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NASCAR Calming the Chaos 9/1/19 – Darlington

Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos!  After a small break (for the cup series at least), we’re back at it this week at one of the coolest races of the year; the Southern 500 / throwback weekend at Darlington!  If you’re not familiar with it, no other track is shaped like Darlington is, and no other track will host a field full of cars with throwback schemes on them.

To spice things up even more, this is the second to last race of the regular season, which means we have some playoff implications to consider here (next week too, for that matter), so we’ll go over all of that along with the usual stuff.  Let’s get to it!

As always, if you haven’t already,  be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite, as this article will directly tie into it.  If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.

Darlington Raceway

Like I mentioned earlier, Darlington is a unique track and there’s no other track that directly compares to it (like how we can compare tracks like Kansas, Texas, and Chicago for basic 1.5-mile tracks).  That said, the closest is probably Dover, so you can look at races there to get a few hints.  Mostly, though, Darlington stands on its own, so we’ll need to study those races and best figure out how everyone will do here with the 2019 cars.

Playoff picture

Before we dive in, let’s quickly take a look at the current playoff standings for the drivers without any wins:

For the most part, most of the guys on the top half are locked in, but they do still need solid performances to hold their spots and avoid beating themselves.

For the others though, mostly Newman and Suarez, they are dangerously close to the bubble and will need to be on their game to hang on, especially with how close Bowyer (and Johnson, to an extent) are.  Look for them to be both offensive (taking some extra risks) and defensive (hard to pass).

The others, while not exactly close to the bubble, can still get in with a win, so look at all of these guys to take some extra risks, especially ones like Austin who has had a pretty bad year and isn’t afraid to wreck somebody to cheese a win (the same could probably be said about Stenhouse, too).  DiBenedetto is racing to find himself a new ride, so look for him to try for another miracle this weekend as well.

Lineup construction / correlation

While there aren’t quite as many laps here as there were at Bristol (which had 500), we do have a fair amount (367 to be exact), so we’ll still need our dominator points.  I would look for two dominators in all formats on both sites as a starting point (for both cash and GPP).  For other GPP approaches, we can sprinkle around some single dominator lineups in case we get a solo performance.  We can also go for three dominators on DraftKings, but I would prefer those lineups to just use two pure dominators and one hybrid to make up the third (basically, don’t go stacking three front-runners here…limit yourself to two at the most and use the hybrids to fill in the blanks).

Hybrids

As usual, we’ll start with the hybrids, and once again, Kyle Busch leads the way here.  Starting 33rd is just too good for somebody of his talent, regardless of the fact that they’re using a different engine and will start dead last.  Remember, money is no object to those guys, and that replacement engine is every bit as high-quality as their primary (possibly even better since they’d have given it an extra look due to the primary one having some issues).  He’ll fly by the slow cars at the start, so don’t worry about him dropping a few spots to start the race.  It’s irrelevant in the big picture.  If you’re playing cash, start your lineups here.

Truex and Hamlin are behind him, and while they’re both perfectly fine for cash, don’t take them if it means you can’t take Kyle Busch (you can easily take all three this week, which is what I’m doing for cash).

Harvick is up there too, especially since he’s coming in at a reduced price, but for cash games, I’d rather just pay up to Truex.  Definitely have him in GPP though, along with these other three, as they’re among the best plays on the board today.

Dominators

Larson is my favorite option here today, as I think he has the highest ceiling of all of the front-runners.  I’d rather use the hybrids for cash though, as he’ll need to lead a significant number of laps to match what they can offer without leading at all.  For GPP though, he’s as good of an option that we have today.

After that I would say Byron/Keselowski, then Elliott, then Kurt, and finally Logano in the order in which I think they will dominate today.

Studs

It’s been a while but we finally have some drivers to look at here!  Newman stands out as the primary cash option here, but if you have some salary leftover, I don’t mind taking Jones in cash too.  Speaking of which, Jones is my favorite GPP pivot in this price range, and I think he has a really good chance of being in the winning lineup today.

Almirola is up there too and makes a pretty easy cash play if you don’t want to pay up to Newman.  For GPP though, I do worry about his ceiling, since this hasn’t been a slam dunk track for him over the years.  I don’t mind fading him in GPP in hopes that he doesn’t cross 20th today.

After that it’s Blaney/Bowman/Bowyer/Johnson but I don’t really love any of them today.  They can be sprinkled around but I don’t think we need to go heavy on any of them this week.

Value studs

At first glance, these guys don’t look very good for fantasy purposes, but I think they’re a source of some pretty solid GPP pivots.  I believe that one of them will sneak into the winning lineup today, and I don’t expect any of them to carry much ownership.

Buescher/DiBenedettoStenhouseAustin/Menard…..and then Suarez is how I would rank them (I don’t mind just fading Suarez).  I wouldn’t go crazy and cram in 2-3 of them into every lineup or anything, as I think only one of them will be able to pull it off, but definitely have exposure to these guys as they’re the kind of plays that could help take down a tournament today.

Value

Ty and Ragan are the strongest all-purpose options here, and you can default to them in cash.  McDowell is fine for cash too, but I wouldn’t take him over the other two unless you land on him last.

Hemric and Preece probably have the most upside for GPP purposes and they’re similar to what the value stud guys represent (hoping for a random top-15 or better from these two).  Chastain/LaJoie/Wallace are the other three options, in that order, and while I don’t love them, they’re in play too (though I don’t mind fading Wallace here since he hasn’t quite figured this track out yet, and it may take him another race or two to do it).

Punts

Like I mentioned in the notes, I believe Tifft is easily the best option here for all formats.  He’s been racking up all sorts of top-25 finishes and starting 32nd gives him a decent floor to go with a solid ceiling for how cheap he is now.  Honestly, I don’t think we need to go any lower than him for cash or GPP this week (unless you think he wrecks and one of the clunkers can finish inside the top-30 somewhere).

The other viable option here is Cassill, as this is one of those tracks where his skill (yes, he’s very talented) can outweigh how bad his car is.  Starting 25th looks scary, and it is, but that also means nobody will be playing him.  Don’t go locking him into a ton of lineups or anything, but if he can manage to hold his spot and move up a little at the end, he could sneak into the winning lineup.  If you use him, be sure you’re loading up with a bunch of high-ceiling drivers to go with him!

The other super-punts are the same as usual, though I guess I would give a slight edge to Yeley/Sorenson if I had to pick favorites.  I don’t really love (or even like) any of them.

Stacks

Unfortunately, this isn’t really a track where big team stacks can do a whole lot for us, I’m afraid.  If you land on some, great, but I wouldn’t go forcing them in this week for the sake of stacking teammates.

Pivots

Once again, we have a lot of great pivot options to choose from here, and I would focus on the value studs/studs as the best of the bunch (hybrids too of course, but that goes without saying).  After that, I would look at the dominators.

For the dominator setting in the DS, consider using that on the studs/value studs and taking manual control over your actual dominators to make sure you’re getting exposure to the pivots.  Like I mentioned earlier, I wouldn’t go cramming in multiple pivots into the same lineup, as it only takes one or two of them to set yourself apart.  Eat some chalk, make some bold pivots, and give yourself an honest chance of taking home some big money!

Closing thoughts

The regular season is winding down, so mind the playoff narratives and get ready for things to get a little chaotic here these next two races.  Play smart, play within your budget, and above all else, don’t forget about NASCAR once NFL starts up next week.  There are still plenty of races to go!  Good luck today, and I’ll see you all in Slack!