The idea behind my process is simple, “more lineups are better than fewer lineups”. Lower entry fee contests generally have weaker competition and I believe that, over time, with more lineups, we can reduce our variance and actually see very consistent gains while still having opportunities for massive upside nights.
As you can see from my results from last year, “cash games” were not my cash game results were not great. Early on in 2019 I decided to go with a predominantly GPP approach to DFS as I’ve never been a great “cash game grinder” and that decision helped me have the best DFS year of my career.
I like to use 401k investing as an example. You would never put all of your retirement savings on the back of 1 stock, or 1 lineup. You would be much better served to spread out your risk and diversify your portfolio as much as possible. For example, If we’re playing $20 dollars, it’s better to play 20 lineups in the $1.00 dollar 20 max contest rather than playing one entry in a $20 single entry tourney.
Contest Selection is Key
Before we get started, I want you to download the RotoGrinders Chrome Browser Extensions for Fanduel and Draftkings. These extensions will allow you to see the Margain and Payout Percentages for every contest on both sites. Pay attention to the type of Tournaments you’re entering. Most of these tourneys have awful payout structures these days, but, some are much worse than others.
Bankroll Management and Contest Selection are even more important than picking the “right players” each day. Kevin aka “The Geek” has a great article discussing this even further so make sure you check out the Geek’s Bankroll Management and Contest Selection Article here.
Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s get into the process I use each day.
My MME Process from start to finish
I wrote a more elaborate MME Process Article <— click here, where I explain more and show screenshots of the DS. For each day, I’ll post the cliff notes version below but make sure you read over the other article as well so you understand the process.
Step 1 – Sort the RS or DS by highest-rated AND1 rating
Step 2 – By using the ADORE 😍 feature I Increase the projection for the Top5 players at each Position by 15%
Step 3 – DS Settings
— 150 lineups
— 3 unique players
— 70% global max exposure on all players
— 5% randomness
— Tournament Mode (not optimal mode)
Step 4 – Run and Review
Step 5 – Make final edits to your pool
How am I attacking Today’s Slate?
Today we have a large 12 game Wednesday slate and there will be lots of studs to choose from on a slate of this size. These slates are great for MME tournaments because if chalk presents itself later in the day, it is usually pretty easy to get off the chalk and find other players in very good spots that will be much lower owned.
Currently, we have Marvin Bagley, Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell, Tobias Harris, and Donovan Mitchell as the highest projected owned players on the slate. All of them are chalky for a reason, they are all in very solid spots and should be cash game cores tonight. However, let’s see if we can make a few pivots to other players in solid matchups for our Large Field tournament lineups that will help us separate ourselves from the pack.
Marvin Bagley $6,500 / $5,100
On Fanduel it’s going to be tough to get away from Bagley priced at just $5,100 tonight vs the Pistons. In cash I think you just eat this chalk as it’s damn good chalk at just $5,100. There are a few easy pivots we can make at Power Forward however, that won’t be much of a downgrade to our roster. Fellow Kings PF Nemanja Bjelica is only $5,400 on Fanduel and he’s actually got a similar ceiling compared to Bagley and he should come in at around 1/4 the ownership tonight.
Michael Porter Jr should be on your radar in this range as well, and we currently have him around 1/3 of the projected ownership of Bagley. He has scored 39 or more fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 games and gets a solid uptempo matchup against the Rockets tonight. He should get more minutes with Harris, Millsap, Plumlee, and Murray dealing with injuries as well.
Montrezl Harrell $6,800 / $5,900
Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Patrick Beverley are all likely going to be OUT tonight vs the Hawks. Harrell and Wiliams should do pretty much everything for this offense and you should without a doubt load up on them in your cash games. In GPP’s however, we can likely find some other ways to go to make ourselves a lot different from the field today.
Let’s start with Harrell, who plays Center on Fanduel. The easy pivot in the same price range is Myles Turner who is only $5,600 and has a solid matchup against the Suns. If you want to get totally different from everyone else, you can pay up at Center while everyone else is paying down into the mid range for Harrell. This decision to change your roster construction at Center would lead to your lineup being unique the rest of the way. Karl Anthony Towns has the best matchup on the board at Center tonight vs the Chicago Bulls. He’s the 3rd highest priced Center on the slate and most optimizers will not force him in without some sort of manipulation (something a lot of people don’t do).
Lou Williams $7,300 / $6,300
At shooting guard, we have a similar situation with Lou Williams who is going to be extremely high owned (for good reason) tonight. The Matchup is as good as it gets vs the Hawks, so I’m not telling you to completely fade Lou Williams in tourneys. What I am telling you, however, is that we can get unique with our construction and really leap past the field should Sweet Lou have just a “good game” and not a slate breaking game tonight. In the same price range we can pivot to someone like Buddy Heild vs the Pistons who are awful against Guards.
Wrap it up
Hopefully, this article helps you understand how I try to think about my Tournament Builds. One thing I need you to understand is that I’m not advocating for fading all of the players I listed, simply because they are going to be high owned. What I want you to do however, each night, is to think about each situation and look through the player pool to see if there are other ways we can go. By nature, I don’t want to play the chalk if I don’t have to, but, that doesn’t mean that I will fade it just for the sake of fading it. There has to be a place for me to go when I fade.
Hopefully that all makes sense. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me in the VIP Chat at any time. I’ll leave you with the Top3 And1 players below at each position. Be sure to check on these closer to lock as well, as these change when news breaks later in the day.
AND 1 Top 3’s today
The AND 1 rating was developed by Ben Jammin @xBenJamminx and is apart of our NBA Research Station.The rating is an all-encompassing metric that will lead you to the best plays on each slate each day. One of my favorite things to do is use the ADORE 😍 feature in the Domination Station on all of these players so that I’m sure to get heavy exposure to them across my lineups.
Donovan Mitchell leads the slate today with a 21.5 AND1 Rating in his matchups against the Warriors. Check out the Rest of the Top 3 at each position below. Mix in the Free Squares with these guys below when you build your lineup this evening.
PG – Kemba Walker
Russell Westbrook
Trae Young
SG – Donovan Mitchell
Buddy Hield
Zach LaVine
SF – Jaylen Brown
LeBron James
Brandon Ingram
PF – Bam Adebayo
Jayson Tatum
LaMarcus Aldridge
C – Montrezl Harrell
Karl-Anthony Towns
Deandre Ayton