Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Gerrit Cole – Cole is the obvious spend up option on the slate with a matchup against the Kansas City Royals. Cole has an elite strikeout rate of 39.4% this season which is one of the league’s best. The Royals are striking out at a 22.3% rate to go along with that massive percentage of Cole’s. Cole will be the cash game anchor on this slate, as he has just ripped through his previous opponents averaging a massive 34 Draftkings points per game over his last ten games. The Royals have an implied run total of just 2.9 here making Cole the top option on the slate.
- Chris Bassitt – Bassitt is going to be my mid-range option here against the Texas Rangers. I’ve been targeting the Rangers with pitchers over the past couple of days because they can strikeout with the best of ’em. With a strikeout rate of 25.6%, I’m willing to look past the 4.7 implied run total here. The run totals are normally a bit higher in Texas just because the hitting conditions are so nice. Bassitt is coming off of a great start against the Detroit Tigers in which he scored 30.1 Draftkings points. He makes a lot of sense as a more expensive SP2 or a really cheap SP1.
- Adrian Houser – Houser can’t seem to get over $6k on Draftkings no matter how hard he tries. Many of you know that I like to provide a pitching option in all tiers, so Houser is my cheap option on this slate and makes sense to pair with Gerrit Cole. Houser doesn’t draw the greatest matchup in the Cardinals, but it’s not a matchup that will keep me from playing him. The Cards have just a 4.2 implied run total here to go along with a 22.3% strikeout rate. Houser has a respectable 24.8% strikeout rate as well. He’s averaging 14.2 Draftkings points per game over his last ten games and at this price you’ll take that type of production with the upside he provides.
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Full Count Breakdown:
Pittsburgh Pirates (+157) @ Chicago Cubs (-171)
As always, the Cubs play the lone day game on Friday’s slate. This game will feature a pitching matchup of Steven Brault and Jon Lester, so happy Lester day! Many of you know that I am one of the biggest Jon Lester haters there is, I simply don’t think he’s all that great and can get hid around with the best of ’em. I will be looking to attack bats in this game with two vulnerable pitchers and the wind is projecting to be blowing out at over 15 mph to right field. Due to the pricing being much different than the main slate I’ll let the coaches break this one down for you in slack. Also, be sure to check out our Coaches Notes/Player Picks on this game for a more in-depth look on player analysis since the pricing for a showdown slate is much different than the full slate.
-> COACHES NOTES/PLAYER PICKS <-
Atlanta Braves (+151) @ Washington Nationals (-164)
This game has quite the pitching matchup between Max Scherzer and Mike Soroka, two pitchers that I respect a ton, so I don’t know that I’ll be attacking the offenses here. Scherzer is obviously one of the best pitchers in the league and Soroka is a guy that simply doesn’t get blown up and really limits hard contact. On nearly a full slate of games, this isn’t a game that I need to be targeting batters against these pitchers.
ATL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: The Braves are an elite offense but pitching normally wins out for me and Scherzer is that good.
WAS 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Similar to the Braves side of things, there are some nice pieces in this lineup, but just not a team I want to go crazy with against Soroka.
New York Yankees (-189) @ Toronto Blue Jays (+173)
Masahiro Tanaka and Anthony Kay will be the pitchers in this game and I can’t say I have a whole lot of interest in either of them. Tanaka has been up and down all season and Kay gets an extremely tough matchup with this Yankees lineup. The Yankees have an implied run total of 6.2 runs here and are a tier-one stack for me on this slate. Kay pitched well in his first major league start against the Rays, but this Yankees lineup is a different beast.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu, Didi Gregorius
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Edwin Encarnacion, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Anyone that cracks this lineup will be in play for me, they are a top stack on this Friday slate.
TOR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero, Justin Smoak, Cavan Biggio
GPP Note: Although I don’t want to get to a lot of Tanaka, I don’t think I want to stack up against him either, there are better spots on this slate.
Minnesota Twins (-119)@ Cleveland Indians (+110)
In a game that features two great offenses, we will also see Aaron Civale and Jake Odorizzi on the mound. Civale has been very good as of late, averaging 17.9 Draftkings points per game over his last ten games. That said, I haven’t used pitchers against the Twins all season and I won’t be starting now. Odorizzi has pitched against the Indians four times this season and is averaging 23.3 Draftkings points per game in thos starts. I don’t hate getting to Odorizzi here, but this Indians offense is scary.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano
GPP Note: Even with Civale pitching well, this Twins offense is one of the better lineups in the league. I like the Twins and their 5 run implied run total as a secondary stack.
CLE 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Yasiel Puig
GPP Note: I don’t hate Odorizzi on a slate that is a little tough to find safe pitching, if you go heavy on him, don’t forget to hedge it with an Indians stack!
Los Angeles Dodgers (-130) @ New York Mets (+120)
Clayton Kershaw will take the mound here for the Dodgers after struggling in his past two starts and will look to rebound here against a Mets team fighting for a playoff spot. The Mets will counter with an ace caliber pitcher of their own with Noah Syndergaard and as crazy as it sounds I do like the Dodgers as a GPP stack here. Syndergaard has proven he can give up some big innings especially to those teams that can tattoo his fastball and this Dodgers team can do that with the best of ’em.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Justin Turner
4-star plays: AJ Pollock, Will Smith, Corey Seager
GPP Note: I really like this stack for GPPs, it should go un-owned and has the potential to put up big runs.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Pete Alonso
GPP Note: I’m not going to go crazy here against Kershaw, I think he rebounds here.
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Baltimore Orioles (+102) @ Detroit Tigers (-111)
The MLB should be thanking the DFS gods tonight, nobody, and I mean nobody would be watching this game if it weren’t for gambling/DFS, but here we are. Not only are these two bad teams, but Aaron Brooks and Jordan Zimmerman are about as bad as it gets from a starting pitcher perspective. I normally don’t say this, but if you want to pay up at both pitching spots, I don’t hate a stack of either of these teams for GPPs, but this is far from a cash game strategy.
BAL 5-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Trey Mancini
4-star plays: Renato Nunez, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Jordan Zimmerman is a gas can and their bullen isn’t much better, I don’t hate it for GPPs.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Victor Reyes, Harold Castro
GPP Note: As much as I want to stack this spot, there just isn’t any talent in this Tigers lineup, I would advise going elsewhere.
Oakland Athletics (-160) @ Texas Rangers (+148)
I wrote-up Chris Bassitt as one of my favorite pitchers on this slate and is coming off of a nice game against the Tigers. Bassitt is a very good pitcher and the Rangers are a team that doesn’t scare me even with a high implied total. The Rangers will send Brock Burke to the mound who is a guy coming off a start where he gave up six earned runs against the Baltimore Orioles. The Athletics are a tier-one stack for me on this slate.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Khris Davis, Chad Pinder, Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: The Athletics have an implied run total of 6.2 runs here and are one of my favorite stacks on the slate. The temperature will be in the low 90’s come first pitch, give me some A’s here.
TEX 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara
GPP Note: I’ll be all over Bassitt in lineups where I’m not getting Gerritt Cole, so I’ll fade the Rangers in everything but a hedge here.
Milwaukee Brewers (+111) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-121)
This is a massive series in terms of the NL Central divisional race as the Brewers have come storming back even after losing Christian Yelich for the season. They will send Adrian Houser to the mound, who I wrote-up in my pitcher’s section. It’s not the sexiest of plays but really has nice upside with a decent floor given the price. The Cardinals will send Adam Wainwright to the mound who I just don’t fear anymore, even without Yelich this lineup is one of the better lineups in the NL, I don’t hate a Brewers GPP stack.
MIL 5-star plays: Ryan Braun, Mike Moustakas
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Keston Hiura (if starting)
GPP Note: Wainwright is far from his prime and the Brewers are playing well, I don’t mind getting to them as a secondary GPP stack.
STL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong, Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: I’ll have quite a bit of Houser here, but the Cardinals do have some nice power one-off options.
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Houston Astros (-353) @ Kansas City Royals (+316)
As I mentioned in the pitcher’s section, Gerritt Cole is the best pitching option on the slate and it’s really not close. That said, he is expensive so don’t jam him in if you don’t feel it’s necessary. However, for cash games, it may be necessary. The Royals will send Danny Duffy to the mound who gets an absolutely terrible matchup against this high-flying Astros offense, no thank you on Duffy.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, George Springer
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: The Astros are close to a tier-one stack on this slate, Duffy isn’t someone that I’m afraid of, but the prices on these guys are keeping them from elite stack territory.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Don’t stack against Gerritt Cole
San Diego Padres (-121) @ Colorado Rockies (+111)
Both of these teams have an implied run total of over six runs in this game. If I had to choose one over the other it would be the Padres, although their lineup is very weak at this point in the season. Jeff Hoffman is the pitcher for the Rockies who has a massive 7.06 era on the season. The Rockies will have to deal with Joey Lucchesi who I do respect as a nice young pitcher in the majors. He’s averaging 17.8 Draftkings points per game in three starts against the Rockies this season, give me the Padres here.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond
GPP Note: As weird as it sounds, I like the Padres side better, but Story and Arenado have as much home run upside as anyone on this slate.
SDP 5-star plays: Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers
4-star plays: Josh Naylor, Nick Martini
GPP Note: I prefer the Padres side of this game, Jeff Hoffman is just not good, the Padres are a tier-one stack for me and are really pretty cheap.
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Cincinnati Reds (-115) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+106)
The Dbacks are one of those NL teams that are fighting for the NL wild-card and will send Mike Leake to the mound against this Reds team. Mike Leake isn’t terrible, but I don’t think I’ll be stacking against him here in anything other than a GPP. The Reds will send out Luis Castillo here who has been very good as of late, going for at least 20 Draftkings points in seven of his last eight outings.
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Aristides Aquino, Eugenio Suarez, Josh VanMeter
GPP Note: The Reds aren’t a terrible GPP stack, but I think there are higher upside spots on this slate.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Luis Castillo has been dominant as of late, I’ll have more interest in him than this offense.
Tampa Bay Rays (-126) @ Los Angeles Angels (+117)
Charlie Morton and Andrew Heaney are one of the better pitching matchups on the day right up there with Soroka/Scherzer and Kershaw/Syndergaard. Charlie Morton has been elite this season and isn’t one to limit a whole lot of hard contact. He had 19.3 Draftkings points in his lone matchup against the Angels this season. Heaney has pitched very well as of late as well averaging 18.9 Draftkings points per game over his last ten games.
LAA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: I just don’t stack against Charlie Morton, he knows out to pitch.
TBR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Andrew Heaney is a tough pitcher, there are better spots on this slate to stack up offenses.
Chicago White Sox (+129) @ Seattle Mariners (-140)
Dylan Covey and Yusei Kikuchi are about as bad as they come as a pitching matchup, right up there with Aaron Brooks and Jordan Zimmerman. The difference in this game is that these offenses are at least capable of putting up some runs. Kikuchi has a 5.24 era on the season and the Sox have an implied run total of 4.4 runs which feels a tad low. The Mariners have an implied run total of 5.2 which feels a bit better as Covey has a massive 7.69 era on the season.
CHW 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: I like the White Sox a good deal here and they are relatively cheap if you can’t get up to Coors or the Yankees, Kikuchi is someone I want to target.
SEA 5-star plays: Kyle Seager, Mallex Smith, Austin Nola
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Tom Murphy
GPP Note: The Mariners are really only a team I get to when they get a real gas can on the mound and that is the case tonight against Covey. They have a decent amount of upside here and are pretty cheap.
Miami Marlins (+133) @ San Franciso Giants (-144)
I was very close to writing up Sandy Alcantara in the pitcher’s section, he is coming off of a massive game against the Royals in which he scored 41 Draftkings points. This is a great matchup for him in a big ballpark similar to his home ballpark. Tyler Beede makes some sense as a cheap SP2 option as well, however, I would rather save some more and get down to Houser and get a little upside.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’ll just be using the pitchers, as usual for a Giants home game.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Just pitchers here, no need to get cute.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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