The idea behind my process is simple, “more lineups are better than fewer lineups”. Lower entry fee contests generally have weaker competition and I believe that, over time, with more lineups, we can reduce our variance and actually see very consistent gains while still having opportunities for massive upside nights.
As you can see from my results from last year, “cash games” were not my cash game results were not great. Early on in 2019 I decided to go with a predominantly GPP approach to DFS as I’ve never been a great “cash game grinder” and that decision helped me have the best DFS year of my career.
I like to use 401k investing as an example. You would never put all of your retirement savings on the back of 1 stock, or 1 lineup. You would be much better served to spread out your risk and diversify your portfolio as much as possible. For example, If we’re playing $20 dollars, it’s better to play 20 lineups in the $1.00 dollar 20 max contest rather than playing one entry in a $20 single entry tourney.
Contest Selection is Key
Before we get started, I want you to download the RotoGrinders Chrome Browser Extensions for Fanduel and Draftkings. These extensions will allow you to see the Margain and Payout Percentages for every contest on both sites. Pay attention to the type of Tournaments you’re entering. Most of these tourneys have awful payout structures these days, but, some are much worse than others.
Bankroll Management and Contest Selection are even more important than picking the “right players” each day. Kevin aka “The Geek” has a great article discussing this even further so make sure you check out the Geek’s Bankroll Management and Contest Selection Article here.
Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s get into the process I use each day.
My MME Process from start to finish
I wrote a more elaborate MME Process Article <— click here, where I explain more and show screenshots of the DS. For each day, I’ll post the cliff notes version below but make sure you read over the other article as well so you understand the process.
Step 1 – Sort the RS or DS by highest-rated AND1 rating
Step 2 – By using the ADORE 😍 feature I Increase the projection for the Top5 players at each Position by 15%
Step 3 – DS Settings
— 150 lineups
— 3 unique players
— 70% global max exposure on all players
— 5% randomness
— Tournament Mode (not optimal mode)
Step 4 – Run and Review
Step 5 – Make final edits to your pool
How am I attacking Today’s Slate?
Today we have a solid 8 game Friday slate. We should have plenty of value to allow us to get up to the top-dollar studs like James Harden and Russell Westbrook should we chose to go that route. These large slates are great for MME tournaments because if chalk presents itself later in the day, it is usually pretty easy to get off the chalk and find other players in very good spots that will be much lower owned.
The chalk I’m seeing on Fanduel is as follows.
1) Ricky Rubio – priced at only 5.7k vs the Spurs. He’s had 1 monster game in his last dozen games or so, but, 5.7k still feels too cheap here.
2) Jaylen Brown – with Jayson Tatum out he should get a nice bump in usage
3) James Harden – he is priced at 10.8k vs the T’Wolves and he is the top spend up option on the slate. He’s easy to fit on Fanduel so his ownership will be very high.
4) Dewayne Dedmon – will be chalk with Marvin Bagley and Richaun Holmes out for the Kings. The Matchup vs the Bulls is as good as it gets for Centers so I’m expecting him to reach ridiculous ownership levels.
The first thing that stands out to me today on Fanduel is the Center position. With Dewayne Dedmon being priced at only $3,900 he’s going to be the defacto option on this slate. This means that the majority of people are going to go cheap at Center and pay up in other spots, most likely fitting James Harden and Kawhi Leonard into their lineups rather easily. Another thing to remember is that this is likely the optimal build that most optimizers will spit out, given how extreme the value is on Dedmon today.
So how do we get different from the field today?
Today it’s honestly very easy to differentiate ourselves, and it’s really starting at the Center position. The matchup for Dewayne Dedmon is as good as it gets for Centers, but if we’re going to try and be different and take down 1st place (not just min-cash) a GPP tonight we can be very different by simply going underweight on Dedmon, or, fading him completely.
There are other Centers in smash spots tonight that are going to be much MUCH lower owned than Dedmon. Also, try to think of it like this, if we use another player besides Dedmon, we don’t really care too much about that 1 v 1 ownership difference. For example, let’s say we get Montrezl Harrell at 1/3 of the ownership, that’s great. What we really gain however is roster construction uniqueness from everyone else on the night. Since Harrell costs $6,000 and Demon is $2,100 less expensive at just $3,900, the rest of our lineup is naturally going to be different and unique.
These are the types of things I think about every day when I’m constructing my 150 MME or 20 max builds.
Some of my favorite Pivots today
I like the idea of playing Russell Westbrook instead of James Harden. Since most optimizers are going to roll with 2 mid-range point guards like Rubio and Morris, using Westbrook can get us double leverage by not using Harden and paying up at point guard where others are paying down.
Karl Anthony Towns over Dewayne Dedmon for the reasons I listed above, but I used Montrezl Harrell in the example. Using Towns over Dedmon greatly changes our roster construction and most people and optimizers will not go this route because it’s not the optimal build on tonight’s slight. In GPP’s we have to remember, we’re not trying to build Optimal Builds, we’re trying to beat 70,000 other entries.
Wrap it up
Alex “Awesemo” Baker (the #1 DFS player in the world) had a great quote in a recent article he wrote.
Hopefully, this article helps you understand how I try to think about my Tournament Builds. One thing I need you to understand is that I’m not advocating for fading all of the chalk players simply because they are going to be high owned. What I want you to do however, each night, is to think about each situation and look through the player pool to see if there are other ways we can go. By nature, I don’t want to play the chalk if I don’t have to, but, that doesn’t mean that I will fade it just for the sake of fading it. There has to be a place for me to go when I fade.
Hopefully that all makes sense. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me in the VIP Chat at any time. I’ll leave you with the Top3 And1 players below at each position. Be sure to check on these closer to lock as well, as these change when news breaks later in the day.
AND 1 Top 3’s today
The AND 1 rating was developed by Ben Jammin @xBenJamminx and is apart of our NBA Research Station.The rating is an all-encompassing metric that will lead you to the best plays on each slate each day. One of my favorite things to do is use the ADORE 😍 feature in the Domination Station on all of these players so that I’m sure to get heavy exposure to them across my lineups.
James Harden leads the slate today with a 24.5 AND1 Rating in his matchups against the T’Wolves. Check out the Rest of the Top 3 at each position below. Mix in the Free Squares with these guys below when you build your lineup this evening.
PG – Russell Westbrook
Derrick Rose
Ricky Rubio
SG – James Harden
Andrew Wiggins
Devin Booker
SF – Danilo Gallinari
Pascal Siakam
Will Barton
PF – LaMarcus Aldridge
Kawhi Leonard
Robert Covington
C – Karl-Anthony Towns
Andre Drummond
Nikola Jokic