Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! We’re back at Martinsville this week for the final short track race of the season (Phoenix is close, but hey, a mile isn’t short!), which will also kick off the final elimination round of the 2019 playoffs. We get three races to knock out four drivers, and with as tight as the bubble is now, nobody is safe. For now, let’s dig in and see what we have to work with here!
As always, if you haven’t already, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite, as this article will directly tie into it. If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.
Martinsville Speedway
As I mentioned, we’re back to the short track world this weekend, and with that is the last of the giant 500 lap races. With that many laps and several good differential plays, you can expect this one to be a high-scoring affair. Be sure to put that lineup projector to good use!
While this track isn’t as fast as Bristol (and generally less chaotic), the fact that it’s a late-season playoff race should add some extra drama. With that in mind, I can’t say I love cash games this weekend, but they’re doable if you do your part and eat some chalk. Keep those pivots in GPP!
Playoff picture
We have 8 drivers left, and they’re a lot closer this time around than we’ve seen in the other rounds. Basically, nobody is safe now, and one bad finish (i.e. wreck, blown engine, etc) can quickly put somebody in a very, very bad situation.
Technically, nobody is in a “must-win” situation now, and anybody could drive their way to the finals without a win, but you can bet those four below the cutoff line are feeling the pressure, and those up top will be looking for a dominant performance (and win) so they can coast through Texas and Phoenix. That would also be huge for the three underdogs (Chase, Larson, and Blaney), because they’re just one win away from being guaranteed a shot at the 2019 championship. As we’ll see later, those three are all dominator options, so be sure to have some exposure to them!
Lineup construction / correlation
With 500 laps to go around, the need for dominators is very high. Fortunately, we have some very strong plays in the value/value stud ranges, which means we won’t need to go dumpster diving just to make ends meet. With that in mind, I like balanced lineups in all formats, though you could still run some stars & scrubs lineups in GPP if you really want to.
For the dominators, since we do have so many laps, we’re going to want 2 to 3 of them on DraftKings and 1 to 2 over on FanDuel. I would probably limit myself to no more than 2 front-runner dominators (preferably just 1), and try to get 1 to 2 hybrids to act as a “secondary” dominator whenever possible.
Hybrids
Ah, good ol’ hybrids! As usual, we’ll start here, and as usual, Kyle Busch is one of the top options. He’s not alone this week though, as he’ll be joined by Keselowski, who could go toe-to-toe with him for the title of the highest ceiling on the board. Both of them are capable of leading a ton of laps and could see over 200 DKFP, so it should go without saying, but do not sleep on these two!
Harvick and Kurt are behind them, and while they’re very close in the kind of scores I expect out of them, Kurt is a bit cheaper, so I do like him more for the whole “points per salary” perspective. After that it’s Larson, and while I don’t love him, I think he’s still a viable pivot as he’s had a few surprises this year, and leading 100 laps at Martinsville is certainly within his capabilities.
Dominators
Hamlin has the pole, and is coming off of a ton of momentum from Kansas, so he’s a solid option in all formats. If you want a front-runner for cash games, he’s the one to go with. He shouldn’t have a lot of trouble leading most of stage 1 on his way to a top-10 or top-5 finish, which would return plenty of cash value. For GPP, as we saw last week, he’s still able to take over a race, so his ceiling is up there with some of the best of them.
Logano is my next favorite, and like Keselowski, he has the potential for a massive ceiling here. I’d probably put his realistic ceiling to be higher than Hamlin’s, but I do think Hamlin has a better chance of reaching his (slightly lower) ceiling.
After that, it’s Truex, Elliott, then Blaney/Bowyer. This is one of the few times all season that we can take some shots with Bowyer as a dominator, so be sure to grab a few shares!
*EDIT* – I managed to forget that Elliott was to start from the rear. That certainly hurts his early dominator potential, but with 500 laps to go around, he could still dominate later in the race. I’d have to put him down near the bottom of the list, but he’s still in play (especially since his ownership might be really low).
Studs
It’s sort of a “meh” group here, but we have Johnson, Bowman/Byron, and then Jones (who I don’t mind just fading, based on his history, price, starting position, and lack of dominator upside).
I wouldn’t stuff him into a cash lineup first, but if you land on Johnson, I don’t mind taking him there since he’s starting fairly deep in the field. He shouldn’t have much trouble grabbing a top-15 or better, which would return plenty of value. He’s got the highest ceiling of this group too, as he’s got legitimate top-5 upside if he’s really on his game. Speaking of top-5s, I do think one is in Byron’s future here, I just don’t know if it’ll be this weekend or perhaps next season. Either way, it’s coming, so have some exposure to him just in case it happens now!
Value studs
One of my favorite groups this week, the value studs have three very strong options; Newman, Austin, and Menard. All three are good to go in all formats and have high ceilings to go along with their solid floors. Get plenty of exposure to all three of them!
Buescher and Stenhouse/DiBenedetto/Suarez are all very strong pivots and deserve plenty of exposure (the argument could be made to keep DiBenedetto over on FanDuel only, perhaps Suarez too). Either way, these guys are all very solid pivots to the main three, or you can mix and match them around however you see fit. I expect to see at least one of them in the winning lineup, or perhaps two of them.
Aric is the odd man out here. I don’t mind just fading him, as he doesn’t have much going for him this week.
Value
While this group as a whole isn’t a strong as the value studs, Ty and Preece aren’t too far behind them, and make for two very good options in this price range. Ty can be used in all formats, while I would keep Preece for GPP.
The other options here would be Wallace/Hemric, Ragan, and then LaJoie (who is pretty far behind all of these others…he should probably be with the punts instead, honestly). I would focus most of my attention on Wallace/Hemric with a few shares of Ragan to go around in case he finds another random top-15 (he’d be a nice pivot on FanDuel).
Punts
Cassill is easily my favorite here. Pure speed isn’t king at Martinsville, so this would be a good time for him to put his skills to use and move up a bit. I believe he can drive his way into the top-25, and if a few things go his way, he could see a finish close to 20th or so.
Chastain doesn’t have quite the ceiling that Cassill does, but he’s still in play in case there’s some chaos that moves him up a bit. I don’t think he’ll break out of the 30’s without some help.
The rest of the punts are your typical, well, punts. You can sprinkle them around in top-heavy lineups and hope for the best, but they don’t really stand out to me here. I’d rather take my shots with Cassill.
Stacks
It’s no secret that the Joe Gibbs cars have been hot stuff, and with so many laps to go around, we can look to them for some co-dominator performances. Basically, you can mix and match and two of Kyle Busch, Truex, and Hamlin and have 300-400 lead lap potential from just two of these guys. If you want to get really funky, you could run a stars & scrubs lineup and stack all three, but I’m not sure I love that move. I’d prefer to stick to two, with Kyle Busch being one of the two.
Of course, the same could be said about Penske, mainly Kesewloski and Logano. Those two can be stacked and also offer a healthy 200-400 lead lap ceiling. I don’t mind sprinkling in some Blaney with them, but I’d lean more on the first two this week.
Pivots
As always, pivots are the name of the game! As you could probably tell, the value studs are my favorite group to focus on, followed by the value drivers and then the hybrids/dominators. I’m not much in love with the studs, so I would put them at the bottom of the list.
Closing thoughts
Once again we switch gears, this time for the 500-lap behemoth that is Martinsville. Remember to react accordingly; get those lead laps, shuffle in the high-ceiling pivots, play within your means, and above all else, good luck today! I’ll see you all in Slack!