What’s up everyone?! Welcome to The Inside Line: Xfinity Series. Larkin8 here and this week we will be covering all the drivers participating in the Go Bowling 250 NASCAR XFINITY Series race at Richmond Raceway. If you have any other questions be sure to jump into the NASCAR Talk slack channel for assistance from our NASCAR coaches. You can follow me on Twitter @Larkin8
Christopher Bell $12,100
going to be really hard to bet against Bell this week. Winner of both races here in 2018 and has led 219 laps in the last three Richmond races. Gibbs absolutely dominates Richmond and another similar track Iowa. If I had to pick one driver to dominate this race Bell is the guy. We simply need to pay attention to practice to verify no other challengers can dethrone him.
Cole Custer $11,600
Custer has run six races at Richmond with only one top five. That one top five was a win here in the spring after leading 122 laps. It is hard to tell if the team just hit on the setup for one race and was also aided by Bell’s incident with Gragson or if he is a legit contender this week. He has been really good on the tracks where tires fall off and considering the depth of the field I expect him to finish inside the top five. Only question is if he can get the dom points need to pay off this price.
Tyler Reddick $11,200
Reddick has gotten better each Richmond race but has never led a single lap here. He is a top five finisher simply due to the level of competition but I am limiting expectations for him this week. I expect a solid run where he stays out of trouble and collects a solid points day.
Justin Allgaier $10,600
Since 2017 Allgaier has led more laps than any other driver at Richmond with 280. He is a sneaky dark horse for the win yet again. He almost never qualifies at the very front so he will likely offer a few place diff points, a decent amount of fast laps and could very possibly lead some laps. Definitely want some Allgaier this week.
Noah Gragson $10,000
Gragson finished 2nd here in his first career start last spring. He also drove from 12th to inside the top five early in the spring race this year before getting into an accident with Christopher Bell. He definitely appears to have a good feel for this track. Top five threat and could scoop up a few fast laps as well.
Chase Briscoe $9,800
Briscoe finished 8th here earlier this season. He has been a top 10 car all year long and occasionally can grab top 5s. The 8th place finish was his worst on all short tracks this year however. He is has an average finish of 4.4 on short tracks in 2019 and has a win at Iowa and a second place at Bristol in his last two. Strong contender for a top five finish this week.
Austin Cindric $9,600
Richmond has been one of Cindric’s best oval tracks early in his career. Through three races he has an average finish of 6.67 but more importantly two top five finishes. It could go under looked that he has been a top driver here the last two years. While I still don’t like him to grab a ton of dom points I do think he can be a really strong stud type play this week. Not someone to shy away from if things lineup post qualifying.
Brandon Jones $9,400
On equipment alone he will be a top ten car. Problem is he doesn’t always secure the finishes he should. Never comfortable recommending too much Jones and this week is no different. Horrible track record and limited upside. If he qualifies poorly he is worth a shot in some gpp lineups.
Michael Annett $9,200
Since joining JRM in 2017 Annett has struggled to find his form here at Richmond. He has only one top 10 and an average finish of 14th. My guess would be a lack of ability to maintain speed on the long run has hindered him here. If this is the case it is unlikely he will have gotten any better at it this time around. He has a chance at a top ten but I do think he has a limited upside this week.
Harrison Burton $9,000
Burton is back in the #18 for Joe Gibbs. I expect him to run up towards the front and score a top five finish. This team is fantastic here even helping Noah Gragson to a 2nd place finish in his first ever Xfinity Series race. The speed will be there and as we saw at Iowa he can get the job done with a great car. Really like Burton this week.
Zane Smith $8,800
Zane finished 6th here in the spring driving the #8 and followed that up with strong finishes of 5th and 9th at Iowa. I believe he will finish well inside the top ten this week. Smith has shown great consistency with finishes of 11th or better in five of his last six races.
Justin Haley $8,600
Haley has scored a top ten in 17 of 26 races so far in 2019. He has also finished top 15 in 23 of 26 and has only one finish worst than 17th. He is incredibly solid for a cash play and if he offers some good place diff I like him to score a top 10 and be a good gpp play too.
John H. Nemechek $8,400
JHN has been lights out on the short tracks this year. Three top 5s and a worst finish of 8th on such tracks including a 7th at Richmond. While the team is obviously struggling as of late due to lack of funding the one place it can be overcome is here at Richmond. Nemechek is a good bit above his contemporaries in terms of talent and it shows on tracks where driver has more input. Top ten is very likely and a strong shot at a top five on driver ability alone.
Ryan Sieg $8,200
Was rather surprised after seeing Seig finished 5th here earlier this season that he only has three additional finishes inside the top 15 in his career here. He should be a threat for a top ten but something tells me we shouldn’t put too much stock into the 5th place finish and we should focus more on his 20th place career average here.
Gray Gaulding $8,000
I am happy with this pricing situation from Gaulding. He has been a fantastically consistent scorer all year on DK . This will make it a harder to play him which I believe shakes things up a bit. I expect gaulding to run somewhere around 15th this week and could do a little better with a couple top drivers having issues. As always a really good cash play.
Jeremy Clements $7,800
Clements has only qualified inside the top 15 twice in his last 17 races here at Richmond. If this trend continues he could be a fantastic play. I believe he will finish well inside the top 15 this week. Consistent as anyone. Great value play for both cash and gpp.
Garrett Smithley $7,700
Smithley has a rather poor history here even for his standards. He did start 20th and finish 19 in the Spring though. He has an average finish of 26th here and that is largely due to the low number of DNFs at this track. I expect him to finish mid 20s but could end up around 20th if everything goes his way. Place diff play.
Brandon Brown $7,500
Brown finally got back on track last week with a 16th place finish. He drove the #93 for Ryan Sieg’s team back in the Spring but this week we will see him back in his own #86 car. I expect him to run inside the top 20 roughly 17th or so. He will be a step off Gaulding and Clements so his value will come if he offers place diff to out score them.
Joe Graf Jr $7,300
Graf has failed to qualify for two race out of the four he has attempted so far in 2019. One of which was Bristol. He did end up with a decent 19th place finish at Iowa due to attrition. He definitely lacks the overall skill at this time to really challenge for a great finish but with the right place differential could be good. A driver who will benefit from always having fresh tires and not having to run scuffs.
Josh Williams $7,100
Williams has never made a race here at Richmond. It appears like most short track races he is a top 20 car. It will be interesting to see if he is able to not wear tires out and keep a good pace.
Landon Cassill $6,900
Cassill is driving the #89 for the Morgan Sheppard. No idea what exactly Morgan is high on but either way this is a start and park.
Ray Black Jr $6,700
In the first 13 races of this year Black only had 6 top 20 finishes. In the last 13 races he has almosted doubled that number to 11 top 20s. He has become incredibly consistent much like his teammate Gaulding. He has a mediocre history here but that only makes me like him even more. Top 20 fully expected with top 15 upside if race breaks his way. Will be interesting to see how many people are on him ownership wise.
Ryan Repko $6,500
Repko will be driving the #01 for JDM this week. He has driven twice with both races coming at Iowa. He finished 22nd and 25th in those races. Expectations will be for him to finish top 25 again so depending on where he qualifies he could be a decent play.
Stephen Leicht $6,400
Really like Leicht this week. His best runs have come at the short tracks where he can out drive everyone else. He has 3 top 20s short tracks this year including an 18th here in April. Plan for top 25 finish but he does carry top 20 upside. Great punt play.
BJ McLeod $6,200
Really rough history here at Richmond. Will definitely scare some people off and for good reason. This team can definitely score a top 25 though so if he qualifies bad enough give him a shot in some gpps.
Vinnie Miller $6,000
Miller will be driving the #5 this week. Same team just a number swap essentially. If he qualifies horribly yet again he is a safe punt play. 25th place is probably best case scenario this week though.
Ronnie Bassett Jr $5,900
He will be driving the #90 this week. His brother Dillon drove for this team here in April and did a great job finishing 15th. Only problem is Dillon may have also destroyed that car running into the back of a track sweeper at Iowa while running top 15. Either way this team has a decent short track program and Bassett can definitely score a top 20 finish. Solid punt play.
Matt Mills $5,800
Mills will be driving the #99 this week. Much like Miller this is basically just a number swap, still driving for BJ McLeod’s team. Definitely a top 25 car will be on Mills to get it there. All about how much place diff he can offer.
Mike Marlar $5,700
Marlar is a dirt racing specialist who you may remember finished 4th at Eldora earlier this year. There is little in terms of asphalt background to go off of but the #66 car he is driving this week is a decent one. Hard to gauge this situation but I think the driver has ability and the car is good enough for a top 25. Outside shot at top 20 if he can adapt quickly.
Cj McLaughlin $5,500
Back driving the #93 this week for Ryan Sieg. Lack of ability here but the car is decent. Upside will be inside the top 25. WOrth a shot if he qualifies poorly.
Joey Gase $5,400
Averaging a 22nd place finish is last three Richmond races. If the car holds up he is a decent play. The more place differential he offers the better a play he will be.
Tyler Matthews $5,300
Matthews driving the #74 for Mike Harmon this week. Limited upside in a poor car.
David Starr $5,200
Starr has a rather unreliable car in general but at times can sneak into the top 25. He could be a good play in the right circumstances but he comes with a decent amount of risk.
Stan Mullis $5,100
Sytart and park. fade
Chad Finchum $5,000
Seems like every time Finchum has been racing lately it has been a start and park situation. This has me worried. He will be driving the #61 this week which has had some decent runs. We will have to wait and see how practice looks to see if he is worth the risk
JJ Yeley $4,900
LOVE JJ Yeley this week. Finally we get to play Yeley who is a top 20 threat. He will be driving the #78 for BJ Mcleod. He has been a start and park for the last two years so everyone will be off of him. Be sure to get some coverage especially if he qualifies 25th or worse. Great sneaky low ownership situation here.
Bayley Currey $4,800
Start and Park. Fade.
Hermie Sadler $4,700
Driving the #38 for Ryan Sieg. Hermie is a bad retired driver. His car is decent enough for him to score a top 25 though and at this price could be a good play. Would much rather be on Yeley but Sadler could score mid 20s on DK