Welcome to another week of EPL DFS. The DFS Army murdered last week’s slate. Army helmets were everywhere above the cash line. We will look to push for it again this week. As always, we’ll go deep into the game. We’ll be challenging what we see on the screen and what we hear from the announcers. Before we take the pitch, we will be talking tactics. This is Chalk Talk.
This article will look different than the old “Holding the Midfield” article from last season. While it will have the same premise, this year brings added features, including some deep dive stats to further drive home some guys I’m looking at ahead of the impending gameweek. The important thing to remember when using this article is that these guys I will mention are not necessarily to be used in a vacuum. Your lineups should tell a story. It’s a tale of game scripts. Remember to build your core and to lock in your value. Also, your weekly research should begin by reading “The Starting XI” by @theDFSniper.
Liverpool v Leicester
Liverpool is the big boy on the slate and that’s where we can expect the bulk of our opponents to go. That’s what we want! Leicester is a really good defensive team and they are playing with solid confidence right now. Leicester won’t cringe at the site of Liverpool and I expect them to play a tough game. The model has this game as a 1-0 victory for Liverpool. I think there will be a re-commitment to defense that slows their attack just a little bit while pool gets back to basics. A couple things with this for those thinking that paying up at keeper is the way to go:
- You might think this is license to play Adrian, but I would caution you against that. He isn’t Alisson and this Liverpool defense isn’t the same as last year’s.
- The opponent is Leicester. Jamie Vardy would love a chance to do some damage against another top 6 team. He has a history of showing up against the top teams and he is on point under their new manager.
There are better options at keeper. I will likely keep myself to the attack and save my money for the (hopeful) banger on the slate.
Norwich v Aston Villa
This is the game we want to attack. Norwich seems to be scoring at home, for now, and Villa has conceded 7 goals in 3 road games, so far. It probably could have been more if they had faced a more capable offense than Palace in one of those. Norwich also does not include defense in their repertoire, so this game is stackable. Let’s add to the equation that Norwich is down to their 3rd keeper. Even though I think this game is gpp stackable, I have to go with Michael McGovern as my cash keeper. He is the cheapest keeper I feel good about.
As for the field players, I think this all starts with Emi Buendia. Norwich will be the aggressors and he should create plenty of chances. I am loading up on him. To stack with him, I’m going with Teemu Pukki. The offense flows to Pukki and you shouldn’t worry that he hasn’t scored in a couple weeks. For the visitors, one player I’m eyeing is Wesley, as Norwich concedes to forwards too. I don’t want to get too exposed to him as he is more of a target striker and he will look to control the ball and play off to his teammates just as much as he will want to shoot, if not more.
There are other ways I will stack up this game and you will have to stay tuned to the player pool to see who else I like.
HAM-MER!
You have to yell it just like that and tell me you don’t feel better about life. Before I continue, let us Fanduelers welcome back the Draftkings players to the hammer life. There are key injuries on both sides of this one. West Ham is missing their keeper, Lukasz Fabianski, and Crystal Palace is missing their most important midfielder in Luka Milivojevic. I like getting a piece of this one but I don’t think it is necessary if you don’t want to. I had this one as 1-1 before the injuries but I see them as an even trade, in terms of scoreline, for the most part.
Crystal Palace has shown a propensity for getting beat down their left side. It just so happens that West Ham has a weapon running at them over there. Andriy Yarmolenko has 7 shots (5 of them in the box) in West Ham’s last 3 games and 3 goals in their last 4 games. Even though West Ham has not conceded a goal at home since opening day, it’s hard to completely buy in to a team that did nothing to address their bad defense from last season. While playing Crystal Palace is not completely necessary, the lack of Mili in the lineup likely means even more hero ball from Wilfried Zaha. West Ham concedes chances from the wings. That could mean Andros Townsend whipping in crosses to Jordan Ayew or it could mean Zaha continues to take on right backs everywhere. I like Zaha more than Ayew because he shoots more. If West Ham is going to have a stingy defense, give me the guy who is firing more.
Introducing the Model
I will include the model link below. It’s a bit too large to add to this article. Do not take the numbers as gospel without reading the notes. The model does not include player ratings so the injuries need to be included subjectively. One day I hope to have the time to include player ratings so we have up-to-date information and we can just push and go. That day is not today.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ywrwy8m1Yop5vV4NkvO84WKMAkFipM32YW2HJOkfo1s/edit?usp=sharing
Model Notes
The biggest thing to note is the delta column. The biggest changes denote value, whether it be under or over. When it comes to the draw, history says draws happen about 26% of the time in the premier league. Values above that warrant consideration, especially when you see a 6% or more increase in the odds and the model number is greater than 26%. I’m not saying it’s a done deal but I’m saying its possible. Beyond that, I move with the odds unless I have reason not to.
Totals Roundup
This week the model more or less agrees with the books, or at least who is favored to win each match on the main slate. So I am going to look at the game totals to differentiate our plays.
- I’ve mentioned how I like the under 2.5 goals in the Liverpool/Leicester game. Leicester should look to keep it tight and nervey. The model fancies a 1-0 pool win but I will admit I could see a path to 3 goals between both sides.
- The books have Burnley/Everton showing under 2.5 in the area of 2 goals. The model says that is a bit generous and that it is barely more than a coin flip on the over/under at 1.5 goals (57% over). Seems like one-off scenarios to me.
- For Norwich/Aston Villa, we have a similar odds scenario in reverse at 3.5 goals (57% under 3.5). I actually think this one could go over. After Liverpool, Norwich is the next most interesting team on the slate. I think to differentiate we need to get in with Norwich quite a bit. I don’t hate using 3 Norwich players to exploit the field in gpp.
- While the books have watford and sheffield at a literal coin flip at 2.5 goals, my model is fairly certain it goes over. There will be plenty of low-owned pieces from this game.
- Lastly, my model disagrees with the virtual 2.5 goal coin flip and plants its flag on the under. Its also worth noting that it does not like both teams to get on the scoreboard. This means I lean to the West Ham players. HAM-MER!
That’s it for this week. I am @TreyJ989 in the coaching channels and on Twitter. Feel free to ask me questions. Let’s enjoy the ride.