Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I am @LowOwnedWR and you can find me out on Twitter. But you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players. If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team! Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.
NHL DFS At A Glance
These are all of stats/rates that I like to look at for teams. I feel as it helps give you an idea of which team is shooting the puck (which will result in goals) and who is giving up the most shots (which will result in goals) and more, let’s break those down.
ODDS: The % chance that the team will win the game. Teams with the highest % to win goalies tend to be chalk and good cash plays.
O/U: The predicted combined score of the teams playing in said matchup. 6.5 will be the highest that you will see and 5.5 will be the lowest.
ITT: Implied Team Total; looking at this can help you tell what the chalk will be, the team with the highest ITT on the slate will be the chalkiest and the lowest will be the lowest owned. In GPPs it can be good to just cut out the top team or two in ITT and build from that.
GF/60: The amount of goals a team has scored per 60 minutes of time on ice.
GA/60: The amount of goals a team has allowed per 60 minutes of time on ice.
xGF/60: Expected Goals For per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a shot in really close from the slot might have a .35 xG (expected goal) value or higher, meaning, that the higher a teams xGF/60 is, the more high quality chances that team is creating. Nothing can be worth 1.0 xG.
xGA/60: Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a team allowed a rebound right outside the crease, that shot is likely to have a .3 xG value or higher, meaning, if a team is allowing rebounds, high danger chances or basically anything that can be a predictor for future goals allowed, you can use xGA/60 to see that.
SF/60: Shots For per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what goalies are potentially going to see a lot of shots (meaning they have a higher ceiling) or what defensemen are going to see a lot of Blocked Shots opportunity.
SA/60: Shots Against per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what teams have been bleeding shots so you can target skaters going against them, also teams with a higher SA/60 goalies tend to have higher ceilings and they also tend to be cheap because they are normally projected to lose.
PP%: Power Play Goals divided by Power Play Attempts. Teams with higher PP% tend to score more goals.
PK%: Measures the rate in which a team prevents their opponents from scoring on the Power Play. Teams with a higher PK% tend to allow less goals.
vMatchup: Averaging up GA/60, xGA/60 and SA/60 and giving it a value. Target teams in the RED as they are giving up the most goals and shots.
vOffense: Averaging up GF/60, xGF/60 and SF/60 and giving it a value. Look at teams with the higher ratings as they are scoring more goals and have players who are shooting the puck.
If you have questions regarding these numbers or this chart, don’t hesitate to ask me on our coaching forums. Just tag me (@LowOwnedWR) and let’s get on the same page.
Quick Read: NHL Cash Game Basics – Get The Fundamentals First
(All stats below from last ten games)
Florida Panthers @ Detroit Red Wings
Florida Panthers: The Red Wings are on a B2B and remain one of the worst teams if not the worst in hockey. Fade Florida 1 at your own risk tonight as they are in a great spot and will be highly owned.
5 star plays – Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau
4 star plays – Keith Yandle
Cash viable – Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau
GPP Sleeper –
Detroit Red Wings: Outside of Larkin on DK, I am full fading the Red Wings tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Dylan Larkin
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Dylan Larkin
New Jersey Devils @ Columbus Blue Jackets
New Jersey Devils: Elvis has been on a great straight over his last 3 only allowing 2 goals and posting 2 shut outs. Not looking to roster the Devils on the road in this spot.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Columbus Blue Jackets: 2nd lowest vOffense on the slate, not looking to touch that.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Chicago Blackhawks @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Chicago Blackhawks: This game looks to be very high action and I am looking to get exposure from both sides. Kubalik scored in 5 straight and remains cheap on both sites. Olli Maatta should be able to hit the block bonus on DK and is only $2800 and can hopefully slip onto the score sheet.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Dominik Kubalik, Olli Maatta, Patrick Kane
Cash viable – Dominik Kubalik, Olli Maatta, Patrick Kane
GPP Sleeper – Alex Nylander
Toronto Maple Leafs: Another slate another time I am only looking at Barrie, Matthews and Tavares.
5 star plays – Auston Matthews, Tyson Barrie
4 star plays – John Tavares
Cash viable – Auston Matthews, Tyson Barrie, John Tavares
GPP Sleeper – Zach Hyman
Vegas Golden Knights @ Montreal Canadiens
Vegas Golden Knights: Pacioretty’s price took a dip and I am buying that, I love how he plays and he is consistently shooting the puck. It is him or bust for me from the Knights tonight.
5 star plays – Max Pacioretty
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – Max Pacioretty
GPP Sleeper – Max Pacioretty
Montreal Canadiens: Joel Armia returned from injury and remains under 5k on both sites, he is my Montreal exposure for this slate.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Joel Armia
Cash viable – Joel Armia
GPP Sleeper – Joel Armia
Los Angeles Kings @ Philadelphia Flyers
Los Angeles Kings: A lot of value for the Kings tonight on DK and I am buying into it as I do think Brian Elliot is a shaky goal tender. I am playing both Carter and Doughty in my cash line tonight (DK), to me, Doughty is now too cheap for his potential at $4400 and Carter continually puts the puck on the net.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Jeff Carter, Drew Doughty
Cash viable – Jeff Carter, Drew Doughty
GPP Sleeper – Adrian Kempe
Philadelphia Flyers: Not looking to Philly tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Buffalo Sabres @ Nashville Predators
Buffalo Sabres: Sabres boast the worst vOffense rating on the slate, even with how shaky Nashville has been I am not looking to roster Buffalo tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Nashville Predators: After the let down against the Ducks, I am not really looking to dive back into them in the next good matchup. It is Filip Forsberg or bust for me tonight from the Predators as Josi price is just too high right now.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Filip Forsberg
Cash viable – Filip Forsberg
GPP Sleeper – Filip Forsberg
Dallas Stars @ Minnesota Wild
Dallas Stars: This game has a 5.0 over under, that is a complete fade all around.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Minnesota Wild: Imagine rostering the Wild in a 5.0 total game, could not be me.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
San Jose Sharks @ Vancouver Canucks
San Jose Sharks: There is nothing exciting about rostering the Sharks right now, and I like excitement. Fade.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Vancouver Canucks: Outside of stat sheet god Tyler Myers, I am not looking to roster any Canucks tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Tyler Myers
Cash viable – Tyler Myers
GPP Sleeper – none
Goalies:
Elvis Merzlikins (FD): Great value at home against the Devils, on top of posting 2 shutouts in his last 3 games, lock him in.
Elvis Merzlikins (DK): The value is not amazing on DK but everything else from my previous analysis stands, in GPPs I would consider Corey Crawford at $6900 as his value and upside is amazing.