Hello DFS Army members and welcome to Mutt18’s Value Traps and Who’s Trending for the 2019-2020 NBA DFS Season! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 6-7 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. If you’re familiar with last year’s article then welcome back! I’m very excited to keep doing these as I feel they provide a huge edge, especially now that FanDuel has gotten rid of the Drop Score, identifying those Value Traps is going to be even more important as rostering one of them in your lineup will ruin your night. For those unfamiliar or new to the article, I break things down as follows:
This article here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, is a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
Tonight we have a really juicy 10 game slate, so there’s going to be more Value Traps than you would find on a smaller slate and we’re going to need to really single them out to avoid them and kill your lineups, as nailing the value picks will be key to winning tonight.
Value Traps
Cory Joseph (FD: $4,600 DK: $4,500) – Joseph has been very up and down for the Kings since taking over at PG with De’Aaron Fox sidelined for the past few weeks. He’s only averaging around 18 FPPG over the past 3 games, and he actually draws a tough matchup here, as the Trailblazers are actually allowing the 2nd least FPPG to opposing PGs over the last week. He’s also losing almost 2 minutes of playing time per game, as he hovers around 24 minutes now and he’s mostly in there just to play defense. Given the matchup and the fact that he’s only returning around 4.1x value at this salary (which has been pretty consistent) over the past few weeks, makes me want to take a pass on him.
Royce O’Neale (FD: $3,700 DK: $3,600) – Lets just take a look at his numbers so far this season, and against the Lakers:
With Conley out tonight, people will look at O’Neale as a value option, but I really just don’t see it. He has a usage rate under 10% and the guy is playing almost 29 minutes per game and doing nothing with it. He also doesn’t have a great history against the Lakers as you can see. Even if he does see a little boost with Conley out, he’s not going to get you that 8-9x value return that you want on a big slate like this.
Just Missed the Cut: Eric Bledsoe (FD: $7,100 DK: $6,200) – He’s a little bit better of a play on DraftKings, just because his price is cheaper there. However, since Khris Middleton came back, he’s been averaging 3.1x value return, and almost 4 FPPG less. It’s clear that Middleton returning to the starting lineup effects him the most, so I’ll be passing on him tonight despite a decent matchup against Detroit.
Who’s Trending
Harrison Barnes (FD: $5,600 DK: $5,800) – I know, I know, this isn’t the sexiest pick out there, but there’s no denying that the dude has been crushing over the past few games, and if Bogdanovic is out again tonight, then he’s in another smash spot. If Bogdanovic is out tonight, Barnes will play close to 40 minutes, and he’s been averaging 32.5 FPPG over his last 3, with the last game being over 20 FPs. The juicy part here, is that over the past 2 weeks, the Trailblazers are allowing the 2nd most FPPG to opposing SFs. He’ll also have miniscule ownership and can really be a difference maker in GPPs, especially in the hammer game.
Luka Doncic (FD: $12,500 DK: $11,600) – I know shocker right? A guy touting Luka Doncic. He gets a phenomenal matchup here, and people will be off of him because of the B2B and it’s a 10 game slate. However, he didn’t play his full minutes last night, as the Mavs handled the Pelicans quite easily, and he didn’t see the court in the 4th quarter. I especially love him on DraftKings, where he is cheaper than Giannis, and according to our research station, actually has the higher ceiling. Throw in the fact that the Timberwolves are allowing the 3rd most FPPG to opposing PGs on the season, and you have an absolute smash spot for Luka Doncic.
Emmanuel Mudiay (FD: $3,500 DK: $3,200) – Here’s your value play of the article, as Mike Conley has already been ruled out, which makes it very likely that Mudiay starts in his place which will cause him to see a ton of additional minutes. He has a respectable 24.5% usage rate with Conley off the floor, and if he plays 25ish minutes he should easily eclipse 6-7x value for you tonight. He will be popular though. If we get word that Exum will start over Mudiay, then pivot to Exum, as I prefer the guy who will start as he’ll likely see more minutes.
Just Missed the Cut: Donovan Mitchell (FD: $8,000 DK: $7,100) – With Conley already ruled out tonight, that means we’ll see a lot of point Mitchell, who is very fantasy friendly. Although I don’t love the slow paced game against the Lakers, Mitchell has a 31.7% usage rate with Conley off the court, and he’ll have the ball in his hands all night. He’s way too cheap on DraftKings, and a bit underpriced on FanDuel. He won’t be as highly owned on a bigger slate as well, especially against the Lakers.
Everyone, NBA is very volatile with late scratches so please pay extra attention to Breaking News today! Stay on your toes!
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I’m your FanDuel coach today!) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
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