Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! We’re short on time this week, so instead of the normal chit chat, I’m going to get straight to the point. Let’s get to it!
As always, if you haven’t already, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite, as this article will directly tie into it. If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.
Indianapolis Motor Speedway
Playoff picture
Since we’re short on time, I’m just going to copy and paste this information:
tldr; look for those four (Bowyer, Suarez, Newman, and Johnson) to put up solid finishes today. Bowyer has the easiest shot though, so look for him to just stay solid and not take any risks. Johnson, however, might need to take a risk or two to get himself in, especially if one or more of the others have some issues.
Lineup construction / correlation
With only 160 laps to go around, our dominator needs are on the low end again, so I’d primarily go after one dominator in all formats today on both sites. On DraftKings I don’t mind using a few two dominator lineups, but don’t get carried away. If you go that route, be sure that Harvick, Kyle Busch, or Keselowski are the primary dominator. I probably wouldn’t try stacking any of them.
Hybrids
They all look great with their starting positions, but Hamlin and Elliott lead the way here (especially Hamlin). The track history (and how they’ve been in 2019) tells me that Truex and Larson should be kept in GPP today, and I don’t really like their chances of dominating. I’d put Hamlin and Elliott several notches above them today.
Dominators
Harvick gets the pole, which is always nice here, and he doesn’t have overly stuff competition starting around him. Look for him to dominate at least the first stage, possibly more if they get it done on pit road. He’s a primary dominator option in all formats today (go here in cash).
Behind him, as usual, is Kyle Busch, followed by Keselowski. Both are legitimate dominator threats for the mid/late-race, and while I would normally be happy to stack drivers like that, they’re not exactly cheap and we only have 160 laps, so I think today is going to have just one of these three in the winning lineup (should they dominate, of course).
Kurt Busch, Logano, and then Bowyer are next in line.
Studs
While I don’t love him today, I really like Jones in all formats, especially GPP where he may not stand out all that much. He’s expensive enough not to be a slam dunk play, but he could still pay off like he did last week (don’t expect him to score quite that high though).
Blaney, Johnson, and Almirola are next and I like them in that order.
Value studs
Newman is the clear cut winner in this category, and you can default to him in all formats. He has a high chance of being in the winning lineup today, and though he might be chalky, he could very well be the chalk we have to eat today.
DiBenedetto is close behind him and makes another fantastic option in this category. If you can grab both in cash, go for it, but if you can only choose one, try to get Newman first.
Suarez is my favorite GPP pivot (he’s also fine for cash), and I love using him either stacked with Newman/DiBenedetto or used as a pivot to them. With so many other great options starting behind him, I think Suarez may see reduced ownership, but he can easily outscore all of them (with the exception of Newman, which is why I’m fine stacking them).
After that, it’s Byron, Buescher, Menard (more on him in a sec), Buescher, Austin, Stenhouse, and then Bowman.
For Menard, I know it’s really scary to want to play him starting 2nd, but remember that he’s been fast here and has the history to back it up. He’s finished in the top-10 multiple times, and a surprise top-5 would put him in the winning lineup at his price. Nobody will be playing him starting 2nd, but if he and his team can put together another solid race here, he could be the guy that ties together the winning lineup. Don’t sleep on him!
Value
Ty Dillon and Chastain are the primary cash options here. Pay up if you can, but if you can’t, I don’t mind using Chastain (or even one of two super-punts) in cash if it means you can load up on guys like Harvick/Denny.
Punts
Speaking of super-punts, I like Sieg and Yeley the most and don’t mind them in all formats (I like Sieg to have the higher ceiling, so use him first if you can).
After that it’s Cassill, Kligerman, then Sorenson/Smithley and McLeod/Bilicki. Nothing special with those six.
Stacks
Like last week, this isn’t exactly a “stack happy” track, so I wouldn’t really focus on forcing manufacturer stacks here.
Pivots
We have a lot of great pivots today, and since I’ve already mentioned who I like, I’ll do the normal and just highlight the best areas to attack.
The value studs stand out to me, especially Suarez, so I would focus on them first. After that, I would look at the dominators, and the rest are sort of just tied (value, punts, and studs).
Closing thoughts
This was the fastest CtC I’ve ever done, but hopefully, you guys still found it helpful. Remember that this is a bit of a boring/predictable race, so we’ll need to eat some chalk and make some good pivots to really stand out. Don’t go making lineups with 4-6 GPP pivots, as that’s not likely to work out. Good luck today, and enjoy the race if you’re watching it (if not, I hope your favorite NFL team does well, as long as they aren’t the Jaguars. Go Chiefs!!)