Welcome back to the Shark Chronicles! This week’s chronicles delves into the winning Milly Maker lineups for the first nine weeks of the NFL season. The chronicles deconstructs weekly winning DraftKings Milly Maker lineups of the NFL 2019 season. Over the course of the NFL season this article builds off of the “Dossier on How to Win the DraftKings Milly Maker” I wrote and published prior to week one of the 2019 NFL season. You may access the VIP article here.
Deconstructing lineups that win massive tournaments such as the Milly Maker is not easy because we have to get into the mindset of the winning entrant and understand why the entrant utilized players in the lineup they used. The Shark Chronicles details that your dreams can become reality with the right tools, lineup construction methodologies, hard work, and gumption!
Little Bit about the DFSArmy
For those of you who are new to Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) or are looking for that one DFS site that can propel your play to new heights, then look no further, the DFSArmy is a top notch, second to none DFS site that can provide you with the tools to construct quality DFS lineups like the pros use. At the DFSArmy, we pride ourselves on the ability of our coaches to teach and provide our members with the methodologies, processes, tools and thought processes to become an equitable DFS player, who can grow their bankroll with proper bankroll management and turn your everyday Joe into a DFS Pro. DFSArmy covers all of the DFS sports from the main 4 (MLB, NBA, NFL & NHL) to PGA, MMA, Soccer and College FB and BB. Additionally, DFSArmy has its own Sportsbook team to help you with sports betting. The DFSArmy is an all-in-one Fantasy Sports and Sportsbook site that you can’t afford to not be a member.
Synopsis of Shark Chronicles
Lineup deconstruction is vital to DFS players success and it’s why all of the DFS provider sites have members writing about, but other sites articles lack substance and are simply generic. Take a look at those articles and draw your own conclusions. As the author of the Chronicles, I am trying to break the code and help my readers do the same. The Chronicles will showcase: the Vegas closing lines and how those Vegas lines contributed to the winning lineup construction, is it vital to max enter,
The Chronicles is different from the other DFS site’s lineup breakdown articles that you have access to online. The Shark Autopsy Report dives deeper than those other lineup deconstruction articles showcasing: the top ten winning lineups (position-by-position), the number of lineups the top 10 DFS players entered into the contest, the average amount spent by position in the winning lineup, top 10 player ownership percentages, and week-to-week salary distributions of the top 10 lineups to determine if there’s salary correlation amongst the top ten lineups, to help better predict winning lineup construction in future weeks.
What We Learned from the First 9 Weeks of Milly Maker Contests
Over the course of the first nine weeks of the NFL season, the winning Milly Maker lineups’ roster construction as detailed in the below image showcases that the average ownership percentage for QBs was 7.72%, of that average ownership 33% of the time a QB had field ownership in the Milly Maker of greater than 13%. The other 67% of the time, the average field ownership was 3.99% with no one QB in these weeks exceeding 6.9%.
There was no QB that the winning Milly Maker lineups rostered in more than one of the first nine weeks.
Over the first nine weeks of the season, the winning lineups utilized an RB in the flex 55.6% of the time, thereby there were 23 occurrences the RB was used in the first nine Milly Maker winning lineups. Of the 23 occurrences, 47.8% of the time the RBs field ownership percentage exceeded 20%, of the other 52.2% of the time the winning lineup utilized an RB in their lineup that had field ownership of 10% or below 67% of the time. The other 33% of the time the field ownership did not exceed 12.07%.
The most utilized RB in the winning Milly Maker lineups over the course of the first nine weeks was Christian McCaffrey at 44.4% of the time. Latavius Murray, Ezekiel Elliott, Chris Carson and Dalvin Cook were rostered in 22.2% of the time equally.
The winning lineups utilized the WR in the flex 44.4% of the time, thereby there were 31 occurrences the WR was used in the first nine Milly Maker winning lineups. Of the 31 occurrences, 9.6% of the time the winning lineup rostered a WR that had field ownership in excess of 20%. 38.7% of the time, the winning lineup rostered a WR that had field ownership between 10 to 16.58%, where there was 0% of WR utilized in the winning that had field ownership of 16.59% to 19.99%. 51.6% of the time, the winning lineup rostered a WR that had field ownership between 0 to 9.99%.
Mike Evans has been the most utilized WR in the winning Milly Maker lineups over the first nine weeks of the season at 33%. John Brown, Stefon Diggs and Chris Godwin have been utilized in 22.2% of the winning Milly Maker lineups.
On two separate weeks, the winning Milly Maker lineup rostered a TE that had field ownership in excess of 20% and in week that exceeded 37%. 33% of the time the winning lineup rostered a TE with field ownership between 10 to 17%. 44.4% of the time, the winning Milly Maker lineup rostered a TE with field ownership of less than 6%.
No winning Milly Maker lineup rostered a TE in the FLEX position during the first nine weeks of the NFL season.
The winning Milly Maker lineups rostered a defense whose salary was $3,700 or greater 55.6% of the time, and of this a defense with a salary of $4,300 was utilized 40% of the time. The Patriots defense was utilized the most at 33% of the first nine weeks, but the Patriots had an easy schedule over the first half of the season and their second half of the season will be much more difficult for the Patriots defense to meet value. The one defense in the second half that could make a push towards being a great defense to roster due to the second half schedule is the Browns. Looking back at the first nine Milly Maker lineups’ defenses, rostering the chalkier defenses helped those lineups win and we can glean ideologies from the first half to utilize in the second half of the season and know that matchups matter.
It can’t be stressed enough, you need to add to your repertoire as a DFS player and revisit the prior week’s winning lineups, not just for the Milly Maker and Sunday Million contests, but all of the contests you entered to see how the winning lineups were constructed. Additionally, you should be looking at your own lineups to determine WHY certain plays in your lineups went off and WHY other plays did not. This will ultimately make you a better player, but it will help you determine trends you may not have otherwise noticed if you were not reviewing over past week’s lineups.
Do Game Start Times Matter
If you want the most comprehensive breakdown of how closing Vegas lines predictively determines future results, read my “Dossier on How to Win the DraftKings Milly Maker” in conjunction with each week’s Chronicles article.
As I dove into the first nine weeks of the NFL season, I started to look at how the winning Milly Maker lineups were constructed around game kickoff times of the main slate. What I found by position was very intriguing! Over the course of the first nine weeks of the season, the game start times for the QB was split nearly 50/50 between 1 PM and 4:05 PM start times, and zero times a QB in a 4:25 PM game was utilized in the winning Milly Maker lineup.
The RB and WR position’s kickoff times were mind-blowing for the first half of the season. 70% of the time the winning Milly Maker lineups in the first half of the season rostered a RB whose kickoff time was 1 PM and 17% with kickoff time of 4:05 PM and 13% with 4:25 PM kickoff time. 65% of the time the winning Milly Maker in the first half of the season rostered a WR whose kickoff time was 1 PM and 23% with kickoff time of 4:05 PM and 13% with 4:25 PM kickoff time.
What a massive variance with respect to kickoff times across the RB and WR positions, as compared with the other lineup positions.
For the QB, TE, and Defense the start time isn’t as crucial to a player being utilized in the winning Milly Maker lineup, BUT for RBs and WRs, it pays to play RBs and WRs in the 1 PM games over that of the 4:05 and 4:25 PM games.
There were 5 weeks where the winning Milly Maker lineup utilized an RB in the FLEX position, and of those 5 weeks, 60% of the time two RBs were rostered from the 1 PM games and one RB rostered from a 4:25 PM games. The other 40% of the time, two RBs were rostered from the 1 PM games and one RB rostered from the 4:05 PM games. When determining whether you’ll utilize a 3 RB roster construction, it will pay to utilize two RBs from the 1 PM games and 1 RB from the 4 PM games instead of all 3 RBs from 1 PM games or 4 PM games or 2 RBs from the 4 PM games and one RB from the 1 PM games.
Closing Vegas Lines for the QBs for Winning Milly Maker Lineups
Above are the games the winning Milly Maker lineups that rostered a QB from and outside of the week 1 matchup with a game total of 40.5, each game’s game total was highly projected at 46.5 or greater. The sweet spot of the spread was -3 to -7. The cheat code over the first nine weeks was game stacking around the game that included Tampa Bay as the opponent, and this is to be expected because Tampa Bay is funnel defense funneling fantasy points to the WR position as they have a stout defense against the run.
Closing Vegas Lines for the RBs for Winning Milly Maker Lineups
Above are the games the winning Milly Maker lineups that rostered an RB from and eleven times an RB was rostered in a game with a game total projected to be 45 and greater. Nineteen times a RB was rostered in a game with a spread of -7 and below.
Closing Vegas Lines for the WRs for Winning Milly Maker Lineups
Above are the games the winning Milly Maker lineups that rostered a WR from and thirteen times a WR was rostered in a game with a game total projected to be 45 and greater. Thirteen times a WR was rostered in a game with a spread of -5 and below.
Closing Vegas Lines for the TEs for Winning Milly Maker Lineups
Above are the games the winning Milly Maker lineups that rostered a TE from and six times a TE was rostered in a game with a game total projected to be 45 and greater. Four times a TE was rostered in a game with a spread of -5 and below.
Stacking is the Most Advantageous Strategy
To make serious gains on your competitors and move up the leader-boards, you must learn how to construct lineups utilizing an artful stacking process! This doesn’t mean that you stack every game on the slate, but to choose those games you have researched and believe may go off on that given slate. Do we need to go crazy with our stacking combinations with game stacks and multiple stacks within one lineup (what I refer to as Stacks of High Society) on most slates? Maybe, but maybe not.
Stacking proves once again to hold true in the winning Milly Maker lineups over the course of the first nine weeks of the NFL season. Of the nine weeks, 55.6% of the weeks a game stack was used. Stacking will continue to be a part of the winning Milly Maker lineups, and should be a part of your lineup build process. In fact, game stacking is becoming ever more prevalent within the winning Milly Maker lineups. Over the course of the first nine weeks of the NFL season, 44.4% of the time the winning Milly Maker lineup game stacked the game that included Tampa Bay as the opponent. No one winning Milly Maker lineup that game stacked a game that included Tampa Bay was the opponents running back part of the winning lineup, nor was Tampa Bay’s running back.
Game Theory
Game theory is the analysis of strategies for dealing with competitive situations where the outcome of a participant’s choice of action depends critically on the actions of other participants.
What wins the Milly Maker when a player explodes the prior week? FADE THAT PLAYER! Then when that player duds and entrants get off of them the following week of a dud, top DFS players attack and load up on them after a dud week.
As DFS players we are strategists, but what separates the top DFS strategists from the pack is the development of risk diversification and strategy thinking.
At DFS Army we are the best DFS content provider in the industry for a reason, we have amazing coaches, content, and tools for you to build lineups, but that is just your starting point.
To become a master strategist, you have to be open to doing research that exceeds that of the content provided to you and more than anything else, you have to take calculated risks (risk diversification) to create artfully crafted lineups that will win top heavy GPPs! There’s simply no other way around it. In the Milly you need to think differently and fade crowd think!!!
When crafting your GPP lineups and determining the stacks you want to utilize, look at the types of defenses the QB and offensive weapons are going against, and determine what spots are most advantageous.
Time and time again a slate will not play out as the DFS pundits believe it to play out! It’s advisable to utilize the information from the pundits and mold that information with your research for solid lineup construction.
Fortune Favors the Bold
Calculated risks are what win GPPs and they may be bold to the pundits who weren’t on them originally, but if you believe in your research and can substantiate the bold play based upon your research, then is it really a bold play? Maybe it is the most logical play that is the diamond in the rough!
Tools to Utilize Weekly
I utilize every tool available to me from the DFSArmy’s vault of successful tools and coaches. I develop my own player projections and system that I utilize in the construction of my cash and GPP lineups. In addition to my proprietary NFL GPP model, I mainly utilize the following two DFSArmy tools I utilize the most in my thought processes and research of each slate is the FFootballGeek’s NFL Weekly Geeks Picks and the coaches notes. The other tools I utilize are the WR vs. CB breakdown chart (by the way, I develop this tool on a weekly basis), DFSArmy’s Research Station, FFootballGeek’s Early Look Vegas Lines Podcast, the Wolfpack podcast and the Player’s Club Podcast.
To My Readers
I want to thank my weekly readers for reading the Shark Autopsy Report Chronicles this NFL season, it means a great deal to me and the DFSArmy!
As the chronicles article matures over the course of the NFL 2019 season and more data is captured, the article with evolve into a dynamic tool that you should utilize as part of your research arsenal to make you a better DFS player.
To conclude this installment of the Shark Autopsy Report, the DFS Army was started based on the concept that bring high-level tools, projections, and information to average players would allow them to compete on a level playing field with the DFS pros that have been dominating the industry for years. Check out our full Wall of Wins to see countless other screenshots from regular players utilizing DFS Army tools and advice to take down 6 figure prizes on a regular basis. Sign up as a DFS Army VIP today to take your game to the next level and start competing like a pro.