Welcome back to the Shark Chronicles! The chronicles deconstructs weekly winning DraftKings Milly Maker lineups of the NFL 2019 season. Over the course of the NFL season this article builds off of the “Dossier on How to Win the DraftKings Milly Maker” I wrote and published prior to week one of the 2019 NFL season. You may access the VIP article here. Deconstructing lineups that win massive tournaments such as the Milly Maker is not easy because we have to get into the mindset of the winning entrant and understand why the entrant utilized players in the lineup they used. As the author of the Shark Chronicles, I am here to tell you that your dreams can become reality with the right tools, lineup construction methodologies, hard work, and gumption!
FFootballGeek interviewed BClinks after his amazing Week 3 FD Milly win and taking down $1M top prize, you can listen to the interview here. The interview delves into Bobby’s thought process for the slate and how he got onto certain plays that encompassed his million dollar lineup!
Little Bit about the DFSArmy
For those of you who are new to Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) or are looking for that one DFS site that can propel your play to new heights, then look no further, the DFSArmy is a top notch, second to none DFS site that can provide you with the tools to construct quality DFS lineups like the pros use. At the DFSArmy, we pride ourselves on the ability of our coaches to teach and provide our members with the methodologies, processes, tools and thought processes to become an equitable DFS player, who can grow their bankroll with proper bankroll management and turn your everyday Joe into a DFS Pro. DFSArmy covers all of the DFS sports from the main 4 (MLB, NBA, NFL & NHL) to PGA, MMA, Soccer and College FB and BB. Additionally, DFSArmy has its own Sportsbook team to help you with sports betting. The DFSArmy is an all-in-one Fantasy Sports and Sportsbook site that you can’t afford to not be a member.
Synopsis of Shark Chronicles
Lineup deconstruction is vital to DFS’ers success and it’s why all of the DFS provider sites have members writing about, but other sites articles lack substance and are simply generic. Take a look at those articles and draw your own conclusions. As the author of the Chronicles, I am trying to break the code and help my readers do the same. The Chronicles will showcase: the Vegas closing lines and how those Vegas lines contributed to the winning lineup construction, is it vital to max enter,
The Chronicles is different from the other DFS site’s lineup breakdown articles that you have access to online. The Shark Autopsy Report dives deeper than those other lineup deconstruction articles showcasing: the top ten winning lineups (position-by-position), the number of lineups the top 10 DFS players entered into the contest, the average amount spent by position in the winning lineup, top 10 player ownership percentages, and week-to-week salary distributions of the top 10 lineups to determine if there’s salary correlation amongst the top ten lineups, to help better predict winning lineup construction in future weeks.
DraftKings $3.75M Milly Maker Contest
The Milly Maker contest is a true tale of the tape contest that everyone in the industry knows about, discusses and writes about extensively throughout the course of the week. Many people think that lineup construction to win the Milly Maker tourney is all about constructing the most contrarian lineup possible, sometimes that is the case, but most of the times that is not the case.
As DFS players, fish and sharks alike, we are so attracted to the light shining down from the DFS Universe of the $1M dollar first place prize in the DraftKings Milly Maker contest, and we pump a multitude of our bankrolls into these contests annually. Because of this, I understand why DFS sites are analyzing these winning lineups. It should be part of your repertoire as a DFS player to revisit the prior week’s winning lineups, not just for the Milly Maker and Sunday Million contests, but all of the contests you entered to see how the winning lineups were constructed. Additionally, you should be looking at your own lineups to determine WHY certain plays in your lineups went off and WHY other plays did not. This will ultimately make you a better player, but it will help you determine trends you may not have otherwise noticed if you were not reviewing over past week’s lineups.
Week 6 Milly Maker Winning Lineup
Vegas Closing Lines
If you want the most comprehensive breakdown of how closing Vegas lines predictively determines future results, read my “Dossier on How to Win the DraftKings Milly Maker” in conjunction with each week’s Chronicles article.
The winning lineup was constructed utilizing a singular non-traditional stack of QB/TE stack of Matt Ryan at QB and Austin Hooper at TE in the Atlanta Falcons v. Arizona Cardinals game. This was a game that was highly targeted in week 6. The lineup was not a game stack nor did the entrant run back with a Cardinals player. This is the third time this season that a QB/TE stack was utilized in the winning Milly Maker lineup. There was no secondary stack within the winning Milly Maker lineup, making this a traditional lineup. This game finished 14.5 actual total points higher than Vegas projected the total points in the game to finish, and the spread finished 2 points lower than the projected spread Vegas projected at closing of the lines.
The highest projected Vegas line game was the Kansas City v. Houston game played very closely to the Vegas closing lines projected total amount of points for the game by a ½ point. The spread that Vegas closing lines projected to be in Kansas City’s favor didn’t finish in that manner and Houston ended up winning by a TD. The winning Milly Maker lineup utilized one player from this game, Carlos Hyde, but the winning Milly Maker lineup outside of the Ryan / Hooper stack incorporated plays that were in good spots and rode them to the Milly.
Stacking is the Most Advantageous Strategy
To make serious gains on your competitors and move up the leaderboards, you must learn how to construct lineups utilizing an artful stacking process! This doesn’t mean that you stack every game on the slate, but to choose those games you have researched and believe may go off on that given slate. Do we need to go crazy with our stacking combinations with game stacks and multiple stacks within one lineup (what I refer to as Stacks of High Society) on most slates? Maybe, but maybe not.
Stacking proves once again to hold true in the winning Milly Maker lineup and it continues to showcase that you must stack up your lineups in these tournaments.
Game Theory
Game theory is the analysis of strategies for dealing with competitive situations where the outcome of a participant’s choice of action depends critically on the actions of other participants.
What wins the Milly Maker when a player explodes the prior week? FADE THAT PLAYER! Then when that player duds and entrants get off of them the following week of a dud, top DFS players attack and load up on them after a dud week.
As DFS players we are strategists, but what separates the top DFS strategists from the pack is the development of risk diversification and strategy thinking.
At DFS Army we are the best DFS content provider in the industry for a reason, we have amazing coaches, content, and tools for you to build lineups, but that is just your starting point. Every Single Day, DFSArmy members are winning BIG, just look at one of our members winnings from Week 7 Thursday KC v. DEN showdown:
To become a master strategist, you have to be open to doing research that exceeds that of the content provided to you and more than anything else, you have to take calculated risks (risk diversification) to create artfully crafted lineups that will win top heavy GPPS! There’s simply no other way around it. In the Milly you need to think differently and fade crowd think!!!
When crafting your GPP lineups and determining the stacks you want to utilize, look at the types of defenses the QB and offensive weapons are going against, and determine what spots are most advantageous.
Time and time again a slate will not play out as the DFS pundits believe it to play out! It’s advisable to utilize the information from the pundits and mold that information with your research for solid lineup construction.
Mining for Defensive Diamonds to Achieve Glory
Finding a defense that flies under the radar but is in a highly equitable spot to cash in and lead to +EV for your lineups is something you can accomplish with research. In the Dossier, I provided you with the framework to find the defensive diamonds in an ever so vital and variant position.
The art of roster construction reigns true on every slate, and there are defensive diamonds on EVERY slate. Honestly it is not all about a scientific approach to constructing the winning Milly Maker lineup, it takes as much art as it does science to create a lineup that will be in the top 10! Research and Quantitative Analysis are the backbone of my DFS being and I love seeing those lineups that are hindered by a defense that is the highest priced on the slate going up against a Miami!
When looking for defenses, matchups play a significant part in how well a defense will do on a given slate. Does the defense get pressures on the QB, what pace do they play at and does that pace correlate with their opponent, is the opponent o-line allowing a lot of pressures as pressure leads to sacks and interceptions, and is the team’s corners playing against inferior wide receivers whose route running is suspect and the corner can jump the route and get an interception. These are all factors that weigh on a defense performing well or not.
Time and time again, under the radar defenses can absolutely win you a Milly Maker and this reigns true each and every weekly slate, and week 4 will be no different!
Fortune Favors the Bold
Don’t take this the wrong way, but those that believe they can only win the Milly Maker is by creating a lineup that is ultra-contrarian, you’d be flat out wrong! Calculated risks are what win GPPs and they may be bold to the pundits who weren’t on them originally, but if you believe in your research and can substantiate the bold play based upon your research, then is it really a bold play? Maybe it is the most logical play that is the diamond in the rough!
Tools I Utilize Weekly
I utilize every tool available to me from the DFSArmy’s vault of successful tools and coaches. I develop my own player projections and system that I utilize in the construction of my cash and GPP lineups. In addition to my proprietary NFL GPP model, I mainly utilize the following two DFSArmy tools I utilize the most in my thought processes and research of each slate is the FFootballGeek’s NFL Weekly Geeks Picks and the coaches notes. The other tools I utilize are the WR vs. CB breakdown chart (by the way, I develop this tool on a weekly basis), DFSArmy’s Research Station, FFootballGeek’s Early Look Vegas Lines Podcast, the Wolfpack podcast and the Player’s Club Podcast.
Entries to Glory
The number of times I have heard from many in the industry, most are fishes in the seas of sharks, that you need to enter the max number of lineups (150 max) to win the Milly Maker, doesn’t make me pity them it makes me want to educate them further. Now for some education, during the 2018 NFL season 94.1% (16 of 17 weeks) of the time the winning Milly Maker entrant DID NOT max enter the Milly Maker contest! Now fast forward to current, and last week the winning entrant of the Milly Maker did not max enter the Milly Maker, the entrant only entered 4 lineups into the Milly Maker. Can you win with less than 150 entries, the answer is unequivocally YES and in fact time after time this reigns true! Can you win with a single bullet, YES YOU CAN AND I”VE SEEN IT DONE, but it’s much harder.
To My Weekly Readers
I want to thank my weekly readers for reading the Shark Autopsy Report Chronicles this NFL season, it means a great deal to me and the DFSArmy!
As the chronicles article matures over the course of the NFL 2019 season and more data is captured, the article with evolve into a dynamic tool that you should utilize as part of your research arsenal to make you a better DFS player.
To conclude this installment of the Shark Autopsy Report, the DFS Army was started based on the concept that bring high-level tools, projections, and information to average players would allow them to compete on a level playing field with the DFS pros that have been dominating the industry for years. Check out our full Wall of Wins to see countless other screenshots from regular players utilizing DFS Army tools and advice to take down 6 figure prizes on a regular basis. Sign up as a DFS Army VIP today to take your game to the next level and start competing like a pro!