Hello everyone and welcome to my “Trust The Process” article where we will be taking an in-depth look at the Research Station to help find plays on tonight’s 10-game slate! The goal is to help make a solidified process everyone can follow to crush cash games and tournaments alike. You can find me on Twitter @AUFan30 or in Slack throughout most of the day if you have any questions!
Point Guards
The first thing I do when looking for players to build around is sort by And1 rating. The And1 rating is an all-encompassing metric unique to the DFSArmy that factors in several different columns, including aDVP, Ceiling, Floor, USG%, etc. I like to keep track of the Top 5 players from each position. Take note of these guys and see if they stay high on the list of the other metrics we will look at.
Next, we will sort by Floor for cash games. When we do this, we see that Simmons takes the #1 spot and RWB falls down a peg. We also notice that Fox, Satoransky, and Kyrie all fall out of the Top 5, signifying they will likely be more GPP plays than cash.
For GPP’s we will sort by Ceiling. The Ceiling is the number we can expect these guys to hit 15 – 20% of the time if everything goes right for them. Doing this, we see that Luka takes the top spot, which is to be expected with the most expensive PG on the slate. However, we also notice that Simmons and RWB are still in the Top 3 here, as well as Kyrie and Fox entering back into the Top 5.
We will then sort by FP/Min. The FP/Min column is very useful in telling us who produces when they are on the court. Doing this shows us our Top 5 really doesn’t change much: Doncic, Simmons, Westbrook, Irving, and Kemba.
The next step is to sort by USG%. If we’re looking for what studs to build around, we want a guy who is heavily involved in his offense. Note that we still have Russell Westbrook in every column we’ve looked at so far.
When we have what guys we want to target selected, we then want to look at two columns in particular: Who’s Hot? and Clock Watch. These two columns are very important for GPP plays in particular. Every player goes through a cold stretch as well as hot streaks. When we sort by Ascending order, we’ll see Luka being in the midst of a massive cold streak, having an average value of 3.5X over his last 3 games. He also has an average of 38.6 fantasy points over his last games. Is this the start of a cold streak, a string of tough matchups, or just pure variance? When we look at Clock Watch, we see that Luka has actually been trending downward and playing only 30 minutes per game over his last 3, compared to 34.1 over his last 10! This is something to note when making cash builds.
When we sort this column by Descending order, we find that De’Aaron Fox is having a tremendous 3 game span. Note that we have Fox in our Top 5 And1 plays and Ceiling plays. Fox also is trending upwards in Clock Watch, averaging 37.2 minutes/game over his last 3 games compared to 30.7 over his last 10. With the And1 rating already indicating he’s in a good matchup, Fox maybe someone to target in GPP’s and hope he continues to ride this tremendous hot streak!
Finally, for guards, in particular, we look for guys in Pace Up matchups. This leads to more transition opportunities as well as steal opportunities. For cash games, we don’t necessarily worry too much about the Pace, but it is a very good metric for GPP guards. For guards, we sort by Descending under Pace (+/-).
Shooting Guards and Small Forwards
SG’s and SF’s follow the exact same process as the PG’s do.
Power Forwards
For Power Forwards, we will follow the exact same process for these guys, however we will change one thing. For PF’s, we want a slow-paced matchup. This is due to PF’s getting more steal and block opportunities, as well as rebound opportunities from set offenses. To find these guys, we will go to Pace of Play and sort Pace (+/-) by Ascending order. Again, take note of any PF’s noticed from the other metrics we’ve already looked at.
Centers
Centers follow the exact same process as PF’s.
Tier List
You will want to make a Tier List of the players you’ve found based on your research. Treat this list as an “in case they’re scratched” list. I would always recommend making the highest priced guy the first on your list, therefore if he is scratched then you have nothing to worry about salary-wise with your edits in case he is scratched just before lock. Here is an example of the Tier List I made for last night’s slate. As we can see, Kawhi was my #1 guy last night. Collins was $1,500 cheaper than Kawhi, so I noted that next to his name. Randle was $2,100 cheaper, etc.
Minutes
For cash games, I do make a rule on the RS to include only players who will play over 24 minutes. This is something that needs to be monitored, as the closer we get to lock the RS may not be updated and may require a manual adjustment to a player’s minutes. To add this setting, simply select the down arrow under EDIT Mins under the TODAYS – Projections tab, hover over Number Filters, select Customer Filter.
We will then select “Is greater than or equal to” from the drop-down box and 24 in the input box.
Domination Station Fpts/$ and Ownership %
Once we have our list of guys to target, we want to check out who is popping on the DS. The first section we want to pull up is the Fpts/$. Players hitting value is crucial to taking down any cash contest or tourney and we want to be sure we’re getting the best bang for our buck. We do this by sorting by Fpts/$.
We also want to check out projected ownerships. This is very useful when trying to decide what value to play, or deciding what studs to fade in tournaments. This can also help bring a player to your attention you may not have noticed in the Research Station! The industry is usually very spot on about what players are in good spots, so this ownership tab is very important to watch.
Top Plays for Today!!
These are my personal Top 5 Plays at each position based on the RS numbers. These will likely change when news comes out closer to lock, so make sure you’re in the #nba-breaking-news and #nba-coaches-notes channels and turn notifications on! (Salaries sorted by FD/DK)
PG
- Ben Simmons $8,500/$8,700
- Russell Westbrook $9,200/$9,600
- De’Aaron Fox $8,100/$8,000
- Luka Doncic $11,000/$12,100
- Damian Lillard $8,700/$9,000
SG
- James Harden $11,700/$12,400
- Zach Lavine $8,300/$9,300
- Jimmy Butler $8,800/$8,600
- Buddy Hield $5,800/$6,500
- Josh Richardson $5,700/$6,400
SF
- LeBron James $10,800/$10,400
- Tobias Harris $6,600/$6,900
- Jaylen Brown $6,100/$6,500
- Gordon Hayward $6,400/$6,300
- Will Barton $6,800/$7,000
PF
- Al Horford $6,700/$6,700
- Domantas Sabonis (Questionable, watch the news!) $8,300/$8,300
- Kristaps Porzingis (Questionable, watch the news!) $7,400/$7,400
- Nemanja Bjelica $5,300/$6,300
- Bam Adebayo $8,200/$8,300
C
- Nikola Jokic $9,700/$10,100
- Andre Drummond $10,200/$9,400
- Clint Capela $7,800/$8,100
- Nikola Vucevic $8,900/$8,500
- Hassan Whiteside $9,500/$8,200
Value
- Tomas Satoransky $4,600/$6,000
- Marvin Bagley $5,200/$5,700
- Marcus Smart $5,000/$5,400
- Goran Dragic $4,600/$5,500
- Thomas Bryant $4,400/$5,400
Thank you for reading and as mentioned before, be sure to follow my Twitter @AUFan30 or catch me in Slack with any questions you may have! Be sure to be watching the breaking news channel as always to make sure you don’t miss any exciting value plays and be sure your players are good to go! If you know of anyone interested in signing up with the DFSArmy and winning some money, then be sure to tell them to use my referral link DFS Army VIP or, use code “AU30” for 20% off their VIP monthly membership!