Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, members can reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb). For everybody else, you can find me right here on Twitter!
Though the MLB season is slowly winding down, our favorite fall and winter sports are just heating up. We’ve already had all sorts of big winners in both CFL and NFL, with plenty more to come. We’re still cranking out NASCAR content for the best part of the season, and NBA is just around the corner. Needless to say, things are going great here at the DFS Army!
Full Count Breakdown
Main slate
Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies
We’ll kick things off with what could be a fun shootout, with two talented teams facing two volatile pitchers. Of course, said pitchers have also been capable of some decent outings as well, so there’s really nothing off-limits in this game for GPP purposes. For cash games, though, I’d stick to the offenses.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Betts, Martinez
Red Sox 4 star plays – Bogaerts, Devers
GPP note – The two studs up top have surprisingly poor BvP against Vargas, so if you’re feeling bold, you could fade them in large field GPP and hope Vargas still knows how to pitch around them
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Dickerson, Hernandez, Hoskins
GPP note – When the hits start coming in against Porcello, the flood gates tend to open up quickly, so if you stack here, go big
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Next up is the New York Home Run Express taking on the Blue Jays again, this time with two fresh pitchers in 2019. It’s hard to pinpoint what to expect out of them since this will be Montgomery’s 2019 debut and it’s only Zeuch’s third start, but we can pretty much expect at least a homer or two from the Yankees here. Toronto will try to fight back though, for pride if nothing else, so don’t be afraid to grab some contrarian stacks with them.
Yankees 5 star plays – Gregorious
Yankees 4 star plays – LeMahieu, Judge, Torres, Voit, Gardner
GPP note – The lefties are in the better spot here, but these righties just keep mashing. Pretty much everybody is in play here
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Bichette, Guerrero, Grichuk
GPP note – If they can get to Montgomery early (in his 2019 debut) they might be able to do some unexpected damage, so don’t be afraid to stack them
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
Our next game is a good ol’ divisional rival matchup, as the Indians will once again host the Twins, who just love to go to other people’s houses and smack some home runs. They’ll have to get through Bieber first though, who may have finally figured out how to pitch around the long ball (he was giving up a lot of them earlier this summer). Both of these teams look to be high-ceiling options, but given the pitching matchups, it might be best to leave this one for GPP.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Polanco, Rosario (BvP), Cruz
GPP note – Tough matchup against Bieber, but they are familiar with him, so don’t overlook them for some contrarian stacks today
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Lindor, Santana, Kipnis
GPP note – Also a fairly tough matchup against Berrios, but again, they know him fairly well. Some stacks in GPP here wouldn’t be the worst way to go
Some big showdown wins already this season – plenty more to come!
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers
Similar to our opening game, we get two volatile pitchers facing off against two lower-end teams, which just screams potential value plays. Keep an eye on these starting lineups as they come out because they could very well contain a few pieces of a winning lineup.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Villar, Mancini, Santander
GPP note – It’s not Camden Yards, but these guys can randomly go off anywhere, especially if Jackson has another rough start. If you go here, go big!
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Candelario, Castro, Reyes
GPP note – Nobody likes to stack these guys, but Asher has shown some weakness, and the Tigers could certainly use a good game. Given that Asher can also pitch a gem, this makes a good place to hedge to get a little bit of both sides
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
It feels like these two teams just play each other every day anymore, doesn’t it? Anyway, we get another Braves/Nationals matchup, this time with Fried and Sanchez. Fried has done well not to allow any homers to the Nationals yet, but there is a metric ton of BvP for the Braves against Sanchez. Sounds to me like a good place to attack!
Braves 5 star plays – Freeman
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna, Donaldson, Albies, Flowers (BvP)
GPP note – Tons of BvP and familiarity against Sanchez, so these guys are certainly in play for some big juicy stacks
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Rendon, Turner, Soto, Zimmerman
GPP note – They haven’t yet figured out how to get to Fried. Will it be today? Maybe, but it doesn’t feel like big stacks are the answer here yet
Milwaukee Brewers at St Louis Cardinals
It’s just not the same without Yelich, but the season must go on. The other Milwaukee lefties will have to step it up a bit, but seeing as Vegas barely has them down for 4 runs, they’re not off to a great start. On the other side, the Cardinals have been heating up a bit, and they know Anderson pretty well, so I could see them hitting the over here.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Moustakas, Grandal, Thames
GPP note – The lefties are in the better spot here, but big stacks don’t seem as strong anymore without Yelich around
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt, Fowler, Wong, Molina/Ozuna (BvP)
GPP note – Lots of BvP for a team that thrives on knowing the matchup they’re in, which could spell disaster for Anderson and lots of fantasy goodness for us
CeeGee with a $10,000 win. He had a nice heater going this summer!
Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals
Miley and the Astros will take on Junis and my Royals here next, and even though Miley has dropped a couple of turds here as of late, I think this game favors him bouncing back more than it does seeing my Royals go off. Of course, I sure wish they would, as it’s nice for your team to beat a better team, but I’m not holding my breath. As for the Astros, the usual group is in play…you know, that group of 1 through 9.
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Brantley, Springer, Altuve, Bregman
GPP note – Junis is capable of slowing a team down, but if they can get to him early and send him packing, they’ll get multiple innings against a cruddy bullpen, which could make this a very long game for us KC fans. Anyway, if you stack here, stack big
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Mondesi, Merrifield, Soler, Dozier
GPP note – This “should” be a decent spot for this offense to bounce back, seeing as Miley looks to be regressing back to his 2018 ways, but I still don’t think big stacks are in order here. Some righty one-offs or mini-stacks could pay off, though
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
To cap off the main slate we get Williams and the Pirates facing Quintana and the Cubs, and honestly, this game just has Chicago written all over it. The Pirates offense is fairly weak right now (especially without Bell), and Williams is allowing a ton of hits and a few walks here and there, which is the kind of thing that really ignites this Chicago offense.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds, Newman
GPP note – Quintana can be hit or miss, so some stacks could be used here, but this offense is fairly weak right now, so don’t get too excited about it
Cubs 5 star plays – Rizzo
Cubs 4 star plays – Bryant, Schwarber, Castellanos, Heyward
GPP note – They’re hot and they face a pitcher who is good at allowing a ton of contact. Look for this hammer game to potentially turn into a slate bulldozer
Late slate(s)
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
To kick off the late slate(s), we’ll start with Manaea and the Athletics facing off against Lynn and the Rangers. This one is pretty interesting. On one hand, we have two offenses that are certainly capable of hitting bombs and putting up runs in a hurry but are also very strikeout prone. To compound that, we have two pitchers that have looked pretty good lately, so I actually like this one to be a bit of a pitcher’s duel. Either way, this one screams GPP to me!
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Semien, Olson, Davis, Profar
GPP note – Lynn isn’t an easy target for these guys, so smaller exposure might be better than going with big stacks
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Choo, Santana, Andrus
GPP note – Manaea has looked sharp thus far and the Rangers can really rack up the strikeouts, so be careful here
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
Ah, Coors. Not much needs to be said here; we have two not-so-good pitchers facing off at, well, Coors, and as usual, we have a big implied total (13.5 at the time of typing this). It’s hard to call any of the batters a bad play here.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Hosmer, Garcia, Myers
GPP note – Gonzalez is always a nice target to attack, especially at Coors, and this is no different. They won’t be sneaky though
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon, Arenado
Rockies 4 star plays – Murphy, Story, McMahon
GPP note – It’s the Rockies – at Coors – against a pitcher who has three straight negative scores on DraftKings, with a whopping 28 hits and 24 runs allowed in his last 13.2 innings. YIKES!!!
Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants
Up next is the opposite of our previous game, as we get a low implied total at Oracle Park, which is of course among the most pitcher-friendly of ballparks in the league. A case could be made for both pitchers here, even Cueto in just his second start. As for the offenses, you could roll out some small stacks to tie into some of the more chalkier options or just roll the dice and go big and hope for the best.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Walker/Castro (BvP), Sierra
GPP note – Cueto is pretty fresh and looked good in his debut, so look for the Marlins to once again be fairly limited in production
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt, Yastrzemski, Vogt, Pillar
GPP note – No BvP to fall back on here, so going with lefties + Pillar looks to be one of the best ways to go…if you go here at all
A PGA win too, because why not?
Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels
It looks like we’re down another stud, as a Trout-less Angels team will face Yarbrough and the Rays. Considering how good Yarbrough has looked (for the most part, at least), I like his chances of another good outing here. It’s sort of just an average matchup for Sandoval, but never forget the kind of ceiling the Rays have, especially against a lefty.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Pham, Garcia, Aguilar, Adames
GPP note – The righties could very well go bananas here, so look to them for a high-ceiling stack
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Fletcher, Pujols
GPP note – Tough matchup against Yarbrough, and no Trout/Ohtani will make his job a lot easier. It’s hard to even say that contrarian stacks are in play here
Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners
Once upon a time (you know, back in like, May), I would have loved this spot for the Mariners, since they’re loaded with talented lefties. However, they can’t seem to get it together, but if you’re looking for a place to go that looks good in theory, here you go.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu, Moncada, Anderson
GPP note – Sheffield hasn’t been prone to giving up the homers, which is something the White Sox kind of need to go off, so smaller exposure might be best here (i.e. mini-stacks instead of big stacks)
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Vogelbach, Seager, Crawford
GPP note – If you go here, go hard with some lefties and hope they remember how to swing a bat
Another NFL winner at the DFS Army…imagine that!
Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks
Up next we have another potential pitcher’s duel, but it would seem that it more depends on which Bauer shows up. Gallen certainly has answered the call as of late, striking out a whopping 39 batters over his last 5 starts (while only allowing two homers, both to the Brewers), making him a solid option here. In contrast, Bauer has struck out 32 in his last 5 starts, giving up 7 homers in the process. Given that sort of track record, it sounds to me like some Arizona mini-stacks should be given some consideration here, if nothing else.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto, VanMeter, Aquino
GPP note – He doesn’t have a flashy name like Verlander or Scherzer, but Gallen has been a stud here as of late, making this a tough matchup for the Reds. I would avoid big stacks
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Escobar, Marte, Rojas, Avila (BvP)
GPP note – Bauer will likely either shut down this offense or allow them to have a little home run derby, so this is another great spot to hedge some lineups (stack Arizona in some lineups and use Bauer in others)
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
And finally, our hammer/showdown game features the Dodgers and Mets, with a pretty low 7.5 implied total (at the time of typing this). That’s sort of expected, seeing as Buehler is on the mound for the Dodgers, but I’m a little surprised that Wheeler (and his 5.68 SIERA) is only down to allow 4.02 runs to the Dodgers. That lineup is absolutely loaded with some potent lefties, so I can’t help but feel like they’ll play to the over here.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Pederson, Muncy, Seager
GPP note – Fairly low implied total, but Wheeler’s 5.68 SIERA over his last 5-6 starts makes me think there’s more to be had here
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Conforto, McNeil, Alonso (BvP), Cano
GPP note – Tough matchup against a pitcher they haven’t seen much of, so I don’t know that running full stacks here is the answer. Alonso has two homers against him though, that’s interesting…
And that’s going to do it for today. If you like what you saw here and want to have access to everything we have to offer on the inside, I encourage you to give us a look and get in now as the best time of the year for DFS is just heating up. Be sure to use promo code NILLY to get 20% off the normal monthly rate, for the best detail in daily fantasy sports. Just check out our Wall of Wins – the results speak for themselves. Until then, good luck today!