Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I am @LowOwnedWR and you can find me out on Twitter. But you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players. If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team! Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.
NHL DFS At A Glance
These are all of stats/rates that I like to look at for teams. I feel as it helps give you an idea of which team is shooting the puck (which will result in goals) and who is giving up the most shots (which will result in goals) and more, let’s break those down.
ODDS: The % chance that the team will win the game. Teams with the highest % to win goalies tend to be chalk and good cash plays.
O/U: The predicted combined score of the teams playing in said matchup. 6.5 will be the highest that you will see and 5.5 will be the lowest.
ITT: Implied Team Total; looking at this can help you tell what the chalk will be, the team with the highest ITT on the slate will be the chalkiest and the lowest will be the lowest owned. In GPPs it can be good to just cut out the top team or two in ITT and build from that.
GF/60: The amount of goals a team has scored per 60 minutes of time on ice.
GA/60: The amount of goals a team has allowed per 60 minutes of time on ice.
xGF/60: Expected Goals For per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a shot in really close from the slot might have a .35 xG (expected goal) value or higher, meaning, that the higher a teams xGF/60 is, the more high quality chances that team is creating. Nothing can be worth 1.0 xG.
xGA/60: Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a team allowed a rebound right outside the crease, that shot is likely to have a .3 xG value or higher, meaning, if a team is allowing rebounds, high danger chances or basically anything that can be a predictor for future goals allowed, you can use xGA/60 to see that.
SF/60: Shots For per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what goalies are potentially going to see a lot of shots (meaning they have a higher ceiling) or what defensemen are going to see a lot of Blocked Shots opportunity.
SA/60: Shots Against per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what teams have been bleeding shots so you can target skaters going against them, also teams with a higher SA/60 goalies tend to have higher ceilings and they also tend to be cheap because they are normally projected to lose.
PP%: Power Play Goals divided by Power Play Attempts. Teams with higher PP% tend to score more goals.
PK%: Measures the rate in which a team prevents their opponents from scoring on the Power Play. Teams with a higher PK% tend to allow less goals.
vMatchup: Averaging up GA/60, xGA/60 and SA/60 and giving it a value. Target teams in the RED as they are giving up the most goals and shots.
vOffense: Averaging up GF/60, xGF/60 and SF/60 and giving it a value. Look at teams with the higher ratings as they are scoring more goals and have players who are shooting the puck.
If you have questions regarding these numbers or this chart, don’t hesitate to ask me on our coaching forums. Just tag me (@LowOwnedWR) and let’s get on the same page.
Quick Read: NHL Cash Game Basics – Get The Fundamentals First
(All stats below from last ten games)
New Jersey Devils @ Washington Capitals
New Jersey Devils: Only Buffalo is implied less goals on this slate, outside of Blake Coleman I am not touching the Devils.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Blake Coleman
Cash viable – Blake Coleman
GPP Sleeper – none
Washington Capitals: Implied 4.3 goals which is highest on the slate, this is where the chalk with be tonight, most will go to Ovechkin and Vrana to get their exposure which is fair because they are the best plays on the Capitals. For GPPs players like Oshie and Carlson should see lower ownership.
5 star plays – Alex Ovechkin
4 star plays – Jakub Vrana, TJ Oshie, John Carlson
Cash viable – Alex Ovechkin, TJ Oshie, Jakub Vrana
GPP Sleeper – Lars Eller
New York Rangers @ New York Islanders
New York Rangers: The Islanders are the best team at slowing down the game in the league (tied with Dallas) so I am not looking to the Rangers tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
New York Islanders: I know they just went off for 8 goals against the Red Wings but I am hoping that will give them a bump in ownership tonight as I am completely fading this game.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Boston Bruins
Pittsburgh Penguins: Another game that features two teams who are very good at playing D. Sid is only $7100 on DK which is a little cheap for his upside so I do like him tonight in GPPs as a one off, but outside of that I am not looking to roster the Penguins.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Sidney Crosby
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Jared McCann
Boston Bruins: Having one of the worst vOffense ratings on the slate and only scoring 1.97 GF/60 over their last 10 games. No Bruins tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Montreal Canadiens @ Philadelphia Flyers
Montreal Canadiens: Only 1.53 GF/60 over their last 10 games, while playing on the road, just instant fade the Canadiens right now.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Philadelphia Flyers: As banged up as Montreal is, the Flyers just do not over enough in X value as a team to roster, I do not like paying full price for each players ceiling from a stack.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Carolina Hurricanes @ Columbus Blue Jackets
Carolina Hurricanes: Columbus has been the worst team in the league on offense over the past 10 games meaning the Hurricanes who are the kings are of shooting the puck should have no problem working them tonight. Teuvo and Svechnikov are my favorite plays from the Hurricanes tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Teuvo Teravainen, Andrei Svechnikov, Dougie Hamilton
Cash viable – Teuvo Teravainen, Dougie Hamilton
GPP Sleeper – none
Columbus Blue Jackets: As mentioned, worst team on offense in the league right now, fade.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Los Angeles Kings @ Florida Panthers
Los Angeles Kings: 2nd lowest GF/60 on the slate at 1.53, not rostering any Kings tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Florida Panthers: Huberdeau has been one of the hottest players in the league but because he is in Florida and Panarin has been going off it has gotten no coverage, this is a great matchup for him and FLA1 as the Kings are a bottom 5 team in the league.
5 star plays – Jonathan Huberdeau
4 star plays – Aleksander Barkov
Cash viable – Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov
GPP Sleeper – Frank Vatrano
Calgary Flames @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Calgary Flames: As weak as Toronto has been on defense lately, I cannot roster the Flames. This team just does not have great upside every given night it seems. I am not stacking them unless they are at home against the Senators and even then I would not feel good about it.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Toronto Maple Leafs: I am keeping the Leafs exposure to the studs tonight as the value guys have been sporadic. It is Matthews, Tavares and Barrie or bust.
5 star plays – Auston Matthews
4 star plays – John Tavares, Tyson Barrie
Cash viable – Auston Matthews, Tyson Barrie, John Tavares
GPP Sleeper – none
Vegas Golden Knights @ Ottawa Senators
Vegas Golden Knights: Not that they were performing poorly but it shall be interesting the see what the Knights do under DeBoer. I am just sticking to the two skaters who have been firing the puck on net while on ice in Pacioretty and Marchessault.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Max Pacioretty, Jonathan Marchessault
Cash viable – Jonathan Marchessault
GPP Sleeper – none
Ottawa Senators: Not looking to roster the Senators tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Anaheim Ducks @ Nashville Predators
Anaheim Ducks: If it was not for goaltending I believe that the Ducks would be just as bad as the Red Wings are, meaning, I am not rostering them.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Nashville Predators: My favorite play on the slate tonight is Filip Forsberg, at only $5800 on DK and should finally start to see a studs share of ice time, that is just a tremendous value. If you are feeling like a big man, no one will be on Josi tonight in this great spot as people will be spending their salary on Ovechkin, MacKinnon and Matthews. He should be sub 3% tonight.
5 star plays – Filip Forsberg
4 star plays – Roman Josi
Cash viable – Filip Forsberg
GPP Sleeper – Roman Josi
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Minnesota Wild
Tampa Bay Lightning: Another team that has been on fire that I will be sticking with the studs tonight, those studs being Kucherov, Stamkos and Hedman, of course. I do think that there will be decent leverage playing Tampa stacks tonight even though it is a great spot. Most players will be looking to Matthews, MacKinnon and Ovechkin as mentioned, and you have to pay a pretty penny to get Tampa studs. Hoping they all come in at sub 8%.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov
Cash viable – Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos
GPP Sleeper – Yanni Gourde
Minnesota Wild: Nothing can seem to bend Tampa right now and I do not think the Wild will start doing the bending.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Buffalo Sabres @ Dallas Stars
Buffalo Sabres: This game looks to be low action, I am fully fading it outside of Bishop.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Dallas Stars: Fade.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
San Jose Sharks @ Colorado Avalanche
San Jose Sharks: With so many good teams on the slate it is hard to roster players from a team who just is not that good right now.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Colorado Avalanche: Nathan MacKinnon at home against the Sharks is a cash LOCK, do not over think it. Colorado has been streaky as of late but they have the potential to be the best team in the league, so when they turn it on again, it will be dangerous.
5 star plays – Nathan MacKinnon
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – Nathan MacKinnon
GPP Sleeper – Valeri Nichuskin
Arizona Coyotes @ Vancouver Canucks
Arizona Coyotes: Another one of those games where there is just better spots on the slate and I do not find the need to touch it.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Vancouver Canucks: Outside of Tyler Myers, nothing I am looking to roster here.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Tyler Myers
Cash viable – Tyler Myers
GPP Sleeper – none
Goalies:
Ilya Samsonov (FD): Not much to explain here really, Capitals are two goal favorites and Samsonov is only $8200.
Pekka Rinne/Juuse Saros (DK): This team has too much talent not to pull it together eventually and even though I am not a fan of Hynes this team needed a change. Anaheim is one of the worst teams in the league, Nashville should be able to pull off this W.