High banks and high speeed! We are back to Dover to open round two of the NASCAR playoffs. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
Top Plays
Kyle Larson – Larson rolls off P2, but he has by far the fastest car in the field. Dover is a track where Larson is consistently performing well, and I he has never had a car like this. Hamlin may lead for a bit of this race, but I fully expect Larson to take control, and maintain control, of this race.
Kyle Busch – Dover is a tumultuous track for Kyle, where he usually competes for a top five OR ends up in the fence. However, starting 18th means we have to give him exposure. His practice speeds were forgettable, but I fully expect his team to get it turned around by the end of stage one, especially when his teammates have considerably more speed. Kyle Busch should compete for a win.
Kevin Harvick – When it comes to Dover, there is Harvick and then there is everyone else. He has dominated this race time and time again, and while he has struggled to close the show – alot of his poor finishes here can be chalked up to variance. I believe him to have the second fastest car (next to Larson) but his Dover prowess makes him an equally viable play. I would be hesitant to pair him with Larson, but I think its high probability that either Larson or Harvick ends up in the optimal.
Clint Bowyer – Bowyer has been a ALMOST fast enough just about all year, and well he doesn’t have breakneck speed this week either – he is in a perfect position to provide tremendous value for us this week. For just $8600 you get an A level driver and car starting 17th at a track where they have performed well in the past. While Bowyer has been streaky at Dover, the top tens have been much more common that the 20th and 30th place finishes. I think Bowyer is a top five threat and could even compete for a win.
Worth Noting
He doesn’t really fit in as a top play or a value play (value usually means <8000) but Bowman, who performed well here in the Spring and has considerable momentum rolling into Dover 2, is a really fantastic play.
Values
Jimmie Johnson- And well Bowman doesn’t fit as a value play, Jimmie Johnson does at $7800. It may seem like the days of Dover dominance for Johnson are far in the past, but remember he DOMINATED and won at Dover in 2017. 2015 and twice in 2014. It seems like the Hendrick squad all brought fast cars this weekend, and I truly believe Jimmie can get back to his old self here. He starts 11th, but has top five speed and is without question a top two Dover driver.
Austin Dillon – Dillon starts 27th this week at a track where he has an average running position of 18th. He is price way down at 6900, which means he doesn’t have to do much to make value. I am not impressed with his speed, but I think the circumstances make him very playable.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr – Short concrete tracks are RSJs forte, and despite all the doom and gloom surrounding this team right now, Stenhouse looks poised to have a great run this weekend. He has decent short run speed and good long run speed, and even though he starts 19th (which is a little high), his average running position is 15th. He has top 10 potential and could run top 5 with the right circumstance. Stenhouse is a good a play.
Daniel Hemric – I’ll call this Punt of the Week, but I think this is a pretty good play. Hemrics RCR machine seems to have top 20 speed against a 31st starting space. Hemric hasn’t impressed all that much in 2019, but he has remained consistent and has a great ability to stay out of trouble. If this race devolves into chaos he could easily slip into the top 15.
So there it is folks. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.