DFSArmy Explodes in FD and DK Millys’ Grabbing Top Prize on FD!
What an amazing week 3 of the NFL season for the DFSArmy! The Army had our first Million Dollar Winner in the FanDuel $3M Sunday Million contest, congratulations to Bobby! Also in that same contest, Army member bmcgeever placed 7th, that’s amazing to have 2 Army members in the top 10 of a massive top heavy contest of the FanDuel $3M Sunday Million contest!
If you haven’t listened to the amazing interview FFootballGeek did with Bobby, you can listen to the interview here. The interview delves into Bobby’s thought process for the slate and how he got onto certain plays that encompassed his million dollar lineup!
In week 3, the DFSArmy also had amazing feats on DraftKings, the author of the Shark Autopsy Report Chronicles placed 6th in the Milly Maker (if this is your first time reading the Shark Autopsy Report, the author placed 6th in the Milly Maker during week 17 of the 2018 NFL season, making this the 2nd time in 4 weeks the author placed in the top 10 of the DraftKings Milly Maker), as well as won a qualifying ticket to the coveted DraftKings King of the Beach live event!
Welcome back to the Shark Autopsy Report chronicles! The chronicles deconstructs weekly winning DraftKings Milly Maker lineups of the NFL 2019 season. Over the course of the NFL season this article builds off of the “Dossier on How to Win the DraftKings Milly Maker” I wrote and published prior to week one of the 2019 NFL season. You may access the VIP article here. Deconstructing lineups that win massive tournaments such as the Milly Maker is not easy because we have to get into the mindset of the winning entrant and understand why the entrant utilized players in the lineup they used. As the author of the Shark Autopsy Report, I am here to tell you that your dreams can become reality with the right tools, lineup construction methodologies, hard work, and gumption!
The Milly Maker contest is a true tale of the tape contest that everyone in the industry knows about, discusses and writes about extensively throughout the course of the week. Many people think that lineup construction to win the Milly Maker tourney is all about constructing the most contrarian lineup possible, sometimes that is the case, but most of the times that is not the case.
Author Earns his 2nd Top 10 Milly Maker Finish!!!
Looking back upon my lineups each week, I get to see my successes and failures in my roster construction and make adjustments for the upcoming week(s) ahead. I construct my lineups using both an optimizer as well as hand crafting my lineups. My below lineup was the lineup that placed 6th in the Milly Maker and won a KOTB Qualifier in week 3, this lineup was hand crafted!
You may be asking yourself, how was I on Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Alvin Kamara stack? When I am constructing lineups, correlation is key, and this lineup was highly correlated. QB/WR1 stack is the most positive correlated stack. But in my research, I have found that running it back with the right player from the opposite team adds a layer of correlation that enhances the lineup further. So why Kamara over the likes of Michael Thomas? The Quaterback. Teddy Bridgewater is a serviceable QB in the league, but when a legendary QB is injured and the backup is asked to pick up the pieces, time and time again the Running Back, if is an excellent pass catcher becomes a primary target of choice in the game and this game was of no coincidence, making the stack that much more correlated. The stack itself had a total ownership of 8.67%. My model showcased that Kamara was in a highly favorable matchup against a defense that I had projected for the week as the 3rd worst defense against pass catching RBs. The secondary stack that was used was Julio Jones and Austin Hooper against the Colts. In my model I had the Colts defense as a bottom of the league team against WRs and lower tiered team against TEs, plus at the market rate that was projected on Julio and Austin, it just made too much sense. Originally in the lineup I had at the WR3 spot Devin Smith of the Cowboys, who was in a favorable matchup on paper, but I pivoted off of him to Phillip Dorsett and that choice paid massive dividends for me. Julian Edelman came into the game somewhat hobbled and had strong feeling with the rapport Dorsett had with Brady that Dorsett would be in for a favorable game and could see more targets.
In my research for the “Dossier on How to Win the DraftKings Milly Maker”, I uncovered hidden secrets that catapulted lineups up the leaderboards and into the top 10 of the contest, but I also took note of the top DFS players that repeatedly made it into the top 20 lineups multiple times during the course of the season. Their lineups always contained a primary stack, but what I did find interesting was the secondary stack they used, more often they used a WR/TE stack in the secondary stack of the lineup.
In the construction of this lineup, I paid specific attention to ownership and the types of players that go off against types of defenses and how line play helps QB stay upright to find open WRs or opens gaps for RBs.
Little Bit about the DFSArmy
For those of you who are new to Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) or are looking for that one DFS site that can propel your play to new heights, then look no further, the DFSArmy is a top notch, second to none DFS site that can provide you with the tools to construct quality DFS lineups like the pros use. At the DFSArmy, we pride ourselves on the ability of our coaches to teach and provide our members with the methodologies, processes, tools and thought processes to become an equitable DFS player, who can grow their bankroll with proper bankroll management and turn your everyday Joe into a DFS Pro. DFSArmy covers all of the DFS sports from the main 4 (MLB, NBA, NFL & NHL) to PGA, MMA, Soccer and College FB and BB. Additionally, DFSArmy has its own Sportsbook team to help you with sports betting. The DFSArmy is an all-in-one Fantasy Sports and Sportsbook site that you can’t afford to not be a member.
Synopsis of the Shark Autopsy Report Chronicles
Lineup deconstruction is vital to DFS’ers success and it’s why all of the DFS provider sites have members writing about, but other sites articles lack substance and are simply generic. Take a look at those articles and draw your own conclusions. As the author of the Chronicles, I am trying to break the code and help my readers do the same. The Chronicles will showcase: the Vegas closing lines and how those Vegas lines contributed to the winning lineup construction, is it vital to max enter,
The Shark Autopsy Report is different from the other DFS site’s lineup breakdown articles that you can read online, as there are a multitude of these types of articles. The Shark Autopsy Report dives deeper than those other lineup deconstruction articles showcasing: the top ten winning lineups (position-by-position), the number of lineups the top 10 DFS players entered into the contest, the average amount spent by position in the winning lineup, top 10 player ownership percentages, and week-to-week salary distributions of the top 10 lineups to determine if there’s salary correlation amongst the top ten lineups, to help better predict winning lineup construction in future weeks.
DraftKings $4.25M Milly Maker Contest
As DFS players, fish and sharks alike, we are so attracted to the light shining down from the DFS Universe of the $1M dollar first place prize in the DraftKings Milly Maker contest, and we pump a multitude of our bankrolls into these contests annually. Because of this, I understand why DFS sites are analyzing these winning lineups. It should be part of your repertoire as a DFS player to revisit the prior week’s winning lineups, not just for the Milly Maker and Sunday Million contests, but all of the contests you entered to see how the winning lineups were constructed. Additionally, you should be looking at your own lineups to determine WHY certain plays in your lineups went off and WHY other plays did not. This will ultimately make you a better player, but it will help you determine trends you may not have otherwise noticed if you were not reviewing over past week’s lineups.
Week 3 Milly Maker Winning Lineup
Vegas Closing Lines
If you want the most comprehensive breakdown of how closing Vegas lines predictively determines future results, read my “Dossier on How to Win the DraftKings Milly Maker” in conjunction with each week’s Chronicles article.
The winning lineup utilized a QB/WR1 stack of Jameis Winston at QB and Mike Evans at WR, in the New York Giants v. Tampa Bay game which had closing Vegas lines of 48 total points and a -5.5 spread. The actual scores in this game greatly exceeded what Vegas predicted to be the slate’s third highest scoring game total and the one point difference beat the spread on the game of 5.5 which helped this game exceed fantasy value. Mike Evans beasted in the first half of this game with 3 TD catches and finished with 190 yards receiving on 8 receptions and netted the +3 bonus for over 100 yard receiving. Having Julio Jones and Keenan Allen in this lineup netted the winning lineup 124.4 total DK points for the WR positions on $20.9K total salary for the three WRs, which produced a 5.95x value!
The highest projected Vegas line game was the Kansas City v. Baltimore game and that game didn’t disappoint in total actual game score beating the Vegas projection by 9 points. But, fading the QBs, WRs and TEs in that game actually helped you craft higher optimal lineups. It really does pay to do research for each slate and fade the crowd think.
When I was making lineups in week 3, the best plays for me at RB were Alvin Kamara, CMC and Phillip Lindsay. In my opinion and one that goes against many pundits out there (many would have Zeke as the top RB in the league), Kamara is the best RB in the league and can change a slate at any point and this reigned true in week 3 and at 3.39% ownership against Seattle’s 23rd ranked defense against a pass catching RB according to my GPP model. WOW!!!! That is simply too good for me and running it back with Kamara in my 6th place Milly Maker of my Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett primary stack was so advantageous!
Stacking is the Most Advantageous Strategy
To make serious gains on your competitors and move up the leaderboards, you must learn how to construct lineups utilizing an artful stacking process! This doesn’t mean that you stack every game on the slate, but to choose those games you have researched and believe may go off on that given slate. In the winning Milly Maker lineup, the entrant utilized a stack that went off in the 3rd highest projected closing Vegas lines game of Winston and Evans primary stack, but the secondary stack of CMC and Carolina’s defense was one of the top secondary stack on the slate. Do we need to go crazy with our stacking combinations with game stacks and multiple stacks within one lineup (what I refer to as Stacks of High Society) on most slates? Maybe, but maybe not.
Stacking proves once again to hold true in the winning Milly Maker lineup and it continues to showcase that you must stack up your lineups in these tournaments.
Game Theory
Game theory is the analysis of strategies for dealing with competitive situations where the outcome of a participant’s choice of action depends critically on the actions of other participants. Game theory, strategy and quantitative analytics are a passion of mine since I was a Mathematics and Statistics undergrad.
What wins the Milly Maker when a player explodes the prior week? FADE THAT PLAYER! Then when that player duds and entrants get off of them the following week of a dud, top DFS players attack and load up on them after a dud week.
I didn’t go into this in too much detail last week, but look at the above underlined statement of the definition of game theory. As DFS players we are strategists, but what separates the top DFS strategists from the pack is the development of risk diversification and strategy thinking. At DFS Army we are the best DFS content provider in the industry for a reason, we have amazing coaches, content, and tools for you to build lineups, but that is just your starting point. To become a master strategist, you have to be open to doing research that exceeds that of the content provided to you and more than anything else, you have to take calculated risks (risk diversification) to create artfully crafted lineups that will win top heavy GPPS! There’s simply no other way around it. In the Milly you need to think differently and fade crowd think!!!
When crafting your GPP lineups and determining the stacks you want to utilize, look at the types of defenses the QB and offensive weapons are going against, and determine what spots are most advantageous.
Time and time again a slate will not play out as the DFS pundits believe it to play out! This was highly evident in my 6th place winning Milly Maker lineup. It’s advisable to utilize the information from the pundits and mold that information with your research for solid lineup construction.
Mining for Defensive Diamonds to Achieve Glory
In last week’s Shark Autopsy Report Chronicles I posed the following question, will the winning Milly Maker lineup in week 3 roster the highest salary defense? Dallas is NOT a good fantasy defense and that proved vitally true in week 3, they were the highest priced defense going up against the worst team in the league. Did they meet value, nope, and those that rostered them in their GPP and Cash lineups (because they were playing Miami and had a closing Vegas line spread of -22.5) were hindered by the inability to spend up at RB and WR. I faded Dallas and New England defenses in week 3, and my GPP and cash game lineup construction had defenses who were in absolutely great under the radar positions to hit and exceed value based upon my research and not that of primarily based upon closing Vegas lines. In the Dossier, I provide you with the framework to find the Defensive diamonds in an ever so vital and highly variant position.
The art of roster construction reigns true on every slate, and there are defensive diamonds on EVERY slate. Honestly it is not all about a scientific approach to constructing the winning Milly Maker lineup, it takes as much art as it does science to create a lineup that will be in the top 10! How does the author know, well in week 17 of the 2018 NFL season, the author placed 6th out of 294K entrants in the Milly Maker and last week the author placed 6th again out of 250K entrants in the Milly Maker! Research and Quantitative Analysis are the backbone of my DFS being and I love seeing those lineups that are hindered by a defense that is the highest priced on the slate going up against a Miami!
Time and time again, under the radar defenses can absolutely win you a Milly Maker and this reigns true each and every weekly slate, and week 4 will be no different!
Fortune Favors the Bold
Don’t take this the wrong way and think that I have to be ultra-contrarian to win a GPP contest, you don’t, and in fact rostering a contrarian play just to roster them without any significant research to back up your roster choices is a losing proposition! The Kamara play was a bold play in my 6th place winning lineup, but was it really though, look at the research and facts and assess if you still think it was a really bold move. Was it bold because no of the pundits were on Kamara? Sure, but if you are going to construct lineups based upon crowd think then your lineups will place right where the crowd is. Calculated risks are what win GPPs and they may be bold to the pundits who weren’t on them originally, but if you believe in your research and can substantiate the bold play based upon your research, then is it really a bold play? Maybe it is the most logical play that is the diamond in the rough!
Tools I Utilize Weekly
I utilize every tool available to me from the DFSArmy’s vault of successful tools and coaches. I develop my own player projections and system that I utilize in the construction of my cash and GPP lineups. In addition to my proprietary NFL GPP model, I mainly utilize the following two DFSArmy tools I utilize the most in my thought processes and research of each slate is the FFootballGeek’s NFL Weekly Geeks Picks and the coaches notes. The other tools I utilize are the WR vs. CB breakdown chart (by the way, I develop this tool on a weekly basis), DFSArmy’s Research Station, FFootballGeek’s Early Look Vegas Lines Podcast, the Wolfpack podcast and the Player’s Club Podcast.
Entries to Glory
The number of times I have heard from many in the industry, most are fishes in the seas of sharks, that you need to enter the max number of lineups (150 max) to win the Milly Maker, doesn’t make me pity them it makes me want to educate them further. Now for some education, during the 2018 NFL season 94.1% (16 of 17 weeks) of the time the winning Milly Maker entrant DID NOT max enter the Milly Maker contest! Now fast forward to current, and last week was only the second time the winning entrant of the Milly Maker max entered the Milly Maker. Amazing to think that only 2 times in 2 years that a entrant with 150 lineups won the Milly Maker. Can you win with less than 150 entries, the answer is unequivocally YES and in fact 94.7% of the time this reigns true! I will take those odds every day of the week and fade those (I don’t care who the pundit is, I will fade their opinion 7 out 7 days of the week) opinions that believe you can only win with 150 entries. Can you win with a single bullet, YES YOU CAN AND I’VE SEEN IT DONE, but it’s much harder.
To My Weekly Readers
I want to thank my weekly readers for reading the Shark Autopsy Report Chronicles this NFL season, it means a great deal to me and the DFSArmy!
As the chronicles article matures over the course of the NFL 2019 season and more data is captured, the article with evolve into a dynamic tool that you should utilize as part of your research arsenal to make you a better DFS player.
To conclude this installment of the Shark Autopsy Report, the DFS Army was started based on the concept that bring high-level tools, projections, and information to average players would allow them to compete on a level playing field with the DFS pros that have been dominating the industry for years. Check out our full Wall of Wins to see countless other screenshots from regular players utilizing DFS Army tools and advice to take down 6 figure prizes on a regular basis. Sign up as a DFS Army VIP today to take your game to the next level and start competing like a pro.