get in on a single leg, take the back standing & land a suplex. He will also get in on a double transition to a body lock & dump opponents. He will look to hold opponents against the fence & search for singles & doubles. He landed multiple slam double legs in his last match and looked to jump on the back. On top, he is excellent. He throws a large volume of ground & pound is always looking to move to dominant positions. He has heavy elbows on top & can cut opponents. He has a great mount & is always looking to take the back. He is very good at taking the back as opponents stand up. He will attack with guillotines & darces & then quickly scramble to take the back. He is very good in scrambles & almost always ends up in top position. He has good arm triangles & rear naked chokes. In his last fight, he struggled to hold Kenney down & was controlled & taken down himself. He will attack with omaplatas and armbars off his back to create scrambles. He has proven he can hang on the ground with elite fighters on the mat & win such as Jussier Formiga. He looked in much better shape to me at 125 lbs.  He has 6 career submissions, and has been submitted one time.

 

Rogerio Bontorin

Age: 27

Height: 5’5

Weight: 125

Reach: 67”

Gym: Gile Ribeiro Team

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 2-0

Fight Matrix: 15

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W4

Betting Odds: +135

 

Rogerio Bontorin has had an impressive start to his UFC career. He has won back to back matches and is undefeated so far in the octagon. Bontorin is 16-1 overall and could jump into the title mix at FLW with a win here. Rogerio Bontorin is a big, powerful FLW. As a striker, he is a stance switcher, but spends the majority of time in southpaw. Bontorin isn’t the fastest guy, but he has bricks for hands, and is extremely durable. Bontorin is constantly pressuring and looking to cut off the cage. Bontorin has a nice jab that he should throw much more than he does. He has a power jab and can land big, double jab, straight or overhand left combinations. Bontorin loves to use the straight & overhand left to start combinations. He will throw heavy straight-left, right hook, left hook combinations. Bontorin is good at slipping & ripping with body shots. Bontorin will throw some occasional leg & body kicks but isn’t a big kicker. Bontorin will wing left hooks and can get a little wild and throw from too far out. Bontorin can be low volume in fights as well. He definitely has a great chin. He took some huge shots against Bibulatov & never took a backwards step. Bontorin also absorbed some heavy shots to the body. At range in that fight Bibulatov was too fast & was largely out striking Bontorin.  He ate a huge bomb against Raulian Paiva that opened up a pretty big cut & rocked him. That cut seemed to invigorate Bontorin, as shortly after it, he was coming forward winging wild hooks and overhands. He landed a nasty knee that sliced Paiva wide open & finished the fight. It was a crazy fight with both guys getting rocked and the fight getting stopped to check cuts on both men all in the very first round. Rogerio Bontorin has been hurt badly in previous fights but has yet to be taken out with strikes. Bontorin doesn’t have a lot of finishes on the feet. He has three TKO’s, but I believe only one was due to strikes from standing position. He finished his last match due to a cut.

Rogerio Bontorin is an excellent grappler, and we should see some awesome scrambles in this contest. He is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu & is comfortable wherever the fight goes on the mat. Rogerio Bontorin showed excellent timing on his level changes against Raulian Paiva. Bontorin struggled to get in on the legs against Magomed Bibulatov but showed his strength when he did against Paiva. Bontorin was able to get in on the double, back Paiva to the cage, elevate & slam him multiple times. In Bontorin’s match with Bibulatov, Bibulatov was able to take him down four times. He was able to land some throws in the clinch & takedowns against the cage. Bontorin’s takedown defense is solid, but I do feel Borg is probably the better wrestler. When it hits the mat is when the fun will begin. Bontorin is excellent off his back and has great sweeps. He will attack immediately with armbars, triangles & omaplatas. In his match with Bibulatov, he was able to use his guard to stand up pretty quickly. Bibulatov was able to control him a bit better when he stuffed him against the cage. Bontorin was able to reverse some takedowns as well and took the back of Bibulatov in multiple rounds. Bontorin is a back taking specialist & has eight rear naked choke victories to his name. Bontorin has some armbars & heel hook victories on his record and is a dangerous man on the ground. He has 11 career submissions overall. Bontorin was submitted in his lone loss, but it was after being stunned. When Bontorin gets hurt he will go into wrestling mode & can be caught. Bontorin has excellent cardio & will not waiver from the task at hand. He is a warrior that will fight to the finish.

 

This should be a fun one between an up and coming prospect in Bontorin and a long-time vet in Borg. I think Bontorin is going to be the better striker here and more dangerous on the feet as well. The grappling should be real fun in this one, but I think Borg is the better grappler and I do expect this fight to include a decent amount of grappling. If Borg can land takedowns, then I think he can win rounds with top control and possibly lock up a submission. I don’t see him having much success on the feet over Bontorin though and we could see Bontorin land takedowns of his own. I think this is going to be a dog or pass fight for me, so I will take Bontorin as my pick.

I like this fight a lot for DK. I will be focusing in this mid-range for a lot of lineups I build, and this should be a fun fight with a decent amount of grappling. Bontorin is my favorite underdog on the card because I think he is the most live underdog who also has a high ceiling in this fight. However, I think Borg could score really well himself with his grappling, so I want to target both sides of this fight and hopefully be overweight to both guys. With these guys being right there in the mid-range, I think the winner scores over 10x here and has a decent shot of being on the nuts lineup.

Winner – Rogerio Bontorin via Split Decision

 

Brok Weaver $9,200 vs Kazula Vargas $7,000

Brok Weaver

Age: 28

Height: 6’0

Weight: 155

Reach: 73”

Gym: American Top Team

From: Alabama

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 208

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W7

Betting Odds: -270

 

Brok Weaver is finally making his UFC debut after a couple misfires. He was originally supposed to debut late last year but was pulled from the card. Weaver had some issues with USADA & high testosterone levels, but it has all been resolved. He will be fighting against Mexican fighter Rodrigo Vargas in what should be a fun fight. Brok Weaver is definitely the more technical boxer. Weaver puts combinations together to the body and head and has faster, more fluid hands. Weaver controls distance well with feints. He has a nice jab, a good one-two, and a heavy left hook. Weaver has nice hook combos in close range. He will go body, head with the combinations. Weaver likes to throw a left straight to the body to an overhand right combination. Brok Weaver in some fights uses a lot of oblique kicks to the legs. He will stand in front of opponents, feint & look to counter, but can be low volume. In this fight, he has to use his style from his last match, move forward & maul. Weaver will throw some occasional round kicks to the legs, body & head, but not often. Weaver does cut the cage off & backs opponents up well. He is excellent at using the left hook to tag opponents as they try to circle off the cage. Weaver is nasty and will engage in brawls. He will get cut & use his fingers to spread the blood on his face & scream. He thoroughly enjoys fighting and that is a dangerous guy. Weaver has fought in some boxing matches & Bare-knuckle FC vs Joe Riggs who is a huge guy. He definitely is the better boxer in this match. Weaver can get in some exchanges, but overall, he has good defense.  Weaver doesn’t have the biggest power with only 2 KO/TKO’s. Weaver has a good chin & has only been finished once by strikes.

Brok Weaver is a good grappler and will be the much better wrestler. Weaver is strong in the clinch, even at 170 lbs. He will dig nice underhooks, land short shots, and hit trips & body locks. Weaver is very good with dirty boxing. He will never let opponents rest. He will throw constant knees and go to the body and head with hooks & short uppercuts & just work opponents. Weaver will stay connected if opponents try to stand up after the trips, get the waist, circle to the back & dump his opponents. Weaver will take the back after getting those takedowns as well. Weaver is getting much better at faking pull counters & then ducking under into a blast double. Weaver was taken down by Devin Smyth early with two explosive double legs. In top position, Weaver has good control & heavy ground & pound. Weaver has good back takes. He was able to get a rear naked choke against Tyler Hill in a recent fight. Weaver was able to scramble back to his feet and slow cooked Smyth by standing back up and keeping the pressure high. After the initial burst from Smyth, Weaver was largely able to defend all of Smyth’s shots against the cage with nice, wide heavy hips. He landed some big elbows to the head & knees to the body. Smyth is a very explosive 170 lber, so I think at 155 his takedown defense, and ability to stand up will be even better. Weaver has 3 submissions & has been submitted one time. Weaver has great cardio & will never break.

 

Rodrigo Kazula Vargas

Age: 34

Height: 5’8

Weight: 155

Reach: 71”

Gym: Mexican Pride Gym

From: Mexico

UFC Record: 0-1

Fight Matrix: 319

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +230

 

Rodrigo Vargas is getting a second opportunity at UFC glory after falling short in his debut. He was defeated pretty easily by Alexa Da Silva and didn’t have a great performance. Vargas enters this fight as a pretty big underdog. Vargas to me is a very raw guy. He trains out of Mexican Pride Gym which is a gym with very weak fighters. He is the head coach at the gym as well as the best fighter, so I imagine he is doing all his game plans and everything himself. Vargas has been bouncing around to a bunch of different gyms trying to get good looks & different coaching, but he doesn’t have a main coach or training partners. Vargas starts quickly & is good in the first round. I feel his best chance at a victory is if Weaver comes in emotional and brawls early. Vargas’s hands are not very good. He has a short reach & struggles to find his range with his punches. He will try to use head movement to get inside & land hooks and will occasionally throw straights & overhands. He does have some decent kicks with his rear leg. He will throw them to the legs body & head. He sometimes will throw jumping head kicks as well, but overall to me his striking is not good. He is very heavy on his lead leg, struggles to get meaningful offense going & is very emotional. When he gets hit he will wane in & get wild. He is very hittable but has a good chin & power. He has 6 KO/TKO’s and has never been finished with strikes.

Vargas will try to mix it up with his grappling but has average wrestling at best. He will back fighters up against the cage & take them down with singles & doubles. I have seen him land some trip takedowns as well. On top, he is aggressive with ground & pound, but not technical, and green in the Jiu-Jitsu realm. His defensive wresting is not good. He can get taken down with well-timed shots easily & doesn’t have good chain wrestling against the cage. He doesn’t offer much off his back & can be held down. That is how he lost his last match. Alex Da Silva was able to take his back time & time again, and Vargas never once stood back to his feet. Vargas tends to get tired when forced to wrestle & his movements become very labored. Vargas has 3 submissions & has been submitted one time.

 

I have a new rule, for now anyways, to stay away from betting favorites in their UFC debut. So, I will be staying away from Brok here, but I do think he gets the job done. He is the better fighter everywhere and can win this fight with his boxing or grappling. I would say the one edge Vargas has is power, so he should be looking for a KO in this fight, but if Brok can avoid it then he should cruise.

Fight Goes To Decision is -175 and that makes me not like this fight much for DK. I think Brok wins this fight, but I see him mostly boxing and that is a hefty price tag to pay off without a finish. I think he could grapple and is more in play if you think that is the case, but he is a guy I won’t look to much this week. I think Vargas could get a KO here and he will be low owned, but if he doesn’t get the KO I don’t see him winning or scoring well, so he is just a GPP punt option for me to differentiate yourself from the field and possibly make a big jump if he can get the KO.

Winner – Brok Weaver via Unanimous Decision

 

Montana De La Rosa $8,700 vs Mara Romero Borella $7,500

Montana De La Rosa

Age: 25

Height: 5’7

Weight: 125

Reach: 68”

Gym: Genesis BJJ

From: Texas

UFC Record: 3-1

Fight Matrix: 46

Last Fought: 8 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -175

 

Montana De La Rosa suffered her first setback in the UFC her last time out. She was dominated by Andrea Lee and didn’t look great. She is sharing this card with her husband, so they had to have trained hard & looking to earn two impressive wins. De La Rosa’s striking is much improved. She is long & tries to accentuate her reach by throwing a jab, head movement, & lateral footwork. She is still a bit flat footed & fighters who are good strikers with takedown defense could give her problems. She will throw nice check left hooks & left hook, right hook combinations in the pocket. She will mix uppercuts in with her hook combinations. She will throw occasional front kicks to the body, which I feel she should do more. She is tough & will take shots to get inside and get in the clinch. She was still coming forward with a crimson mask of blood against Nicco Montano. De La Rosa doesn’t have great power, and never won a fight by KO/TKO. She has been finished by TKO one time against top 15 UFC fighter Cynthia Calvillo.

De La Rosa is a good grappler. She is strong in the clinch and has good body lock takedowns. She will take shots to get in and grab an underhook, then dig her other, and is very physically strong in the clinch. She will use her length to get body lock trips & she has good control against the cage. She will throw knees to the body, elbows to the head & she has a solid Muay Thai plum clinch. She wears fighters out in the clinch & zaps their gas tanks.  She will circle to the back from the clinch & go for standing back takes. In this fight, I feel she won’t be able to overpower Borella in the clinch. When she was out muscled on TUF vs Montano it didn’t bode well for her. Montano was able to land some big knees to the body and get several takedowns. She was able to pass De La Rosa’s guard, control her on the mat & landed some nice G&P. She will try to catch guillotines on takedown attempts and has an active guard. I think that she will not be able to do much off her back against Borella though. She struggles with top pressure. She is opportunistic in scrambles for submissions. She was able to survive a deep armbar, transition to the back & get a rear naked choke against Rachael Ostovich. She has earned her last 4 wins overall via submission & has 8 submissions overall. She has been submitted one time by Mackenzie Dern.

 

Mara Romero Borella

Age: 33

Height: 5’6

Weight: 125

Reach: 67”

Gym: American Top Team

From: Italy

UFC Record: 2-2

Fight Matrix: 39

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +155

 

Mara Romero Borella needs to bounce back in a big way here. She was knocked out by Lauren Murphy in her last match. Borella is flat footed and relies heavily on opponents closing the distance where she can counter. She will throw leg kicks, and a straight-right hand. She will throw a straight-right, left hook combination. She will throw right hook, leg kick combinations. She likes to close the distance with straight punch flurries, but they are a bit sloppy. She is low output & plods into range. She can’t strike moving backwards & is very hittable. Borella will wane in with no feints or fakes, get countered & has a weak chin. She got slept with a big knee in her last match. Mara isn’t super dangerous with her striking with only 3 KO/TKO’s in her career. She has been finished 4 times via KO/TKO.

Borella is a very aggressive & physical fighter. She likes to duck under, get double underhooks & drive her opponents to the ground. She isn’t very explosive, so she doesn’t shoot many takedowns and fighters have to close the distance for her to take them down. She doesn’t have the fastest feet & has to do a lot of reaching to get into the clinch, which is easy to defend. If she can get on top, she is strong with heavy pressure. She has good pressure passes and will methodically work from half guard to mount to the back where she has a good rear naked choke. She has 4 career submissions and been submitted 1 time in her career. This fight could come down to who is the better grappler to me. I think it’s going to be Borella closing the distance, pushing her against the cage & the battle will be won from there. If she can control there, land short punches, knees & eventually get her takedowns she will have success. She is very aggressive & kept Taila Santos against the cage for a majority of her last fight. She has four submissions in her career & has never been submitted.

 

This is a close one, but I think De La Rosa is the better grappler and Borella is the better striker. I think De La Rosa can keep rounds close on the feet and use her wrestling to try and steal rounds, but she isn’t a great wrestler, so I wouldn’t want to rely on her having to get the fight to the mat. I do think she probably wins this fight more than she loses it but at this line it might be a dog or pass fight for me. I might change my pick on this later in the week but right now I will take the underdog in a close fight.

Borella is my preferred play here just because I think she is one of the more live underdogs on the card. I don’t see her scoring well though and I think if there is a GPP ceiling in this fight then it would be on the De La Rosa side. She is the one that will be looking to grapple and if she can get an early sub she will pay off this salary. I am not against using Montana, but I won’t have much of her. I will get some Borella shares but I could see her winning this fight with 50-60 DK points and that won’t help us unless basically all favorites win on this card. This fight does have a -250 Fight Goes To Decision line so ultimately, I think there are better fights to target.

Winner – Mara Romero Borella via Split Decision

 

Michel Pereira $8,500 vs Diego Sanchez $7,700

Michel Pereira

Age: 26

Height: 6’1

Weight: 170

Reach: 73”

Gym: Scorpion Fighting Systems

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 1-1

Fight Matrix: 142

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -165

 

Michel Pereira needs to bounce back in a big way. He suffered an embarrassing loss in his last match. Pereira was fighting a UFC newcomer on short notice, moving up a weight class, and had all the advantages heading into the fight. Pereira gassed out very quickly & ended up losing via decision. To compound that he also missed weight & just had an awful showing that whole week. He is getting a big opportunity here to fight a legend in Diego Sanchez in his hometown. If he can get a highlight reel win over Diego, that will be huge for his brand. This guy fights like no one else ever. He will literally moon sault off the cage mid fight, throw showtime kicks & superman punches off the cage, and is just an overall wild man. I’m not sure he can pull these types of crazy techniques off vs legit fighters, and he hasn’t fought good competition. He has really only defeated one legit guy over his career in Danny Roberts. Pereira is very athletic & has good movement. He has a solid jab & a very heavy straight-right hand. He has a very long reach & will lunge forward with straight-right hands. He will throw solid one-twos and likes to go to the body with jabs & then throw the straight-right to the head. He will throw heavy hooks to the body. He will throw a lot of front kicks to the body & oblique kicks to the leg. He will do a lot of dancing & hand movement to lull opponents to sleep & then explode in with a flying kick, knee or punch combination. I have seen him do a back flip into a body kick, straight-right hand combination. He will throw 360 roundhouse kicks. He has a decent spinning back kick to the head. His front knees to the body & head aren’t bad and overall the guy is an athletic, dangerous fighter. He leaves a lot to be desired in terms of defense. He holds his hands low & opponents with good boxing can land clean on him. In the pocket, he will brawl & rely on his chin to hold up. I don’t think he has a very good chin & when opponents back him up towards the cage they can tee off on him. I have seen him crumble to shots that didn’t look that powerful against the cage. Opponents seem to be able to back him up & keep him against the cage at times, but he will throw kicks & superman punches off the cage to try to get off it. He can be a bit low output in between his blitz combinations. When he sees opponents are hurt, he is a finisher & will turn up the heat.  He has 9 KO/TKO’s & has finished his last four wins by KO/TKO. He has only been finished by strikes one time.

Michel Pereira isn’t much of a grappler, but he uses the clinch effectively. He will close the distance with hooks or straight punches and grab the Muay Thai plum & land knees to the body & head. He doesn’t have good defense in the clinch & opponents can land big overhands over the top & uppercuts up the middle. I have seen him shoot singles & doubles & he got a double leg in his last match. His wrestling doesn’t look very good. In top position, Pereira uses it more to take a break. He will just lay in opponent’s guards & try to land short hammerfists & punches. He will try crazy things such as back flip guard passes. I have even seen him drop an opponent against the cage, jump on the top of the cage & moon sault off it over his opponent as he stood up & then jumping side kicked him to the face. In his last match, he gassed out & then was dominated with grappling. Tristan Connelly was able to get in on his legs & put him on his back. When Connelly got top position, Pereira really struggled to do much of anything or get back to his feet. I have seen him hit with some big hammerfists in his guard & I feel an experienced grappler could dominate him on the ground. Pereira does have six submissions & only has been submitted once. Pereira has finished 15 of his 21 wins. He is only 6-8 in decisions. Pereira needs to come out fast, unpredictable & try to take Sanchez out early.

 

Diego Sanchez

Age: 38

Height: 5’10

Weight: 170

Reach: 72”

Gym: School of Self Awareness

From: New Mexico

UFC Record: 21-12

Fight Matrix: 61

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +145

 

Diego Sanchez is still realizing his UFC dreams. The ultimate fighter one winner went 1-1 in 2019 & is 2-1 in his last 3 fights. Sanchez has returned to his mauling style & is much more grappling centric. He is likely the smallest WW on the roster & going to be much smaller in this fight. Sanchez is also training with an odd guy & setup. I am hoping he has gotten the looks he’s needed to be successful on Saturday. His striking has never been super impressive, but he is relentless. He will throw hard overhand rights & right hooks. He will throw left straight, overhand right, or right uppercut combinations. He will throw a wild lead left hook & can really overextend with it. He will throw hard leg & body kicks. He has shown a nice head kick years ago dropping Clay Guida with one. He is still very aggressive & takes the center immediately. When he gets hurt, he still has that dog in him & will bite down and try to get it back. His chin is gone & when he does that fighters put him out cold. I would have the same game plan as his last match; Use his strikes solely to get inside & get takedowns. Sanchez has never been known as a power guy with 9 finishes by KO/TKO but got his first one since 2008 vs Mickey Gall. He is one of the most durable fighters in UFC history, but the wars have caught up to him. He has been KO/TKO’d in his last three losses, and 4 times overall.

Sanchez is a grinding, relentless wrestler and returned to that style in his last match. The Nightmare was able to takedown White & Gall at will, control and beat them up on the ground. He will run across the cage & attack for the takedown right away. He has a good single leg entry & is very strong. He can pick up and dump his opponents. He has good double leg entries as well. He likes to get the takedowns against the fence. On top, he has great control & strong ground and pound. He is super active & relentless with his volume. He has phenomenal cardio and will put a storm on opponents and make them give up. His last two wins have come against submission grapplers where he just grinded them out. He was out grappled positionally in his last match by Michael Chiesa but got some takedowns & held his own. Chiesa just defeated RDA so that loss does not look to bad. Sanchez has never been submitted in his illustrious career. He has 9 career submissions, but 0 in the UFC. Sanchez has amazing heart cardio & is willing to die in there.

 

Pereira looks to be a KO or bust type fighter and Sanchez is towards the end of his career. I think the most likely outcome in this fight is a Pereira KO and that is what I am picking here. However, if he doesn’t get it then Diego can definitely grind him out and possibly even out strike him over the course of 3-rounds. Not sure I would want to lay the juice here, but I think Pereira takes him out early.

I like both sides of this fight but more so Pereira. I think if he wins, it is likely early, and it would be by KO. There is a good chance he is on the optimal lineup if that happens at his salary, so he will be a guy I look to get in a lot of GPP lineups. Sanchez is very in play as well because if Pereira doesn’t get the KO, I think he loses and Sanchez can grind him out with wrestling. I don’t think this fight is a must have fight, but it will be one I target a lot and it will be in more than half my total lineups.

Winner – Michel Pereira via (T)KO

 

Corey Anderson $8,900 vs Jan Blachowicz $7,300

Corey Anderson

Age: 30

Height: 6’3

Weight: 205

Reach: 79”

Gym: Nick Catone’s MMA

From: Illinois

UFC Record: 10-4

Fight Matrix: 9

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W4

Betting Odds: -200

 

Corey Anderson enters this rematch with Jan Blachowicz with one thing on his mind. A victory will finally net him the ever-elusive title shot. Anderson is finally getting some recognition after defeating Johnny Walker & is likely next with a win here.  Anderson has very good lateral & inside, outside movement. He has a great jab to the body & head. He has a good straight-right hand & overhand right. He has good head movement & will stay in the pocket, slip and return with counters. He has nice check left hooks in close range. He has very good fakes & false starts. He will fake level changes & land nasty uppercuts. He will throw good combinations such as overhand rights to left hooks, and left hooks to the body to an overhand right. He throws a ton of volume and never lets his opponents rest or get comfortable. Corey finally sat down on some punches & took someone out his last match. He got a nasty knockout of Johnny Walker & showed everyone he has that power too. Anderson will throw nice leg & body kicks. He will throw jump knees when fighters try and take him down. Anderson doesn’t have big power and relies more on volume & wrestling. He has 5 KO/TKO’s in his career. He has a major chin problem & has been KO/TKO’d 3 times.

Corey Anderson is a tremendous wrestler. Anderson does a great job of ducking under and getting double legs. His long arms allow him to lock his hands easier and get nice slams. He has a strong drive on his doubles and if he can’t take opponents down he will drive them to the cage and work from there. He is very good in the clinch. He has good control and will land hard elbows and knees. He has good doubles & singles from that position as well. He does a great job of reshooting quickly if opponents deny the attempt and wearing them out. On top, he is very strong, he does a great job of getting to half guard, trapping an arm and throwing hard ground & pound. He forces fighters to give their backs where he has great control and will flatten opponents out and land shots. He is great in the scrambles and will usually win & stay on top. He is extremely hard to hold down & does a good job of creating scrambles and wrestling positions. In the first fight between these two, Anderson was able to take him down & beat him up. He landed over 200 elbows in top position & really dominated Jan. His cardio is elite, and he definitely will be the better conditioned athlete in this fight. Anderson has no submissions & is more about controlling & winning the fight via decision.

 

Jan Blachowicz

Age: 35

Height: 6’2

Weight: 205

Reach: 78”

Gym: Berkut WCA Fight Team

From: Poland

UFC Record: 8-5

Fight Matrix: 5

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: +170

 

Jan Blachowicz has quietly built up a great resume in the UFC LHW division. He has won 6 of his last 7 fights defeating some big names along the way. Jan has taken down Jared Cannonier, Jimi Manuwa, Jacare Souza, and Luke Rockhold during this run. His one loss was to Maheta Santos who went to split decision win Jon Jones. A win here for Jan would put him in prime position to ask for a title shot himself.  Jan has a very good jab, and he keeps a high guard while using solid lateral movement, fakes and feints to setup his shots. He has a nasty uppercut and will double or even triple up on the jab. He was able to close the distance with long, straight punches and hooks against Manuwa and was super-fast and accurate with his hands dropping Manuwa multiple times. In the pocket, he does a great job of landing short left and right hooks along with his uppercut. He has great eyes in the pocket and is calm and uses good head movement to see the shots from his opponent coming and then countering. He has a nasty left body kick, but he doesn’t throw it as much as he used to. He has a nice inside leg kick. He will finish combinations with a nice clinch knee. He will go high with head kicks. In his last fight, he was extremely low volume & couldn’t get his back off the fence. He has to have a better showing against Anderson. He has 6 career KO/TKO’s & an insane chin. He has been KO/TKO’d just one time in his career vs Thiago Santos.

Blachowicz does a great job of setting up double leg takedowns and is a black belt in BJJ. He is pretty strong in the clinch, he has good underhooks and will land short shots and control. On top, he is very strong with good ground & pound and dangerous submissions. He showed some great strength in his last match sweeping Krylov after he took him down & dominating on top. He was able to transition with ease & always was looking for kimuras and straight armbars. He eventually took Krylov down again to start the round and quickly transitioned to dice control again, grabbed an arm triangle and closed the show. Jan has pretty solid takedown defense when he has the cardio and he really lost in the past mainly due to cardio issues. When he is put on his back, he tends to struggle. He will look for an old school armbar from the guard, but not much else. If Anderson gets him to the mat, he will be in trouble. I’m sure he will remember what happened the first time & maybe even could check out mentally. He has returned to his old gym from when he was successful early in his career and has looked phenomenal. Berkut WCA Fight Team is one of the best teams in Poland packed with talent including great HW boxer Artur Szpilka. They have produced UFC fighters Daniel Omelunchuk, Bartosz Fabinski, Piotr Strauss, and Damian Stasiak. Blachowicz has 9 career submissions, and has been submitted just once himself.

 

These guys already fought before, and Anderson dominated for a unanimous Decision. This should come down to whether or not Anderson’s chin can hold up as well and if so I expect the same. He is one of the best wrestlers in the division and he should have no issue winning rounds against Jan with his wrestling. He was 4 for 4 on takedowns in their first fight and now he has a possible title shot on the line with a win. He also can hang on the feet, but his biggest issue is his chin and Jan does have power. If Jan doesn’t get the KO here, then I don’t see how he gets his hand raised and I see Corey’s wrestling getting the job done.

On DraftKings, Anderson is my preferred play here in all formats, but this is going to be an all-in fight for me. I think Anderson either dominates or gets knocked out. Either way, the winner should pay off their salary. The one way this wouldn’t end up on the optimal would be if Anderson dominates a couple of rounds, and then gets KO’d. I just don’t see how Anderson wins and doesn’t pay off his salary, so he is my favorite play on the card. He does have a low floor with his chin though, so I think fading this fight in cash games is fine and you can stack as well and likely lock in 100+ with the win.

Winner – Corey Anderson via Unanimous Decision

 

 

 

Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!

 

 

 

*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru

**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.

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