DFS Army – NHL Breakaway Advice and Strategy for FanDuel and DraftKings

Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I am @LowOwnedWR and you can find me out on Twitter. But you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players. If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team! Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.

NHL DFS At A Glance

These are all of stats/rates that I like to look at for teams. I feel as it helps give you an idea of which team is shooting the puck (which will result in goals) and who is giving up the most shots (which will result in goals) and more, let’s break those down.

ODDS: The % chance that the team will win the game. Teams with the highest % to win goalies tend to be chalk and good cash plays.
O/U: The predicted combined score of the teams playing in said matchup. 6.5 will be the highest that you will see and 5.5 will be the lowest.
ITT: Implied Team Total; looking at this can help you tell what the chalk will be, the team with the highest ITT on the slate will be the chalkiest and the lowest will be the lowest owned. In GPPs it can be good to just cut out the top team or two in ITT and build from that.
GF/60: The amount of goals a team has scored per 60 minutes of time on ice.
GA/60: The amount of goals a team has allowed per 60 minutes of time on ice.
xGF/60: Expected Goals For per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a shot in really close from the slot might have a .35 xG (expected goal) value or higher, meaning, that the higher a teams xGF/60 is, the more high quality chances that team is creating. Nothing can be worth 1.0 xG.
xGA/60: Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a team allowed a rebound right outside the crease, that shot is likely to have a .3 xG value or higher, meaning, if a team is allowing rebounds, high danger chances or basically anything that can be a predictor for future goals allowed, you can use xGA/60 to see that.
SF/60: Shots For per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what goalies are potentially going to see a lot of shots (meaning they have a higher ceiling) or what defensemen are going to see a lot of Blocked Shots opportunity.
SA/60: Shots Against per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what teams have been bleeding shots so you can target skaters going against them, also teams with a higher SA/60 goalies tend to have higher ceilings and they also tend to be cheap because they are normally projected to lose.
PP%: Power Play Goals divided by Power Play Attempts. Teams with higher PP% tend to score more goals.
PK%: Measures the rate in which a team prevents their opponents from scoring on the Power Play. Teams with a higher PK% tend to allow less goals.
vMatchup: Averaging up GA/60, xGA/60 and SA/60 and giving it a value. Target teams in the RED as they are giving up the most goals and shots.
vOffense: Averaging up GF/60, xGF/60 and SF/60 and giving it a value. Look at teams with the higher ratings as they are scoring more goals and have players who are shooting the puck.

If you have questions regarding these numbers or this chart, don’t hesitate to ask me on our coaching forums. Just tag me (@LowOwnedWR) and let’s get on the same page.

Quick Read: NHL Cash Game Basics – Get The Fundamentals First

(All stats below from last ten games)

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Dallas Stars

Toronto Maple Leafs: Dallas has been ownership killers all year as their vMatchup rating one of the lowest in the league, meaning, you can get Auston Matthews and John Tavares at an ownership discount tonight. Making them great GPP plays, especially Tavares.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays – John Tavares, Jake Muzzin, Auston Matthews
Cash viable – John Tavares, Jake Muzzin, Auston Matthews
GPP Sleeper – John Tavares

Dallas Stars: People are going to be all over $6500 Seguin on DK tonight, and for fair reason as Toronto has been very shaky on defense and in net recently. Outside of him, I am not looking to stack the Stars with Tampa and Washington on the slate in better spots.

5 star plays – Tyler Seguin
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – Tyler Seguin
GPP Sleeper – Denis Gurianov

Nashville Predators @ Washington Capitals

Nashville Predators: Nashville has not scored over 2 goals in their last 4 games, not trying to fill my line up with Predators tonight.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Kyle Turris

Washington Capitals: I will keep this one short and simple, Ovechkin and or Vrana.

5 star plays – Alex Ovechkin
4 star plays – Jakub Vrana
Cash viable – Alex Ovechkin, Jakub Vrana
GPP Sleeper – none

Arizona Coyotes @ Anaheim Ducks

Arizona Coyotes: Outside of the Red Wings, I am a firm believer this Ducks team is the worst in the league. Taylor Hall tonight is a great GPP play on both sites and Phil Kessel is only $4400 on DK.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Taylor Hall
Cash viable – Taylor Hall
GPP Sleeper – Taylor Hall

Anaheim Ducks: We all did not just wait for All-Star break to be over for us to roster the Ducks 3 days back into hockey.