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Winning NBA Games in 2020 – DFS Army Primer

DFS NBA is a popular sport, but have people really evolved with the game since 2015?  Our primer series articles are here to help re-acclimate you and point you in the right direction for 2020 and beyond.

Twitter handles to follow:
@keg4540 – CashKeg
@MadnessDFS – Madness
@Mutt_18 – Mutt
@DfsBlande – Blande
@AFriedman15DFS – Friedman

How the Games Have Changed

Simply stated, the money lines are higher and the games are a bit tougher….more precise.  The margin for error is slimmer, but in no way does that mean you don’t have an edge.  In 2020, however, you need access to sharp projections, current research tools, an optimizer, and probably experts that can coach you by discussing the deeper points of strategy, game theory, and exploiting the masses stuck in the past.  In other words, you need technology and someone on your side to answer your questions.  Why?  Because everyone else is gaining access to these things.  Flying solo is faster and faster putting yourself at a disadvantage.

At the bottom, Choppodong has a quick video tour of our NBA Research Station, Cheatsheets, and Domination Station Optimizer.

Scoring Is Up

Obviously, scoring changes as fantasy sites like Fanduel and Draftkings want to keep players excited and pushing the upward limits of big overall scores.  Bonuses, drop scores, no longer drop scores, and even simply doubling or tripling values has changed some of the proportions by which players accumulate points.  And, by doing so, some categories are contributing more weight to the DFS player’s final tally.  Knowing these systems is paramount to winning.  Consulting experts in how these changes affect future contests is key to you staying ahead of the curve and keeping your edge.

Detailed scoring system charts can always be found within the specific contest details on the appropriate site you are playing.

Morning Glance

Perhaps everyone’s first stop is Vegas. Point spreads tell us where the blowouts might occur.  Sure, we don’t go overboard predicting non-competitive games, but they can still be indicators key studs may have their minutes cut late in games.  If your stud sits out that 4th quarter, you might find yourself paying too much against your salary cap for too little production…an obvious disadvantage.  Pace of play is another area to watch. When a team plays at a faster pace, the players are gaining extra possessions.  More possessions correlate to more fantasy points.  However, it has been suggested moreso for guards and transition positions.  The bigger, slower players might prefer slower games where half-court sets are run more, leading to more rebounds, put backs and even blocks.  Rest days become important to note.  Teams often go through short stretches where they play a lot of games.  The backends of these stretches are worth watching for.  B2B nights, 3 games in 5 nights, and the dreaded 4 games in 6 nights lead coaches to manage playing time or rest knicked up players. But, these rest spots also open up playing time for bench players grabbing those extra minutes they normally don’t.  All of these situations are exploitable to those with research tools and the knowledge to read the games correctly.

Key Statistics

Fpt/$ – Daily fantasy sports are really all about “value.”  As DFS players, we are charged with assembling the most production under a given salary cap.  The more production we can “buy,” the better our chances at winning.  Fpt/$, or value, is simply a metric indicating how underpriced a player might be for tonight’s matchup.

Minutes – There is obviously a direct correlation between the number of minutes a player plays and his opportunity to score points.  Most players average between 25 and 30 minutes per game with bench players obviously averaging less.  Tracking these minute fluctuations can be a great resource to find “value” because DFS industry pricing often trails a spike in playing time, creating an underpriced player for his current role.

Usage – Common NBA statistic roughly determining the percentage of possessions a player is involved, and the stat also correlates well with fantasy production.  It stands to reason a player with a high usage will tend to score more points provided he is getting enough playing time to begin with.

DVP – There are a lot of ways this metric can go.  Defense vs Position is commonly used to determine the strength of an overall matchup.  Some defenses allow points to point guards but guard the center fairly well.  Other teams are the opposite.  It pays to know these matchup situations in a given night so you target the right players in beneficial matchups.

Ownership and Leverage

Thanks to widespread ownership percentage numbers, the industry in 2020 has a decent handle on which players will be highly owned and which might fly a little under the radar.  When we know the players our opponents are likely to play, we can use this information to play along or try and generate leverage in another similarly priced player.  For example, Anthony Davis is projected to be owned by 75% of the field in a particular contest.  If Davis has a poor game, upwards of 3/4 of our opponents will struggle to win our tournament.  Davis may even be the best player on paper that night, but we can apply leverage on our competition by rostering other players with the money we would have spent on him.  When we are right, we are fighting far fewer players for that top prize giving us a easier pathway to victory.

You can see both Fpt/$ and Projected Ownerships on our optimizer, The Domination Station at DFS Army.

No Time?

Maybe you don’t have time to sit all day and stare at numbers.  Well, maybe you do at your day job but don’t want to come home and stare at numbers all over again.  Having access to expert NBA players and their recommendations can really put the afterburners on your research. Complete with discussion notes, game formats to focus on, and even coaching confidence ratings, you can use such a tool to confirm what you are already seeing through your research or was a quick way to assemble competitive lineups when short on time.

The Biggest Factor

BREAKING NEWS!  If you want to play DFS NBA well, you need to prepare yourself for late breaking information.  The NBA is notorious for withholding information until just before the games start.  There are multiple days each week where a key player, in a great matchup, suddenly rests or doesn’t start the game.  The sudden news can have ripple effects across every game on the slate.  Having access to people that quickly determine the new course of action, and share it, can make the difference between your lineup being competitive and being completely dead money.  Twitter is great, but nothing can replace having a source of real time experts scouring those news reports and evaluating the fluctuating situation while they report new plans of attack for you.  The new year has already brought several key changes saving many a DFS player’s night.

Optimizers!  What has changed most since 2015?  The ability to quickly generate a large number of lineups based on your favorite set of projections (your own or someone else’s).  The last five years have seen a massive change in how quickly players can react, adjust, edit, and create 100s of lineups for any sport, any slate, any contest in minutes.  While there are also strategies to exploit those using optimizers, having absolutely no working knowledge of the shark’s biggest tool is like watching television with an antenna while dialing up your mum with a rotary phone.  You are simply at a massive disadvantage.

Take the video tour as Choppodong walks you through the basics of these important tools:  Research Station, Cheatsheets, and Domination Station.

Thanks for reading/watching!  Let’s go crush NBA!!