What’s up everyone?! Welcome to The Inside Line: Xfinity Series. Larkin8 here and this week we will be covering all the drivers participating in the Desert Diamond West Valley Casino 200 NASCAR XFINITY Series race at ISM Raceway. If you have any other questions be sure to jump into the NASCAR Talk slack channel for assistance from our NASCAR coaches. You can follow me on Twitter @Larkin8
Christopher Bell $11,800
Bell is the clear cut favorite to win and dominate this race. This track type has been dominated by Gibbs over the past decade and in the last couple years by Bell. He started last in this race in 2018 drove straight to the front and won leading 94 laps. Earlier this year he started on pole and led 68 laps before being involved in an accident. He will have the best car again this week. Either go heavy or very light to get some leverage.
Tyler Reddick $11,500
The Xfinity Series fields are light so even at a track like Phoenix where he isn’t at his best Reddick is still a top 5 driver. I don’t think he has what it takes to dominate this race so will be hard to imagine him meeting value. Get some coverage in MME but playing just a couple lineups he is probably worth a fade.
Cole Custer $11,000
Custer has been really solid here with four straight finishes of 8th or better. This would be really good for any driver but in terms of DK his best finish of 4th and 2 total laps led doesn’t get the job done. I would expect a top 5 and some fast laps but like Reddick might struggle to reach a meaningful point total.
Justin Allgaier $10,600
Love JA this week. This track is one of his best overall and given that he has had some rough finishes as of late we may see ownership go elsewhere. Allgaier has led 69 (nice) or more laps in 3 of the last 5 ISM races. In his last nine races at ISM he has finished 4th or better in six of them including a win in 2017. More of a dom threat than Custer and Reddick. Also, will be in need of points as he looks to make the championship final in Miami.
Chase Briscoe $10,300
Another driver I am high on this week. Briscoe comes in essentially needing a victory this week. This means he will be going all out. This makes him a risky cash play but GPP adds a little extra to an already good situation. He won at Iowa earlier this year which isn’t a direct correlation but definitely offers some similarities. Finished 6th in the spring.
Austin Cindric $10,000
Perhaps his best non road course track on the schedule. Has finished 4th and 5th the last two times out and even led 16 laps in those two races. He battled hard in this race last year and was in contention for the win late. This Penske team always gets around here well. Top 5 is very realistic and as a driver needing a win we might seem him take some chance late.
Michael Annett $9,600
Annett is never going to be a dom threat in any race which makes his price a little hard to stomach. However, he is a poor qualifier who tends to see a decent amount of positive place differential. Expect him to contend for top 10 finish this week.
Noah Gragson $9,300
Noah has become the #1 driver in the best of the rest category. We have the big 3 of Custer, Reddick and Bell followed by the elite Allgaier and Briscoe. After those drivers we have a decent crop drivers from 6th-15th and Noah has been leading this group for the last few months. He is a constant top 5 threat and has kept his car out of trouble for the most part. If he ever qualifies 8th or worse he is worth some attention.
Brandon Jones $9,000
Jones takes a car capable of winning and will finish between 7th and 10th. I may sound like a broken record at times but this dude has elite equipment and he rarely performs to the level he should. Top 10 car that technically has top 5 upside but wouldn’t count on it. Worth some ownership if he qualifies outside the top 10.
Zane Smith $8,800
This has to be one of the cars to watch this week for DK. Smith is back in the #8 car this week. He has been able to run in the 5th-8th range most weeks and has offered really solid value. The reason he is a driver to watch is that this car finished 2nd in the spring race here with Ryan Truex behind the wheel. Very interested to see if Zane can reolicate a top 5 performance.
Justin Haley $8,600
Haley finished 12th here in the spring. He will likely be fighting for one of the last spots inside the top 10 as this style of track has not been their strong point. Likely better plays in this range but don’t be afraid to play him in the right place diff. situation.
John H. Nemechek $8,400
Everyone who has been paying attention knows I love me some JHN. Dude is the most underrated talent in NASCAR and ISM is a great place for him to show why. He led 33 laps in this race last year before falling to 9th late in the race. He also finished 9th here in the spring race this season. His truck series record here is very strong and this is a place he as a driver can make a difference. Top 10 in his future for sure.
Riley Herbst $8,200
On the heels of announcing he will be in the #18 for Joe Gibbs full time in 2020 Herbst is back in the car this week at ISM. I feel like an jerk sometimes when I say these things but this dude lacks talent. He is another driver taking a race winning car and running 10th-15th. He technically has top 5 upside but I would be against that every single time. At the price he is worth some ownership if he qualifies outside the top 10.
Ryan Sieg $8,000
Sieg had to use the car he was planning on using this week at Texas last week after wrecking in practice. This realistically shouldn’t be too much of a problem but teams usually have setups ready to go when leaving for the track and this may only add a little bit of extra struggle this week. He is a fringe top 10 car either way. Not the best play without obvious place differential.
Gray Gaulding $7,800
Gaulding is starting to creep up in price to the point where he is struggling to have value. He fininshed 16th here in March and is roughly a 15th place car everywhere. If he qualifies 18th or worse he will offer the upside to be worth playing.
Josh Williams $7,700
Williams will be roughly an 18th place car with top 15 upside if others have issues. Often offers some decent place differential so be on the look out for that. Definitely a solid mid tier play if he does.
Jeremy Clements $7,500
Clements continues one of the best plays in this lower mid tier area. Without any issues he is a top 15 car every week. Solid play in all formats.
Ray Black Jr $7,300
Ray Black Jr is on a bit of a hot streak over the last 3 months. 10 of his last 11 races have finished inside the top 20. Expand that to last 21 races and he has 17 top 20 finishes. He has back to back top 15s and finished 12th at Texas. Finished 18th here in the spring. Top 20 seems rather obvious for him and there is a legit top 15 threat here. Oh and he always seems to have a positive place diff. Really good play.
Stephen Leicht $7,200
Leicht will have weeks where he jumps up and scores a top 20 but more often than not this is a 25th-30th place car. High price for a driver with many contemporaries with higher upsides.
Garrett Smithley $7,000
Slightly better situation than Leicht. More of a 20th-25th place car and often carries more of a place diff upside. He was once $8,000 due to this. Good value if he can stay the hell out of the leaders way.
Brandon Brown $6,900
The last of the obvious top 15 threats Brown is a decent play most weeks. He has had reliability issues and hasn’t been as consistent as Gaulding and Black which is why you see him at a lower price point. Decent play in GPP.
Landon Cassill $6,700
Start and Park. Fade.
Ryan Vargas $6,600
Vargas is in the #4 this week for JDM. This is a top 20 car most weeks but Vargas is lacking in experience and talent department. Hard to compare him to drivers like Chastain and Cassill. That being said decent upside for a good price. We will want as much place differential as possible.
Josh Bilicki $6,500
Bilicki will be about a 22nd-25th place car that can score a top 20 in the right situation. Another driver dependent on place differential.
Vinnie Miller $6,400
Miller will likely qualify towards the very back. This always gives him lots of place differential opportunities and a safe floor. Top 25 upside but will likely end up around 28th.
Matt Mills $6,300
Mills is similar to Miller but with a slightly better upside. We have seen him score some top 20s at times this year. Like him a good bit more than his teammate Miller overall just depends on where he qualifies.
Joey Gase $6,200
Gase has become a staple in the top DK lineups due to his horrible qualifying yet solid finishes in the 18th-23rd range. Something he has done 6 of the last 10 races. If he keeps this trend up he will continue to be a good punt play.
Ronnie Bassett Jr $6,000
Bassett in this #90 car always have top 20 speed however they never seem to be able to capitalize on it. Only 2 top 20s in 11 starts this year. Worth a shot in gpps because the upside is there but dude needs to start taking care of his equipment.
David Starr $5,900
Starr continues to offer top 25 upside from a team that qualifies in the 30s quite a lot. This type of place diff is fantastic from a punt. He does have some reliability issues though so always carries a bit of a risk.
Bobby Earnhardt $5,800
Earnhardt is back again this week in the #66. My man is probably working hard right now to figure out another way to back a car into the wall. He has destroyed 2 cars in 2 race weekends with this team. For that reason play with extreme caution. Otherwise this is a top 25 car that should offer some place diff. Decent punt play if he can not tear the car up.
Tommy Joe Martins $5,600
Unlike Bobby E, Tommy Joe will almost always do a great job taking care of his car. He is in the #61 car this week and is a legit top 20 threat. Depending on where he qualifies he could be one of the most valuable drivers on the slate. I like him a lot this week.
Chad Finchum $5,500
Finchum is driving the #13 this week. It has been a start and park every race this year. He does have sponsors listed however so we will need to monitor this situation. Safe play would be to fade and not risk it.
Tyler Matthews $5,300
Tyler Matthews is back in the #15 this week. Essentially a 25th-28th place car. Will need to offer a decent amount of place diff to be worth playing.
Dexter Bean $5,200
Driving a 3rd DGM car this week the #92. I don’t know the scenario behind all his oval starts but he appears to have a history of start and park with this team. I would fade and play the other around him. Will be slow as hell either way.
Bayley Currey $5,000
Back in the #93 this week. He will be a top 20 threat again this week. Finished 20th in this car last week at Texas. Very interesting situation, hopefully doesn’t qualify too high like he did last week.
Mike Harmon $4,900
Harmon blew and engine and wrecked in practice. He will be racing a back up car. He will be the slowest in the race and will have an ultra limited upside. Fade unless you are praying for chaos.
JJ Yeley $4,800
Start and park. Fade
Joe Nemechek $4,700
Start and Park. Fade