BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN+ 20 Location – Singapore, Singapore
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card in Singapore. DraftKings has some OK contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $15k goes to 1st place with a total of $75k being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw a handful of entries at that $15k prize. Typically, I stay around 20 lineups each week and go after that big GPP and then max the $4 20-entry max GPP as well. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Jeff Hughes $8,800 vs Raphael Pessoa $7,400
Jeff Hughes
Age: 31
Height: 6’2
Weight: 251
Reach: 77”
Gym: Strong Style Fight Team
From: Ohio
UFC Record: 0-1-1
Fight Matrix: 64
Last Fought: 1 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: 1NC
Betting Odds: -245
Jeff Hughes is getting a quick turnaround after his no contest vs Todd Duffee. Hughes poked Duffee in the eye & Todd didn’t want to continue very early in round one. Duffee was having a lot of success, even dropping Hughes, so he did take damage in the fight. Jeff Hughes is a tough fighter, but not very athletic. He has hard low kicks & a good overhand right. He actually has pretty good boxing & hand speed. He will throw nice one-twos and hook combinations. He will throw a nice right hook to a one-two combination. He will throw nice lead uppercut, left hook combos. He will throw a nice right hook, overhand left combination. Hughes is willing to sit in the pocket & trade. He landed a nice left hook in an exchange with Todd Duffee. Hughes is very good at throwing in combination against the cage. He will mix in spinning backfists & uppercuts. He throws a ton of volume for a heavyweight and is well conditioned. He trains with Stipe Miocic, so he has a great training partner to work with. Hughes struggled with the aggressiveness of Todd Duffee in his last match. He was backed up against the fence & flurried on multiple times as well as dropped. Hughes is a guy who can take a licking & keep on ticking. It looked like he took all the shots Duffee had to offer, gassed him out and made him quit with the eye injury. Hughes isn’t a huge power guy, but it is HW & he has 4 KO/TKO’s. He has a strong chin but was TKO’d in his one loss.
Jeff Hughes is a grinder who likes to work against the cage & in top position. He will land big uppercut & overhand combinations while mixing in takedowns. He has good body lock entries. In top position, he will wear on guys with short shots & has solid control. He can try to pass too quickly and get swept at times. Hughes was able to easily defend all the submission attempts of Greene on the ground & exhausted him in their first match. His submission defense is solid. For this fight, he had to have seen Pessoa’s last match & should look for takedowns. Hughes isn’t a submission threat himself & just has one in his career. He has never been submitted.
Raphael Pessoa
Age: 30
Height: 6’3
Weight: 261
Reach: 78”
Gym: Evolucao Thai
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 145
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +205
Raphael Pessoa is looking for a better result after getting finished in his UFC debut. He was submitted by prospect Cyril Gane. Pessoa took the bout on very short notice and was severely out of shape. Hopefully he comes into this contest more fit & ready to go. Pessoa is a striker. He has good lateral movement & nasty leg kicks. Pessoa will throw body & spinning kicks. Pessoa doesn’t like fighting on the inside much. He will use his jab, left hook & hook combos to land & exit. Pessoa will look for counter uppercuts. He has huge power & has been able to knockout a lot of opponents in sloppy pocket exchanges. He gets hit in the exchanges but has a strong chin & fires back. He is basic & trading inside sloppily will likely get him knocked out in future fights. He also is soft in the body. Pessoa doesn’t have fast feet & fighters can get inside and back him up against the cage. Pessoa has 6 knockouts in 9 wins.
Pessoa isn’t an offensive grappler. He doesn’t look like someone who will have an explosive wrestling shot & I highly doubt he can takedown Hughes. In his match with Cyril Gane, he showed nothing on the mat. He made a mistake going for a hip toss & ended up on his back. When he was down, he almost turtled up, and was arm triangled almost immediately. Obviously after opponents see that you have to imagine they are going to try to take him down. Pessoa does have one career submission.
This looks like a KO or bust fight for Pessoa. He does look like he has one punch fight finishing power, but other than that, I like Hughes here and I think he is going to be better everywhere and could have an easy path to victory if he can land takedowns. I think Hughes would win a clear decision if it goes all 15-minutes, but I think he finishes with ground and pound at some point.
On DraftKings, this is a decent fight for GPPs and my preferred play is Hughes. We have a -155 FDGTD line here and Hughes is +135 ITD. I think he has enough volume to score ok in a decision but if he can get a finish then he could be in the running for the optimal lineup. I think he is playable in cash games as well with his betting line. Pessoa is a GPP punt only and that is for the KO chance. These are big guys and it could only take one big shot. I don’t see him getting much ownership, so he could be a nice boom/bust play that could work out for us in tournaments. I wouldn’t touch him in cash games though.
Winner – Jeff Hughes via 2nd round (T)KO
Loma Lookboonmee $8,200 vs Alexandra Albu $8,000
Loma Lookboonmee
Age: 23
Height: 5’1
Weight: 115
Reach: 62”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: Thailand
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3–1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -120
Loma Lookboonmee will be making her UFC debut after a decision victory in Invicta. Loma is an Atomweight & this will be her first fight at Strawweight. Loma is a pure, Muay Thai practitioner on the feet. Loma is the first Thai fighter to compete in the UFC. Lookboonmee is a 9-time Muay Thai World champion, & an international federation of Muay Thai associations gold medalist. She won the Muay Thai female athlete of the year in 2018. Lookboonmee is flat footed early & fighters can dart in, land & dart out with hand combos. She tends to start slowly but when she gets going her footwork is good. She is light on her feet and controls distance well. Loma has nasty low kicks inside, outside, along with front kicks to the body & head with both legs. She likes to throw round or front kicks to the body to a straight-right hand or right hook combination. Loma has excellent feints & is very good at feinting kicks & throwing punches in the pocket. She is low volume with her hands & throws one strike at a time usually. She is very calm under fire & has a great chin. Lookboonmee has one TKO victory in her career.
Loma Lookboonmee is extremely good in the clinch. She is super strong & just throws girls around. She will frame against the face with her forearm & come over the top with huge elbows. Loma has nasty knees to the body & head that are brutal. She gets the bulk of her damage off in fights in the clinch or in top position. Lookboonmee has very nice body locks against the cage & a heavy top game. She will get nice double leg slams. When opponents pressure her, she will almost always duck under & get the takedown. She definitely has good timing. She likes to throw elbows from half guard. She will pass to mount, has great control & ground & pound. She will get high in the mount, trap wrists & look for punches. She will force opponents to give their backs, flatten them out & beat them up there. She likes to grapple and most times she will get top position at some point. In her one loss she was caught in an armbar in a scramble & was submitted. She has no submissions herself.
Alexandra Albu
Age: 29
Height: 5’2
Weight: 115
Reach: 62”
Gym: MMA-Kegi
From: Russia
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +100
Alexandra Albu will be looking to bounce back from her first career loss to Emily Whitmire. Albu was on the wrong end of the fastest submission loss in the history of the woman’s SW division. Albu is a very powerful fighter, but stiff. Her straight-right hand and right hook have decent pop & she is very aggressive, especially in round 1. She will throw left hook, straight-right hand combinations. She will throw body & head kicks. She will just run forward with punch combinations with absolutely no setup & her chin in the air. She is still very wild & novice on the feet. She will attempt to use her jab, but it comes slow & fighters are easily able to counter. She is explosive & can close the distance pretty quickly. She will throw spinning backfists, but she doesn’t set them up very well. She doesn’t have good movement, and when fighters pressure her she will just back straight up. Albu has a good chin & is willing to eat shots to get inside. She has a hell of a chin & will eat huge shots and continue to come forward. She even ate a nasty, illegal up kick to the face in her match against Curran that seemed to not even phase her. She is 3-1 in her career & still has very little cage time.
Albu is not a great grappler, but she is more comfortable grappling than striking. She is very strong & against low level fighters she has been able to just use brute strength to overpower them. She can get backed up with punches & put her back right against the cage. Opponents have had success controlling her & landing shots from that position as well as getting body lock takedowns. Albu will also pull guard when she is in the clinch at times, which shows poor IQ. She will attempt leg locks off her back, but she isn’t nearly dangerous enough, nor does she have a good enough get-up game to risk being on her back for the small chance of a submission. She can be controlled on the ground & doesn’t do much off her back once opponents pass her guard. She will explode & early on in fights get-up, but as her cardio goes, she is hard pressed to stand up. Albu got her back taken & was submitted extremely quickly in her last fight. She did get a guillotine in her UFC debut when an opponent shot a double leg on her. She does have decent body lock takedowns of her own to go along with hip throws. She has a lot of power & can really slam opponents down to the mat with force. On top, she will frame on opponent’s faces & try to land hard hammerfists from opponent’s guards. She leaves a lot of openings for armbars & doesn’t have great top control from that position. When she is able to get a hip toss directly into side control, she seems most comfortable there throwing short elbows. She doesn’t have an overly dangerous top game, but with tooling her power could give her good top control & ground & pound ability. She has one finish via ground & pound and has finished 2 of her 3 pro fights. She has questionable cardio & doesn’t know how to pace herself yet. She has a lot of raw intangibles, but she is still learning the basics of fighting such as composure & decision making.
Loma is a champion Muay Thai fighter and she will have the striking advantage if she can keep this fight at range. Albu is very hittable as well so I would take Loma if I knew this fight would stay striking. I do think Albu will be going for takedowns here though and she will be the bigger/stronger fighter, so I think she will be successful with them at times and that makes the fight very close if it comes down to Loma winning on the feet and Albu on the ground. I will take Loma though because I think she has more potential and I do see her having a lot of success on the feet.
I really don’t have much interest in this fight. I don’t care for eithers ITD line and I don’t see this being a real high-volume fight. With limited lineups, I don’t know that either side will make my lineups, but I think Albu would be my preferred play just because I expect her to be lower owned and she should be the one with the higher volume and grappling advantage. I don’t see this fight making my lineups more than 1-2 times if I have 20 total lineups.
Winner – Loma Lookboonmee via Split Decision
Sergei Pavlovich $9,000 vs Maurice Greene $7,200
Sergei Pavlovich
Age: 27
Height: 6’3
Weight: 254
Reach: 84”
Gym: Eagles MMA
From: Russia
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 44
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -240
Sergey Pavlovich bounced back from his loss to Alistair Overeem with a first round knockout of Marcelo Golm. Pavlovich hasn’t been out of round one in over 2 years. Pavlovich has 10 finishes in 13 wins, all in the first round. Pavlovich is a low volume, counter striker. He has a nasty jab, and heavy one-two. He will throw jab, overhand rights. He will throw a nice fade away left & right hook, almost like Russian casting hooks. His 84” reach gives him the ability to land from very far out. Pavlovich’s overhand right is his money shot though, he hurts everyone he lands that on. In his last match, he landed the overhand right, closed the distance and flurried on him against the cage to finish the match. His hand speed is not bad, he is fairly quick. He has decent leg kicks. He will throw the occasional front & round kicks to the body as well. He will throw a high kick into a spinning backfist. When he has an opponent hurt, he will try to open up and finish. Overall, he is very low volume, and usually if fights hit the scorecards it’s close. He has had multiple fights where he got the decision win, where it was basically a 50-50 fight. His counter punching makes opponents hesitant to throw also, and he’s had quite a few uneventful fights. He will feint & inch forward, making the cage small & trying to force reactions out of opponents. In the fights where he gets most of his knockouts, it’s when his opponents go first. Maurice Greene should give him opportunities to land in this fight. All 10 of Pavlovich’s finish are via knockout.
Pavlovich isn’t a super active grappler, and I don’t expect him to wrestle much here. He isn’t a bad wrestler and has strong double legs. He doesn’t have the greatest top control. I feel that’s why he doesn’t go for many takedowns, because it’s just a waste of energy if they are going to get back up quickly. He has good takedown defense and is strong in the clinch. He has solid knees in that position. In his match with Overeem, he was taken down & taken out with G&P in round one. He was knocked out pretty brutally. He has no submissions & has never been submitted. Pavlovich has good cardio due to his style.
Maurice Greene
Age: 33
Height: 6’7
Weight: 256
Reach: 82”
Gym: Factory X Muay Thai
From: Illinois
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 50
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +200
Maurice Greene is looking to run his UFC record to 4-0 with a victory over Sergey Pavlovich. Greene earned a first round finish in his 3rd UFC fight via KO. Maurice Greene did his training camp at Factory X for this fight & looks in fantastic shape. Greene always has a little body fat and weighed in at 256 lbs for his last match. He has posted photos weighing 236 lbs & he is much more ripped. Maurice Greene is an athletic striker. He has a snappy jab & was able to drop Jeff Hughes with it. He will use double jabs to get inside. He throws nice one-twos. Greene will throw front & round kicks to the body. He throws one-twos to body kick combinations. He has good head kicks & will throw front kicks to the face. Greene likes to throw a lot of lead uppercuts. He has nice lead elbows & knees. He has closed the distance with flying knees & lead elbows when fighters are against the cage. Greene is a fast guy & throws in combination. He keeps the volume high & is a finisher. Greene is going to have the speed & volume advantage in this matchup. He tends to drop his right hand when he throws a left straight or jab. Greene looks weak to the body in certain fights, but in better shape I’m sure he will take them better. When Greene gets hurt, he doesn’t move his feet & just shells up. Greene doesn’t have big power & just has two career KO/TKO’s. In his last match with Junior Albini, he did get a first round knockout. Greene can get tired when opponents pressure him. He waits for his opponents once he slows down & can get picked apart in later rounds. Jeff Hughes & Junior Albini were able to attack the body very effectively. Greene also leans back with his chin in the air, which could be very dangerous in this fight. He is used to having a reach advantage & he won’t in this match. He has fought in glory and was knocked out twice. He was hit with a big two-piece combination against Juan Espino & dropped. He has a questionable chin in my opinion even though he’s never been finished by strikes in MMA.
Maurice Greene is not a bad grappler. Greene is strong in the clinch & looks improved in that aspect. He has some nice knees to the body & head. He will throw nice elbows from the Muay Thai clinch. He was landing solid shots off the break against Hughes. Greene is an average wrestler, and I imagine Pavlovich trying to take him down. He is long, so he has a dangerous guard. He will throw up triangles off his back & got one in his UFC debut. Even though he isn’t great at the technique, not many HWs use triangles, so they can be easier to catch them in. Greene’s guard is hard to pass, but if opponents can, he struggles. He doesn’t have great get-ups, and just lays flat on his back. He got his back taken & rear naked choked vs Juan Espino. Jeff Hughes was able to take him down in their first match and control him on the mat. Greene does have 3 triangle choke finishes & 4 submissions overall. He has been submitted just the one time.
I think Sergei is the better striker here and I think he has more power as well. I do see this fight playing out on the feet and I think he is much more likely to end it with one big shot. I wouldn’t want to bet either side of this fight, but I do think the line looks right and I will take Pavlovich here by KO.
This is a great GPP fight to target with the -300 FDGTD line. I do like both sides of this fight, but Pavlovich is my preferred play. He has a -125 ITD line and I think he does get the KO, so that is why I like him. He is going to need that KO to be on the optimal lineup, but I will look to be overweight to the field here if I can. If Greene wins this fight, I think he is close to a lock for the nuts lineup and that puts him in play as well. This is a fight that will be in more than half my lineups and I will be hoping it doesn’t go all 3-rounds.
Winner – Sergei Pavlovich via 2nd round (T)KO
Movsar Evloev $8,700 vs Enrique Barzola $7,500
Movsar Evloev
Age: 25
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: Russia
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 69
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W11
Betting Odds: -175
Movsar Evloev is one of the best prospects in the UFC. He is undefeated at 11-0 and looking to go 2-0 in the UFC. Evloev has had two opponents pull out of scheduled fights August 31st. He has gotten rebooked a little under two months later against a pretty big name in Enrique Barzola. Evloev is a grinder. He has decent striking, but not great. He will throw a jab, and one-two out there. He will throw check left hooks. He likes to grab the single collar & throw uppercuts. He will throw solid, rear leg head kicks & question mark kicks. He is training at Tiger Muay Thai to improve his striking, but he is in on the legs quickly in every round he’s fought in thus far in his career. I feel he will struggle with fighters who have solid movement & range striking. He doesn’t have a lot to close the distance & can overextend with sloppy hooks or overhands while trying to get inside. He has 3 career KO/TKO’s & has shown a good chin.
Evloev is an excellent wrestler. He has nice double legs. He will shoot singles & take the back. Evloev is excellent in the clinch against the cage. He will look for foot sweeps, body locks, and has very good control there. In this fight, I think Evloev needs cage grinding time to win. He is extremely strong & will dig, underhook & muscle opponents to the mount. He likes to get into half guard & smash opponents until they turtle up & he can ride them out. Most of the time when he’s taking an opponent down, they don’t get back up for the remainder of the round, especially as the fight goes on. He has a strong mount & will throw hard G&P. He has great back takes & back control. He has tremendous grappling cardio & wears on fighters with his pressure pace & riding ability. He has been in five round fights & not slowed down. He is good off his back at sweeping to top position as well, but overall is very hard to takedown. He has 4 submissions, all rear naked chokes.
Enrique Barzola
Age: 30
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: AKA
From: Peru
UFC Record: 6-2
Fight Matrix: 59
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +155
Enrique Barzola earned a hard-fought split decision victory in his last match. Barzola has won five out of six fights & has been hovering around the top 15 of the division for a couple years. Enrique Barzola showed off the evolution of his striking last match. He fought another grappler & won in a mostly standup fight. On the feet, I would classify Barzola as more of a point fighter. He keeps the pressure on opponents, has decent distance control, but isn’t very dangerous. Barzola will throw a lot of jabs, usually using them to move into range. He will double jab himself into the pocket. Barzola has a pretty good left hook. He will leap into the left hook. He will throw one-twos to the head & body. Barzola will throw a jab, right hook or left hook, right hook combinations. He has a nice left hook, overhand right combination. He will slip punches & return with hooks. He’s very good at slipping shots in the pocket & coming back with shots or ducking under for takedowns. The constant threat of the takedown makes his striking much more effective & can freeze opponents. Barzola is good at using takedown feints to come up into uppercut & hook combinations. Barzola will also attack the body with punches a lot which disguises the level change. Barzola likes to use the superman punch. Barzola will throw occasional leg kicks & nice round kicks to the body. I have seen Barzola throw some front kicks to the body, along with spinning kicks, but overall, he’s mostly hands on the feet.
Barzola is a very good grappler & explosive wrestler. He is very physical & can manhandle opponents in the octagon. He is very good at using his striking to get clean entries on double legs. He can land big, explosive slam takedowns. He is good at ducking under & getting in on double underhooks as well. He will drive & control his opponent against the cage and chain wrestle. He will get the right waist, move to the back and get suplexes or drag his opponents to the mat. He will chain takedowns together until usually finishing with a double. He does a good job of picking up and slamming his opponent in the open mat instead of against the cage, making it harder for them to stand up. Barzola’s top control in the UFC has not been good. He hasn’t been able to hold opponents down or do much with top position. Barzola has the cardio to continue to dump opponents, but if he could look to finish in top position he would be more effective. Barzola has 39 takedowns in 8 UFC fights. He has been taken down just one time. He was able to use takedowns late in rounds to seal the win vs Bobby Moffett. This is going to be the first matchup where Barzola may be the lesser wrestler. Barzola has two submissions & has never been finished. He has great cardio & usually a strong round 3.
Barzola has had the wrestling edge in all his wins in the UFC and I don’t think that will be the case in this fight. I think Evloev is the better wrestler and grappler in this match and I like him more on the feet at well. I think Barzola’s best shot is to try and keep this fight close and with volume. I just think Evloev will be landing the bigger shots and I think he will be the one getting takedowns as well.
On DraftKings, Evloev is my preferred play. I think he is better everywhere and we could see him rack up multiple takedowns here. I don’t know how high his ceiling is, so he isn’t a must play, but he is a guy I want to get into lineups and I think he is playable in all formats. I don’t have much interest in Barzola here though and he might be a full fade for me. I think he might come with more ownership than he should just because of his name and wrestling ability, I just don’t see him having much success in the grappling department here, so it is Evloev or pass for me.
Winner – Movsar Evloev via Unanimous Decision
Rafael Fiziev $8,900 vs Alex White $7,300
Rafael Fiziev
Age: 26
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: Kyrgyzstan
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 288
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -190
Rafael Fiziev will be looking for a better result in this fight than he had in his UFC debut. Fiziev was knocked out very early, showing virtually nothing. Fiziev is the kick boxing coach for Tiger Muay Thai & a high level striker. He has over 200 amateur Muay Thai bouts & is 29-4 as a pro in Muay Thai. He won a silver medal in the World IFMA Muay Thai championship. He has finished 5 of his 6 wins via KO/TKO. Fiziev is very light on his feet and has great distance control. He has amazing head movement & slips and rips excellently. He has nice leg kicks, and heavy body & head kicks. He has a very nice straight-right hand & a devastating left hook. Fiziev has a very nice counter left & right hook moving backwards. He will slip & return with a left hook, straight or overhand right. Fiziev has nasty lead elbows. His ability to slip & rip is elite & he is famous for avoiding head kicks, like he is in the matrix. In his last match, he was caught cold with a spinning back kick that dropped him & he was finished with G&P. Fiziev will throw nice round & question mark kicks to the head himself. He will throw nice spinning backfists. He has nice flying knees. He has a head kick, body kick, and flying knee KO. He will mix head kicks & flying knees into combinations very well. He is very aggressive, but technical, not allowing many opportunities for his opponent to hit him. He doesn’t tend to throw in combination much, unless he has an opponent hurt or on the back foot. He will slowly break opponents down to the legs & body throughout the fight. If he can keep fights standing, he is going to be trouble for a ton of UFC guys. He has 5 KO/TKO wins & is coming off the first TKO loss of his MMA career.
Fiziev looks strong in the clinch. He digs nice underhooks & will throw hard knees & elbows to the body and head. He will grab the plum clinch & throw knees as well. Most of the clinch work I have seen from him is Muay Thai where he doesn’t have the threat of the takedown. In MMA, he will try to just disengage from the clinch usually. Fiziev will throw nice shots off the break. I haven’t seen him attempt many takedowns or defend many. In his fight previous to his UFC debut, he did go for an unsuccessful takedown & was able to defend a single. Overall, there has been very limited tape on his ground game & wrestling ability. In his fight in Titan, he did drop an opponent with a leg kick, and controlled him in top position. Fiziev didn’t pass guard, but he was able to posture up & land some big elbows. He does have one career rear naked choke. I do think his fast twitch muscles, footwork, and counters will make it hard for fighters to get in on his legs. He is very experienced in fighting in combat sports & won’t gas or be overwhelmed by the moment most likely.
Alex White
Age: 31
Height: 6’0
Weight: 155
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: Team Destruction
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 4-5
Fight Matrix: 112
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +165
Alex White is going to be competing in his tenth UFC fight when he makes the walk vs Fiziev. White has been very up & down in his career but is coming off of a victory over Dan Moret in March. Alex White’s UFC wins have come against very low-level competition. I’m not sure any of the opponents he’s defeated are still in the UFC. Dan Moret may still be under contract, but he is 0-3 in the company. White still has a major experience advantage & fought some top guys even if he lost. White is a southpaw brawler with solid power. Alex White doesn’t use a lot of finesse. He has gotten better at not just standing in front of opponents & feinting a bit, but his striking is still all big actions. White doesn’t use a lot of jabs or setups to start combinations. White likes to pressure forward, look to counter, along with looking for straight-lefts & right hooks. He will land the straight-left or right hook & then explode into range with multi punch combinations. White is dangerous with his blitzes, throwing concussive straights or hooks. White likes to throw right hook, straight-left hand combinations. White will throw straight-rights & front kicks to the body. White will mix in body shots & uppercuts in the pocket. Alex White is going to be significantly slower in this fight. Alex White’s aggressiveness could be his downfall in this match. I think if he comes in & uses these obvious blitzes with his chin high, he could get knocked out badly. White can be very deliberate in his entries. He also stands heavy on his lead leg. White still hits hard & Fiziev has to respect the power. White has 5 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Alex White is going to have to mix it up in this contest. White has lost fights due to wrestling in the past but should be the better wrestler in this matchup. White should use his blitz combos to setup double leg or body lock entries. Even if he can’t finish the takedown in space, he should push Fiziev to the cage. White has nice elbows in the clinch, finishing Mitch Clarke with them. White also has a nice front choke he will attack with in the clinch. I haven’t seen Fiziev work off his back & maybe he is very green there. White usually isn’t a fighter who uses takedowns to win fights, but he will need to here. White was able to get a couple body locks against the cage in round 3 vs Dan Moret which helped him win the fight. He couldn’t control Moret and doesn’t have a very good top game. White does have 5 submissions, but not since 2014. He’s been submitted one time in his career. White is tough & has good cardio. He had to dig deep to win his last match via decision.
We didn’t get to see much from Fiziev in his debut because he was knocked out quickly. I am still a believer though and I like the striking from this kid. I think aside from getting KO’d again, he should be the much better striker here and I think he is more likely to get the KO. White should be looking to get takedowns in this match and if he can, he will have the edge on the ground and could just win a decision with his wrestling. I am going to take Fiziev here by knockout though and hope this fight plays out longer than his last one did.
This should be another good one for DraftKings IMO. My preferred play is Fiziev because I think he is a lot better on the feet and I think he gets a KO here. I think he is a decent GPP pivot away from the HWs and people could have recency bias after getting burned in his last fight. I am fine going back to him here and I think he is playable in all formats. I think White is in play as well because if he can survive round 1 then I think he becomes more live in this fight and if he looks to grapple then he could end up being a great play for real cheap. He is a GPP only play for me here, but I do think this is a good fight to target both sides of.
Winner – Rafael Fiziev via 1st round (T)KO
Randa Markos $8,300 vs Ashley Yoder $7,900
Randa Markos
Age: 34
Height: 5’5
Weight: 115
Reach: 63.5”
Gym: Michigan Top Team
From: Canada
UFC Record: 5-6-1
Fight Matrix: 15
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -150
Randa Markos vs Ashley Yoder is a fight of two grapplers who are in good spots in their career. Even coming off a loss, Randa Markos still has probably the most momentum she’s had in the UFC. She has still been trading wins & losses, but she is in a better mindset. Markos is a tenacious fighter with very good cardio and keeps a steady work rate throughout the fight. She has her lead hand low & is heavy on her lead leg. She uses her front hand to gauge distance and tries to stay loose. She uses a lot of lateral movement, but she doesn’t really set anything up off it, she usually just comes forward in straight lines. She will throw jabs and double jabs. She will throw straight punches & hooks to close the distance. She will throw overhand rights & left hooks to try to catch opponents coming in. When she is getting pushed back & pressured, she doesn’t do much of anything. She is extremely low output & she hung around on the outside with Gadelha and didn’t do much in her last match. She will bite down at times & throw one-twos or walk through shots to get inside, but not often enough. Markos doesn’t have power & she has had 9 decisions in 11 UFC fights. She has 0 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes.
Randa Markos is a grinder. She is good in the clinch or going for takedowns. She will work in the clinch against the cage and has no problem grinding opponents out there, but she lacks physicality at times and can get taken down herself or controlled against the cage. She will throw overhand rights into body locks. She will try to attack with hooks, back her opponents to the cage & dig an underhook. She will use nice snatch singles to get opponents to the cage. She has good body locks, doubles and will go for hip tosses. On top, she does a good job of getting in dominant positions and landing decent G&P. She will turk the legs & try to move directly into mount. She likes to take mount & has some nice G&P. She also has nice back takes using the double wrist lock. She has struggled with good BJJ players. They have been able to sweep her & put her in submission trouble. Cortney Casey was able to catch an armbar off her back on Markos. Off her back, she actually isn’t bad. She does a good job of scrambling, has good dexterity in her legs and can take the back in odd positions. She does a good job of when she wins a scramble of immediately getting in a dominant position and going to work and not letting opponens rest. She isn’t a huge submission threat, but she has 4 career submissions. She has been submitted twice herself.
Ashley Yoder
Age: 32
Height: 5’7
Weight: 115
Reach: 66.5”
Gym: Team Quest
From: California
UFC Record: 2-3
Fight Matrix: 37
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +130
Ashley Yoder is coming off an excellent performance. She defeated Syuri Kondo 30-24 on the cards in the first 30-24 scorecard in women’s SW history. Yoder is a grappler also. Yoder is long and tries to accentuate it, but she isn’t a great striker and is a bit flat footed. She will throw a nice one-two. Her straight-right hand looked improved and less loopy against Dern. She has a nice fade away, overhand right moving backwards. She has a good overhand left & left hook. She will throw front kicks to the body, and decent inside leg kicks. She is aggressive and will press forward, eat shots and continue to throw. She has a very good chin and will walk through shots undeterred. She doesn’t have great speed, and she can get hit clean with faster, tighter punches. In this fight, I think she has the faster hand speed though & hits harder. Yoder has zero KO/TKO’s & never has been finished by strikes.
Yoder is a strong grappler & good Jiu-Jitsu player. She likes to get a single collar clinch when opponents are pressuring and has a solid head & arm throw. She will try to get in the clinch and grind for takedowns against the cage also. In her last match, she did a great job of working the Thai plum & then ducking under into single leg takedowns. She will dive on submissions both standing and, on the ground, and is very aggressive trying to take the back. Her fight IQ isn’t good, and she will try to take the back too hastily at times and end up on bottom. On her back, she is comfortable as well and will throw up subs but can be grinded out. She is very good at creating scrambles & ending up in top position. She has a good mount & will rain down decent shots. She has great cardio and is very scrappy. Yoder has 3 submissions & has never been finished.
I think this is going to be a close back and forth fight where we see a good mixture of striking and grappling. I don’t see either having a big edge in either area and it could just come down to whoever spends more time on their back loses. I think this fight is closer to 50/50 so I will take Yoder as the underdog. She has a 6-inch reach advantage on the feet, as well as lands slightly higher strikes on the stats. She also is more accurate with takedowns on the stat sheet and defends a higher percentage of takedowns as well.
On DraftKings, this is going to be dog or pass for me. I would rather target the other favorites more than Markos here and I don’t love her upside. I think Yoder is a live underdog in this fight so that puts her in play for me, but I don’t love the ceiling for her either. I do think we get a decent amount of points even if she loses though so I am fine with her in cash games and she will make my GPP player pool. I don’t see the winner scoring much more than 10x here, so I think we can fade it in GPPs if we want.
Winner – Ashley Yoder via Split Decision
Muslim Salikhov $8,600 vs Laureano Staropoli $7,600
Muslim Salikhov
Age: 35
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 69.5”
Gym: Nick Catones MMA
From: Russia
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 63
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -170
Muslim Salikhov has bounced back from a loss in UFC debut with back to back highlight reel KO’s. He has knocked both opponents out cold. Salikhov is extremely light on his feet. He has great distance control, in & out movement, and feints. He is super-fast closing the distance with both punches & kicks. Salikhov can fight going forwards and backwards. He will walk opponents into strikes, along with use forward pressure, feints & counter punching. He has a nasty jab & heavy low kicks. He has a nice, leaping left hook & overhand right. He will throw nasty, left hook & straight-right counters as opponents try to get inside. He is always looking to set up spinning attacks which are extremely dangerous. He pull counters excellently with his punches & kicks. He has many KO’s with spinning techniques. He has flawless technique on his spinning back kicks both to the body & head. He will start low & attack the body until opponents lower their guard & then go high. He has excellent spinning backfists as well. He has a nasty switch kick to the body & head. This man is a problem on the feet. He has over 100 combined knockouts between his Kickboxing, Wushu & MMA careers. He added another UFC knockout to his resume in his last fight in brutal fashion. Salikhov’s right hand is extremely powerful. Both of his UFC knockouts have come courtesy of the right hand. His defense on the feet is excellent. He has great head movement, circles out excellently, and has great vision. He catches kicks & counters with punches as his opponents are off balance. The only issue I would say he has, is sometimes he can get hit with overhands after opponents feint takedowns. Salikhov has been hit just 31 times in 3 fights & none of them were very significant. Overall, he is just very quick & hard to hit. He has never been knocked out in MMA. In 199 kickboxing matches he has been knocked out 1 time. Salikhov has 12 KO/TKO’s in MMA.
Muslim Salikhov isn’t an active grappler & I don’t expect this fight to hit the mat. Salikhov will utilize the clinch if opponents crash the distance aggressively. He will grab the over/under or double underhooks, & push opponents to the fence. Salikhov doesn’t have the best control in the clinch & mostly just looks to disengage & attack with elbows off the breaks. Salikhov doesn’t go for takedowns. Muslim’s takedown defense is pretty solid. He digs underhooks well, uses the cage to defend & is explosive with sprawls. I don’t think Staropoli will be able to or even try to take Muslim down. Salikhov has two arm triangle victories. Those were both against extremely low-level competition. Salikhov has lost both of his matches by rear naked choke. Salikhov fights at a deliberate pace & doesn’t get tired. He is a veteran & knows what he needs to do in there. He will be looking to keep it standing and land the knockout.
Laureano Staropoli
Age: 26
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: Chute Boxe Diego Lima
From: Argentina
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 62
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: +150
Laureano Staropoli had a dominant victory over a legend in Thiago Alves his last go around. He was scheduled to face Alexey Kunchenko in September but was forced out due to an injury. Staropoli likes to brawl but was much more technical in his last match in the first two rounds. Staropoli is light on his feet with good movement & is very athletic. In his match with Thiago Alves, he was able to move, use kicks & straight punches to keep Alves on the outside. He will switch stances & is light in & out. He has a nice jab & a very nice one-two. He will throw a jab, left hook or a left hook, straight-right hand combination. He will wain forward with heavy hooks in combination. He will throw a one-two to a leg kick combination. He will go body, head with hook combinations & mix in uppercuts. He will throw spinning backfists & flying knees. He will throw spinning backfists into round kicks to the body or head. He is athletic & always tries to counter back when someone throws on him. Staropoli will throw a lot of jumping kicks to the body & head. Staropoli doesn’t have one punch power & is more of a volume fighter. He does have 5 KO/TKO’s in 9 wins. Staropoli was knocked out in his one loss.
Laureano Staropoli is a questionable grappler. In this matchup, I don’t see either fighter going for a takedown. Staropoli has 0 takedown attempts in his two UFC fights. Staropoli was taken down in round 3 by Thiago Alves but was able to quickly move back to his feet & disengage. I don’t think Staropoli will have to defend any takedowns or attempt any himself. It could be a smart game plan to try to implement some takedowns, but I don’t think he has the skill set to do so. Muslim isn’t just super easy to takedown. Staropoli has 2 submissions in 9 wins. He has never been submitted. Staropoli is a young, confident fighter with good cardio. He throws a ton of volume & can keep a high pace for three rounds.
This is a dog or pass fight for me. Salikhov is the more decorated striker and has more power as well. He just doesn’t strike at a high pace and he will be out volumed against Staropoli. Staropoli is also more likely to land takedowns in this match and I think he will attempt a few. Salikhov probably needs the KO to get the win here, and it is possible he gets it, but at that line I would rather take the guy with more outs and I might take a 1u stab at that underdog line after I see weigh ins.
Staropoli is my preferred play here because he is a dog I think can win. I don’t think he has 100-point upside here, but he does have paths to victory and he is in play in all formats for that reason. I think Salikhov is in play for the early KO potential, but I would say GPP only and if he doesn’t get that KO in the 1st or 2nd round then he won’t score well. I will be hoping Staropoli can avoid the spinning shit and if he doesn’t get KO’d then I think he wins with volume and probably scores around 10x.
Winner – Laureano Staropoli via Unanimous Decision
Ciryl Gane $9,200 vs Don’Tale Mayes $7,000
Ciryl Gane
Age: 28
Height: 6’5
Weight: 241
Reach: 83”
Gym: MMA Factory
From: France
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 82
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-0
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -370
Ciryl Gane had an impressive UFC debut with a dominant first round submission victory over Raphael Pessoa. Gane is 4-0 but looks like he could be a serious prospect. Gane is also 12-0 in pro Muay Thai & his striking is great. He is not your typical HW. He has excellent movement, switches stances, and is very fast & fluid. He does hold his hands down, but he’s light on his feet bouncing in & out, & extremely hard to hit. He has great vision & sees shots coming. Gane is 6’5 with an 83” reach & uses it very well. He has a nasty jab. He will snap the head back of his opponents with the jab & it comes very fast. He will follow the jab with nasty straights to the head & body. He will throw the jab, switch stances & rip the straight punch to the body from both stances fluidly. He slips punches effortlessly & will use his slips to create new angles for shots. He has barely gotten hit in the fights I’ve seen, while lighting his opponents up. He has a nasty left hook & right uppercut. He will throw hard leg & oblique kicks. Gane will throw occasional body & head kicks but is mostly a puncher. He does have nasty front knees to the body that look devastating. When he gets opponents moving backwards, he will mix in spinning kicks & spinning backfists. Gane so far in his career has been able to pressure, back his opponents up, make them miss easily, counter & take them out. When he gets fighters hurt, he has great composure & picks his shots or puts on a barrage until he gets the finish. Gane gets very creative when he gets opponents backed up against the cage. He will throw double punches, spinning backfists, jump knees and is very dynamic. Gane has 3 KO/TKO’s. I haven’t seen Gane tagged or how he reacts to that, but he hits very hard. I do feel he is a little bit hittable.
Cyril Gane earned a submission victory in his UFC debut. Gane is taller than most opponents so he is effective in the clinch. He has a nice Muay Thai plum and will get double underhooks when opponents get too aggressive on the feet. Gane was able to use the double underhooks to push his last opponent to the cage & get a body lock takedown. Gane catches kicks well & uses that to get takedowns. When he took top position in his last match, he quickly finished the fight with an arm triangle. Gane is very aggressive with ground & pound. He throws the legs away & moves into side control well. Gane has good front chokes. He has two submissions in his four victories. Gane is very cool, calm & collected & has shown good cardio into round two. He doesn’t waste a lot of energy & is very fluid, so I doubt he will gas unless he’s forced out of his comfort zone.
Don’tale Mayes
Age: 27
Height: 6’6
Weight: 254
Reach: 81.5”
Gym: Jackson Wink MMA
From: Indiana
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 94
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +310
The third time was the charm for Don’tale Mayes on the Dana White Contender Series. Mayes went 2-1 on the show, finishing his opponent in his last two appearances. With 4 consecutive wins he is confident he can make an impact in the UFC. Mayes is a very tall fighter as well & actually taller than Gane standing 6’6. Mayes is actually very athletic & fights like a small guy. He uses a lot of lateral movement & stance switching. He will close the distance with decent straight punches & rear uppercuts. He will throw lead elbows & wide hooks in close range. He throws decent front & round kicks to the body & head. He actually has solid head movement and will duck & roll shots. He likes to use his slips to create openings for his spinning backfists. Mayes used to spin way too much & leave himself susceptible, but he seems to have improved that a bit. He will throw athletic moves like flying knees, jumping kicks, and when he gets confident he will start to flow. Mayes holds his hands low though & is very easy to hit. He throws everything wide in close range & fighters with good striking will definitely knock him out in my opinion. He doesn’t like being pressured & is very susceptible to low kicks. Mayes doesn’t have the biggest power, but at HW he obviously can knock fighters out. He landed a straight-left hand that dropped his last opponent & led to the finish. Mayes has 4 KO/TKO’s & has been finished once by strikes. Mayes’ cardio is very questionable.
Don’tale Mayes is to be commended for his improvements in his grappling. He went from having virtually no takedown defense vs Allen Crowder, to being pretty proficient. He was able to defend almost all the takedowns of college wrestler Mohammed Usman. He has gotten better at getting his back to the fence & using that to defend & stand back up. He will get an overhook, create space & throw nice knees to the head. He will throw nice elbows to the side of the head & makes opponents pay for takedown attempts. He will also counter with a kimura. Mayes won’t shoot takedowns, but he has decent sweeps off his back & will take top position with the kimura. He finished his last two DWCS opponent with ground & pound. Mayes isn’t a big submission threat. He has one submission victory in his career.
Gane has huge potential in this HW division and I think he is the better fighter everywhere here. These are big guys though and Mayes has big power, so he could KO Gane, but I think that is his only real shot. I like Gane to get a finish in this fight though and he could do it by KO or sub. I don’t hate him as a parlay piece this week and when his ITD line comes out, I might be interested in a shot on that.
Gane is going to be the chalk of the card but it is chalk I am willing to eat. I am a believer in his talent and with these guys having as much power as they do, I think it probably ends ITD. Vegas does too with the highest FDGTD line on the card at -515 and Gane ITD is -215. He is going to be a core play for me this week and I will have him in more than half my lineups to get a bit of leverage over the field. Mayes is in play for a low owned GPP dart shot. If he gets the KO, he will be less than 10% owned and he will kill off half the field who had Gane. I don’t think I get to Mayes with 20 or less lineups though so it will be Gane for me in all formats.
Winner – Ciryl Gane via 1st round (T)KO
Beneil Dariush $8,400 vs Frank Camacho $7,800
Beneil Dariush
Age: 30
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 72”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 10-4-1
Fight Matrix: 19
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -155
Beneil Dariush has bounced back winning back to back fights after two consecutive losses. With 3 consecutive victories, Dariush could probably get another top 10 matchup. Dariush is a good pressure striker. He has a nice jab, and a strong body kick. He has a nice straight-left hand and a good left hook. He closes distance very well with his punches. He likes to use a jab or straight-left hand to head kick combination. He has nice superman punches and spinning backfists. He is more of a counter striker and he likes to anticipate shots, block and return. He has nice step-in knees to the body. He has big power but only 3 finishes via strikes. He has a questionable chin. He got flatlined very badly against Edson Barboza, and most recently knocked out in less than 30 seconds. He has been finished 3 times by KO/TKO. He bounced back in a dominating way in his last match and has to have more confidence coming in here.
Dariush is a very strong grappler. He is a BJJ competitor, and black belt. He is good in the clinch, does an excellent job of getting the Muay Thai plum and landing big knees. He does a great job of digging underhooks and is strong with his clinch control against the cage. He has strong clinch takedowns and will shoot doubles against the cage. He was able to dominate Thiago Moises by controlling him against the cage & taking him down in his last fight. He is an elite BJJ player and on top is very dangerous. He throws heavy elbows and huge ground & pound. He also is a black belt and has won the no Gi world championships as a blue, purple, and brown belt. He is very hard to take down or control in the clinch himself but does get tired in grappling heavy matches and can start to get grinded out. Dariush has 6 submissions. He has good arm triangles and rear naked chokes. He had been submitted one time in his career. He is solid off his back, he will attack with omaplata sweeps and is active with subs. Dariush finished his last match with a very nice submission. Dariush has 7 submissions & has been submitted one time. Dariush has good cardio & can push hard for three or five rounds.
Frank Camacho
Age: 30
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: Team Oyama
From: Saipan
UFC Record: 2-3
Fight Matrix: 139
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +135
Frank Camacho had an excellent performance in his last match vs Nick Hein. He is becoming Frank Camacho 2.0 where he is more composed & fights to a game plan. He has steadily improved since training at Team Oyama. Camacho has good forward pressure, and has no problem sticking in the pocket & taking shots to keep opponents on the back foot. He has a nice jab & a good one-two. He will try to pull counter off his one-two, but he tends to lean back with his chin high. He will just eat the return shots and come back with hook & uppercut combos. He has a heavy overhand right. He will throw an overhand right, left hook combination. He will mix in hooks to the body. He likes to throw a left hook to the body to a straight-right hand. When he backs an opponent against the cage, he will plant his feet & let go with long combinations to the body and head. He did an excellent job of attacking the body in his last fight. Camacho doesn’t throw a ton of kicks, but he has a nice front & round kick to the body. He will throw the front kick, followed directly by the one-two. He will throw step-in knees to the body also. He tends to try to pour it on in round 3 regardless if he’s tired or not. He will start to walk opponents down much more & just be willing to absorb shots to give his own. I felt he actually beat Drew Dober by digging deep in round 3. Camacho tends to get very tired in segments of the fight but gets a second wind. He relies heavily on his chin, and it will be interesting to see if he comes back the same after that beating at the hands of Geoff Neal. He took a massive amount of damage before getting knocked out by a brutal head kick. He really struggled with the movement of Neal and barely landed any punches. Camacho hits hard, especially at 155. He has 16 KO/TKO’s but is still in search of his first one in the UFC. Camacho has been finished 4 times by KO/TKO.
Frank Camacho is a brown belt champion in Jiu-Jitsu & a solid wrestler. He is strong in the clinch. He likes to dig underhooks & land trip takedowns. He likes to get to side control & has pretty good guard passing. When he gets to side control, he likes to get a crucifix and attacks the body with knees. Fighters have been able to scramble up from bottom on him & I don’t think he has the greatest top control. He has strong takedown defense himself. He was able to reverse the takedown attempts of Drew Dober & take top position off his takedown attempts. He has a good single leg takedown also. When he was taken down by Damien Brown, Brown quickly took his back & almost choked him out. Camacho was saved by the bell. I don’t think Camacho will be able to control Dariush on top if he gets takedowns. He needs to avoid being put on his back, and keep the fight standing. Camacho has only 3 submissions & isn’t a big threat there. He has been submitted one time in his career.
Camacho is a live dog here if he can keep the fight standing. I do think he is the more powerful striker and he will be the one throwing more volume as well. He could win with a KO or a judge’s decision, if he can keep it standing. Dariush should have a big edge on the ground though if he can get it there. I have gone back and forth on this one, but I would rather pick the underdog in those situations, so I will take Camacho and hope this fight mostly plays out on the feet.
This is a fight I like a decent amount. Camacho fights at such a high pace that it will increase Dariush’s volume and I think the winner has a good shot at the optimal lineup at these prices. Camacho is going to be a core play for me this weekend and he is my favorite dog to click. When he wins, he scores highly, and he is a live dog in this spot. He will be high owned though and I like Dariush for that reason. He should be low owned himself and I think he can finish and maybe finish early himself. Camacho is going to likely be in my cash lineup though, so I will be rooting for him to get it done but having some Dariush is a nice hedge to all the Camacho exposure.
Winner – Frank Camacho via Split Decision
Michael Johnson $9,300 vs Stevie Ray $6,900
Michael Johnson
Age: 33
Height: 5’10
Weight: 156
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: Hard Knocks 365
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 11-10
Fight Matrix: 75
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -300
Michael Johnson is making the move up to LW after a 2-2 record at FW. Johnson was knocked out brutally in his last match, after winning the fight comfortably for 2.5 rounds. Johnson was taking on a knockout artist in Josh Emmett and won’t have such an opponent in Steven Ray. Michael Johnson is a very speedy, powerful striker. He is a southpaw & has great lateral movement. He will keep distance with his straight-left hand. He will throw jabs to the head & body & solid one-twos. He will attack the body with the straight-left hand as well. He will throw a nice right hook, straight-left hand. He has nice leg kicks. He has nice rear leg head kicks. He will stay in the pocket, rely on his speed & throw straights & hooks. When he connects, he can put fighters lights out. He is extremely fast and has fought much more technical in recent fights. He used to take more chances, stick around more in the pocket and look to land his left hook. He now is using much more lateral movement, staying long, hitting & not getting hit. He has largely dominated the stand up in his last three fights by Just out voluming his opponents. He has always had big power even at 155 lbs & you can’t get over aggressive with a guy like Johnson. He has 8 career KO/TKO’s. His most recent KO win is of Dustin Poirier who just recently fought for the UFC title. He has a great chin & good defense. He is very tough to finish standing but was knocked out badly in his last fight. He has been finished twice by strikes.
Michael Johnson was a juco wrestler, but doesn’t look for wrestling in his fights, it has actually been his weakness in UFC fights. He was able to get a nice double leg in his fight with Artem Lobov in round 3. He controlled him on the mat & sealed the round. I don’t see him wrestling at all in this fight. His lateral movement & hand speed make it hard for fighters to get inside on him. Even when he fought Khabib, he was able to land some shots & trouble him with his footwork early on in the fight. He has been taken down and dominated by Paul Sass, Myles Jury, Reza Madadi, Khabib Nurmagamedov, & Darren Elkins, and the path to victory against MJ is still to try to grind him out. He tends to not have much off his back & doesn’t have great get-ups. He will give his back to stand up & his rear naked choke defense is questionable. He got finished by rear naked choke by Darren Elkins & almost finished by Andre Fili. He has been submitted 4 times in the UFC and 8 times overall. He has just 3 career submissions & 0 in his 21 fight UFC career.
Stevie Ray
Age: 29
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: Tristar Gym
From: Scotland
UFC Record: 6-4
Fight Matrix: 58
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +250
Stevie Ray is making a quick turnaround after getting knocked out in round one against Leonardo Santos. Ray is fighting the last fight on his contract & definitely needs to win here to get another contract. Ray is a southpaw & has power in his shots. He is a solid, well-rounded fighter. He is a pretty low output striker and doesn’t use a lot of movement. He has pretty decent lateral movement and does a good job of cutting fighters off and keeping them near or against the cage. He has a nice one-two. He doesn’t tend to throw many jabs and throws his straight-left hand much more. He will close the distance with hard left and right overhands, and really will swing for the fences, but is a bit slow. He has a nice low leg kick as well, but he doesn’t throw it as often as I’d like to see. He will throw an inside leg kick to a straight-left hand. He will try to land spinning kicks to the head and the body when his opponent’s backs are against the cage. He will get into a full sideways karate stance at times & throw lead leg hook kicks to the head body & legs. He has a decent left leg round kick to the head. He can get caught standing right in front of opponents not doing much at times. Fighters have found a lot of success closing the distance with blitz attacks to the head, then immediately ducking under & getting a takedown. He also doesn’t throw in combination & it’s a lot of one shot at a time. He is low output & due to that he has had a lot of very close fights. Stevie Ray is a striker, but in this match, I expect him to grapple more. He is one of the slowest fighters in the division & facing one of the fastest in Michael Johnson. I think he will struggle at range with MJ. He has some good pop in his punches having 6 KO/TKO’s in 21 wins. He has been finished 2 time in his career with strikes. He did get KO’d badly by Paul Felder, Leonardo Santos, and rocked against Kajan Johnson so his chin could be going a bit. He is a tough dude and will continue to push forward unless you put him out.
Ray is strong for the division and a solid wrestler. He likes to get double leg takedowns when fighters are against the cage and has decent body locks. He is strong in the clinch and can control fighters against the cage. He will land some decent knees and elbows there, but it’s also where Paul Felder caught him. In this fight, I see him trying to use leg kicks & straight punches to back Johnson up & control him against the cage, and work for takedowns. Ray has been doing a lot of grappling matches lately, recently getting a slick leg lock finish of Paddy Pimblett. On top, he has decent ground and pound, and does a good job of controlling positions and being able to win scrambles. He has good rear naked chokes and leg locks. He will attack with arm triangles as well. Ray has been able to scramble & win positions on the ground vs elite fighters on the mat such as Joe Lauzon. Ray has 8 submissions in his career. He has been submitted 4 times himself.
I do think Johnson is the better fighter everywhere and he should have the edge in speed, volume, and power in what I believe will be a striking match. I don’t see him getting a finish here, but I do think he wins a clear decision on the scorecards. I don’t think we can play him at this line though so at this line I would say it’s dog or pass even though Johnson should have the edge everywhere.
This is a fight I am looking to avoid. I think Johnson is a safe win and a fine play in cash games. I just don’t love his price tag and if he doesn’t finish and these HWs do, he is off the optimal lineup. I do think he is a fine GPP pivot away from those higher owned HWs, but I will need more than 10 lineups before I take a shot on MJ here. I do think he wins and wins clearly though so I don’t want any shots on Ray, so it’s MJ or pass in all formats for me.
Winner – Michael Johnson via Unanimous Decision
Ben Askren $8,500 vs Demian Maia $7,700
Ben Askren
Age: 35
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 71”
Gym: Roufusport MMA
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 16
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -190
Ben Askren is entering the cage for the first time following a loss. Everyone knows about Ben Askren’s last fight by now, where he got knocked out in 4 seconds. Askren is a guy who I don’t think will dwell too much on losses, and I expect him to be in a good mental headspace here. If he loses it will just be because Demian Maia is better than him. Askren has a very low risk style & it may not be the most fan pleasing, but his wrestling gets the job done. His striking is not his strong suit, and he is not very dangerous. He will throw a jab & overhand right. He will throw occasional leg kicks. His hands are very sloppy & he solely throws them to close the distance. Once he gets opponents tired in later rounds from grappling, he can land some well-timed, stinging jabs. He will throw spinning backfists to close the distance. He will throw a left hook, straight-right hand. He likes to hold his hands out & open to parry & hand fight, but it makes him very hittable. He can get clipped with big overhands & straight punches. He can get hit with uppercuts & head kicks. He has a fantastic chin and has ate some big shots in previous fights. I’m not 100% sure if he’s ever gotten a standing KO/TKO, but he has 6 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Ben Askren’s wrestling & top game are top notch. He is a two-time NCAA Division 1 champion. When he gets in on the legs or a body lock & gets his hands together, there is no more defending the takedown. He has great double legs & can slam opponents with force. He will get nice body locks in the clinch. He will use a single leg, along with an ankle pick takedown. He does a great job of shooting in on the legs, coming up into a body lock & driving through on a takedown. He will shoot over & over if opponents defend & is relentless. In top position, Askren is amazing. He loves to get to side control & then the crucifix position. He will rain down heavy shots from there & has good control. He likes to get into the wrestling ride position where he will control a leg, get a seatbelt grip & land punches with the free hand. He will take the back & mount once his opponents are weathered and try to finish the fight. On the back, he will flatten opponents out, and go for ground & pound. He will attack with arm triangles & rear naked chokes. He has 5 career submissions. He is excellent at keeping top position, wearing on opponents, and keeping fighters on their backs. He has no problem going on his back either. His nickname is Funky & he does a fantastic job of creating scrambles. He will use butterfly hooks to offset the balance of opponents & slip out the back or get an underhook & come up into body locks. He will go for leg locks. He isn’t a big submission threat & likes to use more ground & pound. Askren has 6 submissions & has never been submitted.
Demian Maia
Age: 41
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: Demian Maia Jiu-Jitsu
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 21-9
Fight Matrix: 13
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +165
Demian Maia will be looking to run his record in 2019 to 3-0. At 41 years old Maia is still turning back up & comers like Rocco Martin showing he is still a beast. Maia did gas hard in the third round of that match, and this will be a five-round contest. Maia is a southpaw striker, and he will pump out a jab followed by a straight-left hand. He will throw a straight-left hand, right hook combination. He has a nice round kick to the body, and overall is a very aggressive striker. He isn’t afraid to get hit like most Jiu-Jitsu fighters, instead he wanes into the fire and invites it. He does get tired quickly from striking and doesn’t have great defense. He leans into his shots making him susceptible to counters, as well as standing very heavy on his lead leg. He also doesn’t have great movement when he tires and will just defend with a high guard. He has always shown a fantastic chin, and while consistently fighting the best in the world time in & time out. He has only been KO’d one time. He has had many fights, especially recently, where he wins without taking any damage. That has helped him keep his durability this far into his career. He isn’t a big threat to get a KO/TKO with only 3 in his career.
Demian Maia has been putting on grappling displays in the octagon since 2007. He had yet another amazing performance in his last match winning by rear naked choke after virtually taking no damage. He is arguably the best BJJ practitioner to ever grace the octagon, and he has added the wrestling to go along with that. Maia has a tremendous single leg, and once he gets a hold of a fighter’s leg, it is like a death grip. He will try to dump opponents immediately, and has immense strength, especially at 170. He doesn’t mind going to his back off the single leg attempt, and this is where he is truly special. His half guard sweeps are a thing of beauty. He gets an underhook and will elevate opponents to get into a body lock or sneak out the back door & take the back. Maia is excellent at taking the back from standing position as well. He likes to shoot a single, and then dig an underhook & push his opponents to the cage to reshoot or quickly jump on the back. On top, Maia is a monster, and when he takes opponents down they usually aren’t getting back up. He has great guard passing & works to get to side control or half guard immediately. He has great mounts once he gets to either position. He is always trying to create a scramble where he can take the back. He is one of the best backpacks in the sport, and extremely hard to get off your back. He will get the body triangle and look for the rear naked choke. He has no problem with just hanging out in back mount & riding out the round if opponents play it safe and taking the round. Maia has 13 submissions including 9 rear naked chokes.
This is likely going to be a 25-minute grappling match. We have one of the best wrestlers in the sport vs one of the best BJJ players in the sport and I don’t think we see a ton of striking in this one. I do like Askren in this one though because I think he will be landing the takedowns and I don’t see him getting submitted from the bottom. I think he wins with takedowns and ground strikes, but I don’t see him finishing. If this does stay striking for some reason I think Maia is the better striker and I think he might be more likely to get a finish as well if he can get takedowns of his own. I have to lean with the favorite though with his wrestling ability, but I don’t think there is much value in the line at this point.
Usually, I am all-in on main events and I am stacking in cash games. That is not the case here. I don’t know that we have 100+ guaranteed points in this fight and I could see the winner scoring less than 90. They will also come with high ownership, so it makes me like the fade to be contrarian. For me, Askren is the preferred play because I think he will be the one landing takedowns. I just don’t know what his upside is with limited advances and very little shot of finishing early. He won’t be landing many sigs strikes on the feet, so it could just depend on how many of his punches from Maia’s guard count. I think Maia has the better shot of finishing in the early rounds and he will have the edge on the feet for the first time maybe ever. I will have shares of both sides, but I will have more Askren and he is the cash game option for me if I use the main event at all. If I am making 10 lineups this week, I would think I have maybe 4 Askren, 2-3 Maia, and then fade the fight 3-4 times.
Winner – Ben Askren via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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