Welcome to the Shark Autopsy Report chronicles, the chronicles deconstruct weekly winning DraftKings Milly Maker lineups of the NFL 2019 season. Over the course of the NFL season this article builds off of the “Dossier on How to Win the DraftKings Milly Maker” I wrote and published prior to week one of the 2019 NFL season. You may access the VIP article here. Deconstructing lineups that win massive tournaments such as the Milly Maker is not easy because we have to get into the mindset of the winning entrant and understand why the entrant utilized players in the lineup they used. As the author of the Shark Autopsy Report, I am here to tell you that your dreams can become reality with the right tools, lineup construction methodologies, hard work, and gumption!
The Milly Maker contest is a true tale of the tape contest that everyone in the industry knows about, discusses and writes about extensively throughout the course of the week. Many people think that lineup construction to win the Milly Maker tourney is all about constructing the most contrarian lineup possible, sometimes that is the case, but most of the times that is not the case.
Little Bit about the DFSArmy
For those of you who are new to Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) or are looking for that one DFS site that can propel your play to new heights, then look no further, the DFSArmy is a top notch, second to none DFS site that can provide you with the tools to construct quality DFS lineups like the pros use. At the DFSArmy, we pride ourselves on the ability of our coaches to teach and provide our members with the methodologies, processes, tools and thought processes to become an equitable DFS player, who can grow their bankroll with proper bankroll management and turn your everyday Joe into a DFS Pro. DFSArmy covers all of the DFS sports from the main 4 (MLB, NBA, NFL & NHL) to PGA, MMA, Soccer and College FB and BB. Additionally, DFSArmy has its own Sportsbook team to help you with sports betting. The DFSArmy is an all-in-one Fantasy Sports and Sportsbook site that you can’t afford to not be a member.
Synopsis of the Shark Autopsy Report Chronicles
Lineup deconstruction is vital to DFS’ers success and it’s why all of the DFS provider sites have members writing about, but other sites articles lack substance and are simply generic. Take a look at those articles and draw your own conclusions. As the author of the Chronicles, I am trying to break the code and help my readers do the same. The Chronicles will showcase: the Vegas closing lines and how those Vegas lines contributed to the winning lineup construction, is it vital to max enter,
The Shark Autopsy Report is different from the other DFS site’s lineup breakdown articles that you can read online, as there are a multitude of these types of articles. The Shark Autopsy Report dives deeper than those other lineup deconstruction articles showcasing: the top ten winning lineups (position-by-position), the number of lineups the top 10 DFS players entered into the contest, the average amount spent by position in the winning lineup, top 10 player ownership percentages, and week-to-week salary distributions of the top 10 lineups to determine if there’s salary correlation amongst the top ten lineups, to help better predict winning lineup construction in future weeks.
DraftKings $5M Milly Maker Contest
As DFS players, fish and sharks alike, we are so attracted to the light shining down from the DFS Universe of the $1M dollar first place prize in the DraftKings Milly Maker contest, and we pump a multitude of our bankrolls into these contests annually. Because of this, I understand why DFS sites are analyzing these winning lineups. It should be part of your repertoire as a DFS player to revisit the prior week’s winning lineups, not just for the Milly Maker and Sunday Million contests, but all of the contests you entered to see how the winning lineups were constructed. Additionally, you should be looking at your own lineups to determine WHY certain plays in your lineups went off and WHY other plays did not. This will ultimately make you a better player, but it will help you determine trends you may not have otherwise noticed if you were not reviewing over past week’s lineups.
Vegas Closing Lines
If you want the most comprehensive breakdown of how closing Vegas lines predictively determines future results, read my “Dossier on How to Win the DraftKings Milly Maker” in conjunction with each week’s Chronicles article.
The winning lineup utilized a stack of Lamar Jackson at QB and Marquise Brown at WR, in the Baltimore v. Miami game which had closing Vegas lines of 40.5 total points and a -7 spread. This was a game that many DFS pundits felt that the better play was on the Miami side of the ball and rostering Ryan Fitzpatrick as a stack starter at QB could have been a contrarian play that could take down big monies. But that fantasy was not played out in reality.
Time and time again the consistency of the RB spot is vital to the success of a lineup winning the Milly Maker and ownership should not play much of role in your lineup decision making for RBs. The winning Milly Maker lineup rostered three very high owned RBs in CMC, Carson, and Cook. These three RBs led to 100 DK pts and that is massive +EV for three positions with a total amount of salary utilized of 41%. In retrospect, start the RBs that are in smash spots regardless of the ownership and get the consistency of the position.
Stacking is the Most Advantageous Strategy
To make serious gains on your competitors and move up the leaderboards, you must learn how to construct lineups utilizing an artful stacking process! This doesn’t mean that you stack every game on the slate, but to choose those games you have researched and believe may go off on that given slate. In the winning Milly Maker lineup, the entrant utilized a stack that went off in a low projected closing Vegas lines game. The Lamar Jackson and Marquise Brown QB/WR stack yielded 7.2% ownership and 70.26 DK points. In the Dossier I pinpointed that the QB/WR stack was the highest utilized stacks in the winning Milly Maker lineups in 2017 and 2018 NFL seasons. Do we need to go crazy with our stacking combinations with game stacks and multiple stacks within one lineup (what I refer to as Stacks of High Society) on most slates? Maybe, but maybe not.
Stacking proves once again to hold true in the winning Milly Maker lineup and it continues to showcase that you must stack up your lineups in these tournaments.
Game Theory
Game theory is the analysis of strategies for dealing with competitive situations where the outcome of a participant’s choice of action depends critically on the actions of other participants. The strategy that was utilized in the winning lineup was very simple, determine a game that could lead to low ownership (via the unknown) and stack that game with a QB/WR stack. What was the unknown of this game, Lamar Jackson was the unknown and how he’d perform on the road in his first game of the season. Would he run for over 100 yards and a TD, but only throw for minimal amount of yardage, or would he do what he did and throw for 324 yards, 5 TD, and rush for only 6 yards. That was the strategic advantage the winning lineup had over the entire field and won the Milly Maker.
Tools I Utilize Weekly
I utilize every tool available to me from the DFSArmy’s vault of successful tools and coaches. I develop my own player projections and system that I utilize in the construction of my cash and GPP lineups. THE two DFSArmy tools I utilize the most in my thought processes and research of each slate is the FFootballGeek’s NFL Weekly Geeks Picks and the coaches notes. The other tools I utilize are the WR vs. CB breakdown chart (by the way, I develop this tool on a weekly basis), DFSArmy’s Research Station, FFootballGeek’s Early Look Vegas Lines Podcast, the Wolfpack podcast and the Player’s Club Podcast.
Entries to Glory
The number of times I have heard from many in the industry, most are fishes in the seas of sharks, that you need to enter the max number of lineups (150 max) to win the Milly Maker, doesn’t make me pity them it makes me want to educate them further. Now for some education, during the 2018 NFL season 94.1% (16 of 17 weeks) of the time the winning Milly Maker entrant DID NOT max enter the Milly Maker contest! Now fast forward to current, and last week the winning entrant of the Milly Maker did not max enter the Milly Maker, the entrant only entered 31 lineups into the Milly Maker.
To My Weekly Readers
I want to thank my weekly readers for reading the Shark Autopsy Report Chronicles this NFL season, it means a great deal to me and the DFSArmy!
As the chronicles article matures over the course of the NFL 2019 season and more data is captured, the article with evolve into a dynamic tool that you should utilize as part of your research arsenal to make you a better DFS player.
To conclude this installment of the Shark Autopsy Report, the DFS Army was started based on the concept that bring high-level tools, projections, and information to average players would allow them to compete on a level playing field with the DFS pros that have been dominating the industry for years. Check out our full Wall of Wins to see countless other screenshots from regular players utilizing DFS Army tools and advice to take down 6 figure prizes on a regular basis. Sign up as a DFS Army VIP today to take your game to the next level and start competing like a pro.