Welcome to the Cup Series Setup for Fanduel. Here we will be breaking down the best plays for Fanduel purposes. My name is RyanLarkin88 and you can follow me @Larkin8 on twitter. This week the Cup Series is at Talladega. The VIP Member Research Station and Domination Station will be ready to go for you to help create your lineups so be sure to check that out. Also, jump in the NASCAR VIP Slack and get some great insight into this weeks race.
Top Tier Plays
Brad Keselowski & Joey Logano
For FD we definitely would like to get some place differential points but most importantly we need guys that can finish inside the top 5 and win. There is no duo that is better at Talladega than Keselowski and Logano. They each have three wins here in the last 10 races and Keselowski actually has 5 wins overall. Logano has led the most laps over the last five Dega races at 176 and Keselowski is 3rd with 90. Logano and Keselowski are in a situation where they must score stage points and finish well in regards to the playoffs so look for them to run at the front most of the race.
Denny Hamlin
Hamlin starts 40th for this race meaning nobody will offer better place differential and overall upside. Of course with the threat of a wreck at any time he isn’t the slam dunk play he would be at normal tracks. Still as a driver who has finished top 15 in 5 of the last 6 Dega races and with elite place diff points at his disposal he is the most obvious play of the race. The three Gibbs cars are a good bit clear of the playoff bubble so there is an expectation that they could be patient and ride towards the back waiting on the chaos to unfold. This could make them much safer plays than most. Hamlin will be chalk but he might be necessary chalk this week.
Kyle Busch
Busch is such a creator of habit. He has weird negative trends that always seem to defy logic. His average finish in the last five spring Talledega races is 8.0. In his last five fall races, aka races in the playoffs, his average finish is 26.8. There seems to be something to him pressing and getting into trouble in the playoffs, something we have seen as of late this year as well. The good news is that he is in a solid place point wise, 48 points above the cut line. Like teammate Hamlin he should be more cautious this race and look to avoid the carnage. Oh and he starts 26th meaning he has great place differential upside.
Value Plays
Aric Almirola
Almirola has been one of the best Superspeedway racers for some time now. He has finished top 10 in the last six Talladega races including winning this race last fall. He starts 5th so there is a lot of risk here given the volatility of this race but at low ownership he could be the type of play the separates you from the rest.
Ricky Stenhouse
Yet another driver that I don’t care starts too high. He will start 7th so he also has a horrible floor if he were to get caught up in an accident but he also has the ability to win this race. He has 4 top 5s in his last 6 Talladega races including a win in 2017. Ricky does not care about making enemies and will do anything and everything to get the win. He is leaving Roush at the end of the year and is in need of a ride for next year. I like that extra motivation for a driver who is fantastic here.
Kurt Busch
Kurt starts 24th so unlike the other two drivers he does offer place differential as well as a much safer floor. He has finished 14th or better in 9 of the last 10 Talladega race and top 10 in 7 of those races. Kurt does a fantastic job of making sure he is there at the end to compete for the win. He is THE core play and is great in all formats.
Low Tier/Punts
Ryan Preece
Preece finished 8th in the Daytona 500 and followed that up with a 3rd here back in May. He starts 30th meaning he has fantastic upside. He is a driver who works hard to keep is cars out of trouble and not tear up equipment as well so I like his odds of staying out of trouble compared to others.
Matt Dibenedetto
Matty D comes in with the best paint scheme this weekend making him the early favorite. Besides that he starts 31st this week. This car/driver combo has been fantastic on the Superspeedways this year including being the most dominating car during the Daytona 500. He is riskier than a lot of guys due to his aggressive nature on these tracks but he might also pair up with Toyota teammates Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Truex Jr and relax until late. Either way he has top 5 upside and elite place diff ability.
All the punts
This is a blanket statement but for good reason. All those back end drivers that we normally ignore are some of the best plays here. With a ultra high DNF rate plus many more drivers who finish laps down with damage these drivers have really good upside with added place differential points. If any of these drivers score a top 15 they are elite plays. Examples of what we are looking for from last race here are Gaughan 29th to 8th, Lajoie 36th to 11th and Sorenson 37th to 18th is pretty strong as well. There almost always a couple of these drivers who crush at these races and to score the optimal lineup you will need to hit on the right ones.
This will conclude this edition of The Monster Energy Cup Series Setup for Fanduel. If you would like to reach out and talk NASCAR Follow me on twitter @Larkin8 and join me as well as our other DFS Army NASCAR contributors (Brady Miller, Taco, and NillyJay) in the NASCAR coaching channels.