Welcome back after the international break. We’re looking to start off strong so ask those questions early and often. As always, we’ll go deep into the game. We’ll be challenging what we see on the screen and what we hear from the announcers. Before we take the pitch, we will be talking tactics. This is Chalk Talk.
This article will look different than the old “Holding the Midfield” article from last season. While it will have the same premise, this year brings added features, including some deep dive stats to further drive home some guys I’m looking at ahead of the impending gameweek. The important thing to remember when using this article is that these guys I will mention are not necessarily to be used in a vacuum. Your lineups should tell a story. It’s a tale of game scripts. Remember to build your core and to lock in your value. Also, your weekly research should begin by reading “The Starting XI” by @theDFSniper.
Bournemouth v Norwich
We’ll start with this match because you might think that is a goal-fest, but then again so doesn’t everyone else. Norwich has been giving up goals galore and Villa just went into Norwich and beat them quite handily. Recency bias may pull people into thinking Bournemouth “might” be a low-owned way to attack this slate, given we have 2 big boys on the slate (3 if you’re playing on Fanduel). I’m here to caution you against getting overly involved.
If Bournemouth is going to keep their starting XI then my cash plays are Callum Wilson (FanDuel) and Harry Wilson (DraftKings). I believe these 2 players are the best way to attack Norwich. They are also good GPP plays on the site opposite for which I have them listed. Norwich has a litany of injuries but they are likely to get back their top goalkeeper. The model has this game as a 2-1 final and as such I won’t be attacking this game as hard as one might think.
Leicester v Burnley
It’s just as important to find the cornerstones of your builds as it is to find those areas where you either want miniscule exposure or no exposure. This match is the latter. These teams are very equally matched in that they both do not concede a lot of quality chances and they don’t generate a lot of chances. Overall, I have this as the lowest scoring match on the slate, and with this slate having an extra match, I will be drawing a line in the sand. These teams will be on the other side of it.
Wolverhampton v Southampton
I love this game for GPP. If you remember from a couple weeks ago, the Wolves went into the Etihad and shutout Man City 😲. That result was a cannon blast aimed at their domestic title hopes. That was only the Wolves’s 2nd win of the season as they realize how tough it is to manage domestic competition and Europa League with little more than a minimal squad. Europa is back this week and they have a decent-sized trip to Slovakia. Here’s what we think we know about the Wolves:
- They love to play against top 6 teams in the Premier League, as shown by their effort against Man City
- After getting back to European competition after 39 years, they are not wasting the opportunity
Assuming that’s true, I like Southampton. Southampton hasn’t gotten the results yet but they do have the effort. Nobody will be on southampton and they have an opportunity if they are willing to push the envelope. Wolverhampton will play from the back; and, if you can force them early into wanting to play a defensive game, there will be opportunities to be had. The best part, southampton pieces are fairly cheap on both sites. My favorite target is Danny Ings. Over the last 3 gameweeks, he has the highest xG/90 of anyone who has played at least 50% of the total minutes (1.06 xG/90).
HAM-MER!
You have to yell it just like that and tell me you don’t feel better about life.
It’s another City match but they will come with low ownership. Everyone in this match, that I will recommend, is GPP. With 7 matches, most will stick to the 10 am games, especially with Chelsea and Tottenham in good spots. If I am getting in on this game, it will be a 1-off. My favorite play is Raheem Sterling. He is joint-top in salary so it may be tough to fit him. Crystal Palace has conceded many shots from the attacking left. Sergio Aguero is always in play, if he is healthy. Most will probably shade towards him if they dip into the light blue waters.
We want to listen for the late team news and see if Kevin De Bruyne is fit again. I’m hearing he has a 75% chance of playing and City have been missing him dearly. Both matches they’ve lost have been with him on the shelf. If he is trending on playing then I will be a little more interested in getting into them. For now, Sterling is my top play and others can be rotated in if we see that KDB is indeed back in the starting XI. I will alert if I hear anything.
Introducing the Model
I will include the model link below. It’s a bit too large to add to this article. Do not take the numbers as gospel without reading the notes. The model does not include player ratings so the injuries need to be included subjectively. One day I hope to have the time to include player ratings so we have up-to-date information and we can just push and go. That day is not today.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ywrwy8m1Yop5vV4NkvO84WKMAkFipM32YW2HJOkfo1s/edit?usp=sharing
Model Notes
The biggest thing to note is the delta column. The biggest changes denote value, whether it be under or over. When it comes to the draw, history says draws happen about 26% of the time in the premier league. Values above that warrant consideration, especially when you see a 6% or more increase in the odds and the model number is greater than 26%. I’m not saying it’s a done deal but I’m saying its possible. Beyond that, I move with the odds unless I have reason not to.
Win/Draw Odds
We will start by dissecting the win/draw odds. There are 2 interesting games to note
- Leicester and Burnley are showing a 6.83% uptick in draw odds over the books, bringing the implied chance to over 31%. Thats huge and it makes me a little less likely to get in with Kasper Schmeichel. After the draw we like leicester to win, and I suppose that is a possibility; but I can’t ignore a percentage like that. I will go elsewhere at keeper, but don’t completely hate him in small doses.
- Wolverhampton v Southampton is showing a flip in terms of likely winner. This is a potential let-down spot for the Wolves. I don’t mind some kicks at the can with Angus Gunn as my guy between the sticks.
Total Roundup
This is an overview of the totals that my model has provided.
- Aston Villa v Brighton (2.5) – this has a shade to the under so it’s closer to 2.4.
- Bournemouth v Norwich (3.5) – this is another total shading to the under. I touch upon this total above.
- Chelsea v Newcastle (3) – chalky spot and newcastle can keep this under if they can stay off the ref’s naughty list
- Leicester v Burnley (1.5) – slight lean to the over but not enough to make me care.
- Tottenham v Watford (2.5) – pretty much spot on the number. I like that the model only likes the spurs to score so we can look at spurs for our lineups just about.
- Wolverhampton v Southampton (2.5) – also spot on. I lean to the over and both teams to score.
- Crystal Palace v Man City (3.5) – the model likes both teams to score but a lot has to happen to have me on that side. John Stones‘s imminent return certainly doesn’t put me on that bus.
That’s it for this week. I am @TreyJ989 in the coaching channels and on Twitter. Feel free to ask me questions. Let’s enjoy the ride.