Welcome to The Inside Line: Truck Series. Larkin8 here and this week we will be covering all the drivers participating in the Ford EcoBoost 200 NASCAR Gander Outdoors Truck Series race at Homestead Miami Speedway. If you have any other questions be sure to jump into the NASCAR Talk slack channel for assistance from our NASCAR coaches. You can follow me on Twitter @Larkin8
Ross Chastain $11,400
Chastain will be racing for the championship this week which puts him on the shortlist of obvious dominators. He wasn’t all that strong on the 1.5 mile tracks at times this year but he did score a win at Kansas. While that was down to the misfortune of others he also put in a strong performance at Vegas which was the most recent 1.5 mile race. He led 88 laps and finished 2nd. I like Friesen and Moffitt more but Chastain will surely be a contender.
Brett Moffitt $11,000
Moffitt won this race last year leading 59 laps. He has been one of the best trucks all year long and should be a top contender for the win. Also, racing for the championship and will be battling for the lead early and often.
Stewart Friesen $10,700
My personal pick for the win this weekend and to become the 2019 Truck champ. The 1.5 mile tracks have been his specialty for the last two years. He has an incredible ability to carry momentum throughout a run. There is also a momentum aspect as well. Friesen won last week at ISM Raceway. Moffitt had a similar end of 2018 winning at ISM and then going to Homstead and winning the championship.
Grant Enfinger $10,400
Finished 2nd in this race last year after leading 33 laps. This is definitely his best track type and he should be considered a dark horse to win. However, he has lacked speed and continuity the last two months. Where Friesen has positive momentum, Enfinger is riding a wave of negative momentum that took the regular season champ out of the playoffs early. Top 5 contender.
Johnny Sauter $10,100
Sauter has struggled for speed all year long. It is hard to imagine he will be able to contend for a top 5 based off of everything we have seen in 2019. Probably an 8th place truck who can’t pay off his price.
Ben Rhodes $9,800
Rhodes often shows flashes of speed and moments of horrible performance. I like him as a place differential play but would bet against him being a dominator in any form. If he starts outside the top 10 worth some ownership.
Matt Crafton $9,600
Crafton is the 4th and final driver racing for the championship this weekend. Crafton does have a race win here in the past but it is really hard to imagine a scenario where he contends with the top 3 drivers. He hasn’t won a race all year and also hasn’t even scored a top 5 finish in 13 races.
Harrison Burton $9,400
In his last 8 races Burton has a best finish of 7th. He finished 11th in this race last year and quite frankly has struggled to show any top 5 ability. Hard to get on board with playing him without massive place diff upside or mind blowing speed in practice. Fade.
Todd Gilliland $9,200
Unlike Burton, Gilliland has 3 top 5s in his last 4 races including the Martinsville win. His price makes a bit more sense overall. The 1.5 mile tracks have arguably been his strong point as well. 5th at Vegas, 6th at Chicago, 7th at Charlotte and 3rd at Kansas. We also can’t forget him clearly having the best truck at Texas before wrecking late. I like Todd as a top 5 threat this week. With the right place diff he could be a solid play.
Austin Hill $9,000
Hill’s best tracks all year have been the 1.5-2 mile high speed ovals. His worst finish in races he finished is 8th and he has wins at Vegas and Michigan. Definitely a top 5 contender. Important to remember he driving for the team that dominated and won this race last year as well.
Sheldon Creed $8,800
Creed has had incredible speed at this style of track as well this year. He has been battling the likes of Hill and the KBM trucks for top 5 spots. I like the speed his team has had and he could even be a sneaky dom play early on. He finished 5th in this race last year. Really good mid tier gpp play.
Christian Eckes $8,600
Eckes is back in the #51 for KBM this week. He has had mixed results for this team in 2019. Four finishes of 14th or worse paired with three finishes of 6th or better. Definitely a good gpp play as he has a decent upside but he does come with some risk. The truck will be fast as hell though.
Tyler Ankrum $8,400
Ankrum recently announced he will be joining GMS for the 2020 season. Given he is out of the championship race and is leaving the team after this race I expect everyones attention to be elsewhere. definitely a top 10 quality truck though so worth some ownership in the right scenarios.
Dylan Lupton $8,200
Reasonably speaking this driver and team combination is a 15th 18th place truck. with some good fortune he can score a slightly better overall finish. Price is a bit much but if he starts towards the back grab some ownership.
Anthony Alfredo $8,000
Like his teammate Lupton he is about a 15th place truck with 12thish upside. Lots of good trucks this week to contend with but worth a shot in some gpps.
Parker Kligerman $7,800
Kligerman is back with the #75 team this week. This combination was very good in 2017 scoring multiple top 10s however after only running a couple races in 2019 it is hard to tell where this program is at the moment. I am predicting a top 15 finish from them.
Derek Kraus $7,700
Kraus will be making his 6th series start and 2nd on a mile and a half track. He had bad luck in Vegas which saw him finish 27th. He is another one of the mid tier trucks that has top 15 upside. There will be quite a battle between 5-8 drivers who have good trucks but limited experience and abilities.
Spencer Davis $7,500
Davis is back in the #11 for the fourth time in 2019. He finished 8th in what was an absolute crashfest at Kentucky but that should be ignored and his 18th at Vegas should be what we use to judge him by. Top 20ish truck that we will look for place differential from.
Austin Wayne Self $7,300
With the depth of field Self goes from a top 15 truck to a top 20 truck. We will look for him to have some place differential for him to be playable. Similar to his 25th to 18th last week. If he can replicate that or do slightly better he could be a solid play.
Ray Ciccarelli $7,200
If Ciccarelli makes the race he will only be viable if he qualifies in the rear. This price is way too high for what is essentially punt. He has had some good results in the right situations but with the strength of field and low DNF rate we can’t expect too much from him.
Jordan Anderson $7,000
Another driver who is impacted by the depth of field. He likely qualify towards the back of the pack and offer good place diff. If he does he is worth some ownership. Will likely be able to score a few positions by the end of the race but a top 20 would be wonderful.
Tyler Dippel $6,800
Great value here for Dippel. I believe he posses top 15 upside which is great for this price. The more place differential the better.
Cory Roper $6,700
Roper often shows up with good speed and has scored some solid finishes in 2019. However, this field is strong and his upside is to be questioned. I believe he has top 20 upside which if he qualifies 25th or worse could be enough.
Tanner Gray $6,600
Gray has finished 20th and 17th in his first two races but this is a big step up for him. He has run short tracks so far in his short stock racing career and a 1.5 mile track will be new to him. Truck will be good enough for a top 15 like teammates Lupton and Alfredo but I think he will be at a disadvantage to most his contemporaries. Tough play unless he offers obvious place diff.
Tyler Hill $6,400
Tyler is driving the #56 which is owned by the Hill family. This truck has been the best of the punts most of the races it has run. Again the problem is the depth of the field limiting the upside. Also this will be one of the trucks who will have to qualify their way in.
Codie Rohrbaugh $6,300
Not much to say here. I expect Codie to be able to qualify his way in but will have very limited overall upside in terms of DK. Worth a shot if he qualifies 25th or worse.
Josh Bilicki $6,100
Scheduled to driver the #34 this week. True punt vehicle here which will struggle to get inside the top 25. Will need help from the struggles of others to be worth much.
Josh Reaume $6,000
Reamue is in the #33 this week and is in a very similar situation to that of Bilicki. If we get a wreckfest, something that almost never happens here, he could pay off. Otherwise he will struggle to be of value.
Jesse Little $5,800
Little is still driving the #97 but has essentially sold the team and will be driving for someone else. He will need to qualify on time. He will have a shot at a top 20 and is a better play than the likes of Reaume and Bilicki in terms of finishing position upside. It will all come down to place diff.
Danny Bohn $5,600
Bohn is still piloting the #30 truck. This truck has had numerous strong runs on the 1.5 mile tracks this year. This truck can definitely score a top 15 but this style of racing is new to Bohn and we will have to see how he adapts. Strong truck.
Gus Dean $5,500
Dean is really going to struggle to break into the top 20 this week. His price is cheap enough that if he starts extremely deep in the field he could produce good value at this price.
Natalie Decker $5,300
Decker has a solid truck to drive and if she qualifies poorly is worth some ownership. She is always a crash threat but her last 3 races have been solid scoring 31.5, 26.5 and 30.5 respectively.
Jennifer Jo Cobb $5,200
I doubt she makes the race and if she does won’t do much at all
Joe Nemechek $5,100
Driving the #8 this week. This truck has been attempting all the races lately with horrible luck. Listed sponsors is a good thing. We will have to wait and see based on practice if this is a start and park situation.
Colby Howard $5,000
Howard is back in the #20 this week. Decent truck with a young inexperienced driver. Expect a top 25 but hope for more. In the right situation is a decent play at this cheap of a price.
Camden Murphy $4,900
Driving the #87 for Nemco this week. I expect this to be a start and park but lets pay attention to practice to find out.
Angela Ruch $4,800
Ruch is back in the #44 this week. She obviously isn’t the most talented but she can stay out of trouble and score a decent DK points day. She will likely start at the very back and be able to get some positive place diff. Another decent punt play.