BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN+ 24 Location – Raleigh, North Carolina
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in North Carolina. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $125k being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw a handful of lineups chasing that $25k. I will probably focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests and if I play any higher stake contests those will be the ones I enter. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double-ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Nate Landwehr $8,300 vs Herbert Burns $7,900
Nate Landwehr
Age: 31
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: SSF Submission Academy
From: Tennessee
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 48
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -125
Nate Landwehr enters his UFC debut the reigning M-1 Global Champion. Landwehr is fun to watch inside & outside of the cage & is easily marketable. Landwehr is a dog, constantly walking his opponents down looking for the kill. He isn’t very technical but improving a bit fight by fight. He has gotten better at keeping his hands up & staying lighter on his feet. Landwehr will look to use low kicks & front kicks to the body at distance, but really does his best work in close range. Landwehr loves pocket fighting & dirty boxing. He is super durable & can keep a silly pace. He doesn’t fatigue and has massive short-range power. He will throw big hooks & uppercuts. He loads up on every shot & when he hurts fighters he swarms. Landwehr also has nasty knees to the head. Landwehr slowly breaks opponents down & ultimately takes them out. He can struggle to cut the cage off & is a slow starter. He usually has to be taken down or hit a couple times to wake up. He can struggle with faster fighters who can pot shot him. He will walk into shots & has been dropped in multiple fights. Landwehr is extremely durable though & recovers quickly. He knows when he needs to get urgent & will fight for your money. Landwehr has 7 KO/TKO’s in 13 wins & has never been finished by strikes.
Nate Landwehr isn’t an offensive wrestler. His defensive wrestling is improving, but not the greatest. His aggressiveness allows opponents to get in on his hips & he can give up singles & doubles. Landwehr will look to sprawl, stuff the head, or attack front chokes. When he can lock in a front choke, he will really go for it & force opponents to go to sleep or go to their backs. When he gets top position, he is devastating with ground & pound. He throws with bad intentions & takes fighters out. He will move to dominant positions like the mount or the back & finish the job. Landwehr doesn’t look for submissions & is only looking to do damage with blows. When he does get put on his back he can get held down. He will try to explode up, or belly down into a takedown attempt of his own. Landwehr has been fighting high level wrestlers, but Herbert Burns will likely be his most dangerous opponent with submissions. Landwehr has to mind his Ps & Qs if taken down. He has no submissions and was submitted one time via rear naked choke. Landwehr fights one way & that’s with reckless abandon. He will come in shape, bring a high pace, pressure forward & look for the kill shot. If he gets a fighter hurt, he usually is going to get the finish and unless they put him out, he won’t stop coming.
Herbert Burns
Age: 31
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 74”
Gym: Hard Knocks 365
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 90
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +105
Herbert Burns, the brother of Gilbert Burns, will be making his UFC debut after a victory on the DWCS. Herbert is a different fighter than Gilbert. He doesn’t possess that same explosiveness or power but has more speed. Burns likes to work behind his jab, one-twos & a hard body shot. His striking is still very raw overall. He will overextend on his punches & is very hittable in exchanges. He can throw naked kicks & doesn’t move his head very much. Burns doesn’t have great defense when he’s hurt either. Burns will flop to his back when he feels in danger which makes him hard to finish. Burns can be very low volume & while he comes forward, he won’t let go with much. I feel Landwehr will have a lot of success if he can force Burns to fight on the back foot. Herbert doesn’t possess big power in his shots & has never finished anyone with strikes. Burns has never been finished himself either.
Herbert Burns is an elite Jiu-Jitsu competitor & knows where his bread is buttered. He likes to almost immediately close the distance & try to get in the clinch or shoot in on double legs. Burns has a pretty quick level change to go with nice double leg takedowns. He also will look for trips & foot sweeps in the clinch. Burns has no problem pulling guard either & is very comfortable on the mat. When Burns gets top position, he is excellent at quickly taking the back. He will lock in the body triangle & has great control. He will flatten opponents out & lock in the rear naked choke. Burns gets a lot of submissions off his back also. He will go inverted attacking the legs & has great triangle armbars. Burns can be losing the entire fight & then pull a submission out of his hat quickly. Burns has 7 submissions in his career. Burns flopping to his back & his limited striking can look bad to the judges. He is only 2-2 in decisions. He’s won three straight matches via decision though & is riding a high. If Burns can execute in round one, he has a shot at getting a quick submission.
Herbert is the brother of Gilbert Burns and he has great BJJ like his brother. He doesn’t have the striking or power that his brother has though, so I think his only shot here is to get the fight to the mat. Landwehr was the M1 champion in Russia and he will be looking to strike here. His advantage on the feet might be just as big as Burns’ on the ground, but every fight starts on the feet and Burns isn’t a great wrestler. He could pull guard or grab a leg and get a submission, but I don’t have confidence that he can get the fight to the mat, so I will go with Landwehr as my pick.
I think this is a good GPP fight to target this week. We have a -170 FDGTD line and either guy could win in the first round. If that happens, they are going to be close to locks on the optimal lineup. I wouldn’t touch this fight in cash games personally because I don’t have a strong feeling in either side, so I don’t want to take chances there. I just want to target this fight as a whole and if Landwehr gets a KO then I’ll have some exposure there, and if Burns gets the sub I will have some shares of him as well. This is a fight I will look to get in half or more of my lineups and I will be pretty evenly split on exposure. If I had to choose just one, I would probably say Burns just because he is cheaper, but if they were evenly priced then I would have said Landwehr. I just don’t see Burns landing many takedowns so with him we will be relying on the sub. Landwehr could win with a KO and score highly in a dominant decision.
Winner – Nate Landwehr via 2nd round (T)KO
Tony Gravely $8,200 vs Brett Johns $8,000
Tony Gravely
Age: 28
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 70”
Gym: Team MMA & Fitness Academy
From: Virginia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 52
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -120
Tony Gravely will be making his UFC debut in a pretty high-profile spot. He is getting the opportunity to fight a borderline top 15 opponent. Gravely is very experienced at 19-5 & has fought strong competition. He is riding a seven-fight win streak having finished all seven opponents. All 5 of Gravely’s losses have come against very good fighters. Tony Gravely is a former division one college wrestler, & a smart fighter. On the feet, Gravely’s striking is all to get it to the mat. He is very explosive & a strong athlete. Gravely is very fast & really relies on that on the feet. He has nice straight punch & hook combinations. Gravely will feint level changes to create openings for his blitz combos & uppercuts. Gravely will throw good body kicks also but isn’t much of a kicker. Defensively, Gravely leaves a lot to be desired. He is very upright when he throws punches & looks hittable in exchanges. He can overextend or throw wild punches that put him out of position. He is very composed & doesn’t get rattled. He will be a hard guy to finish with strikes, but I do think someone who can stuff his takedowns will give him issues. Gravely has 6 KO/TKO’s, but mostly due to ground & pound, but does have power in his hands. Gravely has never been finished by strikes.
Tony Gravely shines in the grappling realm. He has relentless cardio & chain wrestling skills. Gravely likes to establish his wrestling very quickly in fights. He has lighting fast single & double leg entries & gets explosive slams. Gravely is also good at using the entry to get ahold of opponents & pushing them to the cage if he feels he isn’t going to finish the takedown. He is very physically strong & gets nice body locks there also. In top position, Gravely is very active and has great passing ability. He will move to dominant positions, chip away, make opponents work & eventually drown them. Gravely has pretty heavy ground & pound from half guard or mount. He is good at getting to the back & locking in chokes. Gravely can put himself in some bad positions on the ground. When he shoots in on takedowns, sometimes he can leave his head inside & get caught in guillotines. He can get a bit wild with his ground & pound also & give up armbar opportunities. Gravely usually is athletic enough to slam his way out of the position or just find a way out, but he has been submitted 4 times. Tony Gravely has excellent takedown defense. He is very hard to hold down also & an elite scrambler. He did get caught in a guillotine in a scramble fest in his most recent loss to Patrick Mix. Mix looks like a potential world champion though & Gravely had his moments in the fight. Overall, Tony Gravely has a great ground game & his pace breaks a lot of guys. He is a welcomed addition to the division & should be able to make some noise.
Brett Johns
Age: 27
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 70”
Gym: Chris Rees Academy
From: Wales
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +100
Brett Johns will be making his anticipated return after a long layoff. Johns hasn’t fought since October of 2018 where he recorded a loss to Pedro Munhoz. Johns has faltered after starting his career 15-0. He has lost two consecutive matches & was exposed as not being at that top level. This is a huge fight for him career wise & he needs to get the win. Brett Johns is a warrior & won’t give anybody an inch. He is a pressure fighter on the feet. Johns will throw some low kicks & front kicks to the body but is predominately a puncher. He likes to get inside & sit down on heavy hooks, overhands & uppercuts. He has a nice straight-right hand he uses to close distance and will throw straight-left hook combinations with bad intentions. He likes to control distance by shooting the straight-right hand to the body and head. He has an excellent flying knee. Johns is a dog who likes to sit down in the pocket, and trade big shots. He doesn’t have good defense really, he just uses a high guard & his offense as defense. Johns took a beating in his last match, but still showed his toughness. He made it to the final bell after being hurt several times. Johns has slow feet & loads up on his punches. He has a square stance & really got his legs & body beat up in his last match. Johns can get stuck on the outside & pot shot. Johns is still very tough & has never been finished. Johns only has two KO/TKO’s in his career & isn’t a big power puncher.
Brett Johns is a very strong grappler. He is a black belt in both judo & Jiu-Jitsu. Johns has a very nice double leg with great timing on it. Johns will shoot singles also but doesn’t finish them as often. In the clinch, Brett Johns has excellent trips & throws. His hips are very heavy when opponents shoot in on him, and he has pretty strong takedown defense. That being said Aljamain Sterling was able to take him down multiple times & dominate in the grappling realm. When Brett Johns can get top position, he is heavy & has solid ground & pound. Johns is more about position & staying on top more than looking for the finish. Johns will look to take the back & get rear naked chokes, he has a calf slicer in the UFC, but just has 5 career submissions. Johns struggled with Sterling’s wrestling when he set it up with strikes first. He seemed a step behind & not athletic enough to compete. Johns is very hard to hold down & has a solid guard. He will throw up triangles & armbars off his back & is a good scrambler. He has great cardio & heart.
Gravely looks pretty decent but this is his UFC debut and Johns is pretty good himself. With Johns coming off his first two losses of his career, back to back, I think there may be some recency bias in this line. I do think Gravely is the better striker here and he is a good wrestler, I just think Johns could put him on his back and I would say Johns is the better grappler of the two. I have been burned too many times lately betting on debut fighters, so I will lean with the UFC vet in Johns here to pick up a close decision win. No bet either way for me though.
This is another fight I have interest in both sides of. I like that they are the mid-range priced fight and both sides have grappling upside. I think Gravely is more likely to get a finish on the feet, and I think he has more takedown upside as well. I think Johns has takedown upside himself and he is more likely to get a win on the mat. I will say Johns is my preferred play and I will have a bit more of him. I would guess I have 25-30% Johns here and 20-25% Gravely. I haven’t made lineups yet, but I can see me being somewhere in that range. I will try to get away from this fight in cash games, but I am not against either side, I would be more likely to have Johns myself though.
Winner – Brett Johns via Split Decision
Sara McMann $8,400 vs Lina Lansberg $7,800
Sara McMann
Age: 39
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 66”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: South Carolina
UFC Record: 5-5
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 11 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -150
Sara McMann is making her return to MMA after a short hiatus. McMann hasn’t fought since February 2018, and at 39 years old it will be interesting to see how she looks here. Sara has lost two consecutive fights and hasn’t earned a victory in nearly 3 years. Sara McMann’s striking is a bit open and wild when she throws, but she has big power in her overhand and in her leg kicks. McMann really relies on closing the distance with explosive blitzes & her right hand. She can come up short with her punches a lot but uses it to fall into the clinch. McMann doesn’t use feints or fakes & can be very obvious and deliberate. When she gets tired, the blitzes come slower & she gets much more hittable. She doesn’t like getting hit and struggles with faster, straight punches. When she throws, she’s very tight & can have her eyes closed. McMann has only been finished once by strikes versus Amanda Nunes. She has just one TKO victory.
Sara McMann is a former silver medalist wrestling champion. She relies on that predominately to win her fights. McMann has excellent clinch takedowns & really rag dolls opponents. She also has a very nice blast double leg. She will use the blast double to run opponents to the fence & finish with the single leg. On top, McMann has improved with her control & Jiu-Jitsu, but her ground & pound is still not very good. She doesn’t throw devastating shots and really lacks power. She is good at getting to dominant positions like side control or the mount & throwing a lot of punches and maintaining control. She has gotten better at getting arm triangle submissions. She does have five career submissions. McMann can get very tired in fights & when she gets takedowns, hang out in opponent’s guards and make mistakes. She has gotten submitted back to back times and three times overall. McMann will quit in fights and has a weak mentality. She is much more of an athlete than a fighter. Her cardio is questionable & now coming off a layoff and a baby that’s a big question mark. She needs to come in here, get a big win & remind fighters that she is someone to be reckoned with.
Lina Lansberg
Age: 37
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 65.5”
Gym: Redline TC
From: Sweden
UFC Record: 4-3
Fight Matrix: 8
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +130
Lina Lansberg is in the midst of a surprising career resurgence winning 3 of her last four matches at 37 years old. Lansberg has won as a massive underdog in her last two fights. She knocked off highly touted prospect Macy Chiasson last time out, and now is looking to earn her most high-profile win to date here. Lansberg is not a great striker at range, she is a bit slow and clunky. She has a decent jab and a good straight-right hand. She likes to use the overhand right to close the distance and get in the clinch. She will throw the occasional body kick and can go up to the head with it, but her kicks are not extremely dangerous. She will throw some nice elbows. Lansberg does a good job of catching her opponents kicks and getting a takedown or getting in the clinch because of it. She has a good chin and is willing to take a lot of damage and keep coming forward. She has a lot of scar tissue and has been opened up in her recent fights. She has been finished 3 times via TKO.
Lina Lansberg’s last two performances in the grappling realm have been the best of her career. Against Tonya Evinger, Lansberg was able to get several takedowns against the cage & was dominant on the ground. Lansberg has always been known to have solid clinch control against the cage. She didn’t have much offense previously from that position but would land short elbows & punches. Against Evinger, she implemented takedowns & ground & pound. She was able to land big shots from half guard, and ultimately move to mount where she landed some big elbows. In her most recent fight with Macy Chiasson, she was able to get clinch takedowns. She controlled on top & won the last two rounds easily with positioning & control. Lansberg is clearly improving. In the past, Lansberg has had trouble off her back. Her takedown defense is questionable & she allows opponents to transition to dominant positions very quickly. Aspen Ladd was able to mount her & finish her very quickly once the fight hit the mat. In this fight, she definitely needs to avoid being put on her back. Lansberg has no submissions & has never been subbed.
Lansberg is probably the better striker here but McMann is the better wrestler and grappler. I think McMann is going to have a lot of early success with her wrestling and she could lock up a submission. I would feel less confident the later this fight goes but I think she will do enough to win rounds 1 and 2 to get her hand raised.
It is hard to trust McMann here, but I do like this matchup for her and that makes me want to roster her. I think she is playable in all formats, I just don’t know how heavy I will be on her. I could see her dominating round 1 and then if things don’t go her way after that she quits. I just think she is a much better grappler and can get multiple takedowns each round or an early sub. I like her salary at $8.4k and I think if she wins this fight she will pay off that salary. Lansberg is going to be a fade for me but I wouldn’t talk you off her in GPPs if you want to take a low owned shot and hope McMann quits late. I just don’t think I will be there with 10-20 or less lineups.
Winner – Sara McMann via Unanimous Decision
Montel Jackson $9,400 vs Felipe Colares $6,800
Montel Jackson
Age: 27
Height: 5’10
Weight: 135
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: Pura Vida MMA
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 20
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -700
Montel Jackson enters this spot the biggest betting favorite on the card as he takes on Felipe Colares. Jackson has bounced back after losing his UFC debut with back to back victories. He has looked great, and with a win here probably will get pushed towards a top fifteen opponent. Jackson is blazing fast and has nasty kicks, knees and straight punches. He is a southpaw and has a nasty jab and straight-left hand. He does a great job of hand fighting with his front hand and then coming with his straight-left hand. He is very accurate with his punches and has big power. He has great distance control and does a great job of sliding in and out of range and countering with long range attacks. He has great front knees to the body and the head. He also will attack with lightning fast front kicks to the body and head. He has a nice round kick to the head and body, and his kicks come fast and without telegraph. He is at his best when he is coming forward and stalking his opponents to the fence, in space he is accurate and extremely dangerous, but can get out volumed. He has very good defense and rarely gets hit clean. He has a calmness about him and is always very aware and in the moment in the cage. He doesn’t get tired and is able to be just as effective with his striking in round 1 as round 3. He has big power with 6 KO/TKO’s in 9 wins & dropped Kelleher before submitting him in his last match. He has never been finished.
Jackson is a great wrestler, he was training to wrestle in the Olympics before transitioning to MMA. He does a great job of getting in the clinch, circling to the back and getting slam takedowns. He also has very good high crotch slams. He has unbelievable grip strength and is able to control the wrist in the clinch. He was able to control Ricky Simon’s wrist in space with one hand while punching with the other which I have never seen before in a fight. He has nasty knees & elbows in the clinch. In top position, his length gives fighters big problems. He has the ability to posture easier & rain down big G&P as well as having long limbs for chokes. He has nice front chokes & guillotines. He got a nice darce on Brian Kelleher. He has very good takedown defense and is hard to takedown and hold down. He does a great job of shucking off attempts, and limp legging out of single legs. He has very good hips and is extremely long making him super hard to takedown in the clinch. He can get taken down with well-timed double legs and body locks and was grinded out by one of the best fighters IMO in the 135 lb division in Ricky Simon. He was able to reverse several takedowns of Simon and end up on top as well as earning takedowns himself and defending a majority of them. Jackson is very explosive and able to change position very quickly on top. Jackson’s wrist control makes it very hard for his opponents to get damage off on the mat. Jackson should look to mix it up, wrestle & strike and out technique Colares. Jackson has one career submission.
Felipe Colares
Age: 25
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 69.5”
Gym: Team Nogueira
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 188
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +500
Felipe Colares will be looking to earn back to back upset victories as he takes on Jackson. Colares entered the octagon a pretty sizeable underdog to Domingo Pilarte but was able to grind out a split decision victory. Colares is getting an opportunity to make a big jump in the division with a win here. Colares is a young, aggressive grappler. His striking does not look good. He is stiff with his movements & flat footed. He does have a decent jab, he will double & triple up on to try to get inside. He will throw one-twos and likes to throw straights in combination to back opponents towards the cage. He will get crazy if he’s losing & try to force a war by winging shots. His defense isn’t good. He’s very open to hit & not very fast. He likes to throw a lot of kicks. He will throw round kicks to all parts of the body. He will even attempt spinning & jumping kicks. He doesn’t set the kicks up well & can be countered or taken down off them. Colares gets very emotional in the cage & will just swing wildly. I’m not sure If his striking is UFC level. He doesn’t have great power with just two KO/TKO’s. He’s never been finished.
Felipe Colares is a strong fighter & decent wrestler. He likes to use his punches to crash into the clinch, where he usually has a strength advantage. He will hit trips, throws and has nice takedowns against the cage. He has nice doubles & looks to have a lot of strength. He picked his last opponent up over his head & slammed him. Colares from top position isn’t great. He will try to pressure pass to dominant positions, but he struggles to pass opponent’s guards. He can be caught in pretty deep submissions but gets out well. Against lesser opponents, he likes to take the back & go for rear naked chokes. Colares has 5 submissions.
I am real high on Jackson as a prospect and I think he could contend for the title one day. He should be the better fighter everywhere in this match and he is my most confident pick on the card. I like him to get a finish here, so I would probably take his ITD line if I were to bet this fight, but I think he could cruise to a 30-27 decision as well.
Jackson is probably my favorite play on the card, the only issue is affording him. I like him anywhere this fight goes, and I think he has one of the highest ceilings on the card. I am also confident he gets the win, so I will try to lock him into my cash lineup. He does have a -105 ITD line and if he doesn’t get that finish then I am not confident he pays off his salary here, so he isn’t a must have. I do want to be overweight on him if I can be but if you are just making a few lineups and you can’t afford him, I wouldn’t worry about it too much. I will be fading Colares here and I would even think about fading him if I was making 150 lineups.
Winner – Montel Jackson via 1st round (T)KO
Lucie Pudilova $8,700 vs Justine Kish $7,500
Lucie Pudilova
Age: 25
Height: 5’8
Weight: 125
Reach: 67.5”
Gym: KBC Pribram
From: Czech Republic
UFC Record: 2-4
Fight Matrix: 44
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: -165
Lucie Pudilova will be looking to get off the downfall & badly needs a victory after three consecutive losses. Pudilova is getting a step down in competition after three fights against very high-level fighters. This will be the second fight at Flyweight for Pudilova. Pudilova has a nasty jab & is a long, powerful striker. She will throw hard one-twos down the middle. She has a nice left hook & a good overhand right. She will throw a jab, overhand right combination. She keeps heavy forward pressure & wears opponents out with a steady stream of volume. She will throw occasional leg & body kicks. She will throw front kicks to the body as well. She has nice spinning back kicks to the body & head. She throws nice front kicks to the body. She loves to fight & has no problem going to war. When she gets hit, she likes to immediately try and get it back. Her hand speed is elite & she had great accuracy on her right straight. She is the vastly superior striker & if she can stay composed, keep the distance with her punches, it is her fight to lose. She has 2 KO/TKO’s in her career & has never been finished by strikes.
Pudilova is a solid grappler, and really addressing that part of her game. She was exploited a bit in her last fight, but she can be offensive with her grappling in this matchup. She is nasty in the clinch & very active, she will throw hard elbows & knees. In her last match, she landed a nasty clinch elbow that cut open & rocked Shevchenko. She has very good takedown defense. She has a heavy sprawl and will make opponents pay for takedown attempts with hard elbows. She also can reverse position getting on top where she has aggressive G&P. On social media she trains a lot of wrestling & this may be the fight she pulls it out. Off her back she can get controlled, and held down, but she has good defense and will attack with a triangle. She needs to mix it up in this match. Pudilova has 2 submissions and has never been submitted. She has phenomenal cardio and pushes a hard pace.
Justine Kish
Age: 31
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 65”
Gym: Gym-O
From: North Carolina
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 2 Years
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +145
Justine Kish is making her return after two years away from the sport. She has recovered from multiple knee injuries & finally getting back to business in her home state of North Carolina. Kish has lost two consecutive fights & needs to come in with urgency here. Kish does have some impressive wins over fighters such as Randa Markos, Nina Ansaroff and Ashley Yoder, but those were all a very long time ago. The last time Kish earned a victory was December 2016. Justine Kish is a marauder. She goes forward, is extremely durable & goes to war. Kish doesn’t have much finesse when it comes to her game. She doesn’t throw many fakes or feints and relies on her chin to eat shots and walk opponents down. Kish will throw some nice jabs & one-twos. She has heavy low kicks, and a really nice left hook. Kish will trade hooks in the pocket. She will throw some nice body & head kicks. Kish is constantly walking opponents down & tries to break them with forward pressure. She doesn’t have big power & zero KO’s. She has never been finished by strikes & is extremely durable.
Justine Kish is very physical & will look to work in the clinch. She has a strong Muay Thai plum & will land heavy knees to the body and head. She will dirty box with uppercuts & hooks. Kish has nice body locks & trip takedowns. She has a good single & double leg against the cage. In top position, she throws heavy ground & pound and looks to finish the fight. Kish will look for arm triangles & kimuras. In her match with Felice Herrig, she was taken down with well-timed double legs. She was dominated when Felice was in top position but showed great heart. She is always moving on bottom trying to stand up. She will belly down & look to stand up. Kish was able to survive a deep choke in that match & has never been submitted. She has two submissions herself.
I think this fight should be a bit closer to even. Pudilova is the better boxer and the more aggressive striker. I think Kish has more tools and maybe more power as well, and I think she can win this fight if she looks to grapple. She doesn’t look to grapple enough though, so I have no confidence that she will do that, and I would slightly favor Pudilova on the feet. This is a dog or pass fight for me on the betting line though, so I will take Kish and hope she looks for takedowns.
For me, it is likely going to be just Kish or fade with 10-20 lineups. I don’t see Pudilova getting a finish here, so it will likely just be whatever significant strikes she can sell FightMetric on and a possible win bonus. I think Kish is the one more likely to grapple here and if she does then I like her chances of the upset here and she could possibly score well. I won’t go too heavy on Kish here, but I will look to be overweight on her. I would think 25% or so will do that for me and that is where I could see my ownership on her being. I think she is a solid cash game option as well because I think she will have 3 rounds to work with and at her price we can take a ~30-point L. If you are confident in Pudilova then I think she is a fine cash option as well, but she will likely be a full fade for me.
Winner – Justine Kish via Split Decision
Arnold Allen $9,200 vs Nik Lentz $7,000
Arnold Allen
Age: 26
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: Tristar Gym
From: England
UFC Record: 6-0
Fight Matrix: 31
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -300
Arnold Allen at just 25 years old is one of the brightest prospects on the UFC’s roster. Allen holds an undefeated UFC record of 6-0 recently defeating former title challenger Gilbert Melendez. Allen was set to get a step up in competition & face top fifteen opponent Josh Emmett, but with Emmett getting injured he will have to settle for tough veteran Nik Lentz. Arnold Allen is a plus athlete & evolving as a striker. He has very fast feet, moves in & out quickly, and is getting much better with his distance control. Allen is a southpaw with a really educated left hand. He has a solid jab, but really works off the straight-left to the body & head. He has a nasty left hook to the body. Allen will throw straight-left, right hook combinations, and really sits down on the right hook. He will double & triple up on the punch when he backs opponents towards the cage. Allen has great hand speed, and in exchanges he stays technical & usually can make opponents miss & make them pay. He will flurry with combinations to back opponents up. He likes to slip & counter with a right hook or a straight-left hand. Allen showed off a nasty lead leg, calf kick in his last match. He has a nice front kick to the body. Allen has a nice rear leg, high kick. Allen likes to throw spinning heel kicks to the head directly followed by spinning heel kicks to the body. Allen loves to explode at the end of rounds & try to take his opponents out. I feel some fighters relax when they hear that ten second clapper & that’s how Allen has gotten multiple late round finishes. Allen’s defense is good on the feet because he stays very composed. He plays the range game & is fast and sharp. Allen is powerful & has five KO/TKO finishes, but definitely has more of a point fighting style. He has never been finished by strikes & doesn’t get hit much on the feet.
Arnold Allen’s grappling is constantly improving. Allen holds victories over some high-level grapplers already in the UFC and is fighting another in Lentz. Allen is very athletic & explosive. Due to that he has heavy hips, is hard to hold down & great in scrambles. Allen showed strength in the clinch in his last match. He was able to get inside & dig double underhooks whenever Melendez got inside. He will bully opponents to the mat with throws & has very nice trips. He will throw heavy knees to the head & body, and nice spinning attacks off the break. Allen even got a double leg takedown on the former college wrestler. Allen isn’t a great top game player & isn’t active shooting takedowns. Arnold Allen has good takedown defense. He has fast hips & can pull them back easily when he sees the shots coming. He has a nice sprawl and will use that to circle to the back & take top positions himself. Allen can struggle with fighters who can blend their wrestling with the striking. He was taken down six times by Mads Burnell. Allen eventually caught a guillotine in a scramble. Allen is excellent at landing strikes in those transition periods from grappling to striking. He will attack with guillotines to counter takedowns. Off his back, he has a very strong lower body, and is able to use butterfly hooks to stand up or sweep. He was able to sweep, control and mount a great wrestler in Makwan Amirkhani. Allen has elite cardio & can push hard for three rounds. In this fight, I think he will be looking to avoid the takedown and keep it standing. Allen has four submissions & has never been submitted.
Nik Lentz
Age: 35
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 68”
Gym: Hard Knocks 365
From: Minnesota
UFC Record: 14-7-1-1
Fight Matrix: 30 (LW)
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +250
Nik Lentz will be making the drop down to 145 lbs for the first time since 2015 to take on Arnold Allen. Lentz had a solid 5-3 run at LW, but never could get over the hump. Lentz has spent the large majority of his career at 155 but does hold a 4-2 UFC record at FW. Lentz has struggled even making 155 lbs so I’m curious to see how he looks on the scales. This will be Lentz’s 24th UFC fight, but he actually still looks pretty good. Lentz has been known more as a grappler over his career & I see him trying to get this fight to the ground. Lentz is a bit of a plodder, but he is aggressive. He will switch stances & is improving with his trickiness. He has nice, heavy low kicks. He will throw jab, right hooks, and he has good body kicks. He will counter jabs with overhand lefts or rights and has some ok pop in that shot. He likes to come over the top with hooks and then try to use that to get in the clinch & dirty box. Lentz has a solid left kick to the body. He showed off a nice head kick, dropping & ultimately finishing Maynard with it. He is also good at catching kicks himself & taking opponents down or striking off it. He is slow though & there to be hit as he enters range. He also can be backed up & give up the center. He doesn’t move his head well & really took a lot of damage in his last fight with Charles Oliveira. He is tough & has a good chin only being finished three times in his career.
Nik Lentz is a grinder, and grappling is his bread & butter. He does a good job of using punches to close the distance & or just taking shots to get inside and get in the clinch. He likes to get the single collar clinch & push opponents to the cage. He has good knees to the body & head and great elbows. He was able to control Scott Holtzman against the cage enough to steal a decision in their fight. He has good double legs as well as body lock takedowns & on top he has great ground & pound. He will throw nasty elbows, good punches & slow cooks a lot of his opponents with a steady stream of shots. He is very opportunistic with submissions & has great guillotines especially. He has 11 career submissions & has only been submitted twice in his career. In his last match, he did get dominated in the grappling realm, but was able to show his ability to survive on bottom vs an elite black belt. Lentz has decent cardio is extremely gritty & will be there all night unless you take him out. He does get tired in the third round of high paced fights & can survive to the finish.
I think Allen is the better striker and grappler here. Nik can definitely keep this fight close though, so I don’t know that I would lay -285 here, but I do think Allen is the more dangerous fighter and should be the one winning most striking and grappling exchanges and I think he wins a 30-27 or 29-28 unanimous decision.
I like Allen to win this fight, but I don’t see him scoring highly and he has never had more than 86 DK points. He just isn’t active enough for me to want to roster, so I would rather take shots on these other high-priced guys with higher ceilings. He is a fade for me and I doubt I get to Lentz either. If you like Lentz to get the upset then he will be a great play, but I think he would be best as a cash game punt because he probably has 3-rounds to work with. I just think he gets out classed and loses possibly every round. This is my least favorite fight to target on the card.
Winner – Arnold Allen via Unanimous Decision
Bevon Lewis $9,300 vs Dequan Townsend $6,900
Bevon Lewis
Age: 28
Height: 6’3
Weight: 185
Reach: 79”
Gym: Jackson Wink MMA
From: Georgia
UFC Record: 0-2
Fight Matrix: 181
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -450
Bevon Lewis has his back against the wall here. The Jackson-Wink prospect who was once highly touted has started his UFC career 0-2. Lewis definitely needs to turn it around here. Lewis is a talented guy. He has a long reach & a good frame for the division. Bevon Lewis is diverse as a striker, he has nice oblique & round kicks to the legs. Lewis has a nice jab and a very good one-two. He has a nice straight & overhand right. Lewis has a nice left hook, straight-right hand. He will fake level changes & come up with uppercuts. Lewis will throw nice front kicks to the body & head. He has a dangerous rear leg, round kick to the head. Lewis throws a ton of volume & is at his best when he’s going forward being the hammer. Opponents who can walk him down & counter can rattle him. He can get into a defensive shell as well as get wild with his shots. In his match with Uriah Hall, he overextended on a right hand, got countered & put to sleep. Lewis doesn’t really move his head & is open to being hit in exchanges. I also don’t think he has the greatest chin. He struggled with low kicks in his last match, and he doesn’t check them. Lewis is a plus athlete with power & has to be respected. He hurts fighters most often in the clinch, but Lewis has 3 KO/TKO’s in 6 wins. His KO loss at the hands of Uriah Hall is the lone one on his record.
Bevon Lewis is not a wrestler but has dangerous attacks in the clinch. He will push opponents to the cage, hand fight & come over the top with elbows. He has nice knees he will bring to the body & up to the head. He will dig double underhooks & control against the cage. Lewis has gotten some double leg takedowns against the cage against lower level competition. In his match with Darren Stewart, he attempted a couple takedowns, but wasn’t even close to completing them. He doesn’t look very comfortable on the mat. He likes to stand up inside of opponent’s guards & throw punches from there but isn’t looking to pass or submit. He has zero takedown attempts in his first two UFC fights. His opponent, Dequan Townsend, has a glaring hole with his takedown defense, so maybe we will see Lewis try to exploit that. Bevon Lewis does have pretty solid takedown defense himself. He will counter the attempts with front chokes, but I haven’t seen him tested against a high-level wrestler. In this matchup he won’t have much to worry about in that aspect. Lewis is still very young in his career & has shown gas tank problems. He can sometimes push the pedal too hard early & tire late. He still needs to find that happy medium of fighting aggressive but staying composed.
Dequan Townsend
Age: 33
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 79”
Gym: Murcielago MMA
From: Michigan
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 157
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +360
Dequan Townsend is surprisingly getting another UFC fight. He entered his UFC debut on short notice and was knocked out in an unsuccessful outing vs Dalcha Champion. Since then he got himself in hot water for failing a drug test for cocaine & fentanyl. After a stint in a drug rehab facility, he has reduced his suspension & is once again jumping in on short notice. If Townsend really has gotten clean & changed his lifestyle maybe we will see a much better version of him here. Dequan Townsend is a big, athletic guy with knockout power. He throws heavy, low kicks which I feel he needs to use in this match. Townsend has a long reach & will throw decent jabs & straight punches. Townsend has power, and when he lands he will come forward with straight & hook punch combinations. He closes distance pretty quickly, but also recklessly. Townsend will wing overhands that are dangerous. Townsend likes to pull counter & is comfortable using head movement to evade punches. Townsend has a dangerous high kick he has knocked opponents out with. He has nice flying knees, jump kicks & punches. Townsend is very durable & hard to finish. His defense is not very good. He will back up in straight lines and doesn’t control the center well at all. His footwork moving backwards can be very awkward. Townsend got knocked out with a straight punch combination leaning back while being too close to the cage. Townsend still has only been KO’d one time in his career which was his last match. Townsend is still dangerous with 12 career KO/TKO’s.
Dequan Townsend’s grappling is very low level. His takedown defense is very questionable & he has little to no Jiu-Jitsu. He backs himself to the cage where he’s easy to get in on. He also can close distance very reckless & give up easy takedowns. Townsend does have a solid guillotine he uses to counter takedowns. When fighters get Townsend on his back, his guard is easy to pass. Fighters can move to side control & mount him easily. Townsend will stay relaxed & isn’t the easiest fighter to submit. Townsend has been submitted just one time via heel hook. Townsend relies on explosion to just time a moment to sweep or stand up. Townsend has swept & taken the back of low level opponents on the regional scene but doesn’t have good control. Townsend has just three career submissions.
I think Bevon Lewis is the better fighter everywhere here. However, he took his 1st loss two fights ago by knockout, and in his last fight it looked like he was afraid of getting knocked out again and he didn’t want to engage at all. I think he can definitely win with takedowns and GNP, but Townsend is active off his back and I could see him stealing the fight by being the more active fighter. Lewis should win this fight more than he loses but there is no way I would bet him at -450 so I will pick Townsend to pull off a big upset here.
This will be a fight I target because I think both sides could end up on the optimal. I think Lewis has the higher ceiling and if he fights to his potential he could smash Townsend here. I do want some shots on him if that is the case, but I think he might be somewhat popular, so I likely will be underweight. Townsend will probably one of the lowest owned fighters on the card and I think he could win a low volume striking decision, or possibly get a KO. He could get a decision win where he only scores ~50-points, but since nobody will be on him I want to get some shares and get some leverage in case he can get an upset KO. Zero confidence in this pick but I am going to take the dog and hope he comes through.
Winner – Dequan Townsend via Split Decision
Jamahal Hill $8,500 vs Darko Stosic $7,700
Jamahal Hill
Age: 28
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 79”
Gym: Black Lion Academy
From: Michigan
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 90
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -125
Jamahal Hill will be making his UFC debut after a successful outing on the DWCS. Hill is still young in his career at 6-0. He has fought average competition at best, but he does hold a victory over Dequan Townsend. Hill is still raw but improving quickly. He has a lot of heart & great cardio. Hill is a forward pressure fighter on the feet. He has a sideways stance & likes to slide in & out of range while using his lead hand to maintain distance. Hill will hand fight & use the jab a lot to get range for the straight-right hand. Hill will attack the body with the jab & straight-right as well. Hill likes to force opponents backs to the fence, feint & pull counter. He holds his hands low but is good at slipping & ripping. He has a nice counter left hook. Hill can get clipped with big shots due to holding his hands low & was dropped by Dequan Townsend. He is a bit of a slow starter. Hill has nice kicks also. He will attack all parts of the body with the kicks & mixes them into combinations. His stance leaves him susceptible to low kicks himself. When fighters pressure Hill, he looks very flustered. His defense is not good & he will back himself up towards the cage & have nowhere to go. Hill will reach for the clinch or shoot a takedown rather than strike while moving backwards usually. Hill isn’t a one-shot power guy, and definitely more about volume. He has two career KO/TKO’s. Hill is very tough & has gotten hurt badly and recovered quickly. He needs to improve his defense though, or it’s only a matter of time before he gets knocked out.
Jamahal Hill doesn’t look like a great grappler. In his last match, he did have success with some knees in the clinch. He hurt his opponent & then finished him off with ground & pound. He will shoot double legs at space and likes to get in the clinch & press fighters against the cage. He will chain wrestle from there & move from doubles to singles to body locks. In top position, Jamahal Hill doesn’t have the greatest control. Fighters scramble back up to their feet pretty easily on him. Hill isn’t the most proficient wrestler overall & I definitely don’t see him being able to takedown Stosic. I believe he should try to avoid grappling & has to be ready to defend takedowns. Hill’s takedown defense hasn’t been tested much in his MMA career, but it looks a bit questionable. Off his back, he will work for armbars, triangles & omaplatas. He doesn’t look great off his back though. Hill has zero submissions in his career nor has he been submitted.
Darko Stosic
Age: 27
Height: 6’0
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Red Star
From: Serbia
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 108
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +105
Darko Stosic is fighting for his UFC career here. He started his tenure with a victory, but has lost back to back matches, and had underwhelming performances. Darko is a big, powerful guy. Stosic has powerful leg kicks. Stosic has big power in his right hand. He will counter with straight & overhand rights. He will try to counter over the top with left hooks. Stosic will explode into left hooks & combinations, but not nearly enough. He backs up far too much & is extremely low volume. Stosic loads up all his shots & while he’s explosive it’s easier to avoid. He really lands his best shots in the clinches & off the breaks on the feet. If he showed aggression more often he would be a much better fighter, but I am not sure he has the cardio for that. Stosic has a good chin & will eat shots & continue to come forward. He did get dropped by a jab against Clark, but it was more of a flash knock down. He has been finished once in his career by TKO. Stosic has 8 KO/TKO’s, & if he lands one of those haymakers on an opponent he will put them out.
Stosic is the better grappler in this matchup. He is solid in the clinch. He gets double underhooks, attacks with hard elbows & explosive combinations off the break. He will open up with heavy straights & hooks. He has strong takedown defense & will use it to land knees to the body & press opponents to the cage. He got a big, explosive double leg slam in his match with former college wrestler Devin Clark. Stosic has good top pressure & big ground & pound elbows from the guard. He doesn’t look to pass much & prefers to just stay in inside his opponent’s guard & work. In his match with Kennedy Nzechukwu, he couldn’t control Kennedy on the mat, but got multiple third round takedowns. He showed a better gas tank in this fight but was still extremely low volume. If fighters can force Stosic to work in the grappling though as far as defend takedowns or stand up from under him, he gets very tired. His takedown defense is very good overall though. He isn’t a submission threat with just one in his career.
Both these guys throw heavy and could get a KO at any point in this fight. I think Darko will have success with leg kicks and I think he will be more likely to land takedowns here. Hill will be the one throwing with more volume and he has a 3-inch reach advantage as well. I think this is going to be a close fight and could end in KO either way. I am not confident picking who gets the KO but if it goes to a decision I think Hill wins with his volume, so I will side with him as my pick.
This is a fight I like a decent amount because of the KO potential on both sides. I don’t see Stosic scoring highly in a decision but as an underdog I am interested in him, he has big power. Hill could score highly in a decision and he will be the fighter striking at a higher pace, so he could possibly pay off his salary in a decision win. I will be mixing both guys into lineups, but this is a GPP only fight for me because they both have low floors. Vegas has FDGTD at only -135 though and this fight could be highly owned. It makes for an interesting fade if you are only making a few lineups.
Winner – Jamahal Hill via 2nd round (T)KO
Angela Hill $8,600 vs Hannah Cifers $7,600
Angela Hill
Age: 34
Height: 5’3
Weight: 115
Reach: 64.5”
Gym: Alliance MMA
From: New York
UFC Record: 5-7
Fight Matrix: 19
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -170
Angela Hill will be jumping in on short notice yet again as she takes on Hannah Cifers. Hill has been extremely active since rejoining the UFC in 2017. This will be her tenth fight in under three years. Hill has won two of her last three & looked great in her last match. Angela Hill is a very quick and nimble striker. She has good movement on the outside, using false start stutter step movements to throw off her blitzes and mixes it in with a lot of kicks and teips to the body and high kicks as well. She has great leg kicks off her blitzes and usually that is the shot she finishes with after she throws her left hand. She has a very nice jab & a good left hook. She will throw a right uppercut, left hook combo. She will attack the body with punches & kicks. She is great at mixing it up & targeting all areas. She will throw a left hook to leg kick combination. She will fake the left hook & throw a leg kick. She has a great overhand left and solid timing catching opponents coming in with it. She is good at moving her head in the pocket and rolling with shots to lessen the impact. She will slip & return with nice punching combinations. Hill has great drive by shots where she will walk an opponent into a jab or straight & angle off. She is very good at seeing kicks coming & parrying them. She has nice head kicks & hard round kicks to the body. She is very good early, she is extremely fast and keeps a heavy volume of leg kicks and blitz attacks. Her in and out movement is very good. She throws a ton of volume & fights at a very fast pace. She has some variety in her shots throwing a nice superman punch and step-in elbows. In this fight, she needs to pressure forward, feint & use leg kicks. She is going to be the fastest girl Cifers has ever fought, and I think she can stay in her face & counter better than any opponent she’s ever faced. She does lean back at times & can angle off with her hands low. She has to be careful with that here, because I feel Cifers could land hooks or overhands on the exits. She has 4 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes. She is very durable.
Angela Hill is a much-improved grappler. I don’t expect the takedowns of Cifers being very effective. In the clinch, Hill was very good in her last fight. She was able to reverse position and disengage against a strong woman. Hill will get very good head positioning in the single collar clinch against the cage & control from there. She was also able to land nasty knees to the body & eventually finished the fight due to cuts created from clinch elbows. Her elbows in the clinch were money & she battered Carnelossi. Angela Hill has gotten submitted a few times in the octagon. In this fight though, I believe that she will have the takedown defense to keep it standing. Hill has zero submissions in her career but has been doing Jiu-Jitsu competitions & improving there. She has been submitted twice in her career. Hill is going to look to keep it standing & put on a show.
Hannah Cifers
Age: 27
Height: 5’1
Weight: 115
Reach: 62”
Gym: Embrace Martial Arts
From: North Carolina
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 37
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +150
Hannah Cifers is getting a main event slot in her home state of North Carolina. This is the biggest spot of her career & she will be coming in as the underdog. Cifers is 2-1 in the UFC & has won back to back fights since suffering a setback in her debut. Cifers is a striker. She is a smaller girl at 5’2 & her footwork is not very good. I think in this fight that could be an issue for her. Cifers does crack & has big power in her overhand right. Cifers is good at landing that overhand right as opponents enter range. Cifers will attack the body and head with combinations. She will throw straight punch combos to the body and head and has a nice right hook to the body. Cifers does a good job of coming forward, throwing hooks & overhands while ducking & rolling. Cifers will throw occasional leg kicks. They don’t seem very powerful. She has a solid, rear leg body kick. Cifers is very hittable herself & she throws with full power overextending herself. I expect Hill to be able to pick her apart if this fight stays on the outside. Cifers struggled with the kicks of Polyana Viana especially to the body. Cifers is a very tough chick & has a lot of heart. She has been finished by strikes just once vs Maycee Barber.
Hannah Cifers is not an active grappler in fights. She is very strong in the clinch & has short range power. She will throw short hooks, uppercuts & has pretty fast hands. Cifers isn’t a wrestler & has just one UFC takedown. In top position, she doesn’t do very much. She holds position & stays tight, but her ground & pound isn’t super dangerous & she isn’t a big submission threat on top. Cifers was taken down three times in her last match with Jodie Esquibel. Cifers struggled with the timing of Jodie’s double legs. Cifers is active off her back with armbars, triangles, & omaplatas. Cifers will look for leg locks. She was able to shut down Jodie Esquibel’s top game with her guard. Cifers isn’t going to have to worry about a double leg more than likely in this fight. Cifers is yet to earn a submission victory in her MMA career. She has been submitted once herself.
This should be a 15-minute striking battle and I see Hill being the fighter who lands more throughout the fight. Cifers will probably be the one moving forward though and could land the bigger shots, but I think Hill wins this fight on volume and I think she will have the better defense, so I don’t see Cifers being able to land a KO shot and I see Hill out striking her in at least 2 of the 3 rounds.
This will be Hill or pass for me. I don’t love the ceiling from Hill here, but I do like her to get the win and she can get 10x+ in a decision win. She lands almost 6 sig strikes per minute and Cifers is hittable. I think Hill is in line for an 80-90-point win here, so I like her in all formats. I am just not sure that will get it done in GPPs, so I probably won’t get much of her. Cifers will be a full fade for me because I don’t like her chances at a win here and I don’t see much of a ceiling from her. I think she is a fine cash game punt, but I like Kish more personally.
Winner – Angela Hill via Unanimous Decision
Alex Perez $9,100 vs Jordan Espinosa $7,100
Alex Perez
Age: 27
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 65.5”
Gym: Team Obama
From: California
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: 46(BW)
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -260
Alex Perez enters this match a sizeable favorite. Perez is 4-1 in the UFC with his lone loss coming against MMA legend Joseph Benavidez. Perez has been on the shelf almost a year after having to pull out a fight with an injury late last year. Perez is coming off a dominant decision win over Mark De La Rosa. Perez is a well-rounded fighter & a finisher. He is a come forward striker and likes to stalk opponents to the cage. He has good footwork & head movement as he cuts off the cage & makes it feel small for opponents. He has nice leg kicks, and good overhand rights. He has nice one-twos. He has a heavy right hook & overhand right. He will throw right hook, straight-left hand combinations. He has fast hooks in close range. He likes to counter with a left hook. Against Jose Torres, he blitzed him with hooks & uppercuts in combination. He throws nasty, standing elbows that slice opponents open. He will attack the body with punches as well. He will throw nice elbows. He is good at grabbing the Thai plum & landing nice knees to the head. He throws a ton of volume & is very strong in round one. He landed 104 strikes in his round one KO finish of Jose Torres. He did struggle a bit in his last match with the speed of Benavidez. He had a hard time closing the distance, and Benavidez was able to hit and angle off a few times. He is a big 125er & I do feel he will be able to cut the cage off better at 135. Perez has 4 KO/TKO’s & has only been finished once by strikes.
Perez is a solid grappler. He likes to get in the clinch and throw nasty uppercuts and hooks in the dirty boxing range. He is good in the transitional periods of striking & grappling. He will throw Thai clinch knees on the break to the head and body. He has nice double legs & occasional body locks but has an awesome single leg. He is very good at using fakes, feints and setting it up with his right hand. On top, he is pretty good. He has good control & he is good at finding the back. He will turk the legs & move to mount. He is dangerous with chokes. He loves to get to the front headlock position and he will look for a variation of different chokes. He will look for anacondas, darces and guillotines. He has finished two of his last 4 wins by anaconda choke. He is good at using sprawling & getting in that position when he defends takedowns. He will use it to attack with the chokes, or scramble to top position. In his last fight, when he was taken down by Joseph Benavidez, he was pounded with some hard G&P. He seemed to just accept defeat & just stay in a position without moving where he knew the ref would stop it. He has 6 submissions himself but has been submitted 3 times. He has good cardio & will keep a high pace for all three rounds. Alex Perez is going to be the faster fighter here. He needs to try to stay technical & land shots as Espinosa tries to get his combinations going. Espinosa will walk forward in straight lines with no head movement & Perez will definitely land some shots.
Jordan Espinosa
Age: 30
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 69.5”
Gym: Luthrell’s MMA
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 24
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +220
Jordan Espinosa had his five-fight winning streak snapped in his last outing. He was submitted by Matt Schnell in the first round. Espinosa is getting another chance at a big name here vs Alex Perez. Espinosa is super-fast & explosive. He has a hands down style & likes to dart in & out with blitz attacks. He tends to fight moving backwards a lot but works behind the jab & makes opponents pay with counters. Espinosa has a really nice, heavy jab. He will throw nice leg kicks. Espinosa has good drive by straight-right hands. He will throw tight one-twos. He does have a nice check left hook going backwards & dropped his opponent on the DWCS with it. He will throw powerful body & head kicks. His head kicks come very fast, he had a nice head kick knockout of Nick Urso on the DWCS. He will throw the head kick after his one-twos. When he can’t get the fight to the mat and is being out struck, he can panic a bit. He can start to shoot takedowns from too far outside & flop to his back. He doesn’t have much boxing at all & really is trying to be all the way out until he can enter with a long punch, kick or takedown. He is improving with his pull countering ability & being more confident in the pocket. He is very fast & will slip & counter with straight punches. The issue with his defense is he tends to lean back when he throws punches & doesn’t have his hands up. This leads to him getting hit flush on the chin at times. Espinosa also will dart in with his hands low eating shots that way occasionally as well. Espinosa is hard to hit when he’s going backwards though due to his speed. I have seen him wobbled & rocked in fights, but he recovers well. He has two career KO/TKO’s & has never been finished with strikes.
Jordan Espinosa is a former wrestler with some Jiu-Jitsu skills. He doesn’t tend to work in the clinch much, but he has nasty knees to the body. He is explosive & has good double leg takedowns. He will dig an underhook & and land a trip takedown or drop down for a double. He will shoot single legs as well. On top, he has decent ground & pound elbows, but is mainly looking for submissions. He has very good guard passes & will athletically jump from guard to side control. He is very fast in the scrambles & floats well on top as opponents move on bottom. When opponents try to belly down & stand up, that’s where he is most dangerous working his front head lock series. Espinosa did land a double leg in his last match that put him directly into a guillotine & then a triangle which made him tap quickly. He can get taken down himself, but overall, he has good takedown defense. Off his back, he does a good job of scrambling & returning to his feet. He is always looking to get to the darce position & that is his go to submission. He is very good at jumping on darces after he hurts an opponent. He has 5 career darces & 7 submissions overall. Espinosa has been submitted three times himself.
I think this fight is closer than the line indicates but I do think Perez is the better all-around fighter. I think this fight is close in the striking department, but I see Perez’s takedowns being the key here and if he can land a takedown or two in a round, that might be all it takes to win the round if it is back and forth on the feet.
Perez is my preferred play here. I like him on the feet and the mat and I think he can put up decent numbers with the pace he sets. He lands almost 5 sig strikes per minute and he averages just over 3 takedowns per 15-minutes. I won’t be heavy on him, but he will for sure make my player pool and I think he is fine in all formats. I think Espinosa can keep this fight close though and is live for a win. I wouldn’t talk you off him in any format, but I don’t think I get much of him, if any at all. Maybe 1-2 max if I make 20 lineups.
Winner – Alex Perez via Unanimous Decision
Rafael Dos Anjos $8,900 vs Michael Chiesa $7,300
Rafael Dos Anjos
Age: 35
Height: 5’9
Weight: 170
Reach: 70”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 18-10
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -270
Rafael Dos Anjos has his back against the wall here as he takes on Michael Chiesa. Dos Anjos has lost three of four fights, but the losses have come to arguably the three best fighters in the division. Dos Anjos has been able to defend his top five position against fighters at Chiesa’s caliber so far at 170, and we will see if he can do it again. He is a great, well-rounded fighter, a nasty Muay Thai striker, and black belt in Jiu-Jitsu with good wrestling. He has a heavy, forward pressure style and throws very high volume. He has a nice lead straight and leaping right hook. He will throw the left straight and left overhand very fast down the pipe. He has very hard body and leg kicks and throws body kicks early and often. He will leap in with an uppercut. RDA has great fakes, feints and has good head movement. He is much more balanced and technical striker than Chiesa. RDA doesn’t have huge power and doesn’t have many finishes by strikes. In this fight it will be interesting to see if his shots have enough impact to stun Chiesa, who hasn’t shown the greatest chin. RDA will hang in the pocket and wing overhands in the pocket. He was fighting against the cage a lot of the fight against Usman and Covington, and that’s why he lost the fight. RDA will want to make Chiesa move backwards with his striking and boss the fight. He can’t win this match backing up. Dos Anjos ha 5 KO/TKO’s in his career. Dos Anjos has been KO/TKO’d 3 times, but he has a hell of a chin. He can take big shots & keep coming.
RDA is not a bad grappler at all, he just has had to go up against the elite of the elite lately. He is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu & has solid offensive wrestling himself. He will rarely go for takedowns, but he has a nice double leg against the fence. He will occasionally shoot singles at range, but he is always usually transitioning back to the double leg. When he gets on top he is very good. He has a heavy top game, and uses pressure passing to move into dominant positions. He won his last match with a submission. He is very good at just beating opponents up from the guard with shots as well and defending submissions. He has stayed safe in the guards of fighters such as Anthony Pettis & Nate Diaz. He has a very nice kimura from half guard and will also look for arm triangles. He likes to take the back & get rear naked chokes as well. RDA has a good Muay Thai plum and knees in the clinch. He is good at making fighters pay for attempting to take him down and popping right back up when they do. RDA has always struggled with wrestlers; Losing to Covington, Usman, Khabib, Guida, Tibau, and Tyson Griffin. He also had a very questionable decision win vs Evan Dunham. He is much better now at defending takedowns and using the cage to get off his back. He will get wide against the cage and does a good job breaking the posture of his opponents and landing nice elbows. He has good knees to the body. He has a very good sprawl, and when he does get taken down, he will bounce right back up. He is active off his back with sweeps & kimura attempts, and usually always is back to his feet quickly. He has 11 submissions & has never been submitted in his career. He has the better cardio & more championship experience.
Michael Chiesa
Age: 32
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: SikJitsu
From: Washington
UFC Record: 9-4
Fight Matrix: 25
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +230
Michael Chiesa will be taking a big step up in competition after a 2-0 start at WW. Chiesa has looked very big and strong at 170 lbs, but this is the ultimate test for him. If he can beat Dos Anjos, he will be very close to a title shot. Chiesa is a long southpaw. He is a kicker and likes to stay on the outside until he closes the distance for takedowns. He will throw a decent jab, straight-right hand, but he tends to throw with full power making it easy to slip & counter him. He has good body & head kicks and will slip quick, straight punches in after throwing them. Overall, Chiesa is a flawed striker. He doesn’t move his head, and he tends to overextend himself where he can easily be countered. He also doesn’t set his kicks up well at times. He has a good chin and has relied on taking some punishment to get inside. He has never been finished by strikes, only by a cut against Joe Lauzon. He did get dropped and submitted in his match against Anthony Pettis. He throws with power but isn’t a big KO threat with only two career TKO’s.
Chiesa is a physical wrestler, and very strong. He has very long arms and is able to get the body lock & his hands connected from far out. He throws nice knees to the body in the clinch and will attack with elbows. He has a body lock trip & and single leg takedown. He has a crushing top game, putting heavy pressure on opponents. He likes to stand up in opponent’s guards & throw hard kicks & try to land hard elbows or pass guard. He will transition to the mount where he will throw shots until his opponents give their backs. He is a great back taker and can get them in the scrambles as well. He has a great rear naked choke. He is hard to takedown, but fighters can win scrambles against him when he’s too aggressive, and he tends to give up his back as well. He is good on bottom and does a good job of regaining guard where he attacks. He has good triangles & will look for kimuras, either to submit or sweep. He got tired after round one against Pettis, and didn’t come in the greatest shape, but he usually has good cardio. Chiesa has 11 submissions including 8 rear naked chokes. He has been submitted three times in his career.
I like RDA here. He is levels above Chiesa on the feet and I think he may even be the better offensive wrestler of the two. He does struggle some with his takedown defense though and Chiesa is going to want this fight on the mat. I think he could have success with takedowns here, but I don’t see him winning 2 or more rounds with his wrestling. I think RDA hurts him on the feet, maybe with a body shot, and picks up a TKO at some point in this fight.
RDA is my preferred guy here and I like him in all formats. I am worried about him spending some time on his back, but I like him to get a finish here and he will dominate every second it stays on the feet. I will probably be overweight on RDA here and I could see him making my cash LU as well. I don’t see me getting much Chiesa but if Chiesa wins, he will score highly and likely be on the nuts. I think he is a fine GPP play if you believe in him more than I do, but I won’t get more than 1-2 lineups with him out of 20.
Winner – Rafael Dos Anjos via 1st round (T)KO
Curtis Blaydes $9,000 vs Junior Dos Santos $7,200
Curtis Blaydes
Age: 28
Height: 6’3
Weight: 265
Reach: 80”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 7-2-1
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 4-months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -250
Curtis Blaydes is entering his first career main event coming off a two-fight win streak. Blaydes is one of the premiere fighters in the division & has only lost to Francis Ngannou. Blaydes will be looking to take out a former champion in JDS. Curtis Blaydes is a big wrestler who trains out of team Elevation. He is improving his striking, and he has much better footwork and feints than he had at the start of his UFC Career. He will throw a lot of jabs and one-twos. He is quick for a heavyweight and will throw some nice body & head kicks. He has a nice left hook, right hook combination. He has a strong overhand right. When he backs opponents to the cage, he will explode with quick punch flurries. He can sometimes retract his punches a little slow and can get countered and clipped. He has a very good chin. He was never hurt badly and took a ton of shots against Ngannou in the first fight, and then survived a knockdown in round 1 against Mark Hunt. He recovers extremely quickly. His right hand is powerful, and if he can land one clean on the chin he can knock fighters unconscious. His speed, footwork, head movement and cardio will be hard for HWs to deal with standing up, and that’s with them knowing Blaydes is always trying to take them down also. Blaydes has 9 KO/TKO’s and has been finished by strikes twice in his career both to Ngannou. He may be returning too quickly after being knocked out & his chin needs to be monitored here.
Blaydes is one of the best HW wrestlers I have ever seen. He is one of the few HWs who are athletic enough to shoot takedowns, and he does an excellent job of waiting until fighters are just a little off balance or a little out of position and blasting an easy double leg. He is much better at closing the distance safely and timing when to shoot them the first time him and Francis fought, and I don’t see him getting hit coming in nearly as much as the previous fight. He likes to grind in the clinch as well, where he will get his opponent to the cage, and work short shots while looking to find a takedown. On top, he is vicious. When he can get to dominant positions, he is extremely heavy and has some of the best G&P in the sport. He will rain down powerful elbows. He likes to control from half guard. He has no problem controlling on top & just winning the round. He isn’t a submission threat with 0 in his career & has never been submitted. Blaydes has tremendous cardio.
Junior Dos Santos
Age: 35
Height: 6’3
Weight: 238
Reach: 77”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 15-5
Fight Matrix: 4
Last Fought: 7-months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +210
Junior Dos Santos is looking to bounce back from a knockout loss to Francis Ngannou. The former champion had his three-fight win streak snapped & needs a win here if he ever wants to go on another title run. Junior Dos Santos is one of the best HWs of all time. He has beaten fighters such as Stipe Miocic, Cain Velasquez, Fabricio Werdum, and Shane Carwin. He is a great boxer, and very fast with his hand speed for a HW. He has a nasty jab and will attack the body with it regularly. I see his jab being an integral part to his win here if he gets it. He does a great job of working off his jab after establishing it. After he bloodied Rothwell’s face he began feinting the jab, and throwing overhand right, right & left hooks. He has a great counter left hook, and his counter punching makes it hard for fighters to be aggressive with Dos Santos. Dos Santos has nasty low leg kicks, he hurt the leg of Stipe Miocic prior to being finished in his title fight, and I think he will utilize those in this fight. His footwork has always been an issue, he doesn’t have great lateral movement and fighters are able to push him to the cage. When he gets stuck against the cage, he doesn’t react well, and can get hit clean or taken down. Dos Santos has been better in his last two fights of using his jab and more lateral movement, but that is still an issue for him. Dos Santos is extremely dangerous and has huge power. He has 14 KO/TKO’s and has finished some of the best HWs of all time. He has taken a lot of damage and his chin is questionable at this point. He has been finished 4 times by KO/TKO, and they were his last four losses.
Junior Dos Santos is a good grappler, and black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. We don’t usually see him go for many takedowns, but he has shown good blast double legs and can shoot singles, push his opponents to the cage and then look for a takedown from there. Defensively, Dos Santos has good takedown defense historically, and is very hard to hold down. He still backs towards the cage & he struggled to avoid the takedowns of Velasquez who’s a similar wrestler to Blaydes. Dos Santos struggles with fast, mobile wrestlers. Dos Santos has had much more experience in five round fights, and he can go all 5 rounds comfortably. He has only 1 submission in his career, and been submitted one time.
This is going to come down to whether or not JDS can stuff the takedowns. He could also get knocked out on the feet, but JDS is the better all-around striker and I think he is a live dog here. Blaydes is the best wrestler in the HW division though and he lands over 7 takedowns per 15-minutes. We have seen JDS struggle against great wrestlers before with Cain, so I think Blaydes is the rightful favorite here and wins this fight more than not. However, JDS does stuff 80% of takedowns on average and I think the +210 lines on JDS is a bit high. This is going to be a dog or pass fight for me on the betting line. I think I will wait and see if it moves any higher, but I might take a 1u shot on JDS later in the week. I will pick JDS here, but it is more of a shot at the number instead of a confident pick in JDS.
This will be an all-in fight for me. I am fine with a stack or a fade in cash, but I personally wouldn’t be using either guy solo. I think Blaydes solo will be pretty popular, I just don’t believe in him as much as the field will. Blaydes should be the highest owned fighter on the card as well and he has the highest ceiling on the card. If he is going to win it will be with takedowns and GNP. Or he could catch JDS on the feet and get a KO. Either way, he is going to pay off his salary in a win with the pace he sets. I like JDS to get a finish if he can keep this fight standing and if he wins a decision here that would be fine as well at his price. I want to be overweight on the field to JDS here because I think he gets overlooked. This isn’t a confident pick at all, but I am taking JDS to get the upset here. I will have maybe 50/50 in exposure here though which should put me in line on Blaydes and maybe double the field on JDS.
Winner – Junior Dos Santos via 1st round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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