What’s up everyone?! Welcome to The Inside Line: Xfinity Series. Larkin8 here and this week we will be covering all the drivers participating in the Rhino Pro Truck Outfitters 300 NASCAR XFINITY Series race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. If you have any other questions be sure to jump into the NASCAR Talk slack channel for1` assistance from our NASCAR coaches. You can follow me on Twitter @Larkin8
Christopher Bell $11,700
Bell is one of the elite drivers in the field that will definitely be contending for the race win and dom points. I like Custer and especially Reddick more this week but you can never count Bell out. He has finished top 5 in two of his three Vegas races but has only led a total of 9 laps. Definitely need some coverage because he can dominate any race but I do believe there are more likely doms.
Cole Custer $11,200
Custer led 47 laps here in the spring but fell to 9th by race end. He is a fantastic qualifier and if he qualifies on the pole like he has the last two Vegas races I like him to be the early race dominator. He is a definite top 5 car and someone I do believe can win this race. He is a race long contender for fast laps as well as his team has been incredible on the high speed tracks in 2019.
Tyler Reddick $10,800
My personal favorite to win this week is Tyler Reddick. Reddick led 62 laps here in the spring before wrecking late trying to pass Kyle Busch for the lead. He was really the only driver who had the speed to contend with KB at the end of that race. Reddick has finished top 5 in 8 of the 9 races on the standard high speed 1.5 -2.5 mile tracks including two wins. Had the fastest car in qualifying trim during first practice and I fully expect him to grab tons of fast laps and laps led throughout the race.
Justin Allgaier $10,400
Allgaier has been fantastic here at Vegas since joining JRM. He had engine issues in March which saw him finish 31st. Prior to that he had three straight finishes of 4th or better and led 28 laps. While I do expect the big three the be the clear favorites there is no ignoring Allgaiers consistent finishes at the front. The other positive for Allgaier is that in those three top 5s he had positive place differentials of +9, +9 and +6 so do not be thrown off if he doesn’t qualify at the front.
Noah Gragson $10,000
The Las Vegas native Gragson was able to score a 3rd place finish here early this year due to the late race carnage around him. He was about an 8th to 10th place car all day prior to that. Since that point Gragson has been a constant top 5 threat at almost every track type. He is a little high priced for a driver who lacks the dom ability but he is definitely a top 5 caliber car.
Chase Briscoe $9,800
Briscoe has finished 8th or better in 20 of the last 23 races. He is as steady as they come and is a legit top 5 threat. He finished 8th in the spring race here but his team has only gotten better since then and I expect a strong showing this week. He was also 2nd fastest in first practice.
Austin Cindric $9,500
Cindric is a solid top 10 play most weeks but has only secured 1 top 5 on intermediate tracks so far this year. Unless he offers some solid place differential from a poor qualifying effort it is hard to imagine he will meet the value needed to finish in the optimal lineup.
Elliott Sadler $9,300
Elliott Sadler returns for what is the last scheduled race of his career driving the #10 for Kaulig racing. Sadler finished 12th for them back at Richmond in the spring which was his only start in 2019. He has finished 8th or better in his last four Xfinity races at Vegas and Austin Dillon did score a 4th place finish here in March. This car will be solid but his upside is limited. He can definitely get around this track well and I believe he will finish back end of the top 10.
Brandon Jones $9,100
Because Vegas favors the elite teams this track is perhaps Jones’ best overall. He has three finishes of 7th or better in his five races here and was running up front this past spring before a late wreck saw him finish 28th. This could be a good week to jump on some Jones ownership.
Michael Annett $8,900
Annett finished 5th here in March which took myself and probably everyone by surprise. He then followed that up with finishes of 6th, 6th, 3rd and 4th on the next four 1.5 tracks. This team obviously has something figured out on this style of track. I don’t see him contending with the elite but he can definitely get to that 6th-8th range and with the right place diff be a fantastic play.
Justin Haley $8,700
Haley has finished inside the top 10 in every single 1.5-2.5 mile track this year. He has lived in that 7th to 10th range and often offers 3-5 place worth of place diff. Very solid overall play this week.
Ryan Truex $8,500
Truex is back behind the #8 for JRM this week. This team has been about a 5th to 8th place car in every single race this season no matter which of the 8 different driver were in the car. There is legit speed here and I fully expect Truex to run close to the top 5 for most of this race. Really good price here for the last of the true top 5 contenders.
John H. Nemechek $8,300
Nemechek was the biggest beneficiary of the late race carnage in March as he ended up finished 2nd. This type of finish would honestly be unrealistic this week. He is a top 10 contender but over the last few months we have seen the level of performance of this team go down as rumors of the team possibly shutting down have appeared. Driver is still really good and car is good enough but limit overall expectations.
Riley Herbst $8,200
Herbst has taken one of the best cars in the field and found a way to struggle to secure top 10s. There is a clearly lack of readiness or possibly ability here with Herbst. He finished 10th and 11th in his two 1.5 mile races this year and that is roughly what we should expect this week. Car can carry him to a top 10.
Ryan Sieg $8,000
Sieg has finished top 10 at every 1.5 mile track this year except one where he ended up 12th. I expect him to run around the 10th position for most the race and with the right place diff. can be a fantastic mid tier play.
Garrett Smithley $7,800
Smithley’s stats here are about the same as every other track. Finishes around 20th place and offers good place diff. If he starts in the very back which he does often then I like him as a mid tier play.
Brandon Brown $7,600
Somehow Brown jumped up $900 in cost after his third straight horrific race. He has hit a rough patch but this is still a top 20 car. Look for a bounce back week for him finishing position wise and his DK value will rest on where he qualifies.
Gray Gaulding $7,500
Gaulding scored another top 15 last week. It is basically a given he will finish around 13th-17th every race. Fantastic cash play yet again with some gpp upside if he qualifies 17th or worse.
Jeremy Clements $7,300
Clements is a top 15 car again this week and we will look for a little place differential to help add to his value. !5th and 13th in his last two races here.
Alex Labbe $7,200
Back in the #90 this week, Labbe will run within the top 20. He finished 16th and 17th in the two Vegas races last season. I expect him to duplicate those runs again this week.
Ray Black Jr $7,000
Black had a fantastic finish here early in the season finishing 11th. While that is a bit high Black has finished top 20 in 12 of the last 15 races in 2019. I like him to contend for a top 15 this week. Very solid play.
Josh Williams $6,900
Williams has been a top 20ish car almost all year on this style of track. He tends to struggle in qualifying and always offers decent place diff. which I expect to be the case again this week.
Landon Cassill $6,700
Cassill is back in the #89 this week. He will be a start and park. fade.
Stephen Leicht $6,600
Leicht is roughly a 25th place car on a weekly basis. He can do a little bit better with some carnage. Price is a little high as multiple drivers can match his performance below him.
Ja Junior Avila $6,400
Driving the #99 for BJ Mcleod this week. He was able to finish 25th here in March but he is very limited overall. Need lots of place diff help.
BJ McLeod $6,300
Mcleod has finished 19th and 20th in his last two races here driving for JDM. He seems to have a decent feel for the track. I think that is a bit high if race is relatively clean so look for him to be inside the top 25 with a little more upside with some DNFs.
Matt Mills $6,100
Mills has been a solid Punt play all year. He does a good job staying out of trouble and securing top 25 finishes with good place diff. If he qualifies 30th or worse I really like him not just this week but every week.
Vinnie Miller $6,000
We always know what we will get from Miller. Horrific qualifying effort and decent overall DK points. He has averaged 26 points over the last five races on DK. If he starts in the back he is always worth a play.
David Starr $5,800
Starr overall is one of the best of the ultra punt plays. He can sneak into the 20th-22nd range on any given week. However, he also has consistent reliability issues. If he starts far enough back I always like having some coverage as he can end up scoring well but keep in mind there is some risk with him.
Stan Mullis $5,700
Driving the #13 this week. Start and Park. Fade.
Cj McLaughlin $5,500
Ran a ton of laps in practice driving the #93 for Ryan Sieg Racing. No real concern of a start and park for this week. Believe this is about a 25th to 28th place car and driver situation this week.. could be worth a shot in certain situations.
Mike Harmon $5,400
Harmon will ride around collecting as many points as possible. Reliability issues always a concern and has lowest upside of everyone in the field. Worth a shot starting in very back and hoping for carnage.
Joey Gase $5,200
Gase is averaging a 22nd place finish the last four races. He was one of the slowest cars in practice though and there is always a start and park / reliability issue with Gase. Worth a shot in some gpps but play light.
Tyler Matthews $5,100
Matthews is driving the #15 this week for JDM. He has ran three races for this team before with finishes of 20th, 24th and 32nd. Expectations for Matthews is around 25th but with a little carnage can get near the top 20.
Tommy Joe Martins $5,000
Martins is in the #61 car this week. This car has shown some good speed over the last couple weeks and if they attempt the entire race is my favorite play under $6,900. This is a top 20 car for sure when it runs the full event. Slight start and park concern but no real way to tell.
JJ Yeley $4,900
Start and park fade.
Chad Finchum $4,800
Finchum is driving the #66 this week. Top 25 car if they run the entire race. Slight start and park concern much like his teammate Martins.
Kyle Weatherman $4,700
Start and park. Fade.