Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I am @LowOwnedWR and you can find me out on Twitter. But you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players. If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team! Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.
NHL DFS At A Glance
These are all of stats/rates that I like to look at for teams. I feel as it helps give you an idea of which team is shooting the puck (which will result in goals) and who is giving up the most shots (which will result in goals) and more, let’s break those down.
ODDS: The % chance that the team will win the game. Teams with the highest % to win goalies tend to be chalk and good cash plays.
O/U: The predicted combined score of the teams playing in said matchup. 6.5 will be the highest that you will see and 5.5 will be the lowest.
ITT: Implied Team Total; looking at this can help you tell what the chalk will be, the team with the highest ITT on the slate will be the chalkiest and the lowest will be the lowest owned. In GPPs it can be good to just cut out the top team or two in ITT and build from that.
GF/60: The amount of goals a team has scored per 60 minutes of time on ice.
GA/60: The amount of goals a team has allowed per 60 minutes of time on ice.
xGF/60: Expected Goals For per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a shot in really close from the slot might have a .35 xG (expected goal) value or higher, meaning, that the higher a teams xGF/60 is, the more high quality chances that team is creating. Nothing can be worth 1.0 xG.
xGA/60: Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a team allowed a rebound right outside the crease, that shot is likely to have a .3 xG value or higher, meaning, if a team is allowing rebounds, high danger chances or basically anything that can be a predictor for future goals allowed, you can use xGA/60 to see that.
SF/60: Shots For per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what goalies are potentially going to see a lot of shots (meaning they have a higher ceiling) or what defensemen are going to see a lot of Blocked Shots opportunity.
SA/60: Shots Against per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what teams have been bleeding shots so you can target skaters going against them, also teams with a higher SA/60 goalies tend to have higher ceilings and they also tend to be cheap because they are normally projected to lose.
PP%: Power Play Goals divided by Power Play Attempts. Teams with higher PP% tend to score more goals.
PK%: Measures the rate in which a team prevents their opponents from scoring on the Power Play. Teams with a higher PK% tend to allow less goals.
vMatchup: Averaging up GA/60, xGA/60 and SA/60 and giving it a value. Target teams in the RED as they are giving up the most goals and shots
vOffense: Averaging up GF/60, xGF/60 and SF/60 and giving it a value. Look at teams with the higher ratings as they are scoring more goals and have players who are shooting the puck.
If you have questions regarding these numbers or this chart, don’t hesitate to ask me on our coaching forums. Just tag me (@LowOwnedWR) and let’s get on the same page.
(ALL STATS FROM LAST 10 GAMES)
Los Angeles Kings @ Carolina Hurricanes
Odds: CAR -250, 6.0 o/u
Los Angeles Kings: Even being on a back to back the Hurricanes are still a -250 favorite, with there being a lot of options I would just not look the Kings way tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Carolina Hurricanes: The Hurricanes have the 2nd highest SF/60 on the slate and LA’s goaltending tandem has not been good this year. Also, the Kings have only scored 1.67 GF/60 over their last 10 games, lowest on the slate, so I do not mind James Reimer on FD where he is only $7600.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Dougie Hamilton, Sebastian Aho
Cash viable – Martin Necas (Value)
GPP Sleeper – Martin Necas (Value)
Boston Bruins @ New York Islanders
Odds: BOS -113, 5.5 o/u
Boston Bruins: This game really is not one to be targeting as these are two of the best defensive teams in the league. However you can get Boston 1 at low ownership which is a rarity, but outside of them I would not be looking for exposure.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Brad Marchand
New York Islanders: The Islanders are not even that fun to roster against the Senators and the Bruins might be the best defensive team in the league. Full Fade.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Montreal Canadiens @ Ottawa Senators
Odds: MTL -148, 6.5 o/u
Montreal Canadiens: Sadly, Brendan Gallagher was experiencing headaches and will likely be out tonight against Ottawa, as I would love to get a big stack going against the Senators I think I am just looking for a value piece here. Nick Suzuki is on PP1 and has at least 2 or more SOG a game over his last 5.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Nick Suzuki, Shea Weber
Cash viable – Nick Suzuki, Shea Weber
GPP Sleeper – Phillip Danault
Ottawa Senators: Montreal has not been great by any means as of late and will be missing Gallagher again more than likely but on the second leg of a back to back I am just full fading the Senators.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
New Jersey Devils @ Washington Capitals
Odds: WSH -253, 6.0 o/u
New Jersey Devils: A lot of better options than looking to the Devils on the road against the Capitals.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Blake Coleman (Value)
Cash viable – Blake Coleman (Value)
GPP Sleeper – Blake Coleman (Value)
Washington Capitals: Going with the Capitals in cash tonight is a must, but you still have to pick the right ones. I like going for a PP1 stack when I stack the Capitals. Backstrom just does not shoot the puck enough to consider rostering, Carlson at $7200 on DK is just more than I am willing to pay. To cut to it my favorite options are Oshie and Ovechkin, Ovechkin is a lock in cash and with others more than likely going Backstrom hopefully we can get Oshie at low ownership.
5 star plays – Alex Ovechkin
4 star plays – TJ Oshie, Evgeny Kuznetsov
Cash viable – Alex Ovechkin, TJ Oshie
GPP Sleeper – Jakub Vrana
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia Flyers
Odds: TB -136, 6.5 o/u
Tampa Bay Lightning: No one is scoring as many goals and allowing as little as Tampa right now, in other words they are playing like the best team in hockey again. Philadelphia has a 3.12 GA/60 which is the 3rd worst on the slate, so we are going to need to get some Tampa Bay exposure.
5 star plays – Nikita Kucherov
4 star plays – Steven Stamkos
Cash viable – Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos
GPP Sleeper – none
Philadelphia Flyers: I am not rostering anyone against the hottest team in hockey.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
New York Rangers @ St. Louis Blues
Odds: STL -200, 6.0 o/u
New York Rangers: The Rangers have been producing pretty well on offense as of late but still have been their shaky selfs on defense, making for some fun hockey games. St. Louis basically offers the worst vMatchup on the slate but are only killing penalties at a rate of just over 66% which is awful. Rangers will be very low owned in GPPs.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider
St. Louis Blues: As mentioned the Rangers are one of the worst if not the worst team in the league on defense and the Blues offer a lot of value with players like O’Reilly, Schenn and Schwartz that are in a great spot and cheap enough to help let you pay up for another stud.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Ryan O’Reilly, Alex Piertrangelo, Jaden Schwartz, Brayden Schenn
Cash viable – Ryan O’Reilly, Alex Piertrangelo, Jaden Schwartz, Brayden Schenn
GPP Sleeper – Alex Piertrangelo
Anaheim Ducks @ Chicago Blackhawks
Odds: CHI -150, 5.5 o/u
Anaheim Ducks: Both of these teams present the same problem when considering rostering a player against them, they are both awful on defense but they have goalies who can bail them out night in and night out. I am not taking any chances on Anaheim tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Chicago Blackhawks: Patrick Kane at $7600 on DK is intriguing but outside of that I do not think I am touching this game. I really miss you, low priced Connor Murphy.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Patrick Kane
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Patrick Kane
Edmonton Oilers @ Calgary Flames
Odds: CGY -159, 6.0 o/u
Edmonton Oilers: Both of these teams are playing awful on offense right now and there are some good spots on this slate and I am not wasting my roster spots on this game.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Calgary Flames: As mentioned, full fade of this game.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Vegas Golden Knights
Odds: VGK -200, 5.5 o/u
Columbus Blue Jackets: The Jackets have the lowest ITT on the slate and are playing on the road in Vegas, nothing from that makes me want to roster them.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Vegas Golden Knights: No team is shooting the puck more than the Knights right now, sadly, the man doing that the most, Pacioretty, just got a $1000 price bump on DK and my 2nd favorite play Shea Theodore got priced up $700, so getting any value here is tough.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Max Pacioretty, Shea Theodore
Cash viable – Max Pacioretty
GPP Sleeper – Paul Stastny, Alex Tuch (Value)
Dallas Stars @ San Jose Sharks
Odds: DAL -122, 5.5 o/u
Dallas Stars: Neither of these teams are implied more than 3 goals so it is hard to lick my chops over rostering either team.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
San Jose Sharks: Evander Kane and Erik Karlsson remain too cheap for their upside on DK, outside of them I am not looking to roster any Sharks.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Erik Karlsson, Evander Kane
Cash viable – Erik Karlsson
GPP Sleeper – Evander Kane
Quick Read: NHL Cash Game Basics – Get The Fundamentals First
Goalies:
James Reimer (FD): At only $7600 on FD and the Hurricanes are favored by a little bit over a goal at the moment, he is a cash lock on FanDuel.
Andrei Vasilevskiy (DK): Only $7700 on DK and is playing a Flyers team that is not exactly firing at all cylinders. Also not to mention the fact that Andrei has won each of his last 7 starts.