Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! We’re back at Texas for our final “traditional” 1.5-mile race of the season, which also serves as the second race of the round of 8 for the playoffs. Unfortunately, I got called in to help at work twice last night/very early this morning, so this article is coming much later than I had hoped. With that in mind, we don’t have much time to waste, so let’s get to it!
Texas Motor Speedway
Like I mentioned, this is the final “traditional” 1.5-mile track of the season (Miami is also a 1.5-mile track but it’s a different beast than these other ones), so there are a handful of drivers that should hopefully pop in your head. If not, that’s fine. That’s what I’m here for! (hint: Truex and Buescher are two of the biggest beneficiaries)
Lineup construction / correlation
We’re looking at 334 laps today, which could easily require two dominators in all formats on both sites. We had a solo performance last week, and while they are hard to predict, I think it’s safe to say we won’t have that again this week. With that in mind, I would look for two dominators on both sites to fill up the majority of your lineups, though you could sprinkle around some solo dominator lineups just in case.
Aside from that, I like something balanced for cash games, and balanced, stars & scrubs, or something heavy on the studs/value studs for GPP.
Hybrids
As usual, we’ll start with the hybrids, and this week’s flavor is Truex. He ran away with the race last week, and could certainly do it again here, and starting 17th gives him a huge safety net. In other words, start your cash lineups here.
Logano and Blaney are my favorite GPP pivots here, followed by Busch, Elliott, and then Larson. Busch, of course, is a step or two above Elliott/Larson, but all of them are worth having exposure to this week. They all start deep enough that they can be mixed & matched however you see fit, but I really like the idea of combining Logano and Blaney for a Penske stack (and taking Elliott with some Hendrick cars).
Dominators
Harvick is the easy choice here, and you can default to him in cash games as well. He shouldn’t have any problem securing the early lead and leading most (if not all) of stage 1, and if they get the job done on pit road, he could see a large chunk of stage 2 as well. A good idea here would be to combine Harvick with somebody who is a known late-race dominator, like say…Truex, Keselowski, Hamlin, or even Logano/Blaney/Elliott. I wouldn’t go crazy stacking all of these guys, of course. Try to take just one per lineup if you’re stacking them with Harvick.
Studs
Hey, look at that! For once, the studs are the highlight of the week, and there are some great options in here. Bowyer and Byron are my favorite all-purpose drivers, and Johnson is right up there with them (you could lean GPP with him though since he may not be as popular as the other two).
Bowman is a fantastic pivot, and honestly, could be used as a dominator (especially as a late-race option to stack with Harvick), because he has 50-100 lead lap upside like he’s shown at Kansas and Chicago. Remember, Texas isn’t too different!
Jones comes last, but even though he looks like fade material, even he has some use (told you this group was good). I don’t think he needs to be used as a direct pivot to Harvick, as I don’t really see him taking the early lead, but I could see him leading 50-100 laps at random points in the race on his way to a top-5. With that in mind, you could stack him with Harvick, but I would be very careful. Don’t go overboard, but if you’re looking for a way to get bold and still have a realistic chance (albeit low) of taking down a GPP, that could be a way to go.
Value studs
Another solid group, the value studs are led by Buescher and Newman again this week. Remember, 1.5-mile tracks are where we play Buescher, and even though he’s not starting around 25th or worse, 20th is still enough to work with, so go ahead and cram in him wherever you can. Both drivers have top-15 floors and top-10 upside, but man did they do Buescher dirty with that salary…especially on FanDuel! $5,000 is waaaay too cheap for him!
After that, Menard looks very solid and has a hefty ceiling (starting 31st), and the rest are basically all the same play. DiBenedetto, Almirola, Suarez, and Stenhouse are all starting at (or slightly above) their ceilings, so I don’t mind fading all of them on DraftKings and shuffling them around on FanDuel instead. I would get equal shares to all of them with the exception of Stenhouse; you could go slightly lower on him.
Austin is last. He just hasn’t been showing up this season, but starting 21st gives him upside if he can figure something out and finish in the top-15 or so. He’d be my DraftKings option here, where those others look better on FanDuel (of course, Buescher, Newman, and Menard look fantastic on both sites, so get more exposure to those three).
Value
The three guys I like the most here are McDowell, Ragan, and Preece..in no particular order. I would probably default to McDowell in cash due to the starting position and price, but Preece should be fine too if you can afford him. If not, be sure to have him and Ragan in GPP, as they represent the drivers with the best chance of being in the winning lineup out of this group.
After that, I would say something like…Wallace, Nemechek, LaJoie/Ty/Hemric. I like Wallace/Nemechek quite a bit more than the other three, so I recommend having more exposure to them (I don’t mind just fading the last three, at least on DraftKings…they could be useful on FanDuel, I suppose).
Punts
I don’t love any of the punts, but I guess if I had to make a stand, I would say Chastain since he’s starting 35th and has a better car than the others here. I don’t think we need him in cash since McDowell is so cheap, so lean GPP here.
As for the others, I don’t mind just fading them, but if you go with a super top-heavy lineup, you might have to take one. In that case, I guess I would say Cassill (since he’s good at finishing and has been decent, despite his slow car) or Houff. The rest…meh! Fade ’em!!
Stacks
There are two stacks I really like here; Penske and Hendrick.
For Penske, you can mix and match Logano/Blaney/Keselowski however you see fit, but I would probably limit myself to two per lineup (it might be hard for all three to pay off at once). I would lean more towards the first two, but do not sleep on Keselowski! He tends to have his massive scores when nobody is on him, which could just as easily be today as any other day of the year, so don’t forget to get him!
For Hendrick, you could mix Byron and Johnson with either Elliott or Bowman. I would probably limit myself to three here, and wouldn’t be too heavy on pairing Elliott and Bowman together. Basically, I like Byron + Johnson + Elliott or Bowman best.
And of course, JGR has been super strong, but big stacks might not be best here either. Truex and Kyle Busch can be matched however you want, and then you can bring in Hamlin or Jones to make a 3-man stack.
Pivots
The studs are easily my favorite group this week, followed by the hybrids, value studs, and value drivers. I would focus mostly on those drivers, and less so on the dominators and punts.
Closing thoughts
I don’t have much time for a closing this week. Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!