What’s up everyone?! Welcome to The Inside Line: Xfinity Series. Larkin8 here and this week we will be covering all the drivers participating in the Indiana 250 NASCAR XFINITY Series race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. If you have any other questions be sure to jump into the NASCAR Talk slack channel for assistance from our NASCAR coaches. You can follow me on Twitter @Larkin8
Kyle Busch $13,000
Not to shock anyone but Kyle is elite here. Three wins and a runner up in his last five Indy Xfinity starts. He also was the main dominator in the other race leading 44 laps before finishing 12th. He will be the big favorite again this week but at this price he might be avoidable. Indy has a massive draft which will spread the fast laps through out the field and with only 100 laps total the number of dom points is limited. It is possible for him to pay off but the punt plays will have to pay off well. In the two races here with stages the most laps anyone has led was 44 by Kyle in 2017. Allgaier led 41 in route to the win last year. He may win but scoring enough dom points to end up in the optimal will be tough.
Christopher Bell $11,500
Bell looked really good in practice and was seemingly able to get huge runs and make passes on anyone he wanted. He will be a big threat for the win this week but like KB the price is rough. If he can offer some place diff and finish top 3 he should be viable though. The draft here makes finishing positions a little harder to predict as one poor decision or bad run can lead to a driver finishing multiple spots worse than where they probably should have. Finished 7th here last season in his only Indy start.
Tyler Reddick $10,800
Started 18th and finished stage one in 7th back in 2017 before wrecking on lap 38. He then followed it up with a 2nd in here in 2018. He is a very aggressive driver which lends itself to this type of racing. He will likely team up with Austin Dillon and Justin Haley and try to work his way to the front. Reddick has been a top 5 machine this year and I would expect the same again this week.
Cole Custer $10,300
Custer Finished 5th in 2017 and was a top 5 car all last year before a late wreck. His team always has elite speed on the big tracks but not sure the Ford have the suck up ability in the draft nor enough teammate help to get a win. Top 5 upside for sure but can easily see this race working against Custer and him finishing a little further back than normal.
Justin Allgaier $9,900
Winner here last year. JRM always has exceptional drafting car and work well together. No surprise Allgaier was 2nd fastest in average speed in final practice behind teammate Annett. I expect JA to be aggressive this week seeing it as one of his last shots at some playoff bonus points. Might not seem like much but with how many Custer, Bell, Reddick and Cindric have at this moment every point could matter come the last couple races. I like JA as a top 5 car and a threat for the win.
Austin Cindric $9,700
Cindric wrecked early here last season so he has very little to show as experience here. He will be a top 10 car but the aggression and drafting style simple aren’t his specialty. With the right run late he can improve his finish but I expect him to be towards the back end of the top 10.
Chase Briscoe $9,500
First race here for Briscoe. I expect him to do his best to work with teammate Custer to try and stay towards the front. Like Custer he has a top 5 upside. Solid driver who almost always finds himself inside the top 10. He could end up with a poor qualifying effort as he has done this from time to time giving him fantastic place diff.
Noah Gragson $9,300
Furst time for Gragson here at Indy. He will be driving one of the elite JRM cars so he is another driver who can get into the top 5. My expectation is that his inexperience will hinder him and he will likely end up towards the back end of the top 10. Still a good play in right situation.
Justin Haley $9,100
Turned the fastest lap in final practice with Kaulig teammate Dillon 4th and RCR affiliate Reddick 2nd fastest. The Kaulig cars were incredibly fast at Daytona which offers a similar straight line speed dependency. I like Haley as a very sneaky top 5 play especially if he can get paired up with Dillon and Reddick. Because of the draft and the way things race there are a lot of “top 5 upside” drivers but Haley is one of my favorites due to the lower ownership and performance of their cars.
John H. Nemechek $8,900
Nemechek is a driver I like but with a lack of overall speed and no true teammates to work with this will be an uphill battle most the day. He will be a top 10 threat but I don’t have ultra high expectations for him. 13th in practice and that is roughly where I see him finishing.
Michael Annett $8,700
Since joining JRM Annett is 0 for 2 here at Indy with finishes of 25th and 31st. This doesn’t concern me though as he is a legit top 10 car and another driver I believe can contend for a top 5. He had the fastest average speed in final practice. Really solid mid range play especially since his price has come down a bit.
Austin Dillon $8,600
Dillon has an average finish here of 8th in three career starts which includes an 8th here last year for Kaulig in the #10. This team has show fantastic speed on the bigger tracks including a dominating performance at Daytona. I expect Dillon to run towards the top 5 and be a contender for the win if they can beat out the Gibbs and JRM cars.. Fantastic price here for Dillon.
Brandon Jones $8,400
Perhaps the best track for Brandon Jones. He has three top 10s in three races here. He showed fantastic speed in practice and much like teammate Bell had incredible suck up and passing ability in the draft. Good price here for a top 10 and potentially top 5 driver.
Ryan Sieg $8,200
Sieg has averaged a 15th place finish his last 5 races here. His equipment is better this year than in the past and has been really good on the bigger tracks. Top 10 upside for sure but likely to finish just outside the top 10 around 12th. Still a good play at this price especially if he can offer some place diff.
Garrett Smithley $8,000
Smithley has finished 23rd, 21st and 20th in 3 career races. Not much variation from that this week so if he qualifies poorly he is a decent play. This price is still too high though.
Jeb Burton $7,800
Jeb Burton driving the #8 for JRM this week will be another driver with top 10 upside. I expect there to be a learning curve for him working the draft but staying out of trouble he should do just fine. This car has elite speed just up to the driver to deliver a good finish.
Jeremy Clements $7,700
Pretty much same as every week. Clements will be a top 15 car. Not as good as the elite teams but a good step above everyone else in the field.
Gray Gaulding $7,500
Gaulding got back to his normal ways with a 16th place finish last week. Yet again he is a safe play who will finish 13th-17th.
Josh Williams $7,300
Williams has really been struggling as of late but good news is his equipment should be good enough to right the ship this week. Ended up a late DNF here last year after a suspension failure and finished 24th. Look for him to run around 20th all day.
Austin Hill $7,100
Hill will attempt to make his Xfinity debut for the 2nd time this year. His team had an issue at Daytona and he wasn’t even able to make a lap. This week he will be driving the #61 for MBM. This team and sponsorship combo were able to finish 7th a Bristol a couple weeks ago with Timmy Hill. This is a top 20 car for sure. If a couple things go his way I can see Hill sneaking into the top 15.
Stefan Parsons $6,900
Parsons has finished 21st and 23rd his last two races in this 99 car. He isn’t likely to out drive many drivers but his car is decent enough to finish in this same area. With some solid place diff. he can be a good play.
Brandon Brown $6,700
Brown was 28th and 21st in practice but that could easily have been single car runs that weren’t draft aided. He has been roughly a 17th-20th place car most the year. That is what we should expect again. Great price here.
Ray Black Jr $6,600
Black much like his teammate Gaulding has been consistently around the 15th-17th position most of the season. During his last six races in 2019 he is averaging a 16.5 place finish and has scored a positive place differential of 46. If this trend continues Black will be a top play this week.
Josh Bilicki $6,400
Has a sponsor listed and ran 17 laps in practice so no worry about start and park this week. Bilicki was able to finish 21st at Michigan in the #93 car in the only comparable race. He will likely be able to match this and potentially better it by a couple positions.
Stephen Leicht $6,300
Like most weeks Leicht will likely end up around the 25th position with a little more upside. If he qualifies 30th or worse he could offer a decent score. Place differential dependent.
Matt Mills $6,100
Mills has been awful in qualifying but often found his way inside the top 25. Prior to last week where he had mechanical issues he had averaged a 20th place finish in the previous 4 races. He has become a really good punt play.
Landon Cassill $6,000
Cassill is driving the #4 for JDM this week. Chastain finished 12th and 16th the last two years here while driving this car. I don’t expect Cassill to have 12th place upside but I can certainly see ending up inside the 16th-18th place range. Still at $6,000 so he remains a solid play.
BJ McLeod $5,800
Mcleod actually finished 16th here last season but that was aided by the high DNF rate last year. He will end up being a top 25 car. Like most in this range it is all about the place differential he can offer. Safe driver overall.
David Starr $5,700
Starr was one of the big beneficiaries of last years DNF fest scoring an 18th place finish. That is not a realistic finish for this week but he can certainly get inside the top 25. Place differential key to his viability.
Ronnie Bassett Jr $5,600
Bassett is going to come in as the best punt play this week. He will be driving the #90 car as he has numerous times this season. This team finished 24th last year after a late DNF and its team car the #36 finished 19th. I think Bassett has a shot at sneaking into the top 20 this week.
Vinnie Miller $5,500
Will likely qualify very deep in the field and offer some good place diff. His upside at times has been around 22nd but with a stronger field than normal I expect him to end up in the 28th-30th range unless we get a carnage repeat of last year. Still worth a shot on a driver and team that does their best to finish the race.
Mike Harmon $5,400
WIll attempt the entire race but will be the slowest of the punts in doing so. Chance of being parked for not meeting minimum speed. He was 5 seconds off the leaders and two seconds off the car ahead of him in practice Will need a ton of carnage to get the place differential needed.
Joey Gase $5,300
Looks to have decent speed having run 22nd and 23rd in the two practice sessions. I do like the fact that the MBM team has multiple cars in the field and can work together at a drafting track such as Indy. Gase has reliability issues but a solid top 25 play this week.
Chad Finchum $5,200
Start and Park. fade
Tommy Joe Martins $5,100
Martins has driven the #66 twice this year and ran the entire race while doing so. Both were at road courses with short lap totals like Indy. That being said he only ran 5 practice laps which is rather concerning. My belief is they will attempt the whole race and be a top 25 car but there is some risk based off practice. Play with caution or look for safer plays.
JJ Yeley $5,000
start and park. fade.
Kyle Weatherman $4,900
Driving the #17 car this week which has been a start and park car almost every race. However, in the two previous race Weatherman has driven the car he has attempted the entire race. He drove 13 laps in practice as well. It appears he could be in play but will be one of the slowest cars out there. Play with caution but could offer some solid place diff if he starts towards the very back.
Morgan Shepherd $4,800
start and park. fade