Restricor plate racing with rain in the forecast. Yikes. Look – it’s really hard to predict plate tracks. All we can do is talk strategy, and how different drivers fit into that. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
A couple of notes that I always like to note on restrictior plate tracks:
- Most importantly, the restrictor plates. On track, the cars have about the same horsepower – meaning they will be nose to tail all day. This means drivers who usually aren’t relevant get made relevant, and if there is a crash – it’s going to end the day of 3-15 drivers in an instant.
- It’s very seldom that the optimal lineup maxes that salary cap. Whacky lineups galore.
- I think the most important thing this week will be playing at least five differential plays. Drivers in the back have the benefit of more fast laps, since the cars infront of them are cutting the air for them.
Now regardless of what strategy you play this week – plate tracks have a DNF rate of around 20%. Meaning every driver in the field this Sunday will have a one in five chance of not completing all the laps. This makes just about any strategy volatile. With that in mind, understanding the correct optimal place differential strategy certainly gives us an edge.
Rather than give you top plays, fades, and values, I am going to give you my thoughts on each driver starting 25th or worse, and allow you to create a strategy with that in mind. Bolded drivers are drivers I consider top plays. Keep in mind that other drivers starting better than 25th aren’t unplayable, just a little more volatile.
25. Landon Cassill – Cassill is a good driver, and can certainly outrun his eqipment, but I don’t love him here. A lot would have to go right in order for Landon to hit the optimal, and I think there are better options.
26. Kyle Busch – There are very few tracks at the world where Kyle Busch starting 26th isnt a lock – and this is one of them. Busch is absolutely in play this weekend, but his history at Talledega, especially recently, isn’t stellar. Combined with his struggled over the last couple weeks, I am comfortable being a little underweight on KB.
27. Darrell “Bubba” Wallace Jr. – Bubba Wallace has finished 15th, 17th, and 28th at Talledega so far in his cup career, and 15th, 2nd, 14th, 38th, 15th at Daytona. All this to say he has pretty good surviability on the plate tracks, but lacks a super high upside. I think Bubba is certainly in play, but by no means a top play.
28. Brendan Gaughan – Brendan Gaughan is an enigma. He constantly takes underwhelming equipment and performs well on plate tracks, in his past four tries at Dega, he has gone +21, +16, +8 and +16 in terms of place differential and I expect more of the same this week. He is one of my best plays this week.
29. Daniel Hemric – Hemric has run just a single race at Dega in his Cup career, where he started and finished 5th. His Daytona stats are a little less encouraging, but agaisnt a 29th starting spot, I am comfortable playing Hemric at a track where he has shown great instincts.
30. Ryan Preece – Another driver who has but a single Dega run in his Cup career, Preece started 30th here earlier in the year and finished 3rd! It was no fluke either, he ran very well all race. His 2019 Daytona runs resulted in an 8th and less encouraging 32nd, but Preece has proved to be a comfortable plate racer. A tremendous play.
31. Matt DiBenedetto – I anticipate DiBenedetto will be a popular pick this weekend, but I am not so sure. Well he has had occasional good runs at Daytona, his Talladega runs have left a lot to be desired. With a career best of just 18th, I am more comfortable to go under on DiBenedetto until we see a little more consistency at Dega. That said, you should by no means fade Matty D, he just isn’t a top play among these drivers.
32. Parker Kligerman – I like Kilgerman as a plate race driver, but this car and team have struggled that last couple tries. 27th, 31st and 15th place plate finishes for this ride in 2019 doesn’t bode well for Kligerman this weekend. I think you can be a slight bit under on Kilgerman.
33. Corey Lajoie – Lajoie has showed a marked improvement when it comes to plate racing, boasting finishes of 6th, 11th and 18th thus far in 2019. Agaisnt a 33rd place starting spot I will take that all day. Love this play.
34. Ross Chastain – Chastain has shown flashed of brilliance in plate races thus far in his career, though I fear he is being held back by his Premium Motorsports equipment. Alas, he has an average finish of 25th in this car, and agaisnt a 34th place starting spot that gives us a pretty solid floor. I wouldn’t expect much from Chastain, but I am comfortable being slightly over on him.
35. Blake Jones – I am always nervous playing drivers who are making their plate race debuts, but I am actually fairly excited about this race for Blake Jones. This car won the Daytona race in the summer (though it was flukey as could be), and has plate finishes of 22nd and 32nd. Blake Jones also holds an Arca win at Dega. I really like this play.
36. Joey Gase – I don’t mind Joey Gase here, but I don’t trust this car at all. It DNQ’d for the Daytona 500 and hasnt attempted a plate race since. I may sprinkle a little Gase in, but that is it.
37. Austin Theriault – We fade Rick Ware Racing.
38. Reed Sorenson – Sorenson finished 18th in this car back in April agaisnt a 37th starting spot. For better or for worse, I trust this car to go a full race and Sorenson is certainly good enough to make it to the end.
39. Spencer Boyd – We fade Rick Ware Racing.
40. Denny Hamlin – Not much to say here. The only risk is if the engine gremlins that cost them their qualifying lap don’t get fixed. Alas, this is the lock of all locks.
So there it is folks, use that to start your research. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock, and thats what it will be all about this week. Strategy. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.